carpandean
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Everything posted by carpandean
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Thursday would be OK, too.
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Vancouver is winning in regulation against Arizona?
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And, of course, they'll come from behind to tie it late and then lose it in OT. Arizona will give up a last-minute goal in regulation to break a tie, giving them 30th by one point.
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The problem is that until it's locked, it is possible to be choked. Most of us would love to be talking about the improvements that we're seeing and had they gotten just one less pointless win, we would be. Instead, it's dragging out to the very end. Locking 30th will have a larger affect on the future than any improvement we're seeing.
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Assuming that the above fix is correct, then were we exactly where we were last year (51 points with 2 to go), now, then we would have 30th clinched. This team has performed better down the stretch and I would imagine that the goaltending choices were just enough to make the difference. Hopefully, it won't matter, but I do believe that it's tighter than it needed to be.
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Nolan just said that Linback will likely start against Columbus. If he starts all three and they miss out, I will place the blame squarely on Tim Murray. Playing a backup on one of two back-to-backs, especially in a game on the road, is normal for any team. To do otherwise, if going out of your way to not finish 30th. Murray can't let that happen.
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The only thing that has changed is the number of chances to lock this up. We needed one of the following three in the final six games to clinch: one regulation loss by the Sabres, one win by the Coyotes or a combination of any two OT/SO losses by either team. Now, we need the same but in the final five games. The odds are still well in the Sabres' favor, but they got a little worse last night. For example, if you think that each game has a 1/3 chance of going the Sabres' way (and the same odds would be true in the draft lottery should they finish 29th), then their odds of drafting one of McDavid or Eichel went from (1/3)^7 = 94% to (1/3)^6 = 91%. -
Well, the good news is that, of the seven "kicks at the can" (3 Sabres games, 3 Coyotes games, draft lottery) for McEichel, last night was the one that I gave the longest odds against. Unfortunately, tonight's game was second.
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Well ... he didn't win 4.
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The Rangers are the top team in the East, it took extra time to decide and they're still 12-1-1 in their last 14. Just let the game go the way that you'd expect, not be some gutty effort to beat the hottest team in the league in a race not to be the worst.
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GDT:Carolina at Buffalo 4-6-2015 7PM MSG, WGR550
carpandean replied to Brawndo's topic in The Aud Club
My ideal scenario was to have them win this one for the home fans and then to have it ended in one of the next three opportunities (2 Coyotes games and our Blue Jackets game.) So, yeah, I'm ... um ... OK ... :sick: This has to be a time where GMTM says to Nolan, "I know that you like to reward the hot goaltender with the next start, but you have to start a backup on Friday if Arizona doesn't win one before then." -
I think that he's saying that when the same team has been the worst team two years in a row, that team has never lost the first pick both years. There were three such cases, two drafted first once and the other drafted first both times. Of course, the odds are the odds, completely unaffected by previous results. Under the old system, there was a 73.2% chance that such a team would pick first at least once. Under the current system, there is only a 36% chance that they would. However, that's before the two lotteries have occurred. Now that the first one happened, if they Sabres hold on to 30th, there's just a 20% chance that they draft first in at least one (obviously, only one) of those successive years.
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Draft Lottery, what would make you more "nervous"?
carpandean replied to mjd1001's topic in The Aud Club
But a far worse chance than everyone else. :P Not possible. A team like Boston could slip out of the playoffs and move up to get McDavid (extremely small chance), but then Eichel would go to the 30th place team. Jack Eichel will play for either us or Arizona. -
Well, there isn't any replacement, at all, because they pick one number and that's it. If they reveal teams down through #3 and nobody has moved, then the conditional probability of the 30th team winning, given that the first 17th-28th did not is, as you guessed, 0.2/0.35. Technically, though, the winning team has already been determined, so there is no longer any probability involved (no more random event, just an unknown constant.) As for the previous history of 30th place teams, two things have changed in recent years that make that information even less relevant: 1) the probability of the 30th team picking first has been reduced from 25% to 20% 2) the 4-spot limit was eliminated The chance of the 30th team picking first used to 48.2%, now it's 20%.
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Yeah, that was the one that Nolan said after the Washington game that Hackett would probably start against Boston, but then after the Boston game, Lindback said that he knew the night before that he was starting again.
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Draft Lottery, what would make you more "nervous"?
carpandean replied to mjd1001's topic in The Aud Club
This. I'll be nervous as hell at the lottery if we end up 29th, but not so much if we end up 30th. There would definitely be some teams that I wouldn't want to see him go to, but based on the odds, I fairly certain that it will be someone else. I don't think the actual gap is that big. McDavid is whichever of those two you like more and Eichel is the other one. Sure, you'd prefer one, but either one would give you perma-grin for the foreseeable future. -
Except that Nolan has been riding the hot goalie all season, even in back-to-backs. People have been saying that GMTM can't tell him to lose on purpose, which is true, but I've been saying for a while that he could at least have asked him to follow the normal custom, as you say.
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In won't be cruel gods if we don't win the lottery, it will be the 4:1 odds (at best) against it. As others have stated, Eichel is the main prize; McDavid is the possible bonus. My excitement for clinching 30th would be far more than my excitement for winning the lottery if we do (likewise, if we finish 29th, the excitement for either Buffalo or Arizona winning the lottery would be far more than for knowing which one won it.) Both would be great, but the gap from #3 to #2 is much more than the gap from #2 to #1.
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I truly hope for the fans and the team, that one of the four shots before then (or two half shots) ends it. Nobody wants to see that arena if it's still unsettled on Saturday. Carrion wasn't an obvious enough name for my dense self.
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As long as all the bolded happens, they're still OK. Must be 3-0-0, 0-3-0 3-0-0, 0-2-1 or 2-0-1, 0-3-0 to not get it. Certainly still possible, though.
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fixed
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It's what we should have been seeing for a while. Don't know if GMTM finally reached his limit or if Nolan decided to be a team player (he's not going to coach to lose, but seeing what young prospects have to offer is very common in this team's position), but I'm glad that they did. Three games left, I could see one each for Lindback, Makarov and Hackett (unless Johnson comes back.)
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Even with last year's odds, I wouldn't be thinking about the benefit of losses until the very end (if things were not to progress much from this year.) With the new odds, might as well cheer for wins to the end.
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Yeah, the first "he's also 19" in this thread was in reference to Zadorov, not Larsson.
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After a quick turn of events this weekend, there could be a long, slow road to the end: Off today One shot Monday (Hurricanes @ Sabres) One shot Tuesday ('Yotes @ Flames) Off Wednesday One shot Thursday ('Yotes @ Canucks) One shot Friday (Sabres @ Blue Jackets) and none of that pays off: One shot at 7:00pm Saturday (Pens @ Sabres) Final shot at 9:00pm Saturday (Ducks @ 'Yotes)