What are our players worth?

[dudacek]

Most people don’t expect Adams to make a big move because Adams.

But there is no shortage of Sabre names in the rumour mill.

This thread is a place where we can discuss some of them, what similar assets have been traded for in the past, and what we might expect in return.

To me, Byram is clearly on the table, as is pick #9 and any of our pipeline players.

I think we also have to consider the possibility of Tuch and Peterka being moved due to their value and contract situations.

And I think Quinn, Samuelsson and UPL could be had due to last year’s poor play and the need to upgrade their roster spots.

[dudacek]

Pick #9

Not a lot of top 10 picks have been traded in recent years.

• In 2022, pick 7 was traded (along with a 2nd and 3rd) for Alex Debrincat
• In 2022, pick 13 was traded (along with a 3rd) for Kirby Dach
• In 2022, pick 13 was traded for Alexander Romanov and a 4th
• In 2021, pick 9 was traded (along with cap dumps and a 2nd) for Conor Garland and Oliver Ekman-Larsson
• In 2021, pick 12 was traded (along with another 1st, a 2nd and Adam Boqvist) for Seth Jones and pick 32
• In 2021, pick 13 was traded (along with a 2nd and Robert Hagg) for Rasmus Ristolainen
• Matt Savoie, 2 years after being picked #9 for Ryan McLeod also works as comparable

Going a little further back

• In 2017 pick 7 was traded (along with Tony DeAngelo) for Derek Stepan and Antti Raanta
• Jordan Staal, Jeff Carter were acquired for packages built around pick 7 and pick 8
• Corey Schnieder was acquired for pick 9, straight across

[dudacek]

I think Jack Quinn is a tough call for all GMs after the season he just had.

• Is he a 60-point top-six potential break out you can buy low on?
• Is he a 35-point one-way winger who’s going to bounce around and wash out of the league in a few years?

Exact comparables were a little tough to find

• Kaapo Kakko was traded for Will Borgen and a 3rd. He had similar production over a much longer runway in terms of NHL games. Same position, better size, less skill?
• Phillip Tomasino was traded for a 4th. He’s a similar player with a lesser pedigree. I think his value at the time of the trade reflects what Quinn’s will be next year if we keep him and he shows less than he did this year.
• Alexander Holtz went one spot ahead of Quinn in the same draft, has a similar profile and has shown a lot less as a pro. He was traded for Paul Cotter, a useful younger bottom-sixer. To me, that’s the floor on Quinn’s current value.
• Alex Newhook for a late 1st and an early 2nd. To me, this is probably the best comparable to where Quinn is right now. Newhook is of a similar profile and had similar production at a similar point in his career to where Quinn is now.
• Kirby Dach had produced at a lesser rate than Quinn over 3 NHL seasons when he was swapped for pick 13. That might be the absolute ceiling for Quinn’s value, but I doubt he gets that much. Dach is a big centre which demands a premium that Quinn will not.

I think I’d be most interested in moving Quinn if he was the “young player” component in a package offer for a good player, like the Chytil piece in the J.T. Miller trade.

[DarthEbriate]

1 hour ago, dudacek said:

I think I’d be most interested in moving Quinn if he was the “young player” component in a package offer for a good player, like the Chytil piece in the J.T. Miller trade.

This is the logical choice to move. If the brass is good with some center spine of Norris-Thompson-McLeod-Kulich-Krebs, it’s going to push someone to right wing, then he’s the one guy that doesn’t fit in the lineup in a bottom 6 winger role.

You can keep him as a 4th line Kotalik PP/shootout specialist, but you’re going to need to play much better team defense to ensure many more overtimes and shootouts. Thus far, that has not been his deployment. 

[dudacek]

The market for players of Alex Tuch’s profile and stature is pretty well established: a 1st, plus an equivalent prospect as a rental at the deadline. Brock Nelson is the most recent example.

In a best case scenario, Tuch’s size, speed, contract and playoff experience all may add up to him being the hottest asset on the market and push that up. The Timo Maier haul (a 1st, 2nd and 3 prospects) is a best-case scenario.

Some might argue he’d offer a bigger return if you trade him now. I guess that’s possible, but I didn’t come across an example, at least for a player of Tuch’s profile.

Assets like him rarely get moved for anything other than futures, so a hockey trade would be a surprise.

I think given team needs, I’d be trying to re-sign him for as long as that door stays open.

[Pimlach]

4 hours ago, dudacek said:

Most people don’t expect Adams to make a big move because Adams.

But there is no shortage of Sabre names in the rumour mill.

This thread is a place where we can discuss some of them, what similar assets have been traded for in the past, and what we might expect in return.

To me, Byram is clearly on the table, as is pick #9 and any of our pipeline players.

I think we also have to consider the possibility of Tuch and Peterka being moved due to their value and contract situations.

And I think Quinn, Samuelsson and UPL could be had due to last year’s poor play and the need to upgrade their roster spots.

I would be upset to see Tuch and/or Peterka leave.  
 

Byram being moved seems inevitable.   Moving Quinn and Muel would not bother me.  Moving UPL, that depends on what is coming in.  

[JohnC]

6 hours ago, dudacek said:

Most people don’t expect Adams to make a big move because Adams.

But there is no shortage of Sabre names in the rumour mill.

This thread is a place where we can discuss some of them, what similar assets have been traded for in the past, and what we might expect in return.

To me, Byram is clearly on the table, as is pick #9 and any of our pipeline players.

I think we also have to consider the possibility of Tuch and Peterka being moved due to their value and contract situations.

And I think Quinn, Samuelsson and UPL could be had due to last year’s poor play and the need to upgrade their roster spots.

I don't see Tuch and JJP moved; and I would be happy if that they get under contract. 

I'm receptive to dealing Byram and would be open to dealing our first round pick in a package to get either defensive help or even a second line caliber of forward. 

A lot of people want Quinn dealt. That would be a mistake. Granted that last season he was a disappointment but he finished the season indicating a glimpse that there is still plenty of upside with this young player. A would love to see a line composed with Quinn/Kulich/Peterka. 

I may be a rarity in this group but I don't want to give up on Samuelsson. When he finished the season paired with Dahlin I thought he played well and his game was consistent. 

I would have no qualms in dispatching UPL and bringing in another veteran goalie who is younger than Reimer. 

I'm not in the group vociferously arguing for a blockbuster deal/s to demonstrate a willingness to be bold. If we could add a younger Zucker type player, a rugged defensive oriented blueliner and another goalie, and with the return of Greenway, this lineup should be a tougher and grittier group. 

It's not talked about as much as it should be but, in my opinion, our biggest need is in net.  

[Pimlach]

12 hours ago, JohnC said:

I don't see Tuch and JJP moved; and I would be happy if that they get under contract. 

I'm receptive to dealing Byram and would be open to dealing our first round pick in a package to get either defensive help or even a second line caliber of forward. 

A lot of people want Quinn dealt. That would be a mistake. Granted that last season he was a disappointment but he finished the season indicating a glimpse that there is still plenty of upside with this young player. A would love to see a line composed with Quinn/Kulich/Peterka. 

I may be a rarity in this group but I don't want to give up on Samuelsson. When he finished the season paired with Dahlin I thought he played well and his game was consistent. 

I would have no qualms in dispatching UPL and bringing in another veteran goalie who is younger than Reimer. 

I'm not in the group vociferously arguing for a blockbuster deal/s to demonstrate a willingness to be bold. If we could add a younger Zucker type player, a rugged defensive oriented blueliner and another goalie, and with the return of Greenway, this lineup should be a tougher and grittier group. 

It's not talked about as much as it should be but, in my opinion, our biggest need is in net.  

So you don't want to trade Quinn or Samuelsson?  Who would you trade to improve the team?   Sound like only the goalies and Byram?   

 

[dudacek]

The player on this list I struggled the most to find comparables for is Mattias Samuelsson.

There just aren’t many 25-year-old defensive defencemen with 5 years left at $4.2M period, let alone ones who have been traded.

• Alex Carrier for Justin Barron
• Dante Fabbro on waivers
• Will Borgen (and a 3rd) for Kaapo Kakko
• Olli Maatta for a 3rd
• Brian Doumoulin for a 4th

None of these guys are perfect matches. 

The contract in and of itself is actually quite good in this rising cap environment for the entire prime of a big responsible stay-at-home 2nd-pairing D. The issue is how Infrequently Mule has been that player due to injury and poor play.

I suspect there are teams who have no interest in Samuelsson under any circumstances and teams desperate enough for the concept of Samuelsson that think they can wash off the Buffalo stink.

I think the Sabres best approach may be the one they took with Cozens: find a similar depreciated asset, exchange change-of-scenery guys, and cross your fingers.

When I hear Lindy Ruff talk culture and about figuring out how certain Sabres didn’t match his preconceived concept of them over the course of the year, I think first of Mule.

I think they played him with Dahlin down the stretch to rehabilitate some value in order to trade him this summer and I think he - along with Byram - is the most likely Sabre to be moved.

I don’t expect the return to be much.

[That Aud Smell]

9 minutes ago, dudacek said:

... Mattias Samuelsson.

The contract in and of itself is actually quite good in this rising cap environment for the entire prime of a big responsible stay-at-home 2nd-pairing D. The issue is how Infrequently Mule has been that player due to injury and poor play.

[Pimlach]

5 minutes ago, dudacek said:

The player on this list I struggled the most to find comparables for is Mattias Samuelsson.

There just aren’t many 25-year-old defensive defencemen with 5 years left at $4.2M period, let alone ones who have been traded.

• Alex Carrier for Justin Barron
• Dante Fabbro on waivers
• Will Borgen (and a 3rd) for Kaapo Kakko
• Olli Maatta for a 3rd
• Brian Doumoulin for a 4th

None of these guys are perfect matches. 

The contract in and of itself is actually quite good in this rising cap environment for the entire prime of a big responsible stay-at-home 2nd-pairing D. The issue is how Infrequently Mule has been that player due to injury and poor play.

I suspect there are teams who have no interest in Samuelsson under any circumstances and teams desperate enough for the concept of Samuelsson that think they can wash off the Buffalo stink.

I think the Sabres best approach may be the one they took with Cozens: find a similar depreciated asset, exchange change-of-scenery guys, and cross your fingers.

When I hear Lindy Ruff talk culture and about figuring out how certain Sabres didn’t match his preconceived concept of them over the course of the year, I think first of Mule.

I think they played him with Dahlin down the stretch to rehabilitate some value in order to trade him this summer and I think he - along with Byram - is the most likely Sabre to be moved.

I don’t expect the return to be much.

Yes, I think Ruff was talking about Samuelsson when he talked "pre-conceived thoughts on players" or however he worded it.  

Fair or not, the non-response to the Thompson head hit was a factor.  I watched it again today and not only did he not respond, he actually backed down when challenged by Sigenthaler.   That unfortunate event aside, he also has a weak net front presence.  There is very little physical aspect to his game.     

I can't help but thinking he, like Cozens, was developed poorly.   Too much money, too much on ice responsibility, too many expectations as a leader - all at a very young age with almost no resume to back it up.   

Thanks a lot Kevyn.  

[Taro T]

11 minutes ago, dudacek said:

The player on this list I struggled the most to find comparables for is Mattias Samuelsson.

There just aren’t many 25-year-old defensive defencemen with 5 years left at $4.2M period, let alone ones who have been traded.

• Alex Carrier for Justin Barron
• Dante Fabbro on waivers
• Will Borgen (and a 3rd) for Kaapo Kakko
• Olli Maatta for a 3rd
• Brian Doumoulin for a 4th

None of these guys are perfect matches. 

The contract in and of itself is actually quite good in this rising cap environment for the entire prime of a big responsible stay-at-home 2nd-pairing D. The issue is how Infrequently Mule has been that player due to injury and poor play.

I suspect there are teams who have no interest in Samuelsson under any circumstances and teams desperate enough for the concept of Samuelsson that think they can wash off the Buffalo stink.

I think the Sabres best approach may be the one they took with Cozens: find a similar depreciated asset, exchange change-of-scenery guys, and cross your fingers.

When I hear Lindy Ruff talk culture and about figuring out how certain Sabres didn’t match his preconceived concept of them over the course of the year, I think first of Mule.

I think they played him with Dahlin down the stretch to rehabilitate some value in order to trade him this summer and I think he - along with Byram - is the most likely Sabre to be moved.

I don’t expect the return to be much.

While not disagreeing with this.  Believe the bigger issue is he has rarely been put in the position of being the 2nd pairing stay at home D and the corollaries of that is he's been asked to be the stay at home guy on the top pairing far too often and also at least from the eye test, Samuelsson - Power is a really bad combination for whatever reason and is a big part of why they don't use him as the 4.  

(And if he COULD play well with Power, then they could probably find a way to make stuff work with keeping the top 4 together while having Bernard-Dockery and 1 vet waiting for the 2 defensive D-men down in Ra-cha-cha to be ready to graduate to the show.  But he just can't for whatever reason.)

[dudacek]

The market for a player like Bowen Byram is fairly well established in recent years.

• Chychrun for Jensen and a 3rd
• Sergachev for Moser, Geekie and a 2nd
• Byram for Mittlestadt
• Hronek for a 1st and a 2nd
• Provorov (and cap space) for Sean Walker, a 1st, a 2nd, Grans
• Chychrun for a 1st and 2 2nds

I think this is a player who had a lot of GMs very interested in him 5 years ago, and who did a ton of work this season to rehabilitate his value. If a 25-point Byram coming off concussion issues can return a 60-point centre, what can a healthy, 40-point, 23-minute-a-night +11 on stinky Buffalo Byram return?

I expect the market to be strong: any team lacking a PP QB, or looking to upgrade their skill level on the back end (read most teams) will be very interested.

It feels like this is the chip Adams intends to play and one that could generate a good return.

Edited 2 hours ago by dudacek