Archie Lee

I like Kulich and Kozak (and Krebs) and I am excited about their futures. So, I am not criticizing the original post or dismissing the notion that these players will potentially be important pieces going forward. I just think this is similar to what we did with Cozens when he was 19-21 (and Quinn, Peterka, Benson, Power, Levi). When a young player has a good game or does something well, we tend to project a near future where they continue to do that thing well and them building on it by improving in other areas. That next level of improvement doesn't always happen though, or it doesn't happen as quicky as hoped/needed, or the development isn't linear. I'm not advocating for the trade of any specific young player. However, unless we are prepared to be content with awaiting the year where through patience alone the team's combined level of talent, age, and experience, reaches a critical mass that pushes us into the playoffs, then some of these young guys need to be traded.

I think as general statements, all that you say here is fair and accurate. But, I also think it is a touch (just a touch) dismissive of how bad our environment is for goalies. Just take the end of last night’s game and the save that UPL had to make with 2 seconds left (on a scoring chance that never should have occurred). It’s fair to say that #1 goalies do make saves like that. Game to game though, you really can’t expect a goalie to continually bail you out. UPL, and Levi and Reimer, play in an NHL environment where the onslaught is coming at some point, or at multiple points, almost every game. That’s tough. And if you have a stretch where for any reason you aren’t at your best, the results are going to be bad.

We have some young centres who are better at face-offs than the Thompson/Cozens/Mitts trio. Krebs has been good through the year. McLeod also. Kulich’s % on the night and year is not great, but he won two important face-offs cleanly. Face-offs in general have been a rare area of improvement this year.

Went to bed after 2 and just finished watching P3. Kulich was fantastic. Not just in the goals but on the draw. Faceoffs matter when they matter and he won the faceoffs leading to goal 3 and leading to getting the puck out cleanly with seconds left (though we still gave up a scoring chance). Over the course of the season we are seeing young players take turns showing us what they might be. Nothing shocking about the fact they have not been able to sustain their higher levels of play. Factor in that there are so many young players on the team and it is not a surprise we are out of it again. Prepare for the spin that “We knew it was always a possibility it would be a tough year” and that “We need to remain patient and trust the process”.

I continue to find it incredible that it has just become an accepted part of the game that a stick is likely to break at an inopportune moment.

Agreed on Levi. I’m not out on him by any means. There is still some runway. I hope he goes back to Rochester and takes them on a long playoff run. In the off-season, hopefully a new GM gets a chance to objectively evaluate our goalie depth and make a determination on whether a vet needs to be brought in to challenge for one of the spots on the NHL roster. The environment in Buffalo has not been great for a goalie, let alone a young one. Right now, the goalie from our recent past that Levi most closely resembles (to me), is Carter Hutton. His size forces him to be active. Being active can take him out of position. As you state, traffic pushes him deep, makes him small and susceptible to screens and deflections. I’m not sure he has the raw athleticism of a Saros, that will allow him to overcome this. I think he plays in the NHL. I don’t think he is the answer as a longterm #1.

My opinion is that your view of the pressure that a young goalie might, or might not, experience based on circumstance and personality, is faulty. The idea that the pressure comes off when the net is empty is flawed I think. But who knows what an individual player experiences. I recall, not from you, many “good riddance” posts when Ullmark left. UPL is tied with Ville Husso as the 20th highest paid goalie. 2-3 years from now I think his deal will be a bargain, whether for us or for the team we trade him to. His save % on the year is in the same zip code of Bobrovsky, Swayman, and Binnington. The Sabres are awful. Terribly managed. Too young. Poorly constructed. Below average coaching. UPL is not above criticism. But there is so much wrong with this organization before we get to UPL.

In an April 2023 Athletic Article (I’m not good with links), Adams addressed the topic of whether Levi would benefit from time in the minors (this was at the end of 22-23, after Levi signed and played well down the stretch). Adams said every player is different. He doesn’t want to put a player in a box. That he planned to be fearless with roster decisions. And that in Levi he saw a special person with a special work ethic and special talent. This is not a shot against Levi. I think he is a good young goalie with NHL potential who is always brought up to the Sabres in saviour moments. Like all of our young players, he has repeatedly been placed in a position to fail. Adams could not have been more wrong on his evaluation(s). He can’t continue as GM. If he does, there is simply no reason to think he has the ability to fix this.

This morning, per MoneyPuck, in goals saved above expected, he is 21st out of 27 goalies who have played at least 25 games. Interestingly, the 3 goalies who are directly behind him in this statistic are Skinner, Swayman, and Bobrovsky and right in front of him is Sorokin; historical Cup and/or Vezina contenders. So, he is keeping good company in this area.

The Flames are the anti-Sabres. They have so many quality veteran NHL players (not stars, just guys who are experienced and capable), that they can't lose for trying.

Last season, during his 6-7 game stretch with the Sabres, Rosen's most common linemates were Olofsson, Jost, and Biro. Matt Coranato was selected by Calgary one spot ahead of Rosen. When the Flames promoted him to the NHL last year, they pretty much always had him with Backlund, or Coleman, or Kadri, or Huberdeau, or two of them. This year he is playing with Backlund and Coleman. When we recalled Rosen for one game this year, we played him with Cozens and Benson.

I think this is important. As fans, we generally recognized what a sham the coaching search and hire was (regardless of anyone's affection for Ruff's historical contributions to the team, which I share). The players almost certainly saw this also. The modern NHL player has been well-trained in media-speak and to not say anything controversial. The players all have friends on other teams and they have eyes and brains. They know how a well-run NHL team is managed and they know how the Sabres are managed. Honestly, I'm at the point of thinking the players deserve credit for appearing to still care as much as they do.

I think it is fair to say UPL has become part of the problem as the season has rolled along. How many players that were slotted into top 9 roles and our top 2 defensive pairings to start the year, could we say have not been part of the problem? Zucker and Greenway? Maybe Benson, who has been mostly the same player he was a year ago; and it was never really reasonable to think Benson would be better than he is at this stage. I don't think it is fair to say that any player on this team could not be part of the solution. I'm not directing this at you @K-9. But it is worth the reminder, perhaps, that we started this supposedly make or break playoff year with the youngest line-up in the league. Our second line was average age 22 years and 1 month; and we had a 22 year old (Peterka) on line 1. Our top 4-D were average age 23 years and 9 months; and we had a 24 year old making $4 million on pair 3 (Samuelsson). Our 2 goalies to start the year? Average age: 24 years and 2 months. All together, average age of those key positions: 23 years and 4 months. Just take Dallas's defense for a moment. They have 3 young players: Heiskanen (25), Harley (23) and Lundqvist (24). We could reasonably compare them in pedigree, status and ability to Dahlin (24), Byram (23) and Jokiharju (24). We round out our top 6 with Power (21), Samuelsson (24), Clifton (29). Dallas rounds out their top 6 with Lindell, Dumba, and Lyubushkin, all 30 years of age. You can apply the same to their forwards and who they are supporting their youth with. Don't get me started on coaching. It was just not realistic that our current group of players at their current level of age and experience, were going to be a playoff team. UPL is part of that. It is reasonable for us to have high expectations for individual players, like UPL, who have been given long-term and big money extensions. Collectively though, in Adams's commitment to youth and to keeping nearly everyone, he has failed to properly support his young players and position them for success. This is all on the GM level and above.

I’m not great with links. But lots of reporting that Canucks are working hard to move Miller soon.

Yes, such trades are rare and are not likely to occur.

Agreed. That is certainly why you don’t trade it for less than value. Pettersson was a top 5. Also, the Sabres have 5 top 10 picks on their roster including 3 D-men drafted in the top 4 (two at 1OA).

UPL, like 80% of the roster, has not been good enough this year, relative to expectation. Like most players on the team, he would benefit from being in a better environment, surrounded by better players and coaching. We are not talented enough as a team to overcome our deficiencies (youth, inexperience, lack of “grit”, below average coaching in my view). UPL’s game has suffered because of this. He certainly bares some responsibility, but there is almost nobody on our roster who is truly thriving. Re: xga stats, I think they are meaningful, but they will generally not account for all factors. For example, unless I’m mistaken, they don’t account for volume of shots in a period of time. 25 shots spread over a game might result in an xga of 2.04. Take those exact same 25 shots and put them in a 20 minute period and the xga is the same (I think, somebody correct me if I’m wrong on that). But they are not the same thing. Bad teams put their goalies in bad positions more frequently and for longer and more intense durations.

I think this is what is sad. In the spring of 2023 things appeared to be turning around. The Sabres were one of the most talked about teams of the off-season. There were reports of them coming off No-Trade lists. When Erik Johnson signed, he said he asked around the league and players were high on what the Sabres were doing. Almost all of this has been squandered. The only remaining positive is that the assets that were available to Adams that would have allowed him to make this a playoff team, are largely still there (if not, in some cases, slightly diminished in value). Before this season started I was of the view that we were not a playoff team and that, nonetheless, Adams's job was safe. I never imagined we would be closer to in the running for the 1st overall pick than for the playoffs. Imagine being in year 5 of your tenure as GM and declaring this a playoff year and then having the roster and coaching staff that you built collapsing so monumentally. If Adams survives this as GM it will be indisputable proof that the Sabres are not a serious NHL team. Beyond the highest level of evaluation (we are terribly managed and therefore we are terrible), what is the point anymore?

I think people will have their lines of what is ok and what is too much. That's all fair. When it comes to any piece as valuable as a top-5 pick, it is too-simplistic to say "trade it" or "don't trade it". The question is: What are we trading it for?

This is fair and correct. We have valuable assets that we can move for middle-six players and 2nd pairing D-men. If a legit 1st line C was available in trade and the primary piece needed to complete the trade was our top 5 pick (in the 4-5 range), then it would not be crazy to do this.

Isn't it fair to say that no reasonable person is seriously advocating trading a top-5 pick for a middle-six player? If Elias Pettersson is available this off-season and Vancouver pivots to wanting a top-5 pick as the primary piece in a trade package, then it isn't crazy to trade such a pick in a deal for such a player. If it is a package trade that includes a 1st rd pick, then the value of the other pieces should be adjusted relative to the value of the 1st. Regardless, it isn't necessary for us to move our 1st rd pick. Though I'm not opposed to doing so in the right deal, I think we have more than enough assets and cap space for a good GM, who is working for a committed owner, to make the necessary moves that would make us a playoff team. There is no reason at this time, to think Adams is that GM. Pegula, does not appear to be that owner. My hope is that the Bills take a long run at the Super Bowl and that Pegula has a moment where he realizes just how incredible the Buffalo sports-scene could be if he had two teams that were championship contenders.

Or, maybe Ruff isn’t as good at coaching a team to play “the way Ruff wants them to” as some people think. Also, maybe there are some flaws in “the way Ruff wants them to play” when they have a lead.

There are 5 teams currently in a playoff position, whose 2nd line centre has fewer points than McLeod. And McLeod gets zero PP time. If, hypothetically, the Sabres sent Cozens and Byram to VCR for Pettersson, I think tonight’s lines could work next year, with Pettersson subbed in for Cozens. Pettersson with Thompson on his right wing could be elite. Zucker is a solid 3rd part of the line. McLeod with Tuch and Peterka is a fast, (2/3’s) defensively responsible line with two wingers who can score 30. Krebs at centre with Benson and Quinn is basically what we started the year with as line two, but with Cozens replaced by a better defensive centre and with the line properly slotted as line 3. Kozak has been a nice addition to the bottom 4 forwards. Bring Forbort back with Pettersson and pair him or Johnson with Clifton. Send Joker to SJ with a pick, for Ceci and pair Ceci with Power. Trade Samuelsson and Kulich to Calgary for Andersson, to pair with Dahlin. Levi replaces Reimer. Get a HC and assistants who know their way around a PP and who don’t coach the Alamo strategy when defending a lead. Sell out playoff games. Just dreaming.

I don’t think any reasonable person is suggesting we trade Power for a late first and a goalie prospect. I get not having faith in Adams to make a good deal. I also get that people have their, in practical terms, untouchables. Power for a legit #1 centre is not a crazy idea. It might be unrealistic as such trades are rare. Pierre Turgeon and Phil Housley went on to have Hall of Fame careers, but few people lament their departures from Buffalo because the players that came back were Lafontaine and Hawerchuk (two Hall of Famers). That’s the sort of trade involving Power that might make sense.

I have no interest in selling Power for pieces. But a trade that sees us deal Power (or Byram) for a player who helps us win now (and at least for a few years) is not a terrible idea. Completing such a trade would be challenging, but the theory doesn’t offend me.