GASabresIUFAN

There is a huge difference between team consensus between the scouts and senior staff and internet list consensus. If I’m running a team, I’d want to know who my scouts have the most conviction about. If you have good professionals a GM should listen to them and the culture should encourage the scouts to speak up. As to Boston, who the heck knows how they put a list together.

I’m not really about the pipeline. My “worry” is how quickly some of our young forwards price themselves out of the team. How quickly Rosen and other forwards start pushing on guys like Asplund, Girgensons and KO etc…

I don't look at it that way. While I ranked them 1-31 that year, I actually tier the guys. So there was that year tier 1 which included the top 3. The second tier included had 7 guys including Pettersson, Makar, and Mitts who had very similar rankings and experience doing these charts has shown that the tiers are more important than the actual number ranking. Of the 7 tier 2 guys, all 7 were drafted in the next 9 picks and the 2 guys who popped into the top 10 were both from tier 3 (one pick worked ok in Rasmussen and one didn't in Andersson). Again the consensus boards are just a guide for fans to get an idea who should go approximately where. They are not a PBA list.

Tyson Novak could be signed this offseason and debut with the Amerks in the fall. The issue we are having is that the middle 4 picks in 2019 remain in college or Europe. The good news is all 4 remain legit prospects and all 4 had really good years last season (Johnson, Portillo, Huglen and Cederqvist). KA's 2020 draft is having similar issues to Jbot's 2019. The top 2 prospects developed quickly (this is a good thing), but the other 3 picks, who are all also progressing nicely, remain in college or Europe. Costantini had a very solid college season, Lyckasen, RHD, played well in the SWE-1 including 5 points in 9 playoff games and Konecny played in the top Czech league. So while there is a void in Rochester, 7 quality guys from 2019 and 2020 are making good headway. I suspect in 2023-24 many of these guys in Rochester. Add 2021 prospects like Nadeau, Nozak and Bloom and Rochester could be over flowing in prospects in 2023-24.

As you know I don't believe in PBA because it doesn't exist. Every list and every GM is different and value different things. However using a consensus opinion as a guide to the draft makes sense as most of the good list makers know significantly more then we'll ever know about the prospects. I have made a 1st rd consensus list for over a decade and found that it's usually a very good indication of who the top 20 to 25 players are every year. However the order they get drafted is never right, but the tiers are usually pretty close. Nearly all of my top 30 players each year get drafted within the first 40 picks, but the miss rate increases significantly after pick 20 or so (or whenever Boston drafts). Ultimately I disagree with you conclusion. The consensus wasn't wrong to have Patrick as a better prospect then Makar. He was the better prospect at the time. He was a more productive player in a higher end league at a younger age. Makar didn't blossom until D+2. How is a scout or a list maker to predict that or that injuries would derail Patrick? Hindsight is 20/20. It's easy to look back and say Makar was the best player that year, but that wasn't clear cut then. If it had been 3 teams wouldn't have passed on him. I went back and looked at my draft list from that year and Makar's grade ranged from 3-17. His average was 8.50 for 7th on my draft board. Hischier, Patrick and Heiskanen were 1, 2 and 3 and that's the way they were drafted. Despite all their resources some team get it right like Van on Pettersson who they grabbed on 5 (10th on my board), while the Rangers reached and failed with Andersson at 7 (13th on my board). Ultimately my consensus list did a really good job. Of the top 22 guys on my board, who had near total consensus as 1st rd prospects, all went in the first rd. Of my top 31 that year, 27 went in the 1st rd and the other 4 were 4 of the top 8 picks in the 2nd rd. The consensus actually had some major bright spots like Andersson early and it had Jason Robertson at 28. He fell to 39 in the actual draft, but if we re-draft today Robertson would be a top 10 pick.

It's hard to blame any list for that. Makar was dominating the AJHL, a league a step below the CHL his draft season and while good his first college season (D+1) he didn't blow the doors off. He had 21 points in 34 games. Power in his D+1 season had 32 in 33 games. Patrick had 102 points in 72 games as a 17 year old in the WHL. Every team wanted him. His draft year he was on pace for as good a season before an injury after 33 games (46 points). He also didn't go first overall but 2nd behind Hischier. Also Heiskanen went 3rd overall and was the 1st D. Sure it seems stupid now given how their careers have gone, but it's not like Patrick was an out of left field choice and 3 total players were taken ahead of Makar. I wonder what DG could do for Patrick is the Sabres could get ahold of him.

@sweetlou When I did my first drafts of possible teams for next year, I like you assumed most of the new talent would be trades for players with term. I went in with the idea that what UFA would want to come here if they had a choice. However the last 8 weeks have changed that narrative. Also I think KA has been pretty clear that he doesn't plan to move any of the 1st rd picks and he and DG expect to bring back the majority of the roster. That doesn't leave much trade bait except our cap space. Right now I think KA can accomplish his goals with second tier UFAs, but I'm still not adverse to a trade, I just think the odds have gone down. On the trade front, I can see KA going after someone like Dreiger from Seattle for the goaltending. I also like Nick Jensen from the Caps.

This is from CBS’ Pete Prisco https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/priscos-2022-nfl-draft-grades-for-all-32-teams-ravens-earn-a-chiefs-and-jets-get-as-bears-get-worst-mark/ “Worst Pick: I like second-round running back James Cook, but is he much different than Devin Singletary? Why not a bigger back who can run between the tackles?” I almost burst out laughing. The only thing Cook and Singletary have in common is that they are both running backs. Cook has 4.4 speed compared to Singletary’s 4.6. Cook also has better hands and is a better route runner. So Pete why not a big back to run between the tackles? Because that player is Josh Allen. The Bills needed a good pass catching back to give Josh better check down options. The added benefit is that Cook has the speed to take it to the house.

He should have said, I have been given a exciting new opportunity or challenge. How he wrote his good bye makes it seem like he hated his job for the last 20 years and maybe he has.

It doesn’t stop it and it doesn’t matter in the end. How many teams will sabotage their seasons next year to get Bedard ? 3 or 4? How is the lottery going to stop that? Rebuilding is also a tradition in the NHL. Every year bad teams trade away veteran talent for draft picks. The draft lottery has done nothing to change that. Also the odds of getting a generational talent at the top of the draft are small. McDavid, Crosby and Mathews are truly elite, but what of Hischier or Hall or Yakupov or RNH or Eric Johnson. None of these guys are generational talent. Many others are excellent players but aren’t franchise changers like an Ekblad or even Dahlin. How many Cups have McDavid or Matthews even played for? Getting a generational talent obviously doesn’t guarantee success. It takes a team to contend and good management to build a team. It seems most “tanking” teams lack the management to right their ships. Arizona has been a disaster franchise since day one. Toronto hasn’t won a Cup since 1967 or a playoff series since 2004. There is talk in Toronto of hiring new management of (when) the team falls again early in this year’s playoffs. A lack of D and goaltending will do that. EDM with McDavid and Draisaitl is only now making the playoffs consistently but aren’t a contender, but their rebuild took 15 years of high picks including 4 1st overall selections to now only sort of work. Ott, NJ (w 2 1st overall picks) and Det have made high picks for years now aren’t even close to playoff contention. Buffalo hasn’t reached the playoffs in a decade+, despite drafting in the top 8 for a decade including 2 1st overall and 2 2nd overall picks and we still don’t have any goaltending. The bottom line is the lottery has done nothing to prevent tanking despite ample evidence that tanking doesn’t work anyway. All the lottery is an annual NHL game show to try drive some additional media attention.

They may not even do that. I am an advocate of acquiring a real 2 way center, but realize that puts either Z or Asplund in the pressbox if JJP makes the team. Putting one of our best defensive players in the pressbox probably won't fly with DG and if Z is the odd man out, that also takes one of the team leaders off the ice. I doubt DG and KA want to do that at this point. If they re-sign Vinnie, I would doubt they add another outside forward for the Sabres at least. The defense is another matter. I expect at least 2 new D. A partner for Power and one other veteran D who KA considers an upgrade on Pysyk. I think they love their top 3 in Dahlin, Power and Samuelsson and believe in the development of Joki and Bryson. If I remember correctly, DG mentioned Joki like 4 times in his press conference. Fitz is the second coming of Rory Fitzpatrick. That leaves 1-2 openings for outside players.

How about just get rid of the lottery?

We want the pick this year. There is good depth in this draft through 22. I have guys like McGroarty, Isaac Howard, Snuggerud, Geekie, Ohgren and Meser in that tier. I think all will be good NHL players. Depending on how the draft goes: 9 -10 Jiricek, Lekkerimaki, Gauthier, Nazar 16. Ohgren, McGroarty, Howard, Geekie, Mesar 32. ?? Lain Bichsel I'd love 2/3 of the excellent Swedish line and grab Lekkerimaki and Ohgren.

Risto. He also would have moved Sam to center after the ROR trade. He also wouldn’t have let Mitts flounder. You wonder if Mitts and Tnt would have blossomed sooner if he had been their initial coach.

Actually I've been to a few games in recent years and the stadium was awful.

Overlooked maybe someone like Eric Comrie who at 26 finally made the show and played well for WPG in his 19 games or someone like Casey DeSmith who at 30 is the perfect bridge age and may relish an opportunity to be the starter.

The only major thing I took away from DG’s press 42 minute conference, besides a nap, was that the analytics would take care of themselves as the team improved.

What a waste, when you can accomplish the goals without resorting to that kind of move, still improve the team and not block a single kid. You give VO 4 years @ 5.5, re-sign Vinnie for a year at 2.5, sign DeSmith 3 years at 3.5, sign Jan Rutta for 2 years at 2.25 and then find a solid depth veteran LHD like Marc Staal for 2 mill.

They are part of the problem. Anderson missed significant time with injury and was a below average NHL goaltender last season when he played. UPL was worse in the AHL than Aaron Dell behind the same defense. Hoping that we’d get at least a similar mediocre performance from Anderson at 41, is foolish at best. Hoping a mediocre AHL goalie can miraculously be good in the NHL the next season is also foolish.

If you fix it they will come.

We really don’t have the roster space to take on to many cap dumps. KA also won’t bring in someone that doesn’t fit in the lockerroom. Subtle will be the watch word.

I do think their is definitely something in his experience with that Carolina Cup team that is helping him now. Knowing Brind’amour and Rutherford and being able to use those relationships has certainly help him grow into the job. I’m still not completely sold on him as a GM, but I’m coming around. I think the team is a playoff contender right now with good goaltending. He has unlimited cap space and other assets to fix the goaltending. No more excuses.

Lucky. Right place, right time, but smart enough to surround himself with good people. DG fell onto his lap.