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IKnowPhysics

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Everything posted by IKnowPhysics

  1. But with, you know, Sabres colors.
  2. Lulz. Even after making my avatar, I still can't get enough of that vine.
  3. And that player was Grayne Wetzky,
  4. And then two weeks later, when they lose against another Canadian team, all the defeat ____tions.
  5. Yeah, he got ###### on. Also reminds me of Will Forte on Conan as the Buffalo-riding Ted Turner: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hHZuIETVEIo
  6. I had heard that too. I'm enamored by the one-two-three punch of Eichel-Reinhart-Girgensons. Great two way ability. Could be like having three Joe Pavelski's of varying bullishness. I think I missed all this. I just decided to jump in with an NHLe update without knowing I was being summoned. Apologies, I stealth linked it twice up there somewhere. Here it is explicitly: The first post is here: http://forums.sabrespace.com/topic/22787-current-carrion-hockey-league-standings/?p=644457 The meaty post with the corrected NHLe method is here: http://forums.sabrespace.com/topic/22787-current-carrion-hockey-league-standings/page-52?do=findComment&comment=644774 The mathy explainies is here: http://forums.sabrespace.com/topic/22787-current-carrion-hockey-league-standings/?p=644781 The short version: NHLe averages all players that make the jump from juniors/college/AHL to NHL, but the top draft choices -the best prospects- perform better than that average. It's likely due to a) being better, b) getting better opportunities, linemates, and more ice time, and c) better situational usage for scoring points. The normal NHLe doesn't accurately account for the abnormally elite prospects' rookie years. But if you check back on that link, I proposed a way to correct for that, looking at the history of each of the top five draft picks taken since Crosby. In subsequent posts in that thread, I explained how I came about it and posted some raw data for the interested. If you have any questions, let me know. The method is a little ham-handed compared to some fancy stats, but it does seem to work reasonably well, at least for our fun consideration.
  7. Sabres blueline in two years. All day, erry day.
  8. MacKinnon's NHLe was 40 points before he knocked in 63. The corrected NHLe would have been 61 points. His point totals also regressed in juniors this past year, down to 1.38PPG. Not sure what's up. But he does have 2 points in 1 AHL game. So he's got that going for him, which is nice. I think he will, as long as he earns his quality opportunities and usage.
  9. Looking at his last two years, Reinhart's NHLe is 37 points, but the corrected NHLe is up around 48 points.
  10. Take note, I made a math error: Eichel's new NHLe is 60 points, still behind McDavid at 61. I used an NHLe of 0.44 (AHL) instead of 0.41 (NCAA) for Eichel. My bad. The corrected NHLe for Eichel is 66-77, with a zany high ceiling of 92 points.
  11. Well, we can look at player comparisons to see what's possible in terms of comparing the rest of the team or league. Examples: Crosby finished his rookie campaign with 102 points, good for sixth in the league (that was the year Thornton and Jagr pulled away from the pack with 125 and 123 points). Crosby led all other penguins by at least 44 points (Gonchar, Recchi, LeClair were next highest with 58, 57, 51). So that's possible. The same year, Ovechkin finished ahead of Crosby with 106 points, good for third in the league (behind the aforementioned). The next best Capitals were Zubrus, Halpern, and Willsie with 57, 44, and 41 points. Also impressive. Patrick Kane finished with 72 points in 82 games, which put him at 32nd in the league in scoring, but it made him the Blackhawks point leader ahead of Sharp, Toews, and Lang with 62, 54, and 54. Stamkos finished with 46 points, mostly playing second line minutes behind Lecavalier. His sophmore year he would rocket up to 95 points (5th in the league) with Vinny gone. It's unlikely that a rookie takes the scoring title, IMO, especially with the overall downturn in points lately. But these kids are good, and their comparables and stats say it's possible that they could both land top 20 in scoring as rookies. If top 20 is the bar, that'd be a 70+ point rookie season according to this year, which is certainly within the realm of possibility based on the corrected NHLe.
  12. Went back and did a little more math. Eichel finished his season strong with 71 points in 40 games. That puts his NHL equivalency points at 64 (up from 57 calculated in January). Using the analysis method I posted back then, it's possible that with good usage and opportunity typical of a high draft pick, Eichel could post an NHL rookie point total around 70-82 points. He's actually surpassed McDavid, whose NHLe is 61 points. But it's possible that rises to 73-93 points based on my corrected NHLe. If Eichel can truly be regarded as a #1 overall pick in any other year, stats say it's not out of bounds to consider his rookie ceiling near 97 points. Now, these high-end totals for Eichel and McDavid would effectively lead both the team and league in points, and there's legitimate questions about whether that's possible, especially in a downturn in total NHL scoring.
  13. The NHL retired Marty Biron's number.
  14. Well, if he can't wear #99, he can always wear #00. Or maybe 2, 7, 11, 14, 16, 18, or 39.
  15. If I remember right, Jersey retired the Gretzky in NHL 99.
  16. For me it was the Jason Pominville trade (April 3rd, 2013). Before this point, I still had hope that we could crawl our way out of ninth in the East with hard work and good asset management. Even with Ruff fired, and my considerable respect for Ruff as a good coach, I held on to some hope of finding a capable replacement coach. Trade-wise, it was the trade deadline and we had just moved Leopold and Regehr. This was a year after moving Goose. Each of these previous trades were explainable with "asset management" with expiring contracts, but moving Pominville, who was the captain at the time, a year before his contract was up, was the sign that management had committed fully to the tank. It was also the first major piece of the middling "core" to be dismantled, if you don't count the Roy for Ott swap. Over the following calendar year, the players to be traded out of Buffalo would be, in order: Sekera, Vanek, Miller, Ott, Halak, Moulson, McCormick, McNabb. That was full time tanking, and the Pominville trade was the point of no return. The only logical conclusion following that trade was to blow the whole thing up as quickly as possible and get as many elite draft picks as possible- and I think both Regier and Murray have done a masterful job achieving that interim goal.
  17. I got laid last night, so there's that.
  18. Well, let that be a learning opportunity, kids. If you come across as an , no one will want to hear what you have to say or want to spread that information to others, regardless of how correct it is.
  19. He's in full Pierre McGuire casual dress.
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