GASabresIUFAN

You are a tough grader. To give two rookies who played to or above most expectations a "C" seems a little harsh. If you had a vet in a top 9 role and they only produce 30-35 points I can see a grade for not meeting expectations, but really what more did you want from the 2 kids? 50-60 points? I expected them to look like rookies that showed a great deal of promise and they did just that. I give them both a solid B. I'd also give both Cozens and Mitts an A. Both far exceeded the expectations people here set for them.

How about don’t mention them at all?

Yes, that will be a disappointment because it probably means that the defense and goaltending only improved marginally if at all.

The next step isn't slipping into the playoffs with 95 points. We are there already. The next step is being a solid playoff team. That means competing with the TB and Torontos of the world. It means having a reasonable chance of winning a playoff series or two. Unless the D he acquires is significantly better than Jokiharju, you will again be asking a lot of your goaltenders. Right now we were the 3rd highest-scoring team in the NHL and only high-scoring team in the league not to make the playoffs. We gave up nearly 300 goals this season. That number has to decrease by at least 30 goals next season for us to be up there with Toronto and TB. Adding 1 quality defender won't be enough to accomplish that. The advanced stats say UPL regressed this past season. That means that if he and Levi are the goalies next season Levi is going to have to be excellent or better and start 50 games if we are to achieve a top 3 Atlantic finish.

That confirms the eye test and the lack of progress in the basic stats. I just don't see what management sees in these two. I don't know why anyone if they had a choice would want either guy back except as deep depth. Playing Joki 21 minutes a night was just like Risto 24 minutes a night. You did it because you had no choice because all the other options were worse. I'm sorry, but KA has enough cap space to drop Joki down the depth chart and build real D depth this off-season.

KA/DG singled out Joki and UPL in the press conferences. Is there someone here with access to the advanced stats who can illustrate using analytics that these two players have improved over the last few years? The eye test and the basic stats say otherwise. For Joki, his Corsi, Fenwick, and PDO also say otherwise. I really want to know what management sees in these two players.

The difference is that we could see the forwards improving. Dahlin has improved, but the overall defense hasn't improved with him. As I mentioned above, I've never seen any real improvement in UPL's game for years. I also don't think Joki is much improved over the last few seasons, and Bryson has played himself off the roster. The additions of Lyubushkin and Stillman also failed to improve the group. In truth, KA has a great base to work on with Levi, Dahlin, Mule, and Power. Power will continue to improve, but if truth be told I don't think any of your guys 4-8 would be anything but depth players on a good team. If it up to me Joki would be my 6, Bush the 7 and I'd bring in two quality vets to give us good minutes and mentor the top 3. Moves like this would go a long way toward easing the pressure on Levi to be the Savior, helping limit the HDC against, and giving us the depth necessary to survive injuries to the top 3 which we couldn't do this season.

The problem with waiting for UPL to develop (if he ever does), is that the team can no longer afford mediocre to bad goaltending. UPL's and Comrie's most lousy play cost us the playoffs this season. We have one of the top 5 offenses in the league and didn't make the playoffs. In fact, every team that scored over 270 goals made the playoffs except one. The one is us and we actually finished 3rd in goals scored at 293. Only Boston and Edmonton scored more. Also part of the problem with UPL is that his numbers in the AHL and NHL are bad. This is not Ullmark, whose numbers incrementally improved every year. UPL's numbers aren't showing any real improvement. Sometimes you just have to move on and I think this is one of those times.

From his positive comments on UPL and Joki, I worry that he isn’t fully grasping the problems. We can’t forget that we aren’t the only improving team. Det and Ott are also improving and Pitt and Wash won’t go away quietly. Ultimately I hope you are right and KA makes the right choices to fix the obvious issues.

I’ve never said that. I said entering last year the offense was going to be excellent, but they needed to shave about 30 goals against off last year’s totals to get to a plus differential to make the playoffs. I was correct. The goaltending this season was again subpar and the defense, especially if anyone in the top 3 was hurt, was trash. Now we head into next season with what will be the same forward group. Even assuming that group will be equally productive next season, we are still going to have to get the GA down. If you bring back basically the same groups in goal and on defense how much of a different result can you expect unless the one new variable, Levi, is excellent? If Levi is just league average then we won’t be much improved, because he’ll be sharing the net with lousy players. Might it help us sneak into the playoffs? Sure, but is sneaking into the playoffs the goal? It seems to me that with our offense the goal should be to compete with Tor and TB for solid playoff position and a chance to win a round or two in the playoffs. To reach that goal without other substantive changes on defense, Levi will have to be spectacular. Don’t BS me and say you’ll be happy next season if they earn 95 points and slip into the playoffs with a WC. This offense is to good for that to be the goal.

You realize Dahlin, Mule and Joki are all from the prior administration. This team competed for a playoff spot solely on the spectacular offense. The defense and goaltending were worse for than last year and are over half a goal worse than 3 years ago. Despite the 4th or 5th best offense in the NHL, the team still has a negative differential and allowed nearly 300 goals against. The goal of every NHL team is to compete for championships. This team as currently constructed with only 3 good defenseman and a lack of goaltending is not in a position to compete for a championship. If Levi is the next Ryan Miller that fixes part of the issue, but rolling forward with guys like UPL, Comrie, Bryson, Lyubushkin, Stillman, and Girgensons doesn’t fix the defense.

Sadly, I’m worried that we’ll only see one notable acquisition and that will be on defense. I expect all the forwards to be players on the roster or in our pipeline and it looks like they still believe in UPL. If they only add one D, this team won’t make the playoffs next year either unless Levi stands on his head and runs away with the Calder. There was one answer from DG that was awful. He basically said his players lacked confidence on the PK. I wonder why? Maybe the coaching of the PK sucked and maybe the goaltending also sucked.

Post press conference 2023/24 Buffalo Sabres Skinner TNT Tuch JJP Cozens Quinn Savoie Mitts Greenway Rousek Krebs KO (Jost or Z) Dahlin Samuelsson Power ????? Jokiharju Lyubuskin (Stillman) Levi UPL (Comrie to Roch) After the press conferences, I’m expecting one notable acquisition and that is a single D. This team won’t be taking the next step next season under this plan unless Levi is spectacular.

Here is what I came away with from those two press conferences. 1. Our media have no idea how to ask a question. 2. The playoffs are the goal next season. That’s what the players want and that’s what DG/KA believe. My impression is KA is not sure how to fix the issues without straying from his core principal of draft and develop. 3. KA knows the defense needs fixing, but still thinks Joki is in the mix. They did say that some players didn’t step up like they would have hoped when the Samuelsson went down and as Dahlin played through injuries. Hopefully this means those players will be replaced. Personally I thought Joki didn’t step up. 4. One or two forward spots will be opened to make room for Rousek and Savoie. Adams was very clear that when prospects are ready they’ll be in Buffalo. To me that means it could happen organically with Z and KO choosing not to come back or moving VO out and not re-signing Jost. 5. Goaltending. Levi is part of the tandem next season. For reasons not visible to fans, Marty Biron, the media or any interested observer, KA/Dg still think UPL has a future as an NHL netminder and he might very well share the net with Levi. 6. KA brought up NJs improvement, but doesn’t seem inclined to take the same steps they did. This is disappointing consider the steps they took were mostly to add quality D. 7. KA understands that once he locks up Dahlin and Power he’s going to have cap challenges, which is why he is overly cautious about vet additions. However, I don’t think he can fix the issues with the Sabres without doing what NJ did on defense. Adding another Lyubushkin won’t fix the problem. 8. If there are changes on the coaching staff Bales won’t be one of them. He was specifically mentioned for his excellent work. Overall there wasn’t much specific to glean from these press conferences other than they are happy with the direction of the club and happy with how the season went overall and think they should be a playoff caliber team next year. The status quo roster I posted seems to be very much in play.

That’s much to aggressive for KA, but one can dream. Also if KO returns he isn’t playing above the 4th line. I like the Graves idea and Compher, although someone cheaper (Haula?) seems more likely.

Actually I’m not. JJP was arguably a little better down the stretch. He had 11 pts (4G) in his last 20 games. Quinn had 8 (2g) in his last 20. Both were lacking defensively. JJP was -11 in those games and Quinn -13. If they turnout as you expect (hope?), that would be a fine result, but I think you are selling JJP short.

I appreciate that you’re so sure of what they are now and will be in the future. History proves these types of pronouncements are most likely wrong. Many people, including me, made similar pronouncements on Thompson, Mitts and Skinner. All have proven incorrect. Quinn and JJP had historical seasons in the AHL last year. JJP is younger and is only his 2nd season in NA, yet he was nearly as productive as Quinn. I’ll stick to the Thomas Kyrou comparison.

Krebs was only 21 to start last season. He played 74 games had 26 pts. Thompson at 21 - 65 games 12 pts Casey at 21 - 31g 9 pts Cozens at 21 - 81g 68 pts Skinner at 21 - 71g 54 pts Tuch at 21 - 78g 37 pts Are you noticing a trend? I’m not either. Player development is anything but linear. Given Krebs’ U18/U20 background, I think some patience is in order with him.

It’s funny, but it seems people are down on JJP and high on Quinn, yet Quinn only had 5 more points this past season and only 2 more goals. Both were better than Casey’s first season. I still believe that both have similar upside as each other. They both remind me of Stl’s Thomas and Kyrou. Those two started with 30 pt seasons at a similar age and have blossomed into 70 pts players. I expect both guys to take another step forward next season at Cozen’s wingers.

I believe Casey can become a 70 pt player. When also replacing a young vet like Casey, you have to ask how long until the prospect gives you what Casey does already. Let’s take Kulich for example. He’ll arguably be NHL ready after next season when Casey’s contract expires. Is Kulich a better prospect than JJP? I think they are about the same. Well JJP put up 32 pts and was occasionally scratched from the lineup. A solid rookie year but not anywhere close to what Casey brings. So how long until JJP or Kulich reaches Casey current level? 2 years? More? This team’s window is now. Sometimes it’s best to keep what you have. Admittedly the cap will force KA to move on from some guys, but that won’t be anytime soon here. I do agree however that Casey is one guy who won’t finish his career here. I surmise KA extends him another 3-4 years and then Casey will move on.

He picked the one with the least experience, from the wrong system that cost him nothing to acquire but some cash. Not surprisingly he got exactly what he paid for. Nothing. Honestly his management of the goaltenders has been horrific since day 1 other than getting Levi in trade. It’s the biggest black mark on his record to date and his cheapskate approach cost us the playoffs this season. Oh, by the way all the goalies you mentioned in the fail list outperformed Comrie, except Campbell

I think it would depend on his contract status. Maybe if they hire him we can demand a good draft pick back like we had to pay to get the fired Bylsma. What do you think? A fired Coach was worth a 3rd. I think a 1st this year should cover it. How about this. The cost to talk to him is a 6th and if hired we get the 1st instead.

You know that’s demonstrably not true. There were a ton of goalies traded this summer and nearly all went cheaply. Aidn Hill was traded for a 4th. Georgiev for 2 3rds and a 5th, Husso for a 3rd etc. Toronto paid Ott to take Mzarek and he outplayed Comrie and UPL. A 3rd pick has about an 18% of playing 100 games in the NHL and will probably take 3-5 years to arrive. A 4th even less. The prices paid for those goalies was extremely cheap and KA should have made a similar deal.

Joki and co are bad. I agree that Bush and Stillman will be back, but they truly aren't good players. For a team without cap issues to have depth this poor is inexcusable IMHO. The defense left the goaltenders out to dry more than almost every other team in the NHL. The Sabres allowed 888 HDC against. Only cellar teams ANA, MON, and CBJ allowed more. The D was and remains a huge issue despite the 3 good players. If I were in KA's shoes, I'd get a 4, a 5, and a 7 and send everyone outside of the top 3 packing except Bush. I'd then move on from him after next season. We can do better. Yes, the coaching is a problem as well. It's one of the reasons I gave DG and his staff a grade of C+ Yes, despite the terrible in-zone play by our parade of terrible D, the goalies also stunk. It's clear that under the same difficult conditions, Anderson still succeeded while Comrie and UPL often imploded. Both need to go. UPL does not look improved year over year and it's clear Comrie's success in WPG was partially a product of their system. Our staff should have recognized that Comrie's game maybe wasn't suited for Buffalo's system and found goaltending help elsewhere.

I've been evolving on the issue of KO. In the last months of the season, I was in the camp of sending KO and Z packing. I was and still sort of am in the bring in a Haula or Compher camp, but the Krebs discussion and Mitt's play at center down the stretch have me thinking more about keeping the status quo at forward and carrying 14 forwards for next season. That means re-signing Jost, Z and KO for proven depth and that still leaves one open slot for a smart acquisition. (Savoie also replaces VO). This way we aren't relying on KO and Z to carry the freight of being the responsible forwards, but also keeps their experience and leadership on the team. I really think KO would shine in the playoffs. https://theathletic.com/4424414/2023/04/18/buffalo-sabres-kevyn-adams-offseason-questions/ The article does a nice job of spelling out the remaining issues with the roster for next year and how they could be addressed. The six questions are 1. What happens in net? 2. What does the future hold for Victor Olofsson? 3. Will KO and Z return? 4. How will Buffalo upgrade its defense? 5. Will the Sabres clear the way for any other prospect? Rousek? Kulich? Savoie? 6. Can the Sabres get more extensions done? Dahlin & Power top the list.