Expected Goals For, a visual

[LGR4GM]

Posters use expected goals or xgf and many ask how it works. It takes historical sh% based on onblocked shots on net and averages that out. Then it adds up a teams total for the game. This actual had a visual for shot zones and some models get more precise than this because of NHL tracking which is very accurate now. They can also get really fancy and adjust for shot type, screens, pre shot puck movement. I thought the general visual would help though. 

 

[LGR4GM]

Micah has gotten to the point of even figuring out how goalies do what they do in regards to xgf. Lots of good info if you subscribe to his work. 

 

 

 

[LGR4GM]

 

 

[Wyldnwoody44]

This is cool for people that are into it. To me it feels like being back in pre-med engineering classes, and I don't ever want to go back there 😂 

 

I'm an old school eye test guy, for better or worse. 

[Doohickie]

21 hours ago, Wyldnwoody44 said:

This is cool for people that are into it. To me it feels like being back in pre-med engineering classes, and I don't ever want to go back there 😂 

I'm an old school eye test guy, for better or worse. 

Same.  There's a reason they're analytics guys.  I'm not one of those.

[French Collection]

On 5/26/2025 at 2:09 PM, Wyldnwoody44 said:

This is cool for people that are into it. To me it feels like being back in pre-med engineering classes, and I don't ever want to go back there 😂 

 

I'm an old school eye test guy, for better or worse. 

Ditto, I try and grasp that stuff and have the time to learn it but it just doesn’t capture me. I do like the Coles notes version explained to me and how it reinforces ideas.