TrueBlueGED
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Posts posted by TrueBlueGED
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39 minutes ago, dudacek said:
I understand why analysts prefer it; it’s easier to model.
It’s still flawed like plus-minus because it calls players into account for things they have no control over and fails to do the same for things they do.
Risto makes a horrible giveaway at the offensive blueline sending Pageau off on a breakaway. Pageau goes for the deke, the puck slips off his stick and dribbles into the corner. Risto’s Corsi is neutral.
Montour makes a horrible giveaway at the offensive blueline sending Pageau off on a breakaway. Risto hustles back hard and forces Pageau out wide where he can only get off a harmless bad angle shot easily handled by Hutton. Risto gets a negative Corsi.
Joki makes a nice breakout pass to Larry and heads off on a change. Larry and the boys grind the Sens down for the next 30 seconds, peppering Anderson with four shots before he finally smothers the puck for a whistle. Risto comes on for Joki and stands at the blueline watching all this happen and gets a plus four Corsi.
Montour takes a shot off the ankle and is hobbling around in pain, useless. Tkachuk drives the net forcing Risto to play the 2-1 situation. He does this well, making Tkachuk shoot, which Hutton stops. Risto overpowers Tkachuk as he gets the rebound, pushing him off balance as he gets off a soft tapper on the rebound which Hutton blocks and swallows up the loose puck. Risto’s Corsi count, minus 2.
Corsi might be a better data management model, or predictive model, but as a data collection model, it shares all the flaws of +/-.
Im pretty sure guys like you understand this, just like you understand that all Risto’s “horrible” 47 per cent Corsi really means is that the Sabres are typically outshot 33-27 over 60 minutes of his even strength ice time.
But I’m also pretty sure the 14-year-old screaming about how terrible he is on Twitter does not. In the arena of public opinion it creates more noise than it eliminates.
You know you're on the wrong side of an argument when you have to do this.
And that hypothetical 6 shot differential is significant over time. To make life easy, let's say Risto plays 20 minutes per game. That's 2 shots per game, or 164 over the course of the season. At a league average shooting of 9.11, you're looking at about 15 goals. That's significant.
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18 minutes ago, dudacek said:
The way Corsi is embraced and +/- dismissed when they have exactly the same flaws is an ongoing mystery to me, particularly when +/- measures the all-important goal, while Corsi measures the much-less significant shot.
Whatever it’s value, the guy has improved his +/- by 40. Saying he’s having the exact same season is willfully blind.
It shouldn't be. It takes about 5 seasons worth of goal data to produce results which are as predictive as 1 season of shot data (it might not be exactly 5:1, but it's something like that). Goal data is heavily influenced by shooting and save percentages, both of which vary wildly from year to year and take a long time to show a coherent pattern we can reasonably draw inferences from.
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Just now, freester said:
I don't think Montour sucks, rather he is a solid bottom 4 defensemen. I feel like Botteril overpaid to acquire Montour, and he is not much better than Guhle. We are also overstocked at RD and I think Botteril is going to overpay Montour on his new contract.
Guhle can't crack the lineup as a regular on a bad team. Montour is considerably better.
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2 minutes ago, Randall Flagg said:
What about that season with the Ducks? 22 mins in a WCF run, Fowler, Lindholm, Manson the other guys?
Meh. Once upon a time, Andrew Hammond looked like the second coming of Hasek for a similar stretch of games. Brian Bickell was a clutch playoff hero.
Montour is fine, I certainly don't hate him. But he's pretty expendable for me.
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1 minute ago, darksabre said:
Montour is fine. He's like Sekera.
Oh man, I miss Reggie. Such a good player who was wholly under appreciated.
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1 minute ago, CallawaySabres said:
If he trades Risto, that is 100% my cue to abandon season tickets next year. I fully expect it to happen though because idiot boy only trades the players I want to keep in exchange for players that will be on another team within 2 years.
Funny, trading Risto would me by cue to believe in the team's direction ?
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Just now, Randall Flagg said:
Ooh, a "Team Montour" member.
Team Montour is fine: nfreeman, Flagg I guess?, darksabre?, ... ?
Team Montour sucks: most other postersHe doesn't suck, but you'd have to do some work to convince me he's a top-4 guy on a good team unless you're structured with a prime Keith-Seabrook style pair where you're really a top-2 bottom-4 setup.
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3 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:
It will be Miller. The best of them and with the best contract because our team is stupid.
This has the sad ring of truth.
3 minutes ago, Randall Flagg said:I can't believe these guys keep typing this and hitting "send tweet"
And yet, they remain considerably better at their job than our GM is at his.
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17 minutes ago, WildCard said:
You guys all realize he's not going anywhere right?
I've been screaming from the mountaintops since the offseason he isn't as safe as many presume. I shall continue to scream it. I'm not saying he will be fired, just that it's very much in play.
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8 minutes ago, dudacek said:
How about the cap hit of $5.2 million we took for two years and 23 goals from Conor Sheary?
Sheary is probably Botterill's third-best forward acquisition. Take that as you will.
2 minutes ago, darksabre said:How about the 8.275 mil of nothing in exchange for Ryan O'Reilly's "costly" 7.5mil?
I remember the days of you defending the O'Reilly trade because of cap space. And here we are using that space on a bunch of zeroes.
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47 minutes ago, darksabre said:
Nope.
Cap Genius *waves hands provocatively*Maybe it's semantics since they're related, but I don't think cap management is the problem. The problem is talent evaluation. Botterill legitimately thinks the forwards he acquires are good when they are not.
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Botterill is bad at his job? Water wet, sky blue, etc.
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7 hours ago, dudacek said:
This was true in the second half of last season. It's not true now.
The flip side of this is "What good is being able to make a crisp breakout pass if your ass is on the ice and the puck is on the other guy's stick?" But no, Pilut is clearly better than Risto. Let me show you the chart.
@Randall Flagg said it above and I think you've even mentioned it in the past. Let Risto eliminate the man and Lawrence move the puck.
It is. Risto is doing the same swan song he does every year.
As to your flip side, that's fair, but you're the one who said winning a puck battle is the single most important characteristic ?
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4 hours ago, tom webster said:
Again, experience is overrated. Look what Salic and Yzerman have done. You just have to surround yourself with smart people and have a plan in place.
It's worth noting that Sakic spent a lot of time being terrible before the Avs turned it around. I agree with you, just don't think he's a good example.
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34 minutes ago, dudacek said:
If someone offers a 2nd on Larsson you have to take it, but that’s not happening.
What might happen though is Larsson or Larsson and something for an Asplund-level prospect you think can play next year.
I value Larry like @Randall Flagg does, but I don’t think he’s coming back next year.He’s earned his UFA status and I suspect he’s tired of losing.
I really wonder about the effort level we’ll get down the stretch from any UFAs who aren’t traded.
Hopefully the team has some idea of his intentions. I think Larsson is worth considerably more than a 2nd round pick to a team that needs to start winning, so if he's open to staying, I'm not moving him. We have 2 effective lines, I'd like to keep them while trying to work on the other 2.
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44 minutes ago, dudacek said:
Thanks for this.
To me, safely winning that contested puck is the most fundamentally crucial skill for playing defence in hockey, but it never seems part of the discourse. Risto is excellent at it. I think of this every time someone calls him a tire fire in his own zone.
Semi-related, the best forward we have in these situations is “soft” Sam Reinhart. Risto does it with pure power and Sam with an effortless barely noticed stick tap, but they both get results and their coaches see that.
Because he is incapable of clearing the zone. Winning the battle only to lose the war type of thing. What good is winning a contested puck if you proceed to fling it to the other team?
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8 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:
Actually Dahlin is probably the best D on the roster. He is certainly the best offensively. His in zone D needs work but my guess is only McCabe and Jokiharju are better defensively.
He isn’t close to his peak but the difference in his own zone from the start of the year til now is substantial.
PS Duda you need compare his game right now to Miller. Miller wishes on his best day that he is what Dahlin is now.
You think McCabe is good defensively? Yikes.
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6 hours ago, jsb said:
Despite all the gloom and doom concerning our forwards, I think the Sabres are still counting on Cozens, Casey and Tage to be contributors down the road, besides picking up a UFA this offseason or something to good to be true becomes available, I don't think the Sabres are going to do much of anything and if they continue to go on a little run here, they may not be selling much this trade season either. I'm going to continue my optimistic view and say we aren't that far from contending again even if it isn't this year. In fact with better goalkeeping we may already be a playoff team this year IMO.
I actually don't think we're far from a playoff team either as far as the number of acquisitions required...it's just that those acquisitions (top-6 C and RW) are somewhat sizeable. I will say, that if the plan is waiting on Cozens, Mittelstadt, and Thompson....Botts is cooked.
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Yea, but when was the last time he cross checked someone after the play? Trade the soft bum.
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4 hours ago, dudacek said:
I perceive them as offence-first, physically limited wingers who don’t really add to our core long-term. Marchesseault is clearly better than the other two, but, I suspect that like the other two he will likely be less productive here than where he is now.
Age, roster need, acquisition price.
There is no greater roster need than an infusion of offensive talent at forward.
4 hours ago, Randall Flagg said:Generally with you, but there's an important difference between Jon and those guys.
hes real good
i love fired up dudacek
True, is Tuch that much worse? My guess would have been that itd be way harder to acquire Alex due to age and similar level of play
Well, he's having a terrible season. 17 points in 42 games.
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39 minutes ago, dudacek said:
I’m getting sick of the types of players Botterill seems to focus on.
Look, nothing against Marchesseault, he’s a legit top 6 forward, but he is pushing 30, is 5’9” and won’t come cheap.
It just smacks of the Sheary and Vesey moves transferred to a larger canvas and if we trade Risto or Monty for him, I will be very upset.
If you’re talking to Vegas about a forward, talk Alex Tuch.
I see no reason to target a considerably worse player just because of stylistic preference.
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7 hours ago, nfreeman said:
I didn’t realize that he’s only 29.
He needs to get TF over it, report to Rochester, work his butt off, not complain and get himself another contract.
He’s still good enough of get paid to play in the NHL for another few years.
If he's not good enough to player for us, I'm not sure this is true. His skating used to be good enough to cover up his other problems, but now he can't skate, so not sure what value he brings
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6 hours ago, erickompositör72 said:
Confident JBot can get it done?
Trocheck is too good for Botterill to be interested in...he only wants bad to mediocre forwards.
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9 hours ago, WildCard said:
Paging @TrueBlueGED, you can finally leave the bunker
8 hours ago, Randall Flagg said:At this point he's probably known that bunker longer than any other shelter in his life. It's home now and asking him to leave would be cruel
Ironically, I did move today. It also moved upon catching up on this news.
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Buffalo Bills: 2020-2021
in The Aud Club
Posted
I'll try to find the numbers later, but it's incredibly rare for teams playing Wild Card weekend to get to, let alone win, the Super Bowl.