darksabre

The problem with trying to replace Risto in that #4 role is you're probably looking at someone like Alex Edler as a UFA, who you could lose to the expansion draft in 2021 because you'd probably have to leave him unprotected just like you would have with Risto. I guess you could trade Risto now just to get something for him, get Edler for about the same amount of money, and not feel bad about it if Seattle takes him later?

I don't know, people wanted to see Kane in the playoffs and he was a wet fart.

His offensive production is certainly consistent, but the problem is whether or not it matters if he's giving up so much defensively. He actually had his best seasons under Bylsma's system that made his Corsi numbers worse because it allowed a higher volume of low risk shots. Risto appears to be more productive when you ask him to dilute the quality of opportunities against rather than when you ask him to reduce the number of opportunities against.

I guess the way I look at it is this: If we assume that most of Risto's ice time is coming against his toughest opposition and starting in the defensive zone, then his Corsi numbers indicate that he's not very good at that deployment. The highest average TOI he ever had in a season was during the year where his usage was flipped to have more o zone deployments than d zone deployments. As a result his mediocre CF% did improve. Why? Because a larger percentage of his overall icetime was coming against easier opponents in more favorable deployments. He was still drawing the tough work, but he was able, for that one season, to masque it with some productive easier work. Basically, all signs point to Risto in the role of top line defender being a bad usage for him if you want him to be productive. He needs more favorable ice time against weaker competition.

Not necessarily. There's probably strength of competition to think about with Pilut. He was probably not playing against opposition that is as tough as Risto despite similar zone deployment. So it makes sense for him to have better Corsi numbers than Risto despite the eye test suggesting he was probably not as good in the D zone. He made up for it on offense, which is something that Risto doesn't/can't do.

I think what Risto is good at is debatable. All I know is the stats don't refute my eye test opinion.

Risto has been the exact same player under 3 different coaches. I don't see him changing under Kreuger.

Honestly, his o-zone decision making frustrates me more than his d-zone weaknesses.

My general feeling is that if Botterill does trade Risto this summer, it will be: 1. For a return that fans will not be happy with 2. Because he thinks the team is better off without him than with him If he plays hardball with Risto and doesn't trade him, it will be: 1. Because he thinks the team is better off with him than without him 2. Because Kreuger might be able to get more out of him on the ice and/or increase his trade value for next off-season It all comes down to whether or not Botterill thinks Risto is a positive contributor. Other teams have to know this and know that they can low-ball Botterill all day long on Risto. I would be surprised if he nets a big return.

Right. So who the hell knows. There's a lot that Corsi doesn't tell us, which is why I'm very on the fence about the whole thing.

I think the canary in the coal mine for me is that changing his zone deployment didn't result in significantly better corsi numbers for him. Most players, when you give them favorable starts like that, tend to reward you with better corsi numbers. Not so for Risto.

I guess for me it's a chicken/egg argument. Are the Sabres bad because Risto is bad, or is Risto bad because the Sabres are bad? Evidence seems to suggest that Risto is a contributor to the problem, not a victim.

If you want to get weird, Lawrence Pilut in 33 games with similar zone start % to Risto and Chara, but with less TOI, had Chara-esque Corsi numbers. I'm trying to think of a player that gets as much ice time as Risto but has such bad Corsi numbers. I really don't know.

Risto is a tough player to judge. If you look at someone who has comparable usage (TOI, zone start %), Zdeno Chara, you see that Chara has *significantly* better corsi numbers. Like, they aren't even *close*. Now, certainly, the Bruins have been a better team for a long time, but still. I don't think that is enough to account for how bad Risto's numbers are. Risto has always been in the negative, even during the 17-18 season where Housley flipped his usage in favor of more O zone starts than D zone starts (the only time in his career that this has been the case). I don't think Risto is bad. But I'm not convinced he's good either. Because in his career the more D zone starts he gets, the more opportunities the Sabres give up. It's almost a direct correlation.

I don't think he actually does those things very well. I see him being clumsy, especially when it comes to handling the puck in tight spaces. He's shockingly bad at handling aggressive forecheckers. He also tends to wander/chase which confuses his teammates and screws up zone exits. Not to mention that he's slow in pursuit, so he struggles to catch the players he's chasing. Every time an opponent gains the zone (which they will, because he doesn't defend the blue line very well), he basically has one chance to make a play to get the puck and clear the zone. If he fails at that chance, then expect to be spending a bunch of time in your own end. I'm convinced the reason his ice time is so high is because once you get him on the ice it's hard to get him off. I'd love some stats about how much of Risto's ice time is spent in which zones, because I suspect he spends a lot more time in his own end than anywhere else.

This was from an old thread on here:

All I can tell you is that the stories are not made up. Obviously you don't have to believe me.

Good call. That might make trading him more difficult unless someone really wants him.

Ah. Then that makes things more interesting. Because in 2021 you have to protect Dahlin and Montour. The question then is, do you want Risto to be your third protected defender? If not, then you have to trade him by next summer.

Isn't Dahlin automatically protected because next summer he'll only have played 2 years pro?

To me, the biggest argument in favor of keeping Risto is that the Sabres have FOUR UFA defensemen on the roster for this coming season: Bogo, Scandella, Hunwick, and Nelson. If the Sabres let all of those guys walk it frees up 12.2 million in cap space and as many as four defensive roster spots. Our defense next July could be Dahlin, Risto, Montour, and McCabe. Without Risto the cap space ends up being 17.6 million. I think that's where the argument for moving him comes in. But I might be inclined to wait until next summer to do it.

You gotta commit at some point and see where things go.

That little extra move by Pastrnak to get Binnington all the way down and out was dirty.

I don't think it's that complicated. We want players traded because a. what other solution is there to the team being bad? and b. impatience. No fan wants to admit that a valid part of the solution to their team's problems is time.

Oh man, St. Louis is screwed now.