carpandean

My ideal scenario was to have them win this one for the home fans and then to have it ended in one of the next three opportunities (2 Coyotes games and our Blue Jackets game.) So, yeah, I'm ... um ... OK ... :sick: This has to be a time where GMTM says to Nolan, "I know that you like to reward the hot goaltender with the next start, but you have to start a backup on Friday if Arizona doesn't win one before then."

I think that he's saying that when the same team has been the worst team two years in a row, that team has never lost the first pick both years. There were three such cases, two drafted first once and the other drafted first both times. Of course, the odds are the odds, completely unaffected by previous results. Under the old system, there was a 73.2% chance that such a team would pick first at least once. Under the current system, there is only a 36% chance that they would. However, that's before the two lotteries have occurred. Now that the first one happened, if they Sabres hold on to 30th, there's just a 20% chance that they draft first in at least one (obviously, only one) of those successive years.

But a far worse chance than everyone else. :P Not possible. A team like Boston could slip out of the playoffs and move up to get McDavid (extremely small chance), but then Eichel would go to the 30th place team. Jack Eichel will play for either us or Arizona.

Well, there isn't any replacement, at all, because they pick one number and that's it. If they reveal teams down through #3 and nobody has moved, then the conditional probability of the 30th team winning, given that the first 17th-28th did not is, as you guessed, 0.2/0.35. Technically, though, the winning team has already been determined, so there is no longer any probability involved (no more random event, just an unknown constant.) As for the previous history of 30th place teams, two things have changed in recent years that make that information even less relevant: 1) the probability of the 30th team picking first has been reduced from 25% to 20% 2) the 4-spot limit was eliminated The chance of the 30th team picking first used to 48.2%, now it's 20%.

Yeah, that was the one that Nolan said after the Washington game that Hackett would probably start against Boston, but then after the Boston game, Lindback said that he knew the night before that he was starting again.

This. I'll be nervous as hell at the lottery if we end up 29th, but not so much if we end up 30th. There would definitely be some teams that I wouldn't want to see him go to, but based on the odds, I fairly certain that it will be someone else. I don't think the actual gap is that big. McDavid is whichever of those two you like more and Eichel is the other one. Sure, you'd prefer one, but either one would give you perma-grin for the foreseeable future.

Except that Nolan has been riding the hot goalie all season, even in back-to-backs. People have been saying that GMTM can't tell him to lose on purpose, which is true, but I've been saying for a while that he could at least have asked him to follow the normal custom, as you say.

In won't be cruel gods if we don't win the lottery, it will be the 4:1 odds (at best) against it. As others have stated, Eichel is the main prize; McDavid is the possible bonus. My excitement for clinching 30th would be far more than my excitement for winning the lottery if we do (likewise, if we finish 29th, the excitement for either Buffalo or Arizona winning the lottery would be far more than for knowing which one won it.) Both would be great, but the gap from #3 to #2 is much more than the gap from #2 to #1.

I truly hope for the fans and the team, that one of the four shots before then (or two half shots) ends it. Nobody wants to see that arena if it's still unsettled on Saturday. Carrion wasn't an obvious enough name for my dense self.

As long as all the bolded happens, they're still OK. Must be 3-0-0, 0-3-0 3-0-0, 0-2-1 or 2-0-1, 0-3-0 to not get it. Certainly still possible, though.

fixed

It's what we should have been seeing for a while. Don't know if GMTM finally reached his limit or if Nolan decided to be a team player (he's not going to coach to lose, but seeing what young prospects have to offer is very common in this team's position), but I'm glad that they did. Three games left, I could see one each for Lindback, Makarov and Hackett (unless Johnson comes back.)

Even with last year's odds, I wouldn't be thinking about the benefit of losses until the very end (if things were not to progress much from this year.) With the new odds, might as well cheer for wins to the end.

Yeah, the first "he's also 19" in this thread was in reference to Zadorov, not Larsson.

After a quick turn of events this weekend, there could be a long, slow road to the end: Off today One shot Monday (Hurricanes @ Sabres) One shot Tuesday ('Yotes @ Flames) Off Wednesday One shot Thursday ('Yotes @ Canucks) One shot Friday (Sabres @ Blue Jackets) and none of that pays off: One shot at 7:00pm Saturday (Pens @ Sabres) Final shot at 9:00pm Saturday (Ducks @ 'Yotes)

133 pages and this is the first time that I've realized what this thread is. I thought it was a fantasy hockey league.

Even more than that, Columbus is 12-1-0 in their last 13. Carolina is the Sabres' easiest opponent and Calgary is playing very well, so it is quite likely that this won't be done until next weekend. By the way, if you are really pessimistic and give the Sabres a 75% chance of winning each game and the Coyotes a 75% chance of losing each in regulation (and no chance of an OT/SO loss), then there is an 18.8% chance of getting McDavid, 69.3% chance of getting Eichel and 11.6% chance of drafting 3rd.

There will be rioting in the stands if they don't do it now. Still pushing for it to be locked up before the last night, so that the season finale can be extra boisterous and supportive.

Just put this in the GDT: They need one game out of six to go their way (or two half-ways in OT/SO losses.) Can clinch with 2-1-0, 1-0-2, 1-1-1, 0-0-3, 1-2-0, 0-1-2, 0-2-1 or 0-3-0. Need help if they go 3-0-0 (need 2 AZ points) or 2-0-1 (need 1 AZ point). Never count anything until it's locked, but tonight was definitely a big step. 3 out of 4 games went their way this weekend and they started it needing 4 out of 10.

It's 2. In your scenario, Arizona wins by 2 points, not 1. They need one game out of six to go their way (or two half-ways in OT/SO losses.) Can clinch with 2-1-0, 1-0-2, 1-1-1, 0-0-3, 0-1-2, 1-2-0, 0-2-1 or 0-3-0. Need help if they go 3-0-0 (need 2 AZ points) or 2-0-1 (need 1 AZ point).

And then there were two. Oilers officially eliminated from the shart race.

Columbus beat Penguins today, too. Hope they do the same to the Sabres and, if necessary, it puts the Pens in a desperate spot in their last game.

*Insert Hasek's wife joke here*

Maybe. I just feel like the Sabres will almost certainly win that one. Here's a fun thought: the Coyotes play the Ducks to close out the season. It is possible that the Ducks winning would clinch #1 (PT) for them and #30 for the Coyotes.

The only good news is that one of those two cellar teams (Columbus) is 11-1-0 in their last 12. However, it's hard to believe that the Sabres won't win against Carolina or get any points against the other three. If the Coyotes don't win at least one (or lose two in OT), I think we're in trouble.