nfreeman

I agree that RK leans towards vets, but given his effusive and consistent praise of Cozens, I think he is pretty close to a lock to be in the opening night lineup.

OK -- I misinterpreted your "top 9" statement. Even so, in light of your clarification, I'd say there are 9 forwards less likely to be scratched for opening night -- the 5 you mentioned as sure things, plus the 3 you mentioned as in his cohort, plus Cozens. I also think it's pretty likely that Reider and TT are in the lineup on opening night, and that as the season progresses, the guys who will be fighting it out for the last couple of spots will be KO, Reider, TT, Lazar, Mitts and perhaps R2.

I agree with most of this, but there is no question that the Bills dumped guys like Dareus and Watkins because they wanted to change the locker room — and they’ve been proven right. You’re a kind man, but this is nuts.

Now this I can understand.

This seems kinda harsh. Nelson hasn't been a particularly good player for the Sabres, but he's still a human being and to my knowledge hasn't done anything to justify a "good riddance."

@GASabresIUFAN -- it looks like you only have 20 on your roster, and I think the roster limit is 23 plus the taxi squad. I think Reider is a lock to be on the roster and will probably dress most nights. He would need to clear waivers to go back and forth from the taxi squad, and they want him to kill penalties. Irwin is also likely to be on the roster. I also think that they will keep the maximum number of guys at least until the AHL and CHL seasons start, and that the guys they keep will include R2 and Mitts until the AHL season starts, and Quinn until they burn up his 9 games (or until the CHL season starts if it doesn't burn a year of his contract). I agree that Toker will be on the taxi squad. I think Borgen will be on it at least until the AHL season starts. So, the taxi squad to start the season could include: Toker, Borgen, R2, Mitts and Quinn. If they don't bother to keep Mitts on the roster or the taxi squad, and just have him wait until the AHL season starts -- that will be an ominous sign.

I don’t think this is correct — ie I think it’s possible for #s 7 and 8 to do so poorly that the Sabres could split with everyone and finish in 6th. But I’d be interested in seeing the calculations if anyone is so inclined.

If Crosby stays healthy I think Pittsburgh will make the playoffs.

So I just tried to stream the WJC games and it looks like even though I get the NHL Network on my cable package, if I'm not at home and I want to stream the WJC, I need to sign up to Fubo. JFC.

@JohnC -- your optimism as always is commendable. I share much of it, but I think it's undeniable that goaltending needs to be substantially better than it was last year for the Sabres to have a chance in what @GASabresIUFAN's breakdown makes clear is a killer division. However I do think it's reasonably possible that Ullmark improves enough to get the job done and/or that @tom webster's nuggets about a trade for a goalie prove out, and I am certainly psyched to see Taylor Freaking Hall, healthy and in a contract year, on the wing of Eichel in his prime, plus Cozens and the other new forwards, plus Dahlin with another year of growth and the rest of the D in their 2nd year under RK. It could happen.

This is an interesting point. I think though GMs generally think a move like an offer sheet is more likely to shorten their careers than to lengthen them.

So last year, Pitt, which would've been in 4th place in our division, finished 11 games over DeLuca .500, and the Sabres finished 9 under -- so that means an improvement of TWENTY wins in an 82-game season would've been required to make the playoffs. Holy mackerel that is a steep hill to climb.

Serious question: who will have a better NHL career: Mitts or Ruotsalainen?

I think this is exactly right and would just add that this protection is part of what MSG is paying the Sabres for.

Both of these are accurate, especially the WFH point. Many of those who fled NYC in the spring have returned, mostly due to schools being (somewhat) back in session. But many have stayed gone, at least for a substantial percentage of each week.

No. 0.8 is 60% higher than 0.5. (Conversely, 0.5 is 37.5% lower than 0.8.) I'm using continental because isolated/island locales like AK and HI seem like they are qualitatively different from the continental states. But I don't think that is a big deal either way. As for the NYS/NYC numbers -- do the NY numbers in that link exclude NYC? I didn't see that noted on that web page, but it's possible. As for whether NY is cooking the books -- everyone is of course free to trust, or distrust, whomever they choose. I think you and Aud are kidding yourselves if you think that NYS, which has suffered under a highly corrupt state government for decades (regardless of which party has been in power) is more honorable than any other state in this regard, but YMMV.

Huh? I'm referring to the data that I linked to regarding current (i.e. last 7 days) Covid death rates. That data shows that NY is currently doing much worse than Florida, i.e. 60% higher deaths per capita. Aud and LGR questioned the reliability of the Florida data, which is reasonable enough, and my point is that the NYS data should be viewed with similar skepticism.

I'm certainly on board with viewing the data with a gimlet eye, but that should apply to NYS' data as well. I'd also point out that if you discard the data, I'm not sure what is left to support any kind of conclusion about one state's approach vs others'.

I certainly agree that the issues are complicated. My point was simply that certain propositions seem to have become articles of faith in this discussion, including that NYS is some kind of superior place filled with smart people who comply with COVID protocols, unlike the dumb rednecks in other parts of the country, and as a result our COVID results are better — when the data doesn’t remotely support that conclusion. Did you see his jab at me? In any case you are right that these jabs, including mine, don’t improve the quality of conversation. One interesting item about the data I linked to is that NYC is doing better currently than the rest of NYS.

Since we could all grow old waiting for @SwampD to introduce any data in support of his hunches, here's some: https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#cases_deathsper100klast7days It's only the last 7 days, which isn't as meaningful as last 30 days, but I wasn't able to find last 30 days on a quick search. NY has 60% more covid deaths per capita in the last 7 days than Florida, which has the 7th-fewest out of the continental 48 states.

Got any data to support this?

It’s worth noting that Florida has more people than NY, and more old people, and much less “better COVID practices” — and NY has 75% more COVID deaths than Florida.

Please do not post links to illegal streams. Thanks.

Here's something I hadn't realized: each team will play only the teams in its division. The Sabres' season will consist of 8 games against each of Boston New Jersey New York Islanders New York Rangers Philadelphia Pittsburgh Washington

BTW: Diggs IMHO is unquestionably already in the top tier of all-time Bills WRs with Reed, Moulds and Jerry Butler.