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No, I don’t think so. I think these are reasonable and workable conclusions you draw by analyzing the players, because you have an apt and more importantly eager hockey mind. They aren’t looking at it in this way, not that deeply. jj wasn’t being moved until he asked to - it wasn’t a plan, they didn’t have a plan, here. They will count on Sammy because they counted on him years ago to the tune of a huge deal when he hadn’t even established as an NHLer yet. The dye was cast long long ago you know that! “Will Sammy be better cause JJ no longer…” yadda yadda - no. Im not saying that dismissively but factually (at least in terms of what I actually think is happening). They aren’t thinking that deep lol. They already loved Sammy. They’ll count on Sammy because Adams has tied his wagon to Sammy. He formulated that plan after JJ asked out? Or, he knew of it before hand but just wasn’t going to do anything about it? Doesn’t make sense. The calculation was that Adams liked Kesselring - we do know that from reputable in the knows. Once it became apparent JJ had to be his big (and only) trade chip, he used him to get Kesselring. Doan is simply bPA on someone’s list - and it’s not a list that was put together with team building consideration

What's odd is I do think Thorny is right about a lot. Peterka leaving is an issue until they prove otherwise. Yea, the question is execution. I still think goalie and coaching will be a massive issue.

The trade off is will Doan bury Tage rebounds, or feed him off the cycle the way JJ did not? Will Samuelsson be able to be more assertive closing his gap because he doesn’t have to worry about JJ’s man being uncovered? We all know we had to get better at prevention and that we’d likely have to sacrifice offence to do so. Its what they’ve obviously tried to do.

I feel like it’s indisputable goaltending metrics improve with better defensive play because they’ll take less good shots and let in less goals. And good goalie play would increase D metrics as they’d be on the ice for less against I’m not sure there’s evidence to suggest we’ve improved anywhere, but yes, assuming improvement in one facet I think it bleeds into others this is functional in the shell game argument I always make. Issues can manifest in more than one way. I don’t think it’s guarantee our offence produces to the rate it was if our team D is more effective. Without proper outside supplementation it’s tended to yo-yo year over year The issues of youth and inexperience and lack of overall talent tent to pop up in different places when one hole is plugged maybe whack a mole is a better analogy. But same principle

One thing Peterka is elite at is rush offence and his departure is going to be felt because his skill set fit perfectly with the strength of our team, the backline transition skill. The game Scenario I posted up thread illustrates it perfectly There’s no way it doesn’t blunt Dahlin and Power’s breakout passing giving those passes to Doan instead of Peterka. Similarly, there’s no way Tage doesn’t get fewer rush opportunities if it’s Doan feeding him. Bht that works both ways: Ian Cole isn’t going to hit JJ in flight like Byram would and Nick Schmaltz isn’t going to bury pucks like Tage.

Yikes. I mean just a sad and pathetic response. As to my predictions, I'll always aim high on those, I'll do it again this year. Gotta hope for better cuz it's all we got. I do appreciate you pulling this "gotcha" though. Really nails home it's about clout chasing not discussing the team in any meaningful way.

Unfortunately the die was cast when in his first summer as GM Kevyn didn't lock him up long term and only signed him to a bridge.

A) I’m as right as ever, frankly I’m more right than ever, can’t remember the last thing I missed, b) I think that’s what leads to the tone. Yokels like you disagreeing because you have a complex. You argue against Adams philosophies any time but unless it’s me on the other end. ive got your number have you been more right than wrong? Your predictions from last year are almost laughably bad, if that’s any indication 😬 Hey congrats on calling Tage tho

Very possible.

For the record, I understand you use “scoring” to just mean goals but it gets confusing and that’s why you get responses like that because in the nhl scoring refers to points https://www.quanthockey.com/nhl/seasons/nhl-players-stats.html It’s basically like saying Sidney Crosby was born in America what? He’s Canadian Ya that’s what I meant, he’s North American Goal scoring is goal scoring. The connotation for “scoring” in the nhl is points just like if you say “America” everyone knows what that means

The Sabres could be better next year than they were this past year, for many reasons. It’s not likely they will be better because they got rid of Peterka.

This is obnoxious. And this is flat out bull hockey. I've mentioned jjp and his 2nd assists multiple times. You have no counter argument other than points. It's surface level. You've really gone downhill as a poster the last couple years. Just always with this tone. And you don't need it, you could just make your point but it's always this "I'm right and you're too dumb" sort of response. I've been more right than wrong over the years though.

Metal is full of cartoons. The image I am using is an example, Lemmy Kilmister of Motorhead. He didn’t have Ozzy’s fame, but he probably out punched Ozzy for living the heavy metal lifestyle.

Yes and Quinn will have 80 points last year Or was that the year before? I always try to stick with your predictions as opposed to my demonstrably more accurate ones

Start with points, or continue being wrong it’s honestly your call lol No one is ignoring all of the other context - listing it out doesn’t beef up your argument it simply belabours a nothing point Assists were not *mentioned* until i did so

I mean, you are literally taking a larger conversation about production out of context and then turning into something it isn't. No one, and I mean NO ONE, believes you just say oh well we subtract 30JJP goals and add in 18 of these other goals and that's our total! because that would be stupid. It is contextualizing how much offensive production this roster lost overall compared to what he currently has. You don't need to get flippant about it because you think JJPs 41 assists are being ignored. What about Cozens atrocious defense? What about Clifton being off the roster and so far fewer giveaways? What about Doan being able to force Greenway down a line? What about Quinn being healthy? What about Norris being healthy or not? What about JJPs role in Buffalo playing with Tage Thompson versus his role in Utah? What about the goalies Buffalo faced and system they play. We know it is more complicated, but we started with goals and can move on to other things. @Thornydisagree with this all you want but 23 of his 41 assists are 2nd assists. His primary assist rate is the same as Zach Benson's. I think Peterka will get 25+ goals in Utah but I don't think he gets 41assists.

Agree and JJ does things like that on goals he doesn’t get the points for I just think all else being equal the guys with the higher point totals are the guys contributing most to offence when we traded Eichel you wouldn’t say “goals” would you? Well you probably would but it wouldn’t be very fair would it? You are sort of over complicating what I’m saying. I’m simply saying it makes more sense to look at points than goals. It’s not perfect but it’s closer

Yes this is the worst, we have 2 backups on any other team starting for us.

JJP and 2nd assists: 2022: 7 2023: 12 2024: 23 JJP and 1st assists: 2022: 13 2023: 10 2024: 18 And Kesselring 16 primary, 6 secondary assists Doan 8primary, 4 secondary assists and neither player was given the ice time all year or the linemates Peterka got.

It isn't more objective. You then start to ignore roles, toi, team structure. None of this is more objective. Also, I went into JJP assists. If you think Peterka is going to run at 1 secondary assist per 60mins again this year, fine but I will bet on that dropping without Tage or Tuch being on his line. Over half his assists are 2nd assists and those fluctuate. 41 assists! LOOK! yea but 23 of those were 2nd assists.

The context was Perreault’s post. The part you bolded is me disagreeing with his numbers on his terms. The part you considered extra was me framing the argument in my own terms, the terms I think are relevant And I’d apply that argument against your assist argument as well. For example. JJ Peterka’s assist would not exist without Byram forcing Marner to rush his shot so UPL could make a clean save directing the puck to Dahlin’s corner where he quickly flipped it to Tuch who happened to be exactly where he should be and fed it to Peterka streaking up the opposite boards who took the D wide and dropped it back to a space created by Byram rushing the net for Tage who beat Woll with a perfect wrister. Every player on the ice contributed, not just Peterka and Tuch with the assists.

83 points in, 124 points out - that’s your better starting point Your more objective starting point It’s not 33% more out, as simplifying to “goals” would suggest. I’d wager it’s far closer to the ~50% marker using all points would suggest

Why did Dylan Holloway jump from 6 goals and 9 points to 26 and 63 last year? Nothing in his resume suggested that was coming. Who expected Tage Thompson to suddenly erupt with 38 goals when he did? Five years ago thinking Gustav Forsling the best D on a cup winner? Yeah, right. Player performance can be as much about opportunity and circumstance as it is skill.

I know you made reference to “there’s more to it” but it’s an X for me because assist totals for me aren’t “more to it.” They are simply “it.” That’s raw offence. ”Goals scored that’s 34 in, 46 out. It’s not 20 or 30 the defence needs to make up, it’s 12. But it’s way more complicated than that. How will the moves affect the power play, the PK, line chemistry, line matchups, situational deployments, the forecheck, the backcheck, puck battles, rush offence, rush defence, exits and entries, the cycle game, getting to the net, blocking out, D zone structure, the room…?” This reads pretty firmly as “it’s 12 goals, for offence, and then other stuff” I just disagree. Assists deserve to be included with / attributed to raw offence. The “goals” we will need to replace. It’s not chemistry, or rush offence, or any of the stuff you mentioned it’s offence. The calculation doesn’t start at 34 in, 46 out. I don’t think it’s just an oversimplification - I think it’s an oversimplification to the extent of being functionally meaningless in terms of a discussion point

I’m not sure how this is much different from my post you disagreed with. Honing it down to simply goals scored by Peterka and stopped by Kesselring is dramatically oversimplifying how hockey works. .