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Everything posted by IKnowPhysics
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Respectable Kings fans do exist, but they get diluted by: Lots of other stuff to do competing for their time and dollar (this is a common LA problem) When the Kings are winning, fair-weather or non-fans there to see the hot show in town because its fashionable to be seen there (this is also an LA problem; finals make it ridiculous). Opposing fans that have transplanted to LA. Those issues are created by: Year-round decent weather in a city with many other recreational activities. The "This town loves a winner" attitude of an enormous city with many sports teams combined with Hollywood narcissism. Huge fraction of transplanted residents. Do note that ticket prices skyrocketed after the '12 Cup win. I know many, many longtime season ticket holders that now only go to 5-10 games a year. I think Vegas shares the bolded traits with LA, but doesn't have the other sports teams competing yet. If Vegas can huddle around the team like its theirs, they can organically develop a strong fanbase. But if they treat it like a redheaded stepchild of the Casinos, that's what it'll be, and it'll get walked all over by Chad from NYC that's a Rangers fan who happened to be in town for a bachelor party and Bob from Topeka who doesn't like hockey that much but was in town for a trade show and got comp tickets from a sponsor.
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This article is to analytics as George Clooney is to Batman. A poorly directed, laughably weak attempt at best.
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I'ma be honest, any list that puts Bergeron, Marchand, and Pastrnack in "Tier 1" and Nicklas Backstrom, Ryan Getzlaf, and Leon Draisaitl in "Tier 3" doesn't really convince me of its legitimacy. Then to group players using arbitrarily placed dotted lines and then count the (small) numbers of players in each group for each team isn't a good statistical analysis. Then try wedge that weak-ass correlation into causation and say wishywashy ###### like "What’s missing from most of those teams at the bottom are Tier 1 players. It’s hard to get far without one ...But having one MVP-calibre player isn’t enough. ...They’re an important piece, but they’re not the only piece and that’s why this kind of analysis is important. It shows how crucial it is to build a core of great players..." He even contradicts himself: "The bottom line is that this league runs on star power...But ... Star power is the start of a good team, and it’s what makes a great team, but they need support around them to become a championship team." So you need great players. But you also need lots of good players. But how those are defined is aribtrary (and highly debatable).
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Jack Eichel Contract Extension: Talks Occuring
IKnowPhysics replied to WildCard's topic in The Aud Club
Nah, risk of poor late term asset management. Eichel could still be productive after age 92. 112 years x $952M That way, even if Jack's life span exceeds the oldest human to ever live by 10 years, we'll have him locked up. And if things don't work out, that $8.5M AAV is gonna make him pretty sweet trade bait in 2129. -
Jack Eichel Contract Extension: Talks Occuring
IKnowPhysics replied to WildCard's topic in The Aud Club
72 years x $600M It'll be a steal when the cap goes up. -
Maybe Alexandre Grenier for Rochester.
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Tatar and Pearson have similarish-stats for LW; they make less than Kane does now, but mostly because they're still on their post-ELC contracts. JVR is coming off a $4M x 6yr contract is due for a big raise. Saad might be the closest comparable player stats-wise and he signed a $6M x 6 deal in 2015. Drouin just signed for $5.5M x 6; Gaudreau last year for $6.75M x 6; Steen (age 33) just signed for $5.75M x 4. But this is all anecdotal. It's not what we want to pay him, but what he's worth on an open market, and probably more accurately- what his agent believes being a UFA could net him. Let's look at real data. Money: Here's the short list of LW contracts in the last 4 years that make $6M+. Here's the list of LWs contracts in the last 4 years that make $5M-$6M (including Kane now). Term: Not many LWs get 7+ year contracts. Lots of mid-range guys, some not as good as Kane, get 4-5 year contracts. Kane's potential peers seem to get 6 years. An aggressive signing to keep Kane would be $6.5M x 6 years.
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I don't overstate his off ice whathaveyous like many in the media, but if you told me there was a CBA-kosher method of dropping a contract in case of legal disaster, I would be more adamant about max term and fair pay. He's a special player that can contribute at a championship level, but I don't want to risk hamstringing the team cap for years because a bar room brawl went south. Make no mistake, he should be a Sabre, but some assurance somewhere for the good of the team would be nice.
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Sabres interested in Kevin Shattenkirk...yes or no?
IKnowPhysics replied to Sabre fan's topic in The Aud Club
Well, he did grow up in New Rochelle. It's likely that the Rangers were his favorite team and he's giving them a hometown discount. Many players actually shy away from big market media. Edit: Also, more cap space for Draisaitl. -
Marco Scandella/Jason Pominville traded to Sabres for Ennis/Foligno
IKnowPhysics replied to Brawndo's topic in The Aud Club
At least from judging their performance the past three-ish years, this is true: Buffalo got the two best players in the trade. -
Frank Seravalli @frank_seravalli 38m Talked to Shattenkirk camp. He hasn't decided where he will sign yet, reports otherwise are premature.
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Marco Scandella/Jason Pominville traded to Sabres for Ennis/Foligno
IKnowPhysics replied to Brawndo's topic in The Aud Club
It's now been rebuilt to a not suck status- maybe. We deserve contender status. -
4th among Rochester Americans all-time in GP, 5th in points. I remember him being a potential Sabres callup in NHL 2000.
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Effectively, that's what Detroit did. He started in the offensive zone, no joke, 73% of his starts. Vanek's goals for '16-'17. Almost all tips and jams:
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Marco Scandella/Jason Pominville traded to Sabres for Ennis/Foligno
IKnowPhysics replied to Brawndo's topic in The Aud Club
My god, I had already forgotten about Adam, Porter, and Flynn. After putting that on the ice, I can see why the NHL changed the draft odds. I mean, the NHL us, but I get it. -
Marco Scandella/Jason Pominville traded to Sabres for Ennis/Foligno
IKnowPhysics replied to Brawndo's topic in The Aud Club
...but if it did... -
Marco Scandella/Jason Pominville traded to Sabres for Ennis/Foligno
IKnowPhysics replied to Brawndo's topic in The Aud Club
Hotness. -
Sabres interested in Kevin Shattenkirk...yes or no?
IKnowPhysics replied to Sabre fan's topic in The Aud Club
Scandella-Ristolainen McCabe-Shattenkirk Beaulieu-Bogosian Depth: Antipin Fedun Falk Nelson Gorges Guhle Shattenkirk is still worth serious consideration. mostly because we have no NHL-ready right-shot defensemen besides Risto and Bogosian. He'll improve the defense (even if he's "weaker in his own end," he's better than any replacement we currently have), improve the powerplay, and let the young guys develop in Rochester (also improving Rochester's roster). You want to see Housely thrive? Give him the tools to succeed on D. -
Marco Scandella/Jason Pominville traded to Sabres for Ennis/Foligno
IKnowPhysics replied to Brawndo's topic in The Aud Club
The only song on Alexander Nylander's workout playlist right now: -
Sabres interested in Kevin Shattenkirk...yes or no?
IKnowPhysics replied to Sabre fan's topic in The Aud Club
Yes, overpayment usually occurs, especially in the case of the most talented free agents. But it's a method to acquire players/talent/assets that does not involve returning assets in exchange. They only cost money/salary cap. Teams overpay for the privelege of not having to trade a house to address their own team's weaknesses. There's real utility in that, and it's annoying that the UFA market has been reduced so much. -
Sabres interested in Kevin Shattenkirk...yes or no?
IKnowPhysics replied to Sabre fan's topic in The Aud Club
Who does he think he is? Mike Babcock? -
Sabres interested in Kevin Shattenkirk...yes or no?
IKnowPhysics replied to Sabre fan's topic in The Aud Club
Don't do that. Don't put two righties on the power play point. If anything thing run one each on PP1 and PP2 and utilize them the same way. But don't put them together if you want to have good puck movement and quick point shots. -
Jack Eichel Contract Extension: Talks Occuring
IKnowPhysics replied to WildCard's topic in The Aud Club
I think 8x8 would be fair, 8x9 is fair. Anything more than 9 means a cap hit that's top-seven in the league. Even 10 is almost within bounds, but is reallly ballsy for a kid- and at that point they're riding everything -the whole economics of the team- on his potential. If Eichel doesn't work out to the highest order at 8x10, you just spent 27% of the value of the franchise, a crippling cap hit for the next forever years, a tank campaign, and all of the fan base's hope on nothing. Kopitar makes 10. Ekblad makes 7.5. McDavid may get 13.75, but McDavid has hardware and hates Edmonton.