GASabresIUFAN

I wrote that Risto’s production fell because Dahlin took over the no1 PP, but his ES was only marginally better year over year; 4g 22a to 4g, 19a in the shorter season. That’s not real improvement. I also wrote that Risto’s D improved. KO’s even strength goals have been flat for 3 years at 9,7,8. That isn’t improvement, but his overall production has gone from 44, to 29 to 19 as he has morphed into a 4th line checking forward. So while, Risto improved on D, RK wreaked Montour and Miller. In addition no one, including Jack, truly flourished offensively under RK. Jack did score more goals but assists fell at ES, Reinhart at ES fell 12 pts. Skinner tanked. Some of this is from the shorter season but not all. Honestly other then Risto’s D, I can’t find anyone who truly improved last season under RK. PS. I was trying to generate some hope for coming season. You made me look even deeper at the numbers especially as ES and now depressed me further about the team under RK. Thanks.

Just read the Athletic Sabres preview and like nearly everyone else they have us 7th in the division with a similar record to last year. The funny thing, as I read the article, it occurred to me that we really don’t have many candidates for a serious regression this season outside injuries. Besides RK sentencing Skinner to 4th line purgatory, the majority of our forwards should be as good if not better then last season. Rieder, Eakin, Sheahan, Lazar, and Okposo produced next to nothing last season. Eakin is destined for more PT here then LV so hopefully he rebounds. Okposo should be at least as good as last season and if he and Eakin can find some offensive chemistry maybe he be more productive then his 19 pts last season. I don’t expect anything from Lazar, Sheahan or Rieder. The more important players are the six forwards in our top 6. Hall has been down the last two years, however he is playing for a big payday and is paired with one of the most dynamic centers in the NHL. If the pairing works, then both players will explode and this will add wins the columnists aren’t expecting. The Athletic did note that Jack’s chances actually fell last year, but that looks like an anomaly. Tage gets the first opportunity to ride the Hall/Eichel coat tails. If he carries his good play from camp into the regular season, he will more then earn the contract KA gave him. I expect Staal to continue to defy father time. He is going to have two solid line mates in Reinhart and VO. Reinhart has been pretty consistent offensively over the last few years. This will be his first year away from Jack and is somewhat a candidate for regression. However he’ll still be on the top power play and VO’s presence on the line should help him keep his assists up. I suspect VO will be perform very similarly to how he performed last year. On defense, I expect bigger numbers from Dahlin and Jokiharju. Dahlin especially seems poised for a break out. If this team clicks, I can see him actually scoring at nearly a point a game as the QB one the number 1 PP. Joker had 15 pts last season, I think this is a reasonable goal even in this shortened schedule. McCabe’s production remains steady between 12-15 pts. No reason to suspect he’ll slide. Risto had his worst O season last year dropping from 43 to 33 points as Dahlin took over the 1st PP but his best year defensively. Hopefully the D trend continues, but he is a candidate for further regression. Montour had his worst O year last season as he was moved to the left side. He is a huge rebound candidate. Miller also had his worst statistical season last year. However he now has a fixed role on the team in the top 6 but on the left side. Hopefully he’ll adjust well and being back some of the O he showed in LV. Basically, only Reinhart and Ristolainen seem like candidates for regression, but there are arguments that both should be just fine. If guys like Eakin, Hall, Montour, and Miller rebound and Thompson, Dahlin and Jokiharju continue to develop we could easily outperform expectations. My biggest concern is how many past and present Sabres has their worst statistical seasons under RK. Current Sabres Skinner, Miller, Okposo, Montour and Ristolainen had their worst O seasons last year, plus ex-Sabres, Sheary, Vesey and ERod. While not all of their diminished offense can be laid at RK’s feet, he certainly bares some responsibility. Hopefully both he and the players learned from their mistakes last season.

https://www.cbssports.com/nhl/news/sharks-evander-kane-files-for-bankruptcy-totally-26-8-million-worth-of-debt-per-reports/ How does someone get 27 million in debt? 7 dependents? 3 homes? Evander needs some serious help.

Actually that is where the misuse comes from. We had 4 top 6 forwards last year. RK kept 3 on one line for most of the season and left Skinner on his own. My guess is a VO/Jack pair and a Skinner/Reinhart pair would have lead to more offense.

Yeah think? The funny thing is I don’t mind Skinner on the 3rd line but with decent players. He actually is a matchup nightmare for most opponents’ 3rd lines. However RK approach creates a line of Lazar, Sheahan and Skinner, which lacks a playmaker to distribute the puck.

Apparently goals per 60 at ES doesn’t matter for a team that has struggled to score goals. That makes sense.

Wasn’t analytics supposed to be a more important factor under KA?

Morally or financially?

This isn't the case of an inmate running the asylum. What has Skinner said the media or on social media? The only one who said Skinner wasn't playing the system was RK. My defense of Skinner is simple. I've said over and again that Skinner needs to buy in. RK admits Jeff is working on doing what RK wants, however, as I've said before, great coaches work with what they got and adjust to their talent. Lindy Ruff for example, but also Barry Trotz with Ovie, Backstrom and Kuznetsov. RK's system reminds me of Trotz's. From the quotes I hear Skinner is trying to do what the coach wants, but I also hear a coach unwilling to adjust to make the best out of this excellent 5 on 5 scorer. Trotz proved in Wash that he can be flexible. RK hasn't proven that and condemning his 2 or 3rd best even strength scorer to a 10 minute or less 4th line doesn't seem like flexibility. I hope and pray that I'm wrong. I hope RK's bottom six proves productive. The Sabres have 10 games in the last 18 days of Jan. We'll know pretty quickly if the RK plan is working.

May be worth a shot. Wasn't he the guy that at one point was supposed to be a top 10 pick, but then his rating fell late and he was drafted late in the 2nd rd? I did a quick search and McKenzie had him 24th in 2015.

Apples and oranges. Casey is a kid and developing prospect. Show me the expert quote that says RK is a proven great NHL coach? He failed in Edm and wasn’t given another shot at the NHL for years. His first year here was marked by 5 significant losing streaks, a terrible PK and poor player usage.

I’m not saying I don’t like getting Hall and Staal, nor am I saying KA stinks. In fact I think he has done a good job overall. However, he didn’t address RW or goaltending and all his new forwards are coming off down years, except Staal who is 37, which he hopes are not long term trends. I’m confident Hall will rebound playing with Jack. Not so much on Rieder and Eakin.

As I said earlier RK will take the heat for this. Some of this mess also lies with KA. We lacked depth at RW and Center, not LW. He had Skinner, VO and Girgensons returning. Our only proven RWs were Reinhart and 4th line KO. He did address center with Staal and Eakin but got LW Hall and never really addressed RW at all. Un-surprisingly we now have 3 top 6 LWs for two jobs and an unproven kid as Jack’s RW.

Lindy Ruff was the last good coach this team had and sadly his stale message and the lack of talent got him in the end. I was hopeful on RK. However last season his lack of flexibility, his moving Montour to the wrong side and the terrible PK all gave me pause. Now his approach to the bottom six has added to my negative feeling. Still it’s a new season. There is always hope.

http://collegehockeyinc.com/articles/2019/03/study-data-shows-need-for-patience.php#:~:text=College Hockey Inc.,paid to the youngest commits. Average commitment to a school is 18.9, with 28.6% being 20 or 21. Average age when the player debuts in the NCAA is 20. https://www.collegehockeynews.com/almanac/funfacts-ageavg.php\ At 30 D1 schools the average age of their teams are 22 or older.

One other thought on RK's statement that Skinner isn't playing the system. That should have been kept in house. He basically threw Skinner under the bus. Nice! He should have said we have 3 top 6 quality LWs and Hall and Olofsson have shown good chemistry with Jack and Eric so that's the direction we are going to start the year. However if that camp chemistry doesn't carry over into the season we will reevaluate. This way Skinner doesn't look like a chump and RK hasn't aired the dirty laundry in public. He can still send the same message to Skinner in house and say if you want to get out of my dog house work on back checking and helping the D.

I'll go on record and say I don't think RK is a good NHL coach. Hopefully he and the Sabres will prove me wrong. His "pairs" in the forward group makes no sense to me. Yes I like line continuity and hope, like any fan or coach, for line chemistry. So build lines not pairs. His pairs right now are Jack/Taylor, Staal/Reinhart and for some crazy reason Eakin/KO. Honestly this line creation method screams of a coach being inflexible. He has spent camp focused finding 3rds for his pairs. On paper this makes sense, but his focus on pairing Eakin with KO is creating a terrible bottom six. Eakin is the only established center that could bring secondary scoring in the bottom 6. Pairing him with checking forward KO reduces the likelihood to near zero. Obviously be creating that pair, RK intends Eakin and KO to be the center piece of his shutdown line. Great notion, except that condemns one of your best 5 on 5 goal scorers to playing on a line centered by AAAA Lazar or checking line center Sheahan and playing only 10 minutes a night or less 5 on 5. Does that make any sense at all? Sheahan or Lazar are also just as likely to be effective in a shutdown role, freeing Eakin to center a scoring line. IMHO coaches should run with hot lines while their working and be willing to try something else when they are not. Maybe, unless we finish at the bottom of the standings again. Then Hall will be traded at the deadline and RK will be gone.

It's more than that. Skinner was an effective player when RK got here and last year with RK as coach he suffered his worst season when the coach refused until late in the year to adjust the lineup to try to get Skinner going. RK was more interest in keeping the Jack/Sam "pair" together then experimenting to try to maximize his assets. Now that same coach is demoting him to play with has beens and AAAA players. He says Skinner isn't following his principals. Everyone knows that Skinner isn't the greatest two way player, but he is one of the best 5 on 5 goal scorers in the NHL. However, instead of finding away to utilize what Skinner does well he sends him to purgatory and hopes no one notices. Even renowned system man and disciplinarian Barry Trotz adjusted his system to accommodate the up tempo talent he had in Wash to win a Cup. He meet the players half way. They played a better defensive structure overall but he also opened up to a more offensive mentality. He even got Ovie to buy in, but he also didn't ask him to play on the 4th line. Yes Skinner needs to buy in and do a better job playing a 200 foot game. However, It's also up to the coach to find away to maximize his players. The best coaches have systems but adjust to the talent they have. If this team falls to the bottom of the standings again, RK will be gone and Skinner will get another new coach.

People will turn on Krueger first. If this team doesn't get off to a good start and the new enhanced offense doesn't click, how RK treated Skinner will be a lightning rod for criticism. He'll deserve it. That said, if the team gets off to a good start no one will care where Skinner plays.

Put the Fork in the Steelers. They are done. Bring on the Ravens. NFC (Old Guard) Brady (TB) age 43 Brees (NO) age 42 Rodgers (GB) age 37 Goff (LA) age 26 - 1st overall in 2016 draft Strange, all two word name cities vs. AFC (New Guard) Mahomes (KC) age 25 - 10th overall in 2017 draft (with our pick) Allen (BUF) age 24 - 7th Overall in 2018 draft Jackson (BAL) age 24 - 32nd overall in 2018 draft Mayfield (CLE) age 25 - 1st overall in 2018 draft I'm impressed with the ex-Bills backup QBs turned coaches Frank Reich created a master game plan and nearly beat us Alex Van Pelt has been doing a great job as the Cleveland OC this season. My guess is he had a huge impact on Baker Mayfield. The 3 & 4 seeds lost in both the AFC and NFC. Lamar vs Allen is great, but how much better would it have been if they didn't re-seed and Buffalo was playing Cleveland for a right to play in the AFC championship.

I hate to bring up Lindy Ruff, but he adjusted his system to try to get the best from his players. In the Peca/Hasek years we were defense first and counter punchers. The Briere/Drury teams buried teams with offense. RK seems to lack that flexibility.

That means he isn’t a good coach. He should be able to look at his squad and realize that he is fielding 5 guys (nearly 50% of his lineup) with little or no offensive upside. Considering that was the team’s biggest Achilles Heel, he should look for ways to make his bottom 6 more effective on offense. Sending out Mitts, R2 and Cozens while keeping Lazar and Sheahan is foolish. In fact, he could be creative and create one D group to start in our zone and one O group to start in the opponents zone. Our top 2 lines will probably play 20 minutes a night. That leaves 20 minutes to divide between the other 2 line. So Rieder Eakin KO are the D group, while Skinner Mitts Cozens is the O group. Each gets 10 minutes a night depending where the faceoff is or who the matchup is. The mistake Jbot and co made was forcing Mitts into ROR’s role before he was ready. I’m not worried about Cozens playing 10 minutes in a most Offense oriented role.

Which is not a positive for RK.

If that’s the case, Allen will be the first from his class to play for a Super Bowl!

Had Rieder stunk in camp, he’d be on the taxi squad. He needed to prove he was still an NHL player and had a good camp. A vet minimum contract is barely better then a PTO. These guys are easily waived with no cap consequences.