LGR4GM

I didn't average their first 200 games. Also, your theory is everyone gets better, they don't.

No you shouldn't to all the bolded. Most of those guys are either A. old or B. over 200 games already.

In 2023 the Sabres goal totals dropped. They had 293goals in 2022 and only 244goals in 2023 for a drop of 49g. Obviously as a result this team was worse. The question is do they have enough scoring to get back up closer to the 290 mark? And also how many goals do they need to just make the playoffs? Let's answer the 2nd question first, right around 270g is a solid number to make the playoffs. Last year 12 of the playoff teams had 270+/-5 or higher in goals with only 4 teams falling below that. For Buffalo then the goal should be 270g. Now the first question, do we have enough scoring for 290, no. Not unless you think the defense is going to put up about 100 goals. Right now I have the Sabres defense coming in around 40goals+/-5. The forwards clock in around 198goals+/-10. If you give everyone the benefit of the doubt and math it out we end up at 253goals as the max and 238 as the minimum. The only way to exceed that 253 top end is either A. to bring in more scoring (which is why everyone wants another 20-30g scorer) or B. up the number of shots the team takes, especially their top guys. I think asking Lindy to create a system with more shots is possible. I also think that Quinn and Benson are wild cards because there is not enough shots and goals for their career sh% number to have much stability. Is Quinn going to get 23g or can he exceed that? What about Benson only getting 17? Is it possible Buffalo can hit that 270 threshold with the current roster? Sure, we are 17 goals away at the top end. If players stay healthy and Ruff is good, we could do it. But players will get injured and frankly there is a lack of proven depth. Can we get to 270 with the current roster? Yes. There is a path there with some modest improvements to get the extra 20ish goals we need. I would feel a lot better about it though if we brought in 1 more top 6 forward. Last part: You may ask how I got these numbers? I took every players career sh% (some got a little bump due to their last few years being clear signs of improvement) and then roughed out their average shots. A few due to lack of data require some guesstimation work but in the end I will post what I got in the raw numbers for debate. I didn't used games played as I feel that shots and sh% are better. Players can miss games and make up for them with shots or a better shot percentage. I also think sh% and shots is more stable.

Cozens had 31 when he shot at 14.7% on 211shots. Cozens typically seems to shoot at 10%ish considering his other years. Now last year he managed just 9% and managed less shots with 200 even. So if I use his career av sh% of 10.4% and toss in 200 shots it gets me... about 21 goals. So either he has 2 years of below average sh% which seems unlikely or he has to up his total by about 100. If Cozens dropped a 22-25g season, I would consider that very successful. If he figured out his shot and drops 30g+ than I would be surprised and very happy. Either he shoots more (by a lot) or he has to improve his shot by about 5%. Hence my response. PS. to anyone who tries to the "what about TAGE!" in response. I wrote multiple posts about Tage's sudden increase in scoring and how his sh% was more likely to be in the range for when his points went up. That isn't what is happening here. Cozens has already taken 571 shots in the last 3 years so his sh% is probably starting to stabilize around that 10.4%.

9th overall

I would be surprised if Cozens had 30g.

87 points seems like a logical outcome. Even with Quinn and Benson, Buffalo just isn't experienced enough or talented enough. Injuries will happen to someone and that depth replacing it is bad or untested.

Make what? If they miss the playoffs for 14 straight years there's no reason to stay around while Terry is here.

I don't like the Byram for Mitts trade. It didn't make sense and doesn't move the needle. Maybe Byram figures it out this year, all we can hope for.

If this team misses the playoffs, I'll have no more use for them. Not while Terry owns them.

Benson might be, but to assume a Rookie like Rosen or Kulich can drop 30ish goals and 30ish assists as a rookie is highly questionable.

Adams has not done enough. This team might make the playoffs but it won't do anything once it gets there. There is not enough depth, they are still insanely young (detroit has 5 guys 25 and under and Buffalo has like 12), and I shedding skinner without using that money is just dumb.

The "we agree not to match if you give us" trade:

These trades aren't even remotely comparable. Laine isn't a star player and hasn't been even close to one in years.

And if not, you are stuck with his 8.7mil dollar deal this year and next.

Wanna go dumpster diving?

Never confuse aggression with being correct. Perfect example, it was aggressive to trade Mitts for Byram, but I'm unsure it was correct. Yes, it may improve his team. How would it improve Buffalo? Rfa's have to sign the offer sheet, these 2 clearly are getting overpaid with the future of them being better in mind. I've seen a ton of complaints here about Adams paying players before they prove themselves. None of those players will make it to rfa and I see no reason any of them would want to sign an offer sheet elsewhere.

Just going through the names here to say who is a lefty or a righty shot Lefties: Matthews, Hughes, Larkin, Tkachuk and Tkachuk, Connor, Robertson, Miller, Guentzel, Keller, Boldy Righties: Eichel, Boeser, that's it. I think Tage has a better chance to make the roster because he is probably better than some of these guys and he shoots right.

You wanted another lhd? Why?

Miller and Guentzel. Tage has size, the US will value that. Boldy is interesting but he's a lw. Remember, Tage does shoot right handed, they may need a 40g rhs. I think any of this players can shift to wing as needed. Not saying it will happen, just that Helenius is a favorite in the Finland national team eyes and if IF, he progresses over the next 2 years, I think he is on the team.