So let's take a look at all 30 teams in the NHL and the likelihood to get Stamkos. I'll categorize them and put a likelihood from 1-10 next to them.
Teams with no chance for cap reasons:
Chicago Blackhawks 1
Pittsburgh Penguins 1
Washington Capitals 1
Dallas Stars 1
St. Louis Blues 1
San Jose Sharks 1
Teams with no chance due to lack of talent, appeal:
Columbus Blue Jackets 2
Colorado Avalanche 2
Ottawa Senators 2
Winnipeg Jets 2
Arizona Coyotes 1
New Jersey Devils 1
Edmonton Oilers 2
Teams with slight chance but highly unlikely:
Los Angeles Kings (doubtful they can maneuver cap) 3
Minnesota Wild (appealing spot but not a good fit) 2
Nashville Predators (great spot but cap too tough) 2
Anaheim Ducks (would need to move earth to make cap work) 2
Carolina Hurricanes (jury still out on where their young talent will go) 3
Teams reported to show interested but unlikely:
Boston Bruins (they're a team on the way down) 4
Calgary Flames (reportedly interested but too far away) 3
Florida Panthers (their offseason shows they're going a different route) 3
Vancouver Canucks (they're rumored to want him but not a good situation) 3
This leaves us with eight teams that I think will have somewhat serious conversations with Stamkos:
Philadelphia Flyers, Buffalo Sabres, Toronto Maple Leafs, Montreal Canadiens, New York Islanders, New York Rangers, Tampa Bay Lightning, Detroit Red Wings
Let's rank them.
8. Philadelphia Flyers
I think they'll get involved and have heard their named mentioned only recently on this. They've got some talent and just surprised in the playoffs. The issue is the same as it always has been in Philadelphia, though: the blueline and back. Their goaltending isn't solid and their defense is old, expensive and prone to injuries. They've got talent with Giroux, Voracek and Simmonds but I think their flaws have been exposed and there's just not enough here to get serious. We'll likely hear their name, but I don't see a way they make this work financially or with their current setup. They get a 5 from me.
7. New York Rangers
They've become a "serious suitor" lately. There was always a feeling they could get involved, as with Philly. The problem with the Rangers is that they've still got to do some capwork to make their current situation work and would have to do even more to make Stamkos fit. Gutting their team just to welcome in Stamkos seems like a waste of time for both parties. Lundqvist seems to be the only thing making this team relevant at the moment and he's getting older. The defense is overpaid and getting worse. They also get a 5.
6. Montreal Canadiens
This is the team I would probably say as my favorites had they not gotten exposed this season. Carey Price getting hurt showed that there just isn't a whole lot of talent to go around. Couple that with the fact that they haven't exactly shown a lot of love for their superstar (PK Subban) and you get a bit of a volatile situation. They've held on too long to a coach that has shown a tendency to play favorites and has taken minutes from a player who showed elite offensive talent at times (Alex Galchenyuk). They're either going to get right back to it when Price returns or fall apart. Then they'll have to figure out how to pay Subban, Price and Stamkos. I give them a 5.
5. New York Islanders
There has been a whole bunch of talk about the appeal of playing with close friend John Tavares. They are likely to lose guys like Frans Nielsen and Kyle Okposo, so the idea is that they could replace their contributions (and then some) with a single player in Stamkos. Unfortunately for them I think there is still some trepidation about the voodoo of this organization. It hasn't gone well in Brooklyn (though those fans were electric in the postseason) and they haven't been relevant in some time. Who would be the appealing wingers for him since Tavares would likely take the only decent linemates available? I'll give them a 6.
4. Tampa Bay Lightning
This is where the incumbent lands for me. They've got everything Stamkos should want, but they've got boatloads of talent to pay in the next two offseasons. If Stamkos was a free agent a year ago I would look at them as a virtual lock, but Kucherov has approached Stamkos' status as the best forward on the team and Hedman appears to be the most important skater on the team. There is some question marks in goals as there is talk of a Bishop trade and there's no way of knowing if Vasilevsky is the long-term answer right now. They land a 7 from me.
3. Toronto Maple Leafs
This is home. This is the hockey mecca. But they're the New York Knicks of hockey, not the Los Angeles Lakers. They haven't won in an eternity. The appeal is the future as they've got as much young talent as anybody in the league (yes, as much as Buffalo). The big issue is that Stamkos would have to accept AT LEAST two or three years of failed seasons. They might sniff the playoffs but they aren't a serious contender in the Eastern Conference. Is Stamkos willing to collect money (hello, taxes) and coach up a group of kids while other teams skate the cup around their rinks? That's a tough question. It'll come down to how much he values coming home if Toronto is to be a top suitor. Mike Babcock could be a trump card. They also get a 7.
2. Buffalo Sabres
I wish I could confidently put us at one, but I think the top four teams are nearly interchangeable. Ranking teams is acting like I'm in the mind of Stamkos, but there's definitely a reason to consider Buffalo as an appealing destination. Their teardown was done a year ago. They showed some real potential down the stretch with plenty of exciting young talent. The reason they should be more appealing than Toronto is that they've got a great mix of veteran talent in there, too. Adding Stamkos to the forward group instantly makes it as appealing a group as any in the league. The money will be equal for most of these top teams, but Buffalo has the money to get into a bidding war if that's what Stamkos and Murray want. Goaltending is still a question. Buffalo gets an 8.
1. Detroit Red Wings
I said a while back they were my favorite to make this move and I still have them VERY SLIGHTLY over the other three in my top four. If you really look at it I don't think there's a ton to really put Detroit over the top, but there's a history here. They've got the streak that makes them appear to still be relevant and are loaded with young forwards. Their biggest flaw might be that their young forwards, outside of Dylan Larkin, don't appear to be the truly-elite prospects Toronto and Buffalo offer. Outside of Larkin the others seem to mostly need to play with elite playmakers to really matter. Are his linemates going to be relying on him too much or will Stamkos be able to rely on them? I could cast a lot of doubt, but I think there is absolutely an appeal to playing in "Hockeytown." Goaltending is also a question. I give them an 8.
This is my list, but it got a little more crowded as I went on. The top four really is going to be a serious race. I see the appeal of all three. I would go back to Tampa if the money is equal, but I think Tampa is the one team on this list that won't match the dollars (and maybe not the term). If they do I could see him making the "easy" choice (easy doesn't mean wrong).
