GASabresIUFAN

How do we actually fix the defense? Dahlin, Power, and Samuelsson are the core and not going anywhere. Jokiharju, 23, RHD, has one more year at 2.5 and then is an RFA. Lyubushkin, 28, RHD, has one more year at 2.75 and then is a UFA Stillman, 25, LHD, has one more year at 1.35 and then is an RFA Bryson, 25, LHD (but can also play RD), has one more year at 1.85 and then in as RFA Clague, 25, LHD (but can also play RD), is an RFA That's 8 D under contract or control. Assuming for argument's sake that KA brings in two D this summer, who is retained, who is traded, and who will be waived because they value? How do they structure the defense going forward? Does Bryson have any trade value? How likely is it that Clague is re-signed? Will KA be willing to move on from either Bush or Stillman? How much trade value does Joki have and how do you allocate the D if you don't trade him?

No question both need to be upgraded, but when I said no goalie can succeed with how we play I mean it. Put Saros under the barrage the guys play under, we’d still need to score 5 a night to win. That’s not acceptable and no FA or player with an NTC will come here until the defense is fixed.

It doesn’t have to be a 35 year old player. It can be a 29 year old guy with 500+ games of experience, hopefully with good teams. Entering this season, Dahlin, 22, was our most experienced D with 277 games played. Joki, 23, was next at 213. What I’m hoping for is the modern equivalent of adding Teppo and Lydman like DR did in 2005. NJ added Marino and Hamilton the last two seasons.

Fixing the defense is the top priority. All 3 goaltenders need to go, but no goalie can succeed here (except Ullmark), without fixing the D and the forwards commitment to back checking. KA has needed to add veteran leadership to the D for two years and the need is even greater now. If the vet doesn’t partner with Power, than getting a partner for Power is the top priority after that.

The 7th is 2025, not 2023 (or even 2024). Sorry.

You say that but the draft success says otherwise. When the vast majority of players in the NHL are 1st rd picks and the vast majority of star players are high first rd picks, the data suggests these professionals do their job very well. @LGR4GM recently posted a chart about draft hit rate and what % become star players. Size also does matter. Have you seen Bryson getting physically moved off the puck game after game? However since the rule changes 20 years ago, the game has opened up and more small players are succeeding so more smaller players are being drafted. Savoie, our top prospect is only 5’9”. Bedard is 5’10.” Saro’s success has also removed some of the bias against smaller goalies.

Is this a surprise? These number are very similar to Scott Cullen, formerly of TSN, was writing about a decade ago. Bottomline: Any pick outside of the second is a lottery ticket and a prayer. Even 2nd round picks have limited value. It’s why trading a 2nd for a Jordan Greenway makes sense. It’s also why drafting only one D with 10 1st and 2nd rd picks over 3 years is a mistake. You don’t have what you don’t draft in the 1st two rounds. 🙂 He is the D that stands out given the Sabres longterm needs.

The truth is this team hasn’t been good against the top teams in the league all season. It comes down to a lack of depth on D, and goaltending. Those areas are also hurt by the system we play. This off-season is going to be the biggest challenge of KA’s career. Expectations have now changed. He can’t go with the status quo in goal and on defense. He must make substantive changes. I would move on from all 3 goalies. I also think DG needs to take a close look at his system. He needs to help the defense. I’m not writing them off completely for the playoffs this season. These guys keep finding ways to surprise, but the changes are needed regardless of whether or not they sneak into the playoffs. KA needs to look at what NJ did this summer and try to duplicate what they did to fix their D and G.

Could Fletcher had done a worse job? His long until Miller is a GM somewhere? They makes 3 from the 05/06 team.

What have we learned in the last few games? 1) We are still in the running for the playoffs, but we really aren't there yet. The goaltending isn't good enough, the defense is young, not very deep, and not good enough and while the offense is good in general, we could still use more depth. 2) It's time for max PT for all the kids. UPL, JJP, Quinn, Krebs, and even Jost, Greenway, and Stillman. We know Bryson and Clague aren't the answer. We know Comrie and Anderson aren't the answer. We also know KO and Girgensons, as much as we like both players, aren't the answer. Sit the vets if needed and let the kids learn from the experience. 3) Hopefully the expanded PT will help KA determine who gets what role next year and whether the player should be here at all.

Wow, I'm sorry I missed this one. Did Dallas just score again? We have been arguing about the D, but how bad was Comrie? Well, I guess we can relax now and just see what happens. Maybe the kids can get it together for the home stretch. At this point might as well play UPL most nights and find out if we have anything there.

So you want to talk numbers. (Seattle only has 2 years of draft history.) 12 teams, besides the Sabres, drafted more than their allotment of 21 picks (aka 22 or more picks) over the last 3 years. Those 12 teams averaged 8 D drafted during that period. We drafted 5 on 27 picks. Only the NYR drafted less with 3 D selected on 23 picks. 18 teams drafted 20 or less players during that period. Even these teams averaged 6+ D selected during that period. In fact, only 2 teams in this category drafted less D than the Sabres and they were Edm who took 3 D on 16 picks and Colorado who also took 3 D on 11 picks. Furthermore, there were 13 teams with an above allotment in 1 and 2 round picks (7 or more), besides the Sabres (The Sabres had 10 such picks). Of this group, all but one took more D in the first 2 rounds than the Sabres (Wpg also drafted just 1, but on 7 picks and they still managed to tie our 5 overall on their 15 picks overall). The average number of D taken by these 13 teams was 3. Ana took 5, NJ 4 and Ott 4. @dudacek There are no % or numbers that support the idea that KA has drafted enough D overall or in the 1st two rounds of the draft. He has simply not done enough to stock the pipeline with D. Had he signed a few college UFAs to supplement the pipeline, I wouldn't be belabouring the point, but he hasn't done that either. You also asked about the opportunity to draft D when we drafted (and I'll add Goalies as well since that is another area of weakness). The facts are that he has excellent opportunities. D like Seamus Casey and Mattias Havelid, who had 1st rd grades by most analysts were still available when he reached for the goalie in the 2nd. When he reached for Rosen in 2021, 2 top-flight goalies were still available. Wallstadt had a top 10 grade. Savoie's teammate Lambos was also available. On the 2 2nd rd picks, why did both have to be forwards? There were 5 D taken in the next 7 picks after Poltapov and another 5 in the next 8 picks after Kisakov. 2 of the players drafted after Kisakov are in the NHL including JJ Moser who already has 107 games under his belt. I give him a pass for 2020 because of the lack of picks, but there is no excuse for taking only 4 D in 22 picks in 2021 and 2022.

I said that he was the wrong hire the day he was hired. That doesn’t change the fact that he do make an effort to build a good D group including 3/4 of our top 4 and our top D prospect.

Jbot? 4/6 of our D were acquired or drafted by Jbot. Dahlin, Samuelsson and Bryson were Jbot’s picks. Our only legit prospect, Johnson, was a Jbot pick. He also traded a prospect for Jokiharju. Basically Jbot invested 3 high round picks on defense in his 3 drafts compared to KA’s 1. He also acquired Montour and Miller to supplement his prospect pool. Montour is a good player who was wasted here and Miller was mediocre at best. What more was he supposed to do?

Because he’s an NHL player and is only the 3rd of 6 we need to field a good D group. The question remains how do will fill the other 3 slots longterm. Anyone who brings up Lindgren and the other late rounds picks is asking to hit the lottery. Players like those have a 15% chance of playing 100 games in the NHL and you mostly get guys like Bryson for your trouble. KA has used only 18% of his draft capital on D. The league average is 33% during KA’s tenure. Only perennial playoff teams (read teams with limited No of picks) have spent less than KA’s 18%. For teams with a similar number of picks that last three years all have drafted more D in numbers and/or more during the first 2 rounds. If my memory serves most of the teams with 25 plus picks have drafted at least 3 D in the first 2 rounds over that period. KA drafted one. If this team misses the playoffs, every post mortem for the season will focus on the inadequate D and goaltending and wonder what will be done to fix them because there is no immediate help coming from the prospect pile line.

Why do other team’s inadequate pipeline’s even matter? The fact is we don’t have enough to fill our needs over the next several years. Other than Johnson, Komarov is the closest and he is a 5th rd pick, who may not be ready for another 3 year if at all. Depth on D has been a major weakness of rebuild 3.0 and won’t be fixed until the very stubborn GM chooses to fix it. Band-aids like Lyubushkin and Stillman won’t cut it any longer. His attempt to get Chychrun is a hopeful sign that he realizes that this is an urgent problem and can only be repaired by a trade such as Chychrun or committing to a FA. KA also needs to fix the pipeline. Drafting some in the first 2 rounds would help. Possibly trading a F prospect for a D prospect would also be nice. The LA Kings have some to spare. Signing a college UFA should also be considered. I’d like to wake up in the Fall and see the Amerks with 3 legit prospects playing for them. KA has 8 current NHL players under contract or control. A minimum of two need to be upgraded starting with Power’s partner.

The thing that should scare our opponents is what do they do when JJP and Quinn mature? Then the next wave is Savoie and Kulich. Last year we had one scoring line. This year we have two. Next year we’ll have 3 and hopefully a strong checking line that can contribute. Last season we had 4 20 goal scorers, 4 others with 10-13 and only scored 229 goals. This season, Vinnie and KO have fallen back with diminished roles, yet now we already have 5 20 goal scorers, plus 3 10-14 and another 4 guys likely to reach double figures before the season ends. With 19 games left we have already scored 233 goals. This year’s team might even reach 300 goals by year’s end. So what should happen next year? Who knows, but I fully believe that Cozens can be a 35 goal scorer with Quinn 25, JJP and Mitts 20 and Krebs 15. What’s Power upside? How many will we score then as a team? If KA gets a goaltender and a partner for Power this off-season, this team can easily be the next TB Lightning.

We don’t need him to be Kelce. His job, at first, will be to block, help protect Josh, lead out runs, free Knox into the pattern, and give Josh an outlet and huge red zone/3rd down target. Over time he’ll get more involved in the passing game.

Chad Ruhwedel has carved out a solid career from such a signing, but that is the type of player we should expect from a college UFA signing.

it's been that way since opening night. The 8-game losing streak was primarily caused by losing 3 D to injury. We don't have enough good people in lower roles who can elevate when injuries occur. At forward that's going to change and soon. On defense and in goal, I still don't see the necessary depth and this has been an issue that KA has needed to address for two years and hasn't done the job adequately.

Losing Tuch, Mule and even Stillman couldn't have come at a worse time. Also getting nearly zero production from KO, Z, JJP and VO doesn't help either.

He is at the top of my list as well.

DG took Mitts away from VO and his production dried up. That is not a coincidence.

Better late than never. The D is simply not good enough, although the Fasching goal was BS.

As soon as they pull me back in they push me out again. As disappointment sets in, one knows they'll win 3 straight to get everyone back in it and then they lay 2 eggs again. Rollercoaster to the end.