ska-T Palmtown

Does anyone currently tearing it up in the NHL have an overrated younger brother we can draft??

PA - I absolutely should have removed that line ... I actually just copy/pasted the whole thing out of the game day thread. Over there it seemed like a generic tongue in cheek playful swat at SS (hell, myself included). I can guarantee it was not directed at you, nor anyone else specifically!

sorry the end of the graph gets all funky - I had to add some numbers to do the project math without using different game totals because I am lazy. Also, since the Sabres are on a TWO GAME WINNING STREAK (!!!) I did not want to cut the graph off at 46 games for the flightless birds.

Moving this from the gameday thread to here. Here is a graph of 8 teams in the East WC picture: The Sabres have been last or tied for last in this group (no BJ's, no Otters) since game 20. Since the Blue&Gold are trending up, I decided to just map every team's progress since game 26 - it looks good for Buffalo until you realize TB and PIT are on fire since then ... Buffalo would go from tied for last to ... drumroll ... 3rd - one spot out of the playoffs. However, at the current paces TB and PIT would run away with the two WC. I am too lazy to go back and add PHI (which, dear peer reviewers, I acknowledge they were a mistake to leave out) and another cuspy team to see where the trends took us. I had not planned to do the trend, but seeing as the Swords were trending up, I gave it a whirl. I took each team's point pace at 26 games and at 49 games (had to fudge numbers for PIT, NJD, and WAS), got a point% increase trend per game over that stretch, projected it out of the remaining 33 games (% total add), new projected point % and translated that into a projected point total. Interesting to see that the Aisles and Ovechkins have been playing like hot garbage for quite some time, while (Crosby, Malks, and Tang), The Pegula Shop Boys, and Ride the Lightnings lead the upward swing (in that order). No idea why that turned into a music reference bit at the end. Anyway - I am sure there are dozens of actual statistical reasons and hundreds of practical reasons why my Excel Fun is not very accurate, but it paints a strange picture compared to the Ol' Doom and Gloom squad around here. Cheers!

Moved my projection comment over to PA's new thread...

I am not sure the tweet's Jost speculation is reasonable in any way...

I don't disagree with the pure - pull a card from the deck methodology used above. Those are good hard numbers. The interesting bits to me are the 'soft' numbers. Since the 1990-1991 season (32 champs because none in 2005) - only 16 teams have won the cup. The 'hard' numbers have to assume "all things being equal" because there is no way to account for all the variations each year. I will see if I have enough time and bourbon this weekend to put together a spreadsheet of how many playoff appearances each franchise has since 1990-1991. I won't be truly meaningful, but I suspect that 1/3 of the teams will account for half or more of the slots. I am not sure how a long-term adjustment factor could be developed - or even a short term one to account for things like you could tell the Sharks did not really have a realistic 50% chance at making the playoffs this year. One would guess, however, that a team would "average out" over a 14 year period to be closer to 50% each year than not. <shruggy thing here>

It is really quite odd. If the Sabres are indeed playing a system where the folks who are not on the puck are supposed to be in specific areas (and from what I have seen - most very successful D-Zone teams employ this strategy in some form) - then they are just not good at it. I feel like I have seen beer league teams (definitely not mine, but that is for another thread) implement it better. Most D-zone strategies involved out-numbering the other team at the puck and then playing 'zone' behind that to prevent the cross-ice killer. Regardless of what system they employ - having ANY system implies every player has a role. If a player decides to play hero, then at least one other player has to now decide whether to cover for The Hero or to do their own job - a complete lose/lose situation. Even worse is if there are two players who recognize The Hero has gone rogue and both decide to try and cover and now you have two roles neglected. It must be "ok" within the system for The Hero ... otherwise every single video session would be some coach circling Cozzy off in his own world in like fifteen squiggly red circles and saying "Cozzy! WTF was going on here??" And if that is happening (and has been happening) and he keeps doing it ... then he is hopeless.

But, but, but ... Taylor Hall chose us! Right? RIGHT??!!

There were times during the Kings game when I swear Tage was going twice as fast as anyone else on the ice ... just like last year. Maybe his dad pulled him aside after the Ducks game and said "thanks for playing like crap, but seriously you are so much better than this, just go do hockey"

Why you gotta hit me right in the feels, man? But yeah - great point and I guess I would not be shocked if it were true.

I know Duds already replied - but the bold/underlined part is an actual defensive system that is taught at many levels of hockey. The 1a to the breakdown on that particular goal is the time/space Bryson allowed the Kings player (as dudacek pointed out) with the 1b being the far-side winger probably not paying enough attention to the open ice to better take away that option by blocking the passing lane. Either way, these are the types of great discussions that keep me coming back to SS even in these bleak times. I definitely appreciate all the effort to analyze the plays!

Yes, having a fully stocked cupboard but nothing on the table is not a good way to do things. I genuinely wonder what other teams thought last summer of the miscellaneous packages of Oreos, Thin Mints, and Little Debbie snacks we had amassed. Obviously fans tend to over-value their own players and each GM probably thinks theirs are somehow a little more likely to do well than other might. That said, I think quite a few of the talking heads thought we had good prospects. I also mention it because if GMKA does not have a plan other than "how many potentially electric prospects can I hoard?" ... we are truly effed!

I've mused on it before - has GMKA's plan (right or wrong - I am not endorsing anything, just speculating on what it might be) been to actually establish a position of strength? What was it, like 3 yrs ago at rookie/development people were all hard over some agitator guy as "the best prospect" and I am not even sure that dude is still playing hockey ... point is, the cupboard was bare AF not that long ago, it is not like KA has been stashing away prospects for years and years. BTW, not directed at you Marvin, just a good post to which I could reply to further my personal agenda 🙂

If everyone would just ignore those two clown shoes mf'ers, they would get bored and leave ... but NOOOO - everyone keeps thinking they can out troll the trolls.

i was thinking more along the lines of self harm, but I like your answer better.

Why can't I make myself stop watching? 😞

WTF did I just watch?

These announcers ... ugh. And the "fancy" graphics ESPN keeps throwing up are so distracting. Their board overlays seem off - or maybe just cuz the Sabres are in white? Also, dang kids should get off my lawn!

I am usually super confused when I read a post from JohninMinn b/c my feeble brain thinks JohnC and those two are pretty close to polar opposites. I agree that questioning the heart of a person you have never met, let alone interacted with in sustained and meaningful ways is pretty silly. It is obviously everyone's "internet warrior" right to do so ... but not all rights need to be used at all times.

Tomorrow Me is going to really resent Tonight Me after I somehow stay up and watch this ... I am central time, so it probably ends today for me.

As a former D3 student-athlete myself, you are GD right I would have lost my shizz if I found out the only reason I went 1-8 in my 'career' against that one dude in my conference at my weight class was because he was a dirty doping cheater! If it was because genetically I was gifted with only the faintest hint of athletic ability, so be it and thanks Mom and Dad.

I look at it from another perspective. I am generalizing here, but don't most PED's have known or suspected heath-issue side effects? "But they are choosing to do it" is kinda total BS ... if a few "bad actors" choose to violate rules - or worse they are allowed to do it by the sport, then others are forced to make the choice between their long-term health and the sport they love and are naturally good at. A sports governing body, by allowing athletes to take PEDs is essentially forcing others to do it in order to remain competitive, thus removing the actual choice for all practical purposes. I am aware that this is a gross over-simplification of the issue but I have neither the time, nor the actual intellectual capacity to write a full PhD dissertation on the matter. I am pretty confident some internet research (ie - first page of google results) would lend credence to my assertions.

I did think of that after I hit submit ... it is hard to explain, but I just sorta lost interest in baseball in the early 2000's. Can't honestly say why. So, while I was happy for the team, I did not partake in any reveling on their behalf.

I guess I do (I think?)? Somehow, all the years of losing from my favorite teams; the Bills and Sabres need to introduction, but thanks to TBS being the only reliable source of baseball (other than the gross Cubs on WGN) on TV in western NY when I grew up ... I am also a Braves fan. Sure, they won a WS in the 90's - but lost a whole bunch of them too ... I digress - somehow, after all of that, each goal is the start of the comeback, each win is the start of The Streak. I get angry and frustrated when they lose and especially when there appears to be a lack of effort, but in the end I am a fool and a sucker for Buffalo Sports ... to quote Adrian Monk "It's a blessing and a curse ... but mostly a curse."