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DarthEbriate

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Everything posted by DarthEbriate

  1. Levi will make it in Buffalo or elsewhere. He's not going to be a legend, but a solid tandem guy is within reach. Leenders maybe. As long as Adams is GM, Leinonen will get a fair (or unfair) look in Sabreland. Mrtka, Novikov, Strbak. And I think Osburn: the kid sees the game well. Kleber is the one I don't know, but I assume he will because of his draft status and size. He'll get chances. I do think Poltapov will arrive as a 3W. How long he's in Buffalo I don't know, but I think he gets a full season in the bottom 6 and acquits himself fine which leads him to a good little 2-3 years at minimum. Kozak is already in if can stay healthy. RosΓ©n, Γ–stlund, Helenius, Wahlberg, Zeimer, and Richard make it for me. They all can fit on a roster if it's constructed well.
  2. Note, if you only got a loser point in every game you'd be 0-0-82. In the offseason, the GM would say "We were really competitive. We were a .500 hockey team last year." And the fans would tell the GM, "Go to hell. We never won a single game. We finished 10 points back of the final wild card and are drafting #9 overall." You have to win more game than you lose except in extremely rare cases as @bg17 notes below. When you do lose, get the loser points if you can. It's like in the NFL. In 2010, the Seahawks went 2-6 vs. the AFC West and NFC South... but the rest of their division also sucked against those like opponents. They won their division with a 7-9 record (and won their home playoff game). They then got trounced in the divisional round (they scored 21 points in the 4th quarter and lost by two scores) -- because they weren't a good team (yet). If they'd have been competing for the wild card they'd have finished as the 8th seed and 3 games back.
  3. Yes -- my response to your initial comment was that if you only looked at last year you wouldn't see it as a big anomaly. But taken together, last year and this year have seen a really big jump beyond the existing trend. It won't compete with @matter2003's high danger data, but another thing to take into account: goalie gear restrictions. Hasek and Brodeur famously were rocking sweaters 4 sizes too big, etc. But since 2005-06 post-lockout, there have been multiple changes to goalie pad sizes and even an additional jersey regulation in 2018. Just like the other sports -- the Shield wants more offense.
  4. Last year and this season (so far) have been abnormally low for team save percentages. We're still early in 25-26 so there's likely some clutter and teams will tighten up a bit as the season goes on, but it's notable. Team percentages also include empty net goals, so you could be seeing a bit more "risk + screw it, we're down 2 with 5 minutes left, let's pull the goalie early" goals than in previous seasons. Here are team save percentages going back a bit: 2025 .890 2024 .893 2023 .898 2022 .899 2021 .902 2020 .903 2019 .905 2018 .905 2017 .908 2016 .910 2015 .910 3 on 3 OT in effect 2014 .911 And you go back to the dead puck era thinking it'll be monstrously higher... No, not really. (Makes you appreciate Hasek all the more.) 2004 .908 2003 .906 2002 .905 2001 .901 2000 .902 1999 .906 As to why. I don't think it's the goaltenders themselves: they are positionally sound, make spectacular saves, etc. There are subpar goalies, yes. But we've seen much better shot selection in recent years. Teams aren't just shooting from the blue line and hoping, they're much more patient with the puck. Power plays have had some abnormally high success rates (three teams had a 28+ PP% last year and the league average was over 21% -- which is rising in general in recent years). Since it was introduced 3 on 3 overtimes have changed from "skate and shoot" to possess and exit the zone, but maintain possession at all costs -- working for the high danger shot. (Luukkonen was great last night and made 5 saves, but prior to that this season the Sabres had given up 3 goals on 5 shots to rock a .400 sv%). I think in general it's the offensive coaches putting analytics and video to good effect.
  5. I said six teams are under "NHL .500". This is an important distinction because NHL .500 is a fabricated term that tries to combine two different systems: W/L and loser points that impact points percentage. They're not the same units of measure. True .500 = W/L. How many have they won? 5. How many have they lost? 7. That's it. That's what .500 is. NHL .500 is a fabrication that allows GMs/coaches/fans to ignore losses if they choose. It's useless. Like I said: Six of 32 teams are below NHL .500.
  6. I don't acknowledge "NHL .500" because it is valueless. There are currently six teams in the entire league below NHL .500. You want to be in the playoffs, you need the DeLuca. You need to out-point your opponents.
  7. That's 5-7. Alternately, to look at it in points: The Sabres have 13 points in twelve games. Their opponents have 14 points in those same twelve games. That's a losing record.
  8. It's becoming the opposite of last season's winless in 13. (3 points)
  9. What's wrong with ties? These guys on either team can't even put the puck on net.
  10. All the coordinates are set. It's now or never.
  11. Tuch just trying to pass the game away (good backcheck though).
  12. Oi. Tuch. Playoff pocketed whistles are not in effect yet. That's not for another 6 months.
  13. Yup. It's his preseason. (Though, this is consistent throughout his entire career. It's always preseason?)
  14. So... you would also be cheering for the Twins (yay!) and a strike from the players union and a lost baseball season?
  15. There are scenarios where I would root for the Bills in a Super Bowl, but none of those scenarios are active yet. Why, though? The Dodgers have won the WS numerous times in franchise history (8 - after looking it up) and the Bills haven't won any. There's no causation or correlation.
  16. Looking at the rest of the game logs: that is the Sabres' first goal with under 2:00 remaining in a period this season. Bichette!
  17. They haven't scored one this season. However, the Sabres gave up one in each of the last 3 games: WSH, BOS, CBJ, (one at 18:33 vs. TOR so almost 4 games in a row.) Earlier in the season: ENGs vs. MTL and BOS. 5 times in eleven games, and nearly a 6th.
  18. Two good rush opportunities unmarked in the slot on the PP -- one in the first period, and one on this one. Would've been nice to score on at least half of those.
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