GASabresIUFAN

New article in the Athletic about the dangers of signing players to big $ contract after a sudden breakout with a career high shooting %. https://theathletic.com/3559089/2022/09/02/nhl-contracts-shooting-percentage-tage-thompson/ Here are some excerpts Then they give 20 examples of how contracts such as Thompsons work out and it isn't good. 14. Drew Stafford - and we know how that worked out. He scored 31 (17.3 shooting %) in 62 games at 25 years old and we gave him a big $ 4 year deal. He scored at 8.8% through out the deal. 3. Jeff Skinner - 13.8 % in his contract year and thus JBot's big $ reward. To say he stunk the next couple of seasons is an understatement, but he rebounded nicely last year, but still ....... 1. Ville Leino 5 on 5 shooting % with the Sabres over the next 3 seasons was 7.3% I'm not saying TnT's contract won't work out, but this article gives serious food for thought.

I'm projecting a similar point total as last year, but with much more dominate all around play. The reason for not much growth in points is the addition of Power and as he comes along, he'll being to take some PT away from Dahlin, which will be good for both players.

25g 35a. He and Cozens combine with TnT to give us the best center play we have had since the Briere/Drury Sabres.

Robert Plant and Allison Krauss on Tuesday.

Let me know when he scores 25 goals in the KHL and then we’ll talk. Right now he is an unknown quantity.

https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2022/08/29/broncos-cut-punter-sam-martin-after-he-refuses-pay-cut/ FYI

ask and ye shall receive.

Who?

We need to add Mitts to the conversation. He and Cozens are the ones to watch this coming season. KA has now set a precedent that a 35 goal 65 point breakout season is worth $50 mill over 7 years. Remember Mitts was the No1 center coming out of camp last year. In his last 81 games as a Sabre, Mitts has 16g 25a for 41 pts. Is it really to hard to imagine that if he stays healthy he could put up 25g 35a. Cozens looked like he is putting it all together at Worlds after putting 38 pts last year. His year over year improvement was substantial, going from .3 pts/gp as a rookie to .48 as a sophomore. Like Mitts, you feel the production blow up coming. So how does KA handle these two if they score 60 or more next season? Cozens is an RFA at year’s end and Mitts will have one year left on his bridge like TnT did.

Or an over involved former NHL player father like someone else we know.

This is end......

I'm with @Buffalonill on this one. I'm very concerned about regression with TnT for the coming season. While the term and $ would be fine for a more proven player, but Tage literally has played one full NHL season. His improvement as a player under DG is undeniable, but last year 15% shooting % is a major red flag. Someone brought up Pastrnak as an example of how someone can suddenly emerge. However David shot 10.8% and 13.9% in the year prior to his first 30 goal season. In that season, at age 20, he actually only shot 13% and has sustained that or better since then. Thompson is not Pastrnak. Thompson's % prior to this past season were 5.5%, 6.5% and 8.3%. I would have liked to at least see how TnT played this coming season for the first 30-40 games before making this extension. Now if Tage regresses, we have another albratros contract on our hand like Skinners. Pominville is an interesting comparison. Pommers first (of 3) 30 goal seasons came with a 16% shooting %. He never came close to that % again. However, Pommers was also a good playmaker and could still drive offense even when the puck wasn't going in. Pommers had 3 seasons with 40 to 50 assists. Tage doesn't have that in his arsenal at this point if the puck isn't going in. I'll be happy to be proven wrong again on a TnT contract. However the stakes are much higher now. If the Sabres don't get legit value from this contract, it could really limit the upside of this rebuild.

That’s a big deal for a guy with one successful season coupled with a career high shooting %.

This is the type of stat that truly reflects why they drafted him. I agree that prior admins likely didn’t go to that depth in their analysis.

But they said they also go to the draft with only about 115 to 140 players on their draft board.

It seems to me the real benefit of all that work is later in the draft. While they seem to adhere to the general adage that they must do at least one thing at an NHL level such at score, skate or defend, they really seem to be finding guys that one can project as really having a chance to be an NHLer. Here are some standouts that KA drafted after the 2nd rd in the last couple of drafts that really illustrate how their system is finding possible gems. In 2021 they grabbed Bloom, Nadeau, Kozak and Novikov. The first 3 rewarded the Sabres with excellent CHL seasons with 30 goals plus each. All are now signed. Novikov was able to hang defensively in the KHL at 18. Bloom even missed his draft year season because of COVID lockdowns. In 2022 they found 3 potential scorers late in Neuchev, Richard and Karlsson and then added a high skill excellent skating D in Lindgren and another solid defensive Russian in Komarov. Richard and Karlsson standout to me because their scouting uncovered Richard’s huge in-season progress in the USHL and found in Karlsson the 2nd best goal scorer for his age group in Swedish juniors. The only player who scored more than Karlsson at his age and league was a 1st rd pick.

Sure Smith stunk. However assistants coach what their superiors tell them to coach. Remember DG was RK’s forward coach. How did that work out? Certainly DG wasn’t coaching his current system. RK’s team RK is responsible for the results regardless of who the day to day position coach is.

Other lists https://www.nhl.com/news/buffalo-sabres-top-five-prospects/c-335214354 https://theathletic.com/3509824/2022/08/25/buffalo-sabres-nhl-pipeline-rankings-prospects/

All that said, NHL.com writers think Power could be in the conversation as best D in the NHL in a couple of years. https://www.nhl.com/news/top-defenseman-in-nhl-in-three-seasons-debated/c-335390352

He is going to stink. By mid-season his PT will be reduced to about 12 minutes a night and will be a frequent healthy scratch and he is outplayed by Bryson and Pilot. If we get 15 points we’ll be lucky. Just kidding. I do think we need to temper our expectations a little. He is a rookie and probably won’t see major PP time with Dahlin here. He is also probably going to be asked to be more defensively aware than he needed to be with Michigan and there will be bad stretches like with nearly all rookies. If he gives us what Herman did as a rookie and shows improvement through the season be happy.

Currently at the Goo Goo Dolls. The warm up band Blue October was pretty good.

3rd line center with 40-45 pts.

A Hedman like rookie season.

Good Skating is one of those things I like our prospects to have but isn’t a make or break issue for many players unless their role depends on it. The lack of top end speed certainly hasn’t hampered Reinhart for example. Mattias doesn’t need it great speed to play the defensive specialist who allows Dahlin to do what he does best. I do understand why he has Samuelsson relatively low. Matt is a high floor low ceiling prospect. He is what he is like Novikov further down the list. He likely won’t ever be a player coaches use on the PP or when the team is down a goal with a minute to play. So what. This kid will probably play 1000 games NHL, much of it in the top 4, shutting down opponents top forwards. His physical style is something this team needs more of. A player like Nadeau doesn’t need it as long as he has enough speed to get to the front of the net on time when the puck is launched toward the net. Dave Andreychuk made the Hall of Fame playing that way. Also speed without hockey sense is useless. Laaksonen can’t play defense, so what good is his speed? I worry Lindgren is much the same. I agree with @LGR4GM that Dahlin’s compete level has increased dramatically under DG and is no longer an issue. I also think his in zone play has also improved. G-d what RK nearly did to this kid is unforgivable. Is anyone else worried about the lack of size among our forward prospects. The 3 1st rd pick this year are all under 6 feet. Also we could use more physical players like Samuelsson and Novikov, especially up front. Nadeau’s willingness to play in the dirty areas may become a necessity for this team.

These articles aren't really prospect summaries. The authors list is the top 25 under 25. That includes more than just prospects. That would include Thompson, Mitts, Cozens, Dahlin etc and non-prospects like Kale Clague. Hard to trust a list that has Neuchev and Kozak at 37 and 36 respectively and Pekar at 26. When I wrote up my prospect list I had Pekar 39th. Now if you add established young pros like TnT, Mitts and Dahlin, that puts Pekar somewhere around 50th.