rakish Posted January 6, 2018 Report Share Posted January 6, 2018 (edited) This time I sorted teams by how many top 20 players they have drafted in the past 5 years. I tried to get them to the right team, but I likely erred in some places. How do I read this? 3 PATRIK LAINE 1709 NHL Winnipeg Jets Patrik Laine is the 3rd highest rated forward for his draft, behind Matthews and Keller. This is only for the first half of the season, there's no prior stats factored in. The 1709 is his raw rating, roughly a 1000 is an NHL player, so Laine certainly clears that. The next two items are fairly self-explanatory. You will have complaints with Mittelstadt's ranking after his very nice WJC, but he hasn't scored much in college. Sabres that didn't make the top 20: 46 LINUS WEISSBACH 409 NCAA Univ. of Wisconsin52 CLIFF PU 375 OHL London Knights71 BRANDON HAGEL 271 WHL Red Deer Rebels92 BRETT MURRAY 151 NCAA Penn State Univ. 124 VASILI GLOTOV 38 QMJHL Shawinigan Cataractes 39 SAM REINHART 666 NHL Buffalo Sabres79 ERIC CORNEL 190 AHL Rochester Americans81 CHRISTOPHER BROWN 177 NCAA Boston College 24 VICTOR OLOFSSON 920 SHL Frölunda HC 23 C.J. SMITH 923 AHL Rochester Americans33 NICHOLAS BAPTISTE 632 AHL Rochester Americans55 GUSTAV POSSLER 366 SHL Djurgårdens IF93 SEAN MALONE 97 AHL Rochester Americans 44 BRYCEN MARTIN 158 ECHL Cincinnati Cyclones 36 WILLIAM BORGEN 344 NCAA St. Cloud State Univ.55 CASEY FITZGERALD 190 NCAA Boston College56 PHILIP NYBERG 176 NCAA Univ. of Connecticut62 DEVANTE STEPHENS 138 ECHL Cincinnati Cyclones 40 AUSTIN OSMANSKI 197 OHL Peterborough Petes43 VOJTECH BUDIK 160 WHL Prince Albert Raiders 42 OSKARI LAAKSONEN 119 Jr. A SM-liiga Ilves U20 It is fairly easy to get skipped, as you need to play 12 games in a league, which eliminated Justin Bailey. I think the AHL is graded too high, as is the ECHL. At the bottom is the rascatoons, my team from my draft contest. I'm one day hoping to play for the imaginary cup, once these guys age a bit. I think I can stop drafting defensemen for a couple years. Winnipeg3 PATRIK LAINE 1709 NHL Winnipeg Jets6 KRISTIAN VESALAINEN 1127 Liiga HPK6 JACK ROSLOVIC 2151 AHL Manitoba Moose7 SAMI NIKU 1366 AHL Manitoba Moose7 JOSH MORRISSEY 1032 NHL Winnipeg Jets8 NIKOLAJ EHLERS 1592 NHL Winnipeg Jets10 KYLE CONNOR 1470 NHL Winnipeg Jets12 BRENDAN LEMIEUX 1450 AHL Manitoba Moose16 LOGAN STANLEY 430 OHL Kitchener Rangers16 MASON APPLETON 1319 AHL Manitoba Moose19 ERIK FOLEY 942 NCAA Providence CollegeLos Angeles3 MICHAEL ANDERSON 929 NCAA Univ. of Minnesota-Duluth4 DOMINIK KUBALÍK 1954 NLA HC Ambrì-Piotta7 JACOB MIDDLETON 814 AHL San Jose Barracuda7 MICHAEL AMADIO 1674 AHL Ontario Reign7 KALE CLAGUE 743 WHL Brandon Wheat Kings9 COLE HULTS 670 NCAA Penn State Univ.10 DOMINIK KUBALÍK 1418 Czech HC Plzen15 ALEX LINTUNIEMI 638 AHL Ontario Reign19 ADRIAN KEMPE 1120 NHL Los Angeles KingsChicago4 JONI TUULOLA 995 Liiga Sport7 ALEXANDER DEBRINCAT 1231 NHL Chicago Blackhawks8 CARL DAHLSTRÖM 1023 AHL Rockford IceHogs10 HENRI JOKIHARJU 575 WHL Portland Winterhawks12 CHAD KRYS 569 NCAA Boston Univ.13 NICK SCHMALTZ 1445 NHL Chicago Blackhawks14 GUSTAV FORSLING 675 NHL Chicago Blackhawks15 LUCAS CARLSSON 782 SHL Brynäs IF15 IAN MITCHELL 384 NCAA Univ. of Denver17 JAKUB GALVAS 342 Czech HC Olomouc17 RYAN HARTMAN 1050 NHL Chicago BlackhawksArizona2 CLAYTON KELLER 2299 NHL Arizona Coyotes3 JAKOB CHYCHRUN 1552 NHL Arizona Coyotes3 KYLE WOOD 1092 AHL Tucson Roadrunners4 DYLAN STROME 2959 AHL Tucson Roadrunners108 DYLAN STROME 145 NHL Arizona Coyotes6 KYLE CAPOBIANCO 1381 AHL Tucson Roadrunners14 NICHOLAS MERKLEY 1331 AHL Tucson Roadrunners16 PIERRE-OLIVIER JOSEPH 369 QMJHL Charlottetown Islanders17 CHRISTIAN FISCHER 1066 NHL Arizona Coyotes18 MAX DOMI 1037 NHL Arizona CoyotesNew Jersey3 NICO HISCHIER 1431 NHL New Jersey Devils4 JESPER BRATT 1424 NHL New Jersey Devils4 WILL BUTCHER 1518 NHL New Jersey Devils5 STEVEN SANTINI 1277 NHL New Jersey Devils9 JOSH JACOBS 799 AHL Binghamton Devils13 REILLY WALSH 521 NCAA Harvard Univ.14 NATHAN BASTIAN 743 AHL Binghamton Devils16 MIRCO MÜLLER 648 NHL New Jersey Devils19 MILES WOOD 1024 NHL New Jersey DevilsColumbus1 ZACH WERENSKI 2096 NHL Columbus Blue Jackets2 SETH JONES 2293 NHL Columbus Blue Jackets10 PIERRE-LUC DUBOIS 1093 NHL Columbus Blue Jackets11 OLIVER BJORKSTRAND 1415 NHL Columbus Blue Jackets14 ALEXANDER WENNBERG 1195 NHL Columbus Blue Jackets15 DILLON HEATHERINGTON 654 AHL Texas Stars17 VLADISLAV GAVRIKOV 607 KHL SKA St. Petersburg20 BLAKE SIEBENALER 580 AHL Cleveland Monsters20 ANDREW PEEKE 358 NCAA Univ. of Notre DameCarolina2 NOAH HANIFIN 2090 NHL Carolina Hurricanes5 JANNE KUOKKANEN 1369 AHL Charlotte Checkers5 ROLAND MCKEOWN 873 AHL Charlotte Checkers7 LUCAS WALLMARK 1621 AHL Charlotte Checkers9 BRETT PESCE 993 NHL Carolina Hurricanes9 SEBASTIAN AHO 1728 NHL Carolina Hurricanes12 ELIAS LINDHOLM 1307 NHL Carolina Hurricanes13 JAKE BEAN 552 WHL Calgary Hitmen19 HAYDN FLEURY 594 NHL Carolina Hurricanes20 VALENTIN ZYKOV 1011 AHL Charlotte CheckersToronto1 TIMOTHY LILJEGREN 1407 AHL Toronto Marlies1 AUSTON MATTHEWS 3482 NHL Toronto Maple Leafs ** edited because, being born near the day separating years, he got into wrong year9 EEMELI RÄSÄNEN 523 OHL Kingston Frontenacs12 TRAVIS DERMOTT 873 AHL Toronto Marlies13 ANDREW NIELSEN 832 AHL Toronto Marlies13 MITCHELL MARNER 1417 NHL Toronto Maple Leafs14 WILLIAM NYLANDER 1362 NHL Toronto Maple Leafs20 KASPERI KAPANEN 1042 AHL Toronto MarliesBuffalo5 JACK EICHEL 2283 NHL Buffalo Sabres6 RASMUS RISTOLAINEN 1273 NHL Buffalo Sabres8 BRENDAN GUHLE 1254 AHL Rochester Americans11 RASMUS ASPLUND 877 SHL Färjestad BK14 CASEY MITTELSTADT 738 NCAA Univ. of Minnesota16 MARCUS DAVIDSSON 656 SHL Djurgårdens IF16 ALEXANDER NYLANDER 722 AHL Rochester Americans17 JACOB BRYSON 427 NCAA Providence CollegeTampa Bay1 MIKHAIL SERGACHYOV 2895 NHL Tampa Bay Lightning2 DOMINIK MASIN 1212 AHL Syracuse Crunch5 BRAYDEN POINT 2074 NHL Tampa Bay Lightning8 BEN THOMAS 810 AHL Syracuse Crunch9 CAL FOOTE 694 WHL Kelowna Rockets9 CARTER VERHAEGHE 1488 AHL Syracuse Crunch15 LIBOR HÁJEK 430 WHL Saskatoon Blades 20 ERIK CERNAK 621 AHL Syracuse CrunchEdmonton1 CONNOR MCDAVID 4281 NHL Edmonton Oilers3 DARNELL NURSE 1644 NHL Edmonton Oilers4 LEON DRAISAITL 2104 NHL Edmonton Oilers14 ETHAN BEAR 791 AHL Bakersfield Condors15 JESSE PULJUJÄRVI 742 NHL Edmonton Oilers18 FILIP BERGLUND 639 SHL Skellefteå AIK18 TYLER BENSON 675 WHL Vancouver GiantsCalgary Flames3 SEAN MONAHAN 1991 NHL Calgary Flames3 MATTHEW TKACHUK 1450 NHL Calgary Flames4 RASMUS ANDERSSON 1620 AHL Stockton Heat10 ANDREW MANGIAPANE 1550 AHL Stockton Heat11 JUUSO VÄLIMÄKI 559 WHL Tri-City Americans11 OLIVER KYLINGTON 878 AHL Stockton Heat14 RUSHAN RAFIKOV 805 KHL Lokomotiv YaroslavlNew York Rangers2 FILIP CHYTIL 1820 AHL Hartford Wolf Pack8 PAVEL BUCHNEVICH 1514 NHL New York Rangers9 LIAS ANDERSSON 947 SHL Frölunda HC18 RYAN GRAVES 405 AHL Hartford Wolf Pack19 SEAN DAY 372 OHL Windsor Spitfires20 MORGAN BARRON 618 NCAA Cornell Univ.20 ROBIN KOVACS 903 SHL Luleå HFNew York Islanders4 BENJAMIN MIRAGEAS 861 NCAA Providence College8 MATHEW BARZAL 1962 NHL New York Islanders10 RYAN PULOCK 930 NHL New York Islanders12 SEBASTIAN AHO 722 AHL Bridgeport Sound Tigers16 ANATOLI GOLYSHEV 1095 KHL Avtomobilist Yekaterinburg18 DAVID QUENNEVILLE 395 WHL Medicine Hat Tigers19 MITCHELL VANDE SOMPEL 635 AHL Bridgeport Sound TigersNashville4 EELI TOLVANEN 1387 KHL Jokerit6 FRÉDÉRIC ALLARD 896 AHL Milwaukee Admirals10 DANTE FABBRO 644 NCAA Boston Univ.11 KEVIN FIALA 1498 NHL Nashville Predators12 PATRICK HARPER 854 NCAA Boston Univ.18 JACK DOUGHERTY 595 AHL Milwaukee Admirals18 GRANT MISMASH 649 NCAA Univ. of North DakotaPhiladelphia5 IVAN PROVOROV 1485 NHL Philadelphia Flyers8 MORGAN FROST 952 OHL Sault Ste. Marie Greyhounds6 WADE ALLISON 1313 NCAA Western Michigan Univ.12 SAMUEL MORIN 872 AHL Lehigh Valley Phantoms16 TRAVIS SANHEIM 638 NHL Philadelphia Flyers17 ROBERT HÄGG 495 NHL Philadelphia Flyers18 COOPER MARODY 987 NCAA Univ. of MichiganVegas1 SHEA THEODORE 2640 NHL Vegas Golden Knights5 LUKAS ELVENES 1151 Allsvenskan IK Oskarshamn6 NICOLAS HAGUE 759 OHL Mississauga Steelheads12 CODY GLASS 772 WHL Portland Winterhawks13 NICK SUZUKI 740 OHL Owen Sound Attack18 ALEX TUCH 1156 NHL Vegas Golden KnightsOttawa3 THOMAS CHABOT 1890 NHL Ottawa Senators9 THOMAS CHABOT 1231 AHL Belleville Senators11 MAX LAJOIE 627 AHL Belleville Senators11 CHRISTIAN JAROS 725 AHL Belleville Senators13 JONATHAN DAHLÉN 816 Allsvenskan Timrå IK19 CHRISTIAN WOLANIN 398 NCAA Univ. of North Dakota20 DRAKE BATHERSON 636 QMJHL Cape Breton Screaming EaglesFlorida1 AARON EKBLAD 1320 NHL Florida Panthers2 MAXWELL GILDON 1140 NCAA Univ. of New Hampshire2 ALEKSANDER BARKOV 2341 NHL Florida Panthers10 ALEKSI HEPONIEMI 945 WHL Swift Current Broncos12 DENIS MALGIN 1459 AHL Springfield Thunderbirds20 IAN MCCOSHEN 396 NHL Florida PanthersMontreal1 NIKITA SCHERBAK 2609 AHL Laval Rocket11 RYAN POEHLING 881 NCAA St. Cloud State Univ.13 JONATHAN DROUIN 1197 NHL Montréal Canadiens14 CALE FLEURY 468 WHL Regina Pats18 CALE FLEURY 334 WHL Kootenay Ice19 JARRET TYSZKA 318 WHL Seattle ThunderbirdsColorado1 NATHAN MACKINNON 3556 NHL Colorado Avalanche7 MIKKO RANTANEN 1991 NHL Colorado Avalanche7 CONOR TIMMINS 729 OHL Sault Ste. Marie Greyhounds11 NIKITA ZADOROV 920 NHL Colorado Avalanche20 CALE MAKAR 310 NCAA UMass (Amherst)Vancouver1 ELIAS PETTERSSON 3234 SHL Växjö Lakers HC2 BROCK BOESER 3520 NHL Vancouver Canucks5 BO HORVAT 1760 NHL Vancouver Canucks5 OLLI JUOLEVI 1409 Liiga TPS 9 NIKOLAI GOLDOBIN 1591 AHL Utica Comets15 KOLE LIND 726 WHL Kelowna RocketsSt Louis6 SAMUEL BLAIS 1719 AHL San Antonio Rampage7 ROBERT THOMAS 963 OHL London Knights8 TAGE THOMPSON 1203 AHL San Antonio Rampage9 JORDAN KYROU 1198 OHL Sarnia Sting13 JAKE WALMAN 691 AHL Chicago WolvesBoston Bruins2 CHARLIE MCAVOY 2287 NHL Boston Bruins3 DAVID PASTRNAK 2112 NHL Boston Bruins6 DANTON HEINEN 1734 NHL Boston Bruins15 JAKE DEBRUSK 1301 NHL Boston BruinsDallas6 JOHN NYBERG 846 SHL Frölunda HC8 MIRO HEISKANEN 719 Liiga HIFK14 JAKOB STENQVIST 452 Allsvenskan IF Björklöven17 JASON ROBERTSON 650 OHL Kingston FrontenacsAnaheim10 JACOB LARSSON 1143 AHL San Diego Gulls10 MARCUS PETTERSSON 735 AHL San Diego Gulls15 ONDREJ KASE 1344 NHL Anaheim DucksWashington4 LUCAS JOHANSEN 1411 AHL Hershey Bears5 BENTON MAASS 850 NCAA Univ. of New Hampshire13 MADISON BOWEY 805 NHL Washington CapitalsDetroit2 DYLAN LARKIN 2533 NHL Detroit Red Wings8 FILIP HRONEK 701 AHL Grand Rapids Griffins17 PATRICK HOLWAY 668 NCAA Univ. of MaineSan Jose16 JÉRÉMY ROY 762 AHL San Jose Barracuda17 KEVIN LABANC 1247 NHL San Jose SharksMinnesota11 KIRILL KAPRIZOV 1463 KHL CSKA Moskva17 LUKE KUNIN 700 AHL Iowa Wild31 LUKE KUNIN 516 NHL Minnesota WildPittsburgh15 JAKE GUENTZEL 1167 NHL Pittsburgh Penguins16 DANIEL SPRONG 1161 AHL Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguinsrakii rascatoons1 TIMOTHY LILJEGREN 1407 AHL Toronto Marlies3 JAKOB CHYCHRUN 1552 NHL Arizona Coyotes3 MICHAEL ANDERSON 929 NCAA Univ. of Minnesota-Duluth4 RASMUS ANDERSSON 1620 AHL Stockton Heat4 JESPER BRATT 1424 NHL New Jersey Devils5 BRAYDEN POINT 2074 NHL Tampa Bay Lightning10 JOSH BROOK 673 WHL Moose Jaw Warriors10 WILLIAM PETHRUS 606 Division 1 Mariestad BoIS 18 BRINSON PASICHNUK 430 NCAA Arizona State Univ. 20 KRISTAPS ZILE 426 KHL Dinamo Riga 20 ARTYOM MINULIN 322 WHL Swift Current Broncos Edited January 12, 2018 by utsvävande Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LGR4GM Posted January 6, 2018 Report Share Posted January 6, 2018 I notice a shift in our drafting ability Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rakish Posted January 6, 2018 Author Report Share Posted January 6, 2018 I notice a shift in our drafting ability 2017 looks good at this point. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LGR4GM Posted January 6, 2018 Report Share Posted January 6, 2018 2017 looks good at this point.2016 isn't terrible either. There's a lot of weight to the argument we're bad because of a decade of bad drafting Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eleven Posted January 6, 2018 Report Share Posted January 6, 2018 How do you come up with the raw rating number? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rakish Posted January 6, 2018 Author Report Share Posted January 6, 2018 It's points (goals plus assists), times the rating for the league for your age (so scoring points as a 18 year old NCAA player is more valuable than a 22 year old NCAA player) Times the amount you outscore your team, or are being outscored by the best player (therefore, Eichel at 17 outscored his BU or Bost Col (whichever) by a lot, giving him huge bonus points, Middlestadt at 18 is being outscored by teammates, so fewer bonus points). This has an interesting tale end, as someone like Pu at 17 is undervalued because the rest of the team is good (this is hard to deal with). I think currently, defensemen are graded by how they outscore their defense teammates, but next time I feel motivated, I'll try to improve that metric. You're going to argue: 'Well yeah, being on a good team is different than being on a bad team' So: Times how good the team is. I use goal differential because some leagues have ties, and it made my brain hurt. Times how big the player is at 17. Evander Kane is always discounted some by my charts because he was really tiny at 17. Times your age. A player's output almost doubles each year, so a January born player has to be discounted as an August born player has to be bonused (turns out that's not a word) This is particularly tricky as the curve isn't straight (Really good January born players (McDavid and Stamkos, among others, were discounted too heavily previously because it doesn't matter to them, wereas a 4th round pick born in January never breaks out). I think that's it. Plus minus relative to your team turns out to be slightly inverse of what you think it should be, as far as I can tell. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rakish Posted January 6, 2018 Author Report Share Posted January 6, 2018 The horror! Checking through my drafting contest, Bob McKenzie, of all people, drafted Lukas Elvenes with the 99th pick. Fortunately for me, Bob's top pick, Vilardi, has been injured and hasn't played yet. Most everyone chose Vilardi, and 2 of my top 3 picks have been injured, so an update to Mom's Basement Stakes would be premature. This is the same data, not separating forwards and defensemans, in the form of a redraft. This is the 18 year olds, so any overagers won't be included. 1 ELIAS PETTERSSON 3234 SHL Växjö Lakers HC2 FILIP CHYTIL 1820 AHL Hartford Wolf Pack3 NICO HISCHIER 1431 NHL New Jersey Devils4 TIMOTHY LILJEGREN 1407 AHL Toronto Marlies5 EELI TOLVANEN 1387 KHL Jokerit6 LUKAS ELVENES 1151 Allsvenskan IK Oskarshamn7 MAXWELL GILDON 1140 NCAA Univ. of New Hampshire8 KRISTIAN VESALAINEN 1127 Liiga HPK9 ROBERT THOMAS 963 OHL London Knights10 MORGAN FROST 952 OHL Sault Ste. Marie Greyhounds11 LIAS ANDERSSON 947 SHL Frölunda HC12 ALEKSI HEPONIEMI 945 WHL Swift Current Broncos13 MICHAEL ANDERSON 929 NCAA Univ. of Minnesota-Duluth14 RYAN POEHLING 881 NCAA St. Cloud State Univ.15 BENJAMIN MIRAGEAS 861 NCAA Providence College16 BENTON MAASS 850 NCAA Univ. of New Hampshire17 CODY GLASS 772 WHL Portland Winterhawks18 NICOLAS HAGUE 759 OHL Mississauga Steelheads19 NICK SUZUKI 740 OHL Owen Sound Attack20 CASEY MITTELSTADT 738 NCAA Univ. of Minnesota21 CONOR TIMMINS 729 OHL Sault Ste. Marie Greyhounds22 KOLE LIND 726 WHL Kelowna Rockets23 MIRO HEISKANEN 719 Liiga HIFK24 CAL FOOTE 694 WHL Kelowna Rockets25 MARCUS DAVIDSSON 656 SHL Djurgårdens IF26 JASON ROBERTSON 650 OHL Kingston Frontenacs27 GRANT MISMASH 649 NCAA Univ. of North Dakota29 MORGAN BARRON 618 NCAA Cornell Univ.30 SHANE BOWERS 608 NCAA Boston Univ.31 KRISTIAN RØYKÅS MARTHINSEN 602 J20 Elit Almtuna IS J2032 MARTIN NECAS 583 Czech HC Kometa Brno33 HENRI JOKIHARJU 575 WHL Portland Winterhawks34 JUUSO VÄLIMÄKI 559 WHL Tri-City Americans35 KIRILL MAXIMOV 549 OHL Niagara IceDogs36 MICHAEL RASMUSSEN 544 WHL Tri-City Americans37 OWEN TIPPETT 528 OHL Mississauga Steelheads38 EEMELI RÄSÄNEN 523 OHL Kingston Frontenacs39 REILLY WALSH 521 NCAA Harvard Univ.40 STELIO MATTHEOS 505 WHL Brandon Wheat Kings41 JACK STUDNICKA 493 OHL Oshawa Generals42 ALEXANDRE TEXIER 487 Liiga KalPa43 KLIM KOSTIN 481 AHL San Antonio Rampage44 CALE FLEURY 468 WHL Regina Pats45 BEN JONES 429 OHL Niagara IceDogs46 JONAH GADJOVICH 416 OHL Owen Sound Attack47 NOLAN PATRICK 400 NHL Philadelphia Flyers48 ALEXANDER CHMELEVSKI 398 OHL Ottawa 67's49 FILIP SVENINGSSON 389 SuperElit HV71 J2050 IAN MITCHELL 384 NCAA Univ. of Denver Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Taro T Posted January 6, 2018 Report Share Posted January 6, 2018 Glad to see Davidsson ranked as high as you've got him. He was very impressive in the WJC's. He's fast, a beast along the boards, & was good at passing the puck to high probability areas. Don't expect he's top 6 material, but could definitely see him centering a 3rd/4th line effectively. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rakish Posted January 6, 2018 Author Report Share Posted January 6, 2018 Glad to see Davidsson ranked as high as you've got him. He was very impressive in the WJC's. He's fast, a beast along the boards, & was good at passing the puck to high probability areas. Don't expect he's top 6 material, but could definitely see him centering a 3rd/4th line effectively. I think it was a good pick. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Taro T Posted January 6, 2018 Report Share Posted January 6, 2018 I think it was a good pick. :thumbsup: He seems like he'll be a good one. Plus w/ his curly blonde locks, Brandon'll be able to market the #### out of him to the Pominville teenyboppers looking for a new "cutie's" sweater to buy. :p Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.