rakish
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Posts posted by rakish
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@WildCard got me to run my model midseason, I ran the top 60 off of EliteProspects. Historically (I've done this 5 or 6 years now), my top 10 isn't that good, it's really the later rounds that I do better, that said:
1 Marco Rossi 3299
2 Alexis Lafrenière 2594
3 Seth Jarvis 2580
4 Quinton Byfield 2578
5 Cole Perfetti 2453
6 Lucas Raymond 1882
7 Alexander Holtz 1624
8 Rodion Amirov 1542
9 Connor Zary 1466
10 Anton Lundell 1455-
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3 minutes ago, rakish said:
I have Jarvis at 2. As liger points out, Jarvis has a big scoring gap on the rest of his team, my model loves that.
His 2018 wasn't good, so 2's a bit high, but his 2019 was really good.
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On 2/25/2020 at 3:22 PM, WildCard said:
Do you, Liger, and/or Crusdaer have any thoughts on him?
I have Jarvis at 2. As liger points out, Jarvis has a big scoring gap on the rest of his team, my model loves that.
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3 minutes ago, WildCard said:
Do you, Liger, and/or Crusdaer have any thoughts on him?
Don't know on Jarvis, I used to do a Christmas valuation (my computer scrapes for about a week or two), but I don't valuate twice anymore. So I won't have an opinion until May or June.
I did do 18 year old valuation this year from the 2019 draft, my model thinks Cozens is a lot like Cody Glass.
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2 hours ago, WildCard said:
Any idea where Seth Jarvis is ranked?
https://www.eliteprospects.com/player/201952/seth-jarvis
24 (elite) and 32 (future consids)
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My math in my head isn't what it once was, closer to 22 or 23% with Malkin
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I got about 18% if the time with Malkin, mostly played with McCann
His 5-5 scoring rate would put him second on Buffalo.
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3 minutes ago, Randall Flagg said:
If I get time this offseason, I'd be willing to learn your definitions and watch a dozen full games of the Sabres and another team and track all passes if you want. Then I could come on your podcast and talk about results? I know we had talked about getting me on there and that would give something to talk about
We can talk about anything you want to talk about
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On 2/13/2020 at 5:48 PM, Taro T said:
He's made at least 1 (and typically 2-3) of those "move the goalie" passes each of the last 3 games at a minimum. Wondering if we have differing definitions on what constitutes that pass?
So for those of you who aren't loyal listeners to the podcast. What Taro is talking about is that I'm counting the number of passes in the Sabres highlights that 'Move the Goaltender'. I believe the Sabres organization maximize the number of shots (listen to how many times Rob Ray, who talks to coaches, uses the phrase 'Pucks to the net') rather that maximize high percentage opportunities.
Taro's right, It is true that there is a lot of borderline passes that can be perceived either way, it's not a scientific count. I'm also only counting passes on highlights, since I can't compare all of Buffalo's passes vs. other team on highlights. That said, to Eichel:
The first 29 games Eichel set up people 22 times, 12 to Olofsson, the other 10 fairly evenly distributed, so almost 1 a game during highlights, actual count would obviously be higher.
Games 30-53 (24 games), Eichel set up people 5 times, or about once every 5 games.
Since then, until the Columbus game, 54-57 (4 games) 3 passes in 4 games
The Columbus game 2 passes.
So yes, the past week Eichel has resumed passing the puck after a long stretch of not passing the puck.How does the team do on passes that create opportunites?
Eichel 32
Dahlin 19
Reinhart 17
Johansson 16
Skinner 14
Vesey 10
Olofsson 8
Okposo 7
Sheary 7
Risto 7
Larsson 6
...As a comparison, before I got bored, I was charting Vegas (because they are mostly a collection of players other teams didn't really like) games. So in about 2/3 the number of games, 36 instead of 56:
March 24
Stone 22
Pacioretti 21
Karlsson 13
Smith 16
Stastny 7
Carrier 11
Eakin 8
Glass 7The dropoff on the Sabres after Eichel is huge, where Vegas, as a team, moves the puck horizontal. Coaching? GM? I think it's a little of both.
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1 hour ago, Taro T said:
Interesting question. Would rather have seen how many Olofsson would have getting 82 with Eichel.
Eichel stopped passing the puck to other players around game 29 against Calgary, so Olofsson became an assist guy between 29 and when he was injured. I'll be watching to see if Eichel goes back to how he played at the beginning of the season.
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9 minutes ago, Randall Flagg said:
The more I think about this, the more shocked I am. My case against Bylsma (and I guess Murray?) centered solely on the fact that our offense couldn't sustainably create given our transition preferences. The Sabres were fifth-last in xGF and scoring chances during their two years here.
Botterill made it worse. Three offseasons and 220 NHL games later, we have fallen to dead last since he came in, and this isn't simply weighted by his first, last place season, as we are last and second last respectively (detroit is only slightly worse at generating scoring chances, less than one scoring chance for per game worse than us) THIS season. His forwards are literally incapable of playing modern offensive hockey, and this is even while Eichel and Reinhart are well above average, to elite, in doing so. That's how far back Jason's forwards set usand that's why he needs to go
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39 minutes ago, Randall Flagg said:
I think part of what makes our defense look bad is that our offense is bottom of the barrel in terms of what they're capable of doing in the offensive zone. So in a game, we see our defense give up chances, looks, passing plays that we haven't seen ourselves in years, and think it's a function of our awful defense. In reality, we may even do better about limiting these chances than the average NHL team, we just never see our offense capable of doing this to other teams.
The issue really is our offense (and backup goaltending). The talent of Jack and Olofsson and Sam and Skinner (until the last few months) has kept the raw goals scored out of the basement but we are the worst chance creation team since Botterill got here, measured by either of expected goals for or scoring chances for.So Flagg, what's causing this?
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3 minutes ago, inkman said:
He's getting more playing time than a guy with a footlong at a swingers party
I was going to say 'confirmation bias', but your's is funnier
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@Taro T number 3. We cover the usual topics: Botterill, O'Reilly, fracking.
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So what was the plan, save money for the week? Have him ready in Rochester if someone got hurt? Or is Botterill just trolling @LGR4GM at this point?
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On 1/23/2020 at 5:03 PM, Curt said:
Jokiharju:
HR Shorthanded GA/60: 10.8
HR Shorthanded GF/60: 2.2Your # (on ice goals/60): 14.25
Sorry for the delay getting back, houseguest often mean painting rooms.
How I get the numbers explains why they aren't very accurate. NHL puts out what they call the HTML report, which lists all the events of a game. An example is http://www.nhl.com/scores/htmlreports/20192020/PL020752.HTM
If you look at that report, at event 5, at 11 seconds, 9,23,13,55,62,35 were on the ice for the past 11 seconds, so I add 11 seconds to each player's time on ice. It isn't an accurate method of keeping track of time, so in the end, I have Bogo's short handed time on ice as 50.97 minutes, whereas NHL.com is measuring Bogo's TOI more accurately (presumably), has Bogo having 41.5 minutes, therefore our GA/60 are different, I'm at 4.71. NHL.com is at 5.79, Hockey reference is at 7.1.
It would be great if I had more accurate stats, but using the method I do allows me to see each player's stats more granularly.
Going to Joki, after Nashville, I have him at 13.72, while NHL.com is at 10.87 and Hockey reference is at 10.8.
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11 minutes ago, Curt said:
Jokiharju:
HR Shorthanded GA/60: 10.8
HR Shorthanded GF/60: 2.2Your # (on ice goals/60): 14.25
Cool, thanks, I'll look into it
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4 minutes ago, PASabreFan said:
I'll take a big breath and hold it and run into the room where the kids tap on their gizmos... are there fancy stats for groupings of penalty killers? I'd be more interested in how these two D and those two F function together. Probably scoring chances allowed, not goals.
And breathe.
You're taking notes when you watch, no?
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Don't know, maybe my software is wrong.
If you tell me an example, I'll try to track it down
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On ice goals/60, followed by the number of goals on ice for. I haven't uploaded the Nashville game yet
26 DAHLIN 22.64 1
68 OLOFSSON 20.51 2
10 JOKIHARJU 14.25 10
58 GILMOUR 14.17 1
6 SCANDELLA 11.77 12
13 VESEY 11.19 10
90 JOHANSSON 10.60 3
9 EICHEL 9.82 2
40 HUTTON 9.75 14
71 RODRIGUES 9.70 3
74 ASPLUND 9.15 7
33 MILLER 9.11 1
28 GIRGENSONS 8.33 20
55 RISTOLAINEN 8.1421
35 ULLMARK 7.35 21
17 SOBOTKA 7.25 3
22 LARSSON 6.73 15
19 MCCABE6.65 17
62 MONTOUR 6.21 3
24 PILUT 5.45 1
4 BOGOSIAN 4.92 4
67 SMITH/FROLIK 4.20 1
27 LAZAR 3.37 2
37 MITTELSTADT 0.00 0
21 OKPOSO 0.00 0
43 SHEARY 0.00 0
53 SKINNER 0.00 0
20 WILSON 0.00 0
23 REINHART 0.00 0
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Joki has terrible numbers on the PK this year. Kreuger tried that. Dahlin isn't ready, you don't hurry children that age.
Liger, it's a terrible reason that they don't have anyone else. It's what incompetent GM's do.
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The appropriate question isn't whether Bogo is the 8th best defenseman (which of course he is), the question Kreuger has to ask himself is he among the 4th best penalty killers (which he is). What you'all are reacting to is Botterill's crazy structuring of the team. Look at the last year and a half, the defensive players brought in: Dahlen, Montour, Joki, Gilmore, Miller, and Pilut. How many of those guys should play on your PK? Zero. Since Risto plays 1 of the 2 PP slots and 1 of the 4 PK slots, you're good with one of Montour, Joki,
Gilmor, Miller, and Pilut not needing to play a special team. During this time, out went a reasonable PK player in Scandella.Now I think Dahlen and Joki will get there in a few years, and Montour has pretty good numbers despite the ugly PK goal in Nashville this week and certainly known as an offensive player, and Miller has some really good stats, despite neither Kreuger (Miller is the Sabres' most protected player at even strength) nor Vegas willing to play him on the PK last year.
So if Botterill has brought in even a couple replacement level PK players, I can see the hate in this thread, sure, replace Bogo with them. But, for me, Bogo and Pilut play different positions, and you can't replace one with the other. You would think structuring a team this way would lead to a terrible PK, which is where the Sabres are.
Kreuger is trying to deal with his incompetent GM by playing 11-7, which gives Eichel too many minutes, leading to games like Nashville where they ran out of gas.
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2 minutes ago, SwampD said:
How many were OT. That's even strength.
Yeah, that would account for some, Eichel's 6th was with Mittelstadt and Risto. Miller's 1st was with Eichel and Johansson. Eichel lost a plus minus (if they are counted this way) when he, Olofsson, and Risto gave up a goal.
2019-2020 Lineup
in The Aud Club
Posted
I have GA/60 while shorthanded, before Colorado last night, I haven't uploaded yet.
A few notes. Johansson is the 'Don't Know' because players need to get a penalty (or shot, or hit, etc) before the system picks up their name. Smith and Frolik are together, because the player is only described by the number, and Curt has complained that since I'm adding 10 seconds, plus 5 seconds, plus 8 seconds (how the data is exported), that the time on ice isn't accurate, he's not totally wrong.
Number-Name-GA/60-On ice goals
68 OLOFSSON 30.77 3
26 DAHLIN 19.25 1
58 GILMOUR 14.17 1
10 JOKIHARJU 13.54 13
6 SCANDELLA 11.77 12
13 VESEY 10.81 10
9 EICHEL 10.76 3
33 MILLER 10.68 2
90 JOHANSSON 10.58 3
71 RODRIGUES 10.13 4
74 ASPLUND 9.157
40 HUTTON 8.77 17
28 GIRGENSONS 8.67 23
55 RISTOLAINEN 8.47 25
35 ULLMARK 8.34 25
62 MONTOUR 8.27 7
22 LARSSON 7.85 19
17 SOBOTKA 7.25 3
19 MCCABE 6.80 20
24 PILUT 6.53 2
34 dont know 6.01 1
27 LAZAR 5.45 6
4 BOGOSIAN 4.71 4
67 SMITH/FROLIK 4.57 3
37 MITTELSTADT 0.00 0
20 WILSON 0.00 0
43 SHEARY 0.00 0
53 SKINNER 0.00 0
23 REINHART 0.00 0
21 OKPOSO 0.00 0