What are our players worth?

[dudacek]

Most people don’t expect Adams to make a big move because Adams.

But there is no shortage of Sabre names in the rumour mill.

This thread is a place where we can discuss some of them, what similar assets have been traded for in the past, and what we might expect in return.

To me, Byram is clearly on the table, as is pick #9 and any of our pipeline players.

I think we also have to consider the possibility of Tuch and Peterka being moved due to their value and contract situations.

And I think Quinn, Samuelsson and UPL could be had due to last year’s poor play and the need to upgrade their roster spots.

[dudacek]

Pick #9

Not a lot of top 10 picks have been traded in recent years.

• In 2022, pick 7 was traded (along with a 2nd and 3rd) for Alex Debrincat
• In 2022, pick 13 was traded (along with a 3rd) for Kirby Dach
• In 2022, pick 13 was traded for Alexander Romanov and a 4th
• In 2021, pick 9 was traded (along with cap dumps and a 2nd) for Conor Garland and Oliver Ekman-Larsson
• In 2021, pick 12 was traded (along with another 1st, a 2nd and Adam Boqvist) for Seth Jones and pick 32
• In 2021, pick 13 was traded (along with a 2nd and Robert Hagg) for Rasmus Ristolainen
• Matt Savoie, 2 years after being picked #9 for Ryan McLeod also works as comparable

Going a little further back

• In 2017 pick 7 was traded (along with Tony DeAngelo) for Derek Stepan and Antti Raanta
• Jordan Staal, Jeff Carter were acquired for packages built around pick 7 and pick 8
• Corey Schnieder was acquired for pick 9, straight across

[dudacek]

I think Jack Quinn is a tough call for all GMs after the season he just had.

• Is he a 60-point top-six potential break out you can buy low on?
• Is he a 35-point one-way winger who’s going to bounce around and wash out of the league in a few years?

Exact comparables were a little tough to find

• Kaapo Kakko was traded for Will Borgen and a 3rd. He had similar production over a much longer runway in terms of NHL games. Same position, better size, less skill?
• Phillip Tomasino was traded for a 4th. He’s a similar player with a lesser pedigree. I think his value at the time of the trade reflects what Quinn’s will be next year if we keep him and he shows less than he did this year.
• Alexander Holtz went one spot ahead of Quinn in the same draft, has a similar profile and has shown a lot less as a pro. He was traded for Paul Cotter, a useful younger bottom-sixer. To me, that’s the floor on Quinn’s current value.
• Alex Newhook for a late 1st and an early 2nd. To me, this is probably the best comparable to where Quinn is right now. Newhook is of a similar profile and had similar production at a similar point in his career to where Quinn is now.
• Kirby Dach had produced at a lesser rate than Quinn over 3 NHL seasons when he was swapped for pick 13. That might be the absolute ceiling for Quinn’s value, but I doubt he gets that much. Dach is a big centre which demands a premium that Quinn will not.

I think I’d be most interested in moving Quinn if he was the “young player” component in a package offer for a good player, like the Chytil piece in the J.T. Miller trade.

[DarthEbriate]

1 hour ago, dudacek said:

I think I’d be most interested in moving Quinn if he was the “young player” component in a package offer for a good player, like the Chytil piece in the J.T. Miller trade.

This is the logical choice to move. If the brass is good with some center spine of Norris-Thompson-McLeod-Kulich-Krebs, it’s going to push someone to right wing, then he’s the one guy that doesn’t fit in the lineup in a bottom 6 winger role.

You can keep him as a 4th line Kotalik PP/shootout specialist, but you’re going to need to play much better team defense to ensure many more overtimes and shootouts. Thus far, that has not been his deployment. 

[dudacek]

The market for players of Alex Tuch’s profile and stature is pretty well established: a 1st, plus an equivalent prospect as a rental at the deadline. Brock Nelson is the most recent example.

In a best case scenario, Tuch’s size, speed, contract and playoff experience all may add up to him being the hottest asset on the market and push that up. The Timo Maier haul (a 1st, 2nd and 3 prospects) is a best-case scenario.

Some might argue he’d offer a bigger return if you trade him now. I guess that’s possible, but I didn’t come across an example, at least for a player of Tuch’s profile.

Assets like him rarely get moved for anything other than futures, so a hockey trade would be a surprise.

I think given team needs, I’d be trying to re-sign him for as long as that door stays open.