Thorny

Scorn for whom? My only issue is with the handle on twitter framing the numbers the way they did. But it’s twitter. They have no idea what they are doing.

That high level take also isn’t even accurate re: pre season expectations. It might not be FAR off, but it’s off. The consensus was higher than low 80s The language, and data, wasn’t “around .500” I’m with you on this. There are plenty trying to re-write this. No dice folks

90 point average, ya. Just did this in another thread Its gonna depend on how we finish. Just the way it is. Look at the numbers in the poll, read the thread. People aren’t saying “around .500” and low 80s. The talk is playoff bubble / high 80s low 90s

Better said than me

There was absolutely reason to believe Comrie wouldnt establish as a starter, though, because he had *never done it*. I posted about this exact fact all offseason. Being “not terrible” wasn’t what we were attempting to do by signing Comrie. So, sure, play *that* poor may have been hard to predict, but actual GOOD or even average play, over the amount of games we needed it for - KA certainly bears responsibility for a swing and miss with Comrie KA and his advanced stats team gambled that Comrie could extrapolate those earlier numbers over a sample size he had never come close to doing, and it absolutely blew up in his face. Thats not unpredictable at all. It’s exactly why people say sample size matters. Comrie struggling wasn’t unpredictable. I predicted it.

While the topic in aim is obviously facetious.. I have literally no idea what the assistant coaches, individual staff, etc etc are doing relative to the goals set for them so there’s zero basis for me to make a claim on what should happen with their job status. The general manager is responsible for managing, generally, everyone: buck always stops there. Imo you need to fail a hardline goal twice to merit canning, save a total explosion the first time. Adams isn’t on the hot seat right now. Imo, he isn’t next season, either. But if we fail to make the playoffs next year, he’s managing for his job in 24/25, absolutely. Finally, coach gets the microscope for day to day performance. As of now, i think we see some regression to the mean from this awful streak and have another good stretch in us to end. Granato wasn’t on the hot seat till next year imo but, if the collapse continues for 12 more games, there’s probably a strong objective argument he should be fired. I don’t think that happens though, the full 12 games part and the firing, in either scenario

Agree. Totally watching for it - I’m not one to write off the rest because I’ve been preaching the opposite and do every year: every game factors into our final point total, and picking one number? That’s the best one

What are we doing here... look: 63 voters 100 points - 6 90+ points - 27 Between 80/90 (say, 85) - 23 Between 70/80 (say, 75) - 8 Last place (pick whatever number, 68?) - buffalonil 6x100 + 27x90 + 23x85 + 8x75 + 1x68 = 600 + 2430 + 1955 + 600 + 68 = ...5653. Dividing this number by voters gets the average. 5653/63 =90 points Thanks for coming to my math ted talk

Nah. The numbers you just used have almost 50% saying playoffs or 90 points. 85 would be a fair middle ground if the rest were 80 and below. But there’s another almost 40% we are assigning to 80-90, so let’s say THAT number is 85. And finally, the 14% at 80 and below. Thats a high 80s breakdown mathematically 48%: 90+ 36%: ~85 14%: 80- The nearly half saying 90 or playoffs pulls much harder on that ~85 than the 14% underselling

If Levi is capable of being the best player on a first place Sabres team, I certainly take it And run

Your problem isn’t with the metrics, it’s with the letters that come before “metrix” in the twitter handle in question. Just because the numbers attempt to measure data objectively doesn’t mean the interpretations of said numbers aren’t wildly prone to bias

A lot of it speaks to the baked in mentality of being a Sabres fan in 2023 - “the key is to not.” Not. Do less - patience. Future - Tim Murray bad. Win now bad. Win later. In reality, the key isn’t to “not” do, anything. DO upgrade the “awful” goaltending. There is no try.

If you check the expectations thread around here most of us had it at ~ high 80s low 90s w/o expecting playoffs

I’ve been beating this drum for a while, as you can see above. We simply need to finish with 82 or more

And presumably we need to “play our game” to develop, anyways, regardless of where the goals sit re: winning. There simply isn’t any course of action available for KA this summer than to pay the cost to bring in a starter they can be reasonably confident in. That’s certainly not squinting hard and long enough at some advanced metrics ala Comrie, either. Not a buy low opportunity. A completely necessary addition that the rebuild likely depends on or just hope the Fort doesn’t collapse before Levi takes over the “perennial vezina winner” slot Adams has been holding for him unblocked. Either of the two Scoring isn’t at a premium in today’s game

Just gotta hope they can right the ship a bit over last 12. Playoffs are finished with but still some runway left to shift things

I’ve been as mad since but don’t think I’ve broken anything since Kasparitus (sp? (Just kidding I don’t care)). I don’t think I had anything left to smash after that regardless

7-13 since the break - - - Just.....just finish above .500, please do this at least, and try and have a big offseason. That’s all I got. Would be first time above .500 in 11 years. Even .500 on the dot would take us 10 years back

I thought it was you can only move UP 10 spots ie 11 and up can win could be way off

Well, we are officially in position to have an outside shot at Bedard: 22nd and below have a shot, I believe

Montour won’t be stopped. Apparently now amazing

@Gatorman0519i said personally I *don’t* like the “standings don’t matter” thing

For me, I had (still have) the earliest the GM could potentially be fired as after the 24/25 season. Next year, 23/24 playoffs are expectation. But that doesn’t mean falling short means canning. Miss in 24/25, yes, you can’t go 5 seasons as GM and not make the playoffs, that should be curtains. Granato however I thought could be open to replacement next season/after next season, with poor performance. Honestly, if it was me, this late season stretch could get bad enough, his status for next year could be on the table again. But it’s not my choice and there’s no way, absolutely no way, KA diverges in that way this summer, imo - - - honestly this line of conversation is just depressing after all these years. It’s closing in on “who cares” territory