Straight Talk: 1st Line: what do Sabres really have on this roster?

[mjd1001]

1 minute ago, Pimlach said:

I am a Tuch fan.   

This is the best assessment of him I have read here.  I myself could not come up with all the data that backs your assessment.  By so many measures he one of the better player on this team.  

Of course I am disappointed in his recent two bad turnovers that both led to goals against.   Despite those mistakes,  @pi2000 just put up some stats (TRpm and +/-) that shows Tuch is still one of the better players on the team.  

All that said, Tuch is almost 30 and going forward  will have to rely more on experience and vet savvy than speed.  He strikes me as a guy that will figure this out and still be a key contributor for several years to come.  

He left one of the best teams in the league to play for the home town team and has been a good soldier.   But right now Tuch should be asking for a trade, not a long term extension.  I think this next big life change that he is facing is a distraction for him.   A poor GM like Adams let this negotiation go for too long and Adams faces getting less for him or overpaying to keep him.  .  

He can go to any contending team and play middle 6, still score 25+ goals, still kill penalties, and enjoy the game.  He should be asking to go and I hate to say it, but this team is still miles away from contending for a Cup.  Just getting the 7/8 spot  in the conference is not close to getting to the top 4-6 teams in the league.  

I just wish we had a GM that could either get the right value for him or sign for just 2-3 year extension - But we have Adams. 

Tuch SHOULD be a slightly better version of Zucker on a good team going forward into his early 30s....as you said playing 'middle six' minutes.  If he can make that adjustment to his game where he doesn't rely on his declining speed.

As you said, it doesn't look like this roster would be the best place for that (for the next few years if he stays here, he will be asked to do TOO much, more than he would likely be capable of doing into his 30's).

[PerreaultForever]

7 hours ago, DarthEbriate said:

And they've needed that second top-line guy for several seasons.

If the current Sabres regime remains in power, and provided they throw enough money at him and doesn't go JJP, just take Tuch off the top line and replace him with Doan. (Which opens the spot for Rosén in the top 6.) Rinse and repeat.

Oh definitely. I am quite sure in Adams mind he's thinking "I don't need anybody here. I have Helenius, Kulich back, Östlund and Rosen so more than enough forwards and Mrtka will play D, Levi will fix goaltending and then we will surge. Don't need a thing. " Some people will believe that is true too. 

[LGR4GM]

1 hour ago, PerreaultForever said:

Oh definitely. I am quite sure in Adams mind he's thinking "I don't need anybody here. I have Helenius, Kulich back, Östlund and Rosen so more than enough forwards and Mrtka will play D, Levi will fix goaltending and then we will surge. Don't need a thing. " Some people will believe that is true too. 

Some ppl believe the earth is flat but we don't need to mention them when talking about things. 

I don't think anyone left cares much about the pipeline which has players years away.

[PerreaultForever]

1 hour ago, LGR4GM said:

Some ppl believe the earth is flat but we don't need to mention them when talking about things. 

I don't think anyone left cares much about the pipeline which has players years away.

idk, I think there's still some believers here. Not many, and some might even be afraid to post, but there's always some. I guarantee you that is Adams mindset though. If it wasn't, if he actually wanted to win now, he'd have made moves already. 

The other theory I have, which is highly possible, is Terry has blocked ANY transactions and Adams is a lame duck and the plans for next year are already under way for Jarmo or whoever. I mean there's no logical explanation for the goalie thing unless everything's frozen. 

[Taro T]

10 hours ago, mjd1001 said:

I think Tuch is still the best winger on this team (I'm couting Tage as a part time center/winger). The team would be worse without him. He's one of the top 25 wingers in the leauge to me RIGHT NOW.

But I think he is starting to show the very first hints of 'aging past his prime'.

Unless you are a mega superstar (and even some cases with them), we know that MOST forwards (and the averages in the numbers show this) have their peak offense production years between the ages of 24-28.  Yeah, some guys hang on to that high level a bit better than others, but once you get to 29-30, your best years are usually behind you (just what the numbers say).  This isn't to say they can't have a great/bounce back year once or twice past 30, but normally production has already peaked.

So how does this relate to Tuch?

Hes 29 now. If the Sabres made the playoffs he woudl be 30 during this years playoffs.  The FIRST year of any new contract for him has turning 31 at the end of year 1 of that deal.

-Its only 1/4 season, but to my eye, he seems to be having more 'lapses' where he makes bad plays. A handful of more games compared to the last few years where he's just not as noticable.  Not much, but enough to notice.

-His numbers: Over the last 3 previous seasons, he averaged 33.4 goals per 82 games and +13.8 per 82 on a negative team. This year, his 82 game pace is 26.3 goals and a +2.9.  Not a huge drop, but noticable.  

His PP numbers are dropping. The last few years he went from 20 PP points, to 11 PP points, to 11 PP points again, and now hes on a pace for 5.8pp points.

-His ice time is down. He hasn't been injured this year, but he has the lowest average ice time this year of any other year (or partial year) since he has been in Buffalo.

Now for the actual skill based numbers (and remember, he seems to be healthier this year than in the past):

His shot speed:  93.4 his first year with the Sabres. Down to 89.2 and 89.7 the past 2 years. This year?  85.1

Top skaing speed: 23.2 mph 3 years ago (when he was 26).....23mph 2 years ago (when he was 27)....22.6mph last year (when he was 28)....and now this year 21.83 this year.  In terms of MPH, a drop of more than 1mph is a LOT in the NHL.  He is losing speed, that is 100% true.

How about his skating "speed bursts over 20mph"?  This year 1.25 per game (at age 29).  How does that compare to the most recent years? 1.75 per game last year (age 28), and 2.36 per game the previous 2 years (since he was with the Sabres, ages 26-27)

-Tuch relies SO MUCH on his speed and skating. His shorthanded breakaway goals. His forchecking (which is the best part of his game). As he loses skating speed, that is going to impact the best part of his game the most. Its staring to happen now. Its only going to get worse as he gets older.

Again...Hes 29, going on 30 this season. The FIRST year of any new contract for him has turning 31 at the end of year 1 of that deal.

This is not to say he's not one of the better players on the team.  But the 'eye test' to me says his game is SLIGHTLY off compared to the past (just slighly), and the more you dig into the numbers, especially his skating, it shows you those numbers are, without a doubt, on a downward trend already.  For me it further reinforces that I'd like him back here, but not on a big dollar, long term deal.  

His "raw skill" numbers in terms of top speed, how often he uses his speed, and his shot are already in clear decline.  The production is showing signs of a decline, as are his deeper analytics.

If, and I realize this is an "if", the recent trends in his skating and production continue, you might be regretting a $10m+ deal with Tuch...not in 5 to 6 years from now, but possibly in year 2 of the extension.

Good post.

Wondering how much of his dropoff this year is because of age and how much of it is knowing in his heart that it probably doesn't make sense for him nor the Sabres to keep this marriage going and that has to be depressing for someone that's married their "dream girl" and it just doesn't work.  Expecting it's a bit of both, but don't have a good feel for how much of either.

[LGR4GM]

3 hours ago, PerreaultForever said:

idk, I think there's still some believers here. Not many, and some might even be afraid to post, but there's always some. I guarantee you that is Adams mindset though. If it wasn't, if he actually wanted to win now, he'd have made moves already. 

The other theory I have, which is highly possible, is Terry has blocked ANY transactions and Adams is a lame duck and the plans for next year are already under way for Jarmo or whoever. I mean there's no logical explanation for the goalie thing unless everything's frozen. 

I agree, I think it's a transition year.

[PerreaultForever]

6 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

I agree, I think it's a transition year.

I think it is now. 

I do think when they hired Ruff Terry and Kevyn thought they would start winning. That they had the pieces in place. Terry may have decided now Ruff was a mistake and he will get the blame. Whether or not Adams goes with him remains to be seen but I certainly hope so. 

Mind you, if Terry still controls the next guy it really won't matter and might even get worse.