tom webster

The first paragraph pretty much is where I’m at. I’ve seen some garbage math out there. People who have never taken a probability course or know how to spell calculus acting like some executive actuary. There is some great information out there but there are also a lot of people preaching things they have no idea about. A couple of people whom I consider friends, who years ago would cringe at a conversation that involved numbers, now spewing stats and arguing with me about what margin for error is statistically significant. On the other hand, I come to this board to see what certain posters can tell me that my long too dormant brain cells can’t be bothered to decipher.

A program that deserves better. If they had any sort of press coverage he’d be getting skewered. Mark Alnutt is the “Peter Principle” personified.

Exactly. This smacks of desperation by an AD clearly over his head. He hires a search firm and then doubles back after he loses his big recruiter and all of his recruits. Awful. If they had any press coverage he would be getting dragged through burning coal embers for this.

The ever shifting criteria. That’s why I won’t waste the time. I thought of three guys off the top of my head. The league is changing. The AHL is going to be less relevant then it already is. Im done with this. I’ve already acknowledged it can’t be determined what impacts a player’s development.

Or how about Johnny Goidreau? Alec Debrindicat?

So you want me to find 25 guys who had little to no AHL experience and were not top ten guys who have become top scorers? Like Brayden Point?

For the record, someone else implied that I wasn’t “an old guy.”

Actually, a couple of things, 1) I’m 59 2) I’ve gotten where I am today by surrounding myself with people smarter then myself 3) some of the greatest achievements in my career where the results of thinking outside the box, questions the status quo. 4) I’m smart enough to know I may not be right. There is absolutely no way of knowing. The numbers show less then 50 players a year with AHL experience develop into top 6 forwards or top 4 defenseman. 5) I’m glad you insist on bringing me into the conversation. 6) Thanks Freeman for pointing out the obvious.

Big guys like TT need time to grow into their bodies. See Adam Creighton. He may never be good enough to justify the return for ROR but he can definitely be a useful 6 to 8 spot forward. One other thing, Luke Adam’s numbers were skewed by his first 3 or 4 games.

So a team that can’t score will give up Skinner, Kane and a couple if draft picks for a number one pick in the high twenties! Anybody still wondering why they suck? i just can’t believe they will let him go.

Obviously there has to be some place for them to play before they turn 20. I never players need no development. I am saying they need little to no AHL experience. Do you even know how many of the top 15 scorers for all the playoff teams have played more then 50 games in the AHL?

Re: top 100 scorers in the past decade.... Only if you take out all top 10 draft picks since most top 10 draft picks are talented enough to go top 10, and therefore see little if any junior or AHL time. As you know, that really wouldn’t make your point of players not needing the AHL and it not being a developmental league, if you selected someone like Crosby or Malkin and said “SEE ZOMG! They didn’t need AHL TIME!” ??? You so conveniently ignored.... And the topic of Development in the AHL.... The burden of proof is on you bro. You want to make ignorant comments about how the AHL and or pro leagues over in europe are not a developmental league for the NHL and most players don't need it. YOU provide the proof. Because both leagues are tremendous at rounding out a players game. And i'll say it again, i'm not talking about the top draft picks that don't need AHL time. But of course you know this .... I'll be waiting. And waiting. And waiting..... Find one post where I mention anything other then the AHL. There is absolutely no proof that playing in the AHL benefitted him. Its a math thing to me. There’s what, 700 players in the AHL? You tell me how many are actually prospects. Out of those prospects, maybe 100, what, maybe 20 will be difference makers. Why hasn’t the AHL helped Bailey, Fasching or Baptiste but appears to have helped VO? Maybe, just maybe , VO was better to begin with. i know it’s hard to think outside the box. That we’ve been conditioned to think this way is the only way. All I’m asking is how do we know? As the league continues to get younger, I believe less players will spend time in the AHL. It’s a large reason why the AHL business model has changed.

When you invite someone into your home, you proceed to lay into them. It’s just common decency.

When you get a chance can you forward me that study where VO played the whole season with the Sabre’s and didn’t develop as good or better? It would be fascinating reading. How did you find an exact same situation and control all the cause and effect? This is something of ground breaking research and you should capitalize on it.

Seriously, time to grow up? How did I miss this yesterday?

And next year, as Tage’s Body continues it’s growth from boy strength to man strength I’m sure we will hear all about it was his time in Rochester they made such a difference. There are a lot of reasons that the league is getting younger, part of it being that teams are starting to realize that the AHL isn’t as important as they thought. Maybe I’ll spend time seeing how much minor league time the NHL’s top 100 scorers put in.

They could have gotten the same experience up here. Would the Sabres have been any worse for it? One point I’ll give you is that they may have had better coaching in Rochester. Trust me, I know it’s not a popular opinion. And I do think a very small minority of players benefit from playing in the AHL. I just think it’s overvrated and I cringe every time someone talks like it’s an absolute truth.

About what I’d expect.

Ok, I’ll concede that people were talking about Housley. Who else interviewed him? The major point, however, is why did JBOT choose him? Even a cursory interview would have revealed he has no grasp of the information available to him. The sport is on the verge of technological epiphany and there is no evidence that he even knows whose playing well during a period. The ROR thing is debatable but the bottom line is the return leaves a lot to be desired. In his case, I have to believe a better coach handles that situation better. As for the AHL, it’s all anecdotal evidence. There is no real way of knowing why someone gets better over time. Maybe they were that hood all along and just needed a chance. Maybe they just matured. Maybe there were reasons that Girgerenko cane with all those red flags and he was destined for failure no matter how he was handled. finally, I believe history will look back on GMTM much better.

A) wow, Housley got mentioned in an article in Florida. Find me one mention of him getting another interview or an explanation as to how JBOT waited and still got him from all the teams that wanted him. On top of that, the writer was so in tune with the organization, he didn’t mention the guy who got the job, hired while Housley was still available I might add. B) it’s essentially ROR and Guhle for Montador and Thompson. Only reason there is any benefit in cap space is because he lucked out with Berglund leaving. C) you know what else happens to players like Campbell , Roy and others? They got older. And you have no idea if Vic and Alex are any better for being down there. Old school guys would like you to believe that. They’d also like you to believe that fighting and plus/minus are important. D) So far JBOT hasn’t improved the team at all other then tanking and allowing them to get Dahlin which may go down as his greatest achievement. I believe we are in the playoffs if GMTM is still here but probably no Dahlin do maybe it’s all worth it

1) Housley was not a hot commodity. 2) You have to get a better return 3) I’m not a big believer in the AHL development plan. There is no scientific method to prove that guys get better because they played in the AHL or just because they got older, stronger and more mature. For every guy that got better playing in the minors, there are hundreds that just stay as they are, not good enough. 4) JBOT has a lot to prove but so far this team has been considerably worse then they were the prior two years.

I believe JBOT has made three egregious errors in judgement; 1) Hiring Housley 2) The ROR trade 3) Doing nothing as the team free falled(sorry) Thst being said, I’ve softened my stance on firing him dependent on how he handles the coaching situation.

Remember, 3 if the 4 guys you referenced in first paragraph were GMTM picks.

Well hopefully all the already committed recruits as well as the returnees stick around so we can have some idea. Unfortunately, I fear a mass exodus as well as a few de-commits

I believe Danny White hired both Hurley and Oates. Allen Greene was his deputy but he left and was replaced by Alnutt.