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Paul Hamilton on Ryan Miller this morning on WGR


LabattBlue

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Sport Science fact. The guy that's bigger and stronger than the guy with the same ability but smaller will beat the smaller guy many more times than not.

Like all those big, beefy runners who win marathons? :chris:

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Sport Science fact. The guy that's bigger and stronger than the guy with the same ability but smaller will beat the smaller guy many more times than not.

 

 

I've tried to stay out of this debate because I think its flawed, but I have to say something. Those in the know think if he was exhausted at all, it was more of a mental exhaustion because of the constant pressure and the fact that all the games took him out of his practice routine and Ryan is really into his routine. Who can forget the story during the 2006 playoffs of the team bus taking him only to the game even though the rest of the team took alternative means to the game? It was not a superstition but rather his need for his routine. Who knows, maybe he's a bit autistic? Any thoughts, Dwight?

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I am just baffled by the argument that he needs to weight train. He ran out of gas toward the end of the season where he played over 75 games. How about some more endurance training instead?

Maybe people should just look at the thread that shows the playoff goalies' success and their number of regular-season games played, and realize that a) goalies who play 75+ games and are strong throughout and into the playoffs are usually the exception, not the rule and b) Miller just might not be physically capable of handling a 75-game workload.

 

I'd rather have 60-62 games of solid, rested goaltending from Miller than 75+ games of average goaltending because he is fatigued but we pushed him harder than we should have...

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I've tried to stay out of this debate because I think its flawed, but I have to say something. Those in the know think if he was exhausted at all, it was more of a mental exhaustion because of the constant pressure and the fact that all the games took him out of his practice routine and Ryan is really into his routine. Who can forget the story during the 2006 playoffs of the team bus taking him only to the game even though the rest of the team took alternative means to the game? It was not a superstition but rather his need for his routine. Who knows, maybe he's a bit autistic? Any thoughts, Dwight?

Practice is where you work out the kinks and smooth out the rough edges. If Ryan felt he needed a mental or physical break and that resulted in him not being able to give his game the same practice attention it has needed in the past, then it's clear he either has to learn how to manage the bigger workload better, or play less games.

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Maybe people should just look at the thread that shows the playoff goalies' success and their number of regular-season games played, and realize that a) goalies who play 75+ games and are strong throughout and into the playoffs are usually the exception, not the rule and b) Miller just might not be physically capable of handling a 75-game workload.

 

I'd rather have 60-62 games of solid, rested goaltending from Miller than 75+ games of average goaltending because he is fatigued but we pushed him harder than we should have...

 

Actually, I look at the numbers and see that 20% of the teams had goalies play 70 or more regular season games and now 25% of the teams remaining have goalies that played over 70 games. looks like the numbers favor having a goalie play a lot. Just making a point, you can make stats say whatever you want them to.

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Practice is where you work out the kinks and smooth out the rough edges. If Ryan felt he needed a mental or physical break and that resulted in him not being able to give his game the same practice attention it has needed in the past, then it's clear he either has to learn how to manage the bigger workload better, or play less games.

 

 

I agree. was just making a point that it has nothing to do with his size.

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I've tried to stay out of this debate because I think its flawed, but I have to say something. Those in the know think if he was exhausted at all, it was more of a mental exhaustion because of the constant pressure and the fact that all the games took him out of his practice routine and Ryan is really into his routine. Who can forget the story during the 2006 playoffs of the team bus taking him only to the game even though the rest of the team took alternative means to the game? It was not a superstition but rather his need for his routine. Who knows, maybe he's a bit autistic? Any thoughts, Dwight?

 

:blink:

 

I'm sure his problem is multiple fold.

 

On the weight issue....it has been beaten dead before, but I will once again say that bigger is better. There is an artice floating around where Ryan himself said that he had no spare weight by the end of the season. Miller at the end of the year probably has 2% body fat and his muscles get eaten down when there isn't ample fat reserve. Miller would be much better served by adding 15-20 lbs in an ideal world. Maybe his body just doesn't keep the weight on. Nerves will eat away at weight, as will the "performance" itself. I don't want him to drink a 12 pack of Molson each day....I want him to eat some big protein meals, do some squats and things that will add lower body mass that can help in his position....and not worry about the freaking treadmill as much.

 

If I had a horse that looked like Ryan Miller, and still had his peak performance ability.....I would assume that it either has nervousness issues or mental problems, was overworked, or had an internal medical condition. For those that think it doesn't relate....because it isn't regulated by the FDA, horse racing is 10x more advanced in medical research and techniques. For the last 5 or so years we have been harvesting stem-cells from the fat in a horse's rear end, and injecting it into injured tendons an ligaments. What would take one year to heal through nature, or 9 months through surgery, now can be fixed in 90 days through science. When a horse runs for the Kentucky Derby, if he runs the race in 2 minutes, he wins $1.5 million dollars and is worth anywhere from $10-50 million at stud depending on his pedigree and past performance. If a horse runs in 2 minutes and 3 seconds....he loses by 15 lengths, comes in 16th out of 20, wins $0, and may be worth as little as $50,000 or zero if injured and a gelding. So before anyone wants to poo-poo the medical science of sports in relation to horses....find me another sport where 3 seconds is the difference between $50 miilion and zero. (and don't say the 40 time of a WR wiseguys).

 

Having worked in this field, I see many medical similarities in different sports. The biggest one being that of fastball pitchers in baseball. As the amount of suppliments and advanced training techniques has made players bigger and stronger, the ligaments and tendons cannot keep up the same strengthening levels as that of the muscles it works with. Usually guys become "injury prone" because their natural bodies aren't intended to throw 100 MPH fastballs on a regular basis. Why do you think closers on MLB teams almost never work back to back nights? I mean all they are doing is going out there and throwing 8-15 pitches.....what is so strenuous about that? Do you think Ryan Miller is doing more work than Kerry Wood? 60 minutes of NHL hockey vs 10 pitches and 4 minutes on the mound? You really can't compare the two, much like you can't say Miller should be skinny because a marathon runner is skinny. Miller relies on fast twitch muscle to make saves and go up and down on his skates. He doesn't really get much off time during the game either.

 

I know the horse thing is a roundabout way, but the bottom line is that any athlete cannot be counted on to perform at elite levels without rest in between those elite performances. While cardio and low fat can help you move endurance wise in a non-resistant sport, you still need storage in order to rebound for the next competition. If Ryan Miller was a racehorse, the vet wouldn't let him into the starting gate the way he looked at the end of the year. Like I have said, no matter the reason...his metabolism, his nerves, a medical condition.....the bottom line is that Miller shouldn't be relied on to play 70 games+ if he is going to physically break down like that....and that is what it is...physically breaking down, not getting skinny. If Ryan Miller was a horse, I would not make him practice as much in between games....I would run a battery of tests to make sure I am not missing something, and I would give him Ace and Gastroguard. What are those??? A tranquilizer and ulcer medication. Then I would run him once every 4-5 weeks instead of running him every 2-3 weeks like I can do with the bigger horses, because they recover much faster and don't lose all the weight.

 

I would also fire my vet after I saw the 4th sports hernia in as many years, Connolly getting misdiagnosed, Tallinder breaking his arm in the same spot twice in a year, etc. This medical and training staff isn't really on the ball.

 

I'm sure a few will find this interesting, and some may laugh, but it is all pretty much true.

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I would also fire my vet after I saw the 4th sports hernia in as many years, Connolly getting misdiagnosed, Tallinder breaking his arm in the same spot twice in a year, etc. This medical and training staff isn't really on the ball.

 

I'm sure a few will find this interesting, and some may laugh, but it is all pretty much true.

While I find your eye theory humorous I do agree with your take on the medical staff, and cannot believe I overlooked the Tallinder arm injuries when we discussed this earlier.

Actually, I look at the numbers and see that 20% of the teams had goalies play 70 or more regular season games and now 25% of the teams remaining have goalies that played over 70 games. looks like the numbers favor having a goalie play a lot. Just making a point, you can make stats say whatever you want them to.

That's spinning the numbers hard, tom, and it looks like just for the sake of arguing. Even by your definition 80% of the goalies who made the playoffs did so without playing 70+ games, and 75% of the goalies left in the second round were sub-70 game guys. So again it appears that goalies who play 75+ games and are strong throughout and into the playoffs are usually the exception, not the rule.

 

I did this breakdown last night (but didn't post because it sort of overlapped what KR and nfreeman already posted.)

 

There were 6 goalies who played 70+ games this year (Brodeur, Nabokov, Kirpusoff, Miller, Luongo and Lundqvist.) 33% didn't qualify for the playoffs (Miller and Luongo) 33% were bounced in the first round (Kirpusoff and Brodeur) and the other two (Nabokov and Lundqvist) made it to the second round. Nabokov's numbers dipped in the playoffs and Kirpusoff was chased twice

 

Of the remaining goalies, here's the total number of games played for the no.1 goalie:

 

Montreal - Price, 51 total (41 NHL + 10 AHL)

Philadelphia - Biron, 62

 

Pittsburgh - Fleury, 40 total (35 NHL + 5 AHL)

NYR - Lundqvist, 72

 

Detroit - Osgood, 43

Colorado - Theodore, 53

 

San Jose - Nabokov, 77

Dallas - Turco, 62

 

A lot more guys who played less than 65 games than guys who played more than 70, no matter how you look at it.

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While I find your eye theory humorous I do agree with your take on the medical staff, and cannot believe I overlooked the Tallinder arm injuries when we discussed this earlier.

 

That's spinning the numbers hard, tom, and it looks like just for the sake of arguing. Even by your definition 80% of the goalies who made the playoffs did so without playing 70+ games, and 75% of the goalies left in the second round were sub-70 game guys. So again it appears that goalies who play 75+ games and are strong throughout and into the playoffs are usually the exception, not the rule.

 

I did this breakdown last night (but didn't post because it sort of overlapped what KR and nfreeman already posted.)

 

There were 6 goalies who played 70+ games this year (Brodeur, Nabokov, Kirpusoff, Miller, Luongo and Lundqvist.) 33% didn't qualify for the playoffs (Miller and Luongo) 33% were bounced in the first round (Kirpusoff and Brodeur) and the other two (Nabokov and Lundqvist) made it to the second round. Nabokov's numbers dipped in the playoffs and Kirpusoff was chased twice

 

Of the remaining goalies, here's the total number of games played for the no.1 goalie:

 

Montreal - Price, 51 total (41 NHL + 10 AHL)

Philadelphia - Biron, 62

 

Pittsburgh - Fleury, 40 total (35 NHL + 5 AHL)

NYR - Lundqvist, 72

 

Detroit - Osgood, 43

Colorado - Theodore, 53

 

San Jose - Nabokov, 77

Dallas - Turco, 62

 

A lot more guys who played less than 65 games than guys who played more than 70, no matter how you look at it.

 

Thanks! And that is all the eye thing is...a possible theory.

 

 

After looking up the goalies that played 70+ on yahoo..

 

Brodeur 6'2" 215 lbs

Nabakov 6'0" 200 lbs

Luongo 6'3" 205 lbs

Lundquist 6'1" 195 lbs

Kiprosov 6'1" 185 lbs

 

Miller 6'2" 166 lbs

 

 

Hmmmnnnnn?????

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Ok...to expand this...let's look at the guys still in that played 40-60 games...

 

Biron 6'3" 163 lbs

Osgood 5'10" 176 lbs

Theodore 5'11" 182 lbs

Fleury 6'2" 180 lbs

Turco 5'11" 185 lbs

 

 

Price 6'3" 226 lbs.....yet he did have a pretty big 2nd half workload.

 

There are NO goalies UNDER 185 lbs that played 70+ games and are still in the playoffs

 

There ARE goalies OVER 185 lbs that played 70+ games and are still in the playoffs

 

There ARE goalies UNDER 185 lbs that played less than 63 games and are still in the playoffs

 

 

Anyone want to start second guessing the Sabres on this yet?

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Thanks! And that is all the eye thing is...a possible theory.

After looking up the goalies that played 70+ on yahoo..

 

Brodeur 6'2" 215 lbs

Nabakov 6'0" 200 lbs

Luongo 6'3" 205 lbs

Lundquist 6'1" 195 lbs

Kiprosov 6'1" 185 lbs

 

Miller 6'2" 166 lbs

Hmmmnnnnn?????

No problem. I don't take too much too seriously around here - but even if I don't agree with your eye theory, it has spawned some good jokes and chuckles, so it's all good either way. :thumbsup:

Hadn't thought to compare the height/weight of the six 70-plus guys. Good observation.

 

It's interesting to note that the guys who are a little more stout - namely Brodeur (and to a lesser extent, Luongo) - are the guys that have been looked at as reliable workhorses. Looking at that list it will be interesting to see how Lundqvist holds up over this round and the next (if they advance.)

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While I find your eye theory humorous I do agree with your take on the medical staff, and cannot believe I overlooked the Tallinder arm injuries when we discussed this earlier.

 

That's spinning the numbers hard, tom, and it looks like just for the sake of arguing. Even by your definition 80% of the goalies who made the playoffs did so without playing 70+ games, and 75% of the goalies left in the second round were sub-70 game guys. So again it appears that goalies who play 75+ games and are strong throughout and into the playoffs are usually the exception, not the rule.

 

I did this breakdown last night (but didn't post because it sort of overlapped what KR and nfreeman already posted.)

 

There were 6 goalies who played 70+ games this year (Brodeur, Nabokov, Kirpusoff, Miller, Luongo and Lundqvist.) 33% didn't qualify for the playoffs (Miller and Luongo) 33% were bounced in the first round (Kirpusoff and Brodeur) and the other two (Nabokov and Lundqvist) made it to the second round. Nabokov's numbers dipped in the playoffs and Kirpusoff was chased twice

 

Of the remaining goalies, here's the total number of games played for the no.1 goalie:

 

Montreal - Price, 51 total (41 NHL + 10 AHL)

Philadelphia - Biron, 62

 

Pittsburgh - Fleury, 40 total (35 NHL + 5 AHL)

NYR - Lundqvist, 72

 

Detroit - Osgood, 43

Colorado - Theodore, 53

 

San Jose - Nabokov, 77

Dallas - Turco, 62

 

A lot more guys who played less than 65 games than guys who played more than 70, no matter how you look at it.

 

 

To me, the whole argument smacks of over reaction to one year of struggling by a goalie who had a lot more pressure put on him than he had been used to. The Sabres management has repeatedly stated that they believe he is capable of playing 70 games and I believe they fully intend him to play that many again next year no matter how good the back up might be.

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Ok..looked at the #1 goalie for the 17 other teams not mentioned yet and ONLY 1 GOALIE is UNDER 190 lbs.

 

Manny Legace in STL is 5'9" 162 lbs and played 66 games, which is a lot by NHL standards.

 

Of goalies that WERE in the playoffs...

 

Gerber OTT 57 5'11" 201 lbs

Backstrom MIN 58 6'2" 196

Thomas BOS 55 5'11" 201

Giguere ANA 58 6'1" 201

Mason NAS 51 6'0" 195

Huet wAS 18 6'0" 204

 

Not in playoffs

 

LaBarbera LA 45 6'2" 196 lbs

Voukon FLA 69 6'0" 195

DePietro NYI 63 6'0" 190

LeClaire CBS 54 6'1" 200

Ward CAR 69 6'1" 200

Lehtinen ATL 48 6'4" 195

Khabibulin CHI 50 6'1" 208

Garon EDM 48 6'2" 192

Bryzgelev PHO 55 6'3" 209

Holmquist TB 45 6'2" 195

Toskala TOR 66 5'10" 190

 

Miller games played in Career

 

'07-'08 76

'06-'07 63

'05-'06 51

'04-'05 63

'03-'04 62

College 40 or less

 

 

Conclusion..... There are 8 of 30 #1 goalies that are UNDER 190 lbs..... 6 of them made the playoffs, or 75%

 

There are 22 of 30 #1 goalies 190 lbs or OVER......12 of them made it, or 55%

 

BUT

 

of the 6 goalies UNDER 190 lbs that made the playoffs, only 1 (Kiprosoff), played more than 62 games, and Mika is no longer with us.

 

 

Ryan Miller was in the "comfort zone" the past 4 years and rewarded the team with a Calder Cup trip and 2 ECF finals.

 

While only 30% of #1 goalies are under 190 lbs, when limited to 50-75% of games they can be just as effective or better than their 190lbs+ counterparts in the games they play, yet are limited in the amount they play.

 

Double Conclusion: If the Sabres sign Miller to an extension, they better find a solid backup to limit Miller to 55-60 games per year. Is Miller worth franchise $$$ if he plays only 55-60 games? That is the question. The numbers say NOOOO! The guys making that money are bigger guys that can take on the added workload. The majority of players the size of Miller look to be very-good goalies with a bit of journeyman to them. Some have cashed big contracts and played larger numbers of games in the past, but most are of the 1a variety.

 

Miller looks like a nice $4-5 million goalie that can play 60 games or so for you, and you should invest another $1.5-2 million in a top backup. If the Sabres give miller the $6-7 million expected, they must be prepared to pay for the backup as well, or they may be making as big of a mistake as letting Drury go.

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To me, the whole argument smacks of over reaction to one year of struggling by a goalie who had a lot more pressure put on him than he had been used to. The Sabres management has repeatedly stated that they believe he is capable of playing 70 games and I believe they fully intend him to play that many again next year no matter how good the back up might be.

No, it's not overreaction. The FO (along with the fans) wanted to see how he would handle that kind of workload, and he didn't handle it well. He just might not be built for that many games. This year's goalie class is showing that the heavy workload goalies are few and far between. Again, there is nothing wrong with a goalie who plays 60-65 games and still has a lot in the tank for the playoffs.

 

As for your second point, Lindy completely contradicted that in the end-of-the-year presser:

 

Ruff on whether he wants to see Miller play 70-plus games:

 

"Ideally, no (to 70-plus games). It was a very trying season for him, and you don?t know what you?re going to get out of your goaltender until you go there. Hindsight is always a tough place to go. I think he lost some quality practice time in a real tough schedule. In February and March, he couldn?t take three days to practice (the little things)."

 

LINK

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The numbers for this year support the theory that Miller was overplayed for his size. I am going to try and find players in the past 5 years that break the mold, like Kiprosoff. When you look at it with a sample size of 30 teams....and there is not one smaller goalie that was both a workhorse in the regular season and a deep playoff performer....that needs to be addressed. It is too big of a sample to be a goof. Miller has done it for the Sabres in the playoffs, but was limited in the regular season both times. The guys who do both are big guys. There is always an exception, and I'm going to look for some, but to dismiss the data is foolishness.

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The numbers for this year support the theory that Miller was overplayed for his size. I am going to try and find players in the past 5 years that break the mold, like Kiprosoff. When you look at it with a sample size of 30 teams....and there is not one smaller goalie that was both a workhorse in the regular season and a deep playoff performer....that needs to be addressed. It is too big of a sample to be a goof. Miller has done it for the Sabres in the playoffs, but was limited in the regular season both times. The guys who do both are big guys. There is always an exception, and I'm going to look for some, but to dismiss the data is foolishness.

If those numbers hold an accurate and predictable pattern (of course there will be exceptions) then one would have to take the next step and wonder how well Enroth (5-9/5-10, 174-180, depending on which website you believe) will hold up over the grind of an 82-game season.

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If those numbers hold an accurate and predictable pattern (of course there will be exceptions) then one would have to take the next step and wonder how well Enroth (5-9/5-10, 174-180, depending on which website you believe) will hold up over the grind of an 82-game season.

 

He'd be a good guy to get the other 25 games from Miller!

 

OK...first little guy I thought of was Belfour. He is 5'11" 182 lbs. More of a sparkplug build, but meets the weight requirement. These numbers blew me away.

 

 

Year Regular Games Playoff Games

 

'90-91 74 6

'91-92 52 18

'92-93 71 4

'93-94 70 6

'94-95 42 16

'97-98 61 17

'98-99 61 23

'99-00 62 23

'00-01 63 10

 

 

Come on now.......the 3 times he goes over the 60ish range into the 70's and they get tossed early each time?

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Stanley Cup Goalies

 

2007 Giguere 6'1" 201 lbs vs Emory 6'1" 203 lbs

2006 Ward 6'1" 200 lbs vs Roloson 6'1" 180 lbs *** played 41 regular season games

2005 N/A

2004 Khabibuhlin 6'1" 208 lbs vs Kiprusoff 6'1" 185 lbs *** played 38 regular season games

2003 Brodeur 6'2" 215 lbs vs Giguere 6'1" 201 lbs

2002 Hasek 5'11" 177 lbs *** 65 regular games vs Irbe 5'8" 190 lbs *** 51 RS games

2001 Roy 6'2" 190 lbs *** Roy played over 63 games three times in career (65+67+68) and was eliminated by the 2nd round each time... vs Brodeur

2000 Brodeur vs Belfour *** 62 games

1999 Belfour** 61 games vs Hasek***64 games

1998 Osgood 5'10" 176 lbs*** 64 games vs Kolzig 6'3" 230lbs

1997 Vernon 5'9" 170 lbs*** 33 games vs Snow 6'3" 200 lbs

1996 Roy vs Vanbiesbrouck 5'8" 176 lbs*** 57 games

1995 Brodeur vs Vernon ***30 games

1994 Richter 5'10" 190lbs***68 games vs McLean 6'0" 182 lbs*** 52 games

1993 Roy vs Hrudey 5'11" 195 lbs*** 50 games

1992 Barrasso 6'3" 210 lbs vs Belfour*** 52 games

1991 Barrasso vs Jon Casey 5'10" 155 lbs*** 52 games

1990 Ranford 5'11" 185 lbs*** 56 games vs Moog 5'9" 180 lbs*** 46 games

 

 

There you have it. Even the best in the game like Roy and Hasek were limited to 60 or so games for the most part. In the last two decades, there is NOT ONE GOALIE LIGHTER THAN 190 LBS TO MAKE IT TO THE STANLEY CUP AND PLAY MORE THAN 64 REGULAR SEASON GAMES.

 

Someone print this F'r up and send it to the Braintrust at the Arena. I don't want to come here and bitch for the next 5 years.

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Wow, good stuff. I was thinking about doing the research on the Cup winners, but didn't want to even bother with the Cup runners-up.

 

To add a point to your research - in 05-06 Cam Ward played all of 30 regular-season games before grabbing the job in the playoffs (28 in Carolina, 2 in the AHL) so combined with his playoff run, he played a grand total of 53 games that year.

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Weight doesnt have anything to do with it..Its skill......And heart... at that level..

 

Really?

 

When plugging a 4x8 area.

 

IMO, the more you can plug it, the curve for skill and heart goes down proportionally.

 

Afterall, if they can find the perfect specimen to plug it 100%, what skill and heart do you need.

 

Bigger does help.

 

Even with an inch here or there, with good positioning, do you think that some of those outside shots get deflected away?

 

There is a reason why they standardized the equipment...

 

<_< <_<

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Wow, good stuff. I was thinking about doing the research on the Cup winners, but didn't want to even bother with the Cup runners-up.

 

To add a point to your research - in 05-06 Cam Ward played all of 30 regular-season games before grabbing the job in the playoffs (28 in Carolina, 2 in the AHL) so combined with his playoff run, he played a grand total of 53 games that year.

 

 

I found 1 guy.....Grant Fuhr in 1987-88 played 75 regular season games at 5'11" and 188 lbs, and I don't think anyone would call Fuhr skinny. That is it!

 

Billy Smith would only play 40-45 games a year with the Isles and then would play the whole playoffs. Chico Resch and Rollie Mellanson got the other 35-40 games a year.

 

 

If Ryan Miller is going to play 70+ regular season games and still lead the Sabres to the Stanley Cup, he will join Grant Fuhr as the only goalie to do it in modern NHL history.

 

On that team with Fuhr....

 

Gretzky

Messier

Kurri

Anderson

Tikkanen

Simpson

Huddy

McTavish

McSorley

Beuekeboom

Lowe

 

and let's not forget Dave Hannan and Craig Muni

 

 

 

Good people of the court......I rest my case.

 

And he might be blind and light in the loafers...(OBJECTION!)

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