Kotalik

[LabattBlue]

I was thinking as part of a package deal at the trade deadline, not as someone grabbed with an offer sheet.

 

Mair has decent skills in both ends of the rink, but is also willing/able to hit and, when necessary, fight anyone who isn't a true heavy-weight (well out of his weight class.) Stupid penalties aside (more of a recent thing), he plays with high intensity every shift, has enough skill to put in some goals and can spark a team when down with a good scrap. Simply put, he's gritty, but not generally a liability (again, penalties aside, which I hope they are addressing.) Given the flexibility that he gives you, I'd say that he's a good value at $750k.

My only problem with Mair is that he has too many games where he forgets what his role is and wants to be more of a finesse player than a grinder.

 

He's the kind of guy that when you look at the score sheet, you should see 3 or 4 hits to his credit each and every game. That being said, he's by far not the biggest problem on the team.

[LabattBlue]

By the way on Kotalik...

 

I trade him at the deadline. IMO the Sabres are not going to pay him 3+ mil a year(nor should they). He's just another Sabre who has reached his peak level and unfortunately that peak level has only rarely approached where it should be based on talent level.

 

He will not make a difference in terms of the Sabres making the playoffs or not and he will not make a difference in terms of them winning or losing a playoff series.

 

I don't think a 3rd round pick or an slightly above average prospect is out of the question for Kotalik.

[inkman]

That being said, he's by far not the biggest problem on the team.

fixed :thumbsup:

[LabattBlue]

fixed :thumbsup:

:oops:

[nfreeman]

By the way on Kotalik...

 

I trade him at the deadline. IMO the Sabres are not going to pay him 3+ mil a year(nor should they). He's just another Sabre who has reached his peak level and unfortunately that peak level has only rarely approached where it should be based on talent level.

 

He will not make a difference in terms of the Sabres making the playoffs or not and he will not make a difference in terms of them winning or losing a playoff series.

 

I don't think a 3rd round pick or an slightly above average prospect is out of the question for Kotalik.

This brings up a pretty interesting question: if (as seems likely) Darcy has decided that we're not going to offer Al a contract, is it better to hang on to him and get whatever benefit he brings for the rest of the season and (hopefully) the playoffs, or is it better to trade him for a fairly meager return?

 

There will be 19 games left after the deadline -- almost 25% of the regular season. He'll probably score 4-5 goals, not counting shootouts. 3 or 4 of the games will probably go to a shootout. If there are 3 shootouts, he'll probably score in 2 of them (if there are 4, he'll probably score in 2 or 3). We'll most likely be scratching and clawing for playoff spot and position, so every point will be important.

 

Bottom line is that I think this expected production from Al down the stretch is too valuable to sacrifice just for a 3rd-rounder or so-so prospect. Now, if it were part of a package that netted us a good NHL player or 1st-rounder or strong prospect? Different story.

[carpandean]

There will be 19 games left after the deadline -- almost 25% of the regular season. He'll probably score 4-5 goals, not counting shootouts. 3 or 4 of the games will probably go to a shootout. If there are 3 shootouts, he'll probably score in 2 of them (if there are 4, he'll probably score in 2 or 3). We'll most likely be scratching and clawing for playoff spot and position, so every point will be important.

Again, though, you don't lose everything that he would have brought; you lose the difference between what he would have brought and what his replacement in each spot that he is used in produces.

 

Let's say that we call up Mancari to finish up the season in his place as the third-line right winger. In 19 games, I'd expect Mark to be capable of scoring at least two even-strength goals (he scored one in seven games.) Additionally, someone will move into Al's spot on the PP and probably score a goal or two. Let's say that there are four shootouts and instead of, say, Kotalik-Stafford-Roy, they go with Stafford-Roy-Pominville. Kotalik and Stafford are both good for 2-3 (out of 4), while Roy and Pommer are both good for 1-2. So, a game where we would have won after two shooters (Kotalik and Stafford each get one, Miller shuts out the first two), we get one from Stafford and 50/50 from Roy. We definitely still win if Roy makes it, but we could also win if he misses. Not winning after two does not necessarily mean losing. You could make similar arguments both ways for other scenarios. So, even if Kotalik would have scored in three and Roy ends up scoring in just one, does that necessarily mean that we lose both of those points? No. Some, we lose even if Kotalik scores. Some, we win even if Kotalik would have, but Roy doesn't. And, yes, one or two, we might lose because we don't have Kotalik. So, most likely, he gives us one, maybe two points. But lets say that, in addition to scoring 2 goals, Mark comes in and plays better defense and/or takes less lazy penalties than Al would have, which prevents a goal or two against (just as good as scoring one) and helps get one more game to OT or turns an eventual OT loss into a regulation win. That, alone, is worth at least one point.

 

I say that if we can get any kind of value in return, we should take the deal.

[LabattBlue]

This brings up a pretty interesting question: if (as seems likely) Darcy has decided that we're not going to offer Al a contract, is it better to hang on to him and get whatever benefit he brings for the rest of the season and (hopefully) the playoffs, or is it better to trade him for a fairly meager return?

 

There will be 19 games left after the deadline -- almost 25% of the regular season. He'll probably score 4-5 goals, not counting shootouts. 3 or 4 of the games will probably go to a shootout. If there are 3 shootouts, he'll probably score in 2 of them (if there are 4, he'll probably score in 2 or 3). We'll most likely be scratching and clawing for playoff spot and position, so every point will be important.

 

Bottom line is that I think this expected production from Al down the stretch is too valuable to sacrifice just for a 3rd-rounder or so-so prospect. Now, if it were part of a package that netted us a good NHL player or 1st-rounder or strong prospect? Different story.

In terms of the shootouts, keep in mind that Kotalik was very good last year(5 for 12 which ranked him 13th best in the league percentage wise), but it didn't mean squat, as we lost shootout after shootout(4-9 for the year).

[Bmwolf21]

In terms of the shootouts, keep in mind that Kotalik was very good last year(5 for 12 which ranked him 13th best in the league percentage wise), but it didn't mean squat, as we lost shootout after shootout(4-9 for the year).

Yep, and a part of the reason (aside from Miller's struggles in the SO LY) we were losing is Ales was the only one scoring.