Sabre appraisal post All Star Game

[jsb]

Expected a little more scoring out of these guys but overall they are not that far behind my expectations. I think getting 36 more points out of this season to get to 80 is doable and if not hopefully that’ll translate into a top 5 pick at the very least.  My all star break appraisal begins:

DEFENSE

Overall they are much better than last year.  Ristolainen is progressing in his development and is quickly turning into the #1 guy we all hoped he would become. I’m not as down with Bogosian as some are and I think he’ll either end up with Risto on the #1 pairing or be a solid #2 pairing.

Major weaknesses of the group as a whole is speed and offensive weapons besides Risto and the ability to get the puck out of their own zone. Gorges is a good positional defender and appears to be a good leader of this group but IMO is not good in front of the net and has little offensive potential. I don’t think he’s well suited for the #1 pairing and his best spot would be as Bogosian’s partner on the #2 pairing or as the #3 LHD. At the beginning of the year I was hoping for a Pysyk/McCabe pairing but as we move forward, I foresee these guys as a good #3 pairing.

I see Franson-Weber-Colaiacovo as stopgaps and it will be interesting if all or any of the 3 get moved at the trading deadline.

GOALTENDER

Very hard to give an opinion on the 3G’s we’ve seen so far. I don’t think Johnson will be a Sabre past this season even if he doesn’t get move at the trading deadline and I just haven’t seen enough of Lehner-Ullmark to give a grade to but being young and the upside is there, this may or may not turn out to be a strength. I will say 1 thing about Lehner, that is one BIG dude and probably deserves the title as The Big Johnson

OFFENSE

The #1 positive is the development of Reinhart and the obvious potential of Eichel. It will be interesting to see if Blysma moves Reinhart back to Center of keeps him at ROR’s right winger. Moving forward the 2^nd line to me is set with Kane-ROR and Reinhart. The #1 line will go to Eichel as soon as they find a legitimate RW to play with him. I’m hopeful we’ll be able to pick up 1 of the boys from Finland (P+L) to pair up with him along with Girgensons who appears to have found his way finally paired with Jack. We’ll see.

I’m guessing Legwand is gone after this year and Gionta if for nothing else but age is close behind. The major disappointment this season has been the zero production from the 3^rd and 4^th line. I think the main reason Kane is on the 3^rd line at the moment is to help the production there and to get McGinn seen for a trade at the deadline.  I’m not a Moulson fan but even I didn’t foresee him just falling off the cliff this year in production and my high hopes for Ennis has been dashed with his poor play to start the year on top of all his injuries. The Sabres need a major infusion of speed going forward here also.

GOING FORWARD-TRADE DEADLINE-FREE AGENCY

Hopefully Fasching is ready next year, a stud in the draft is available. Someone from Bailey/Baptiste/Guhle shows they are either NHL ready or will be shortly. Trade deadline deals seem to be for draft choices this year. The Ennis injury really hurts getting a top 4 Dman at the trade deadline without giving up something valuable. A draft deal ala the ROR deal last summer or FAgency is a way to probably pick up a defensive player and a winger. Without breaking the bank I think Goligoski is available, Yandle seems to be on the outs with the Rangers also. I’d also like to see the Sabres make a run at Boedeker if he isn’t signed by his club. He’ll bring more production and add much needed speed to the lineup.

[MattPie]

Expected a little more scoring out of these guys but overall they are not that far behind my expectations. I think getting 36 more points out of this season to get to 80 is doable and if not hopefully that’ll translate into a top 5 pick at the very least.  My all star break appraisal begins:

DEFENSE

Overall they are much better than last year.  Ristolainen is progressing in his development and is quickly turning into the #1 guy we all hoped he would become. I’m not as down with Bogosian as some are and I think he’ll either end up with Risto on the #1 pairing or be a solid #2 pairing.

Major weaknesses of the group as a whole is speed and offensive weapons besides Risto and the ability to get the puck out of their own zone. Gorges is a good positional defender and appears to be a good leader of this group but IMO is not good in front of the net and has little offensive potential. I don’t think he’s well suited for the #1 pairing and his best spot would be as Bogosian’s partner on the #2 pairing or as the #3 LHD. At the beginning of the year I was hoping for a Pysyk/McCabe pairing but as we move forward, I foresee these guys as a good #3 pairing.

I see Franson-Weber-Colaiacovo as stopgaps and it will be interesting if all or any of the 3 get moved at the trading deadline.

GOALTENDER

Very hard to give an opinion on the 3G’s we’ve seen so far. I don’t think Johnson will be a Sabre past this season even if he doesn’t get move at the trading deadline and I just haven’t seen enough of Lehner-Ullmark to give a grade to but being young and the upside is there, this may or may not turn out to be a strength. I will say 1 thing about Lehner, that is one BIG dude and probably deserves the title as The Big Johnson

OFFENSE

The #1 positive is the development of Reinhart and the obvious potential of Eichel. It will be interesting to see if Blysma moves Reinhart back to Center of keeps him at ROR’s right winger. Moving forward the 2^nd line to me is set with Kane-ROR and Reinhart. The #1 line will go to Eichel as soon as they find a legitimate RW to play with him. I’m hopeful we’ll be able to pick up 1 of the boys from Finland (P+L) to pair up with him along with Girgensons who appears to have found his way finally paired with Jack. We’ll see.

I’m guessing Legwand is gone after this year and Gionta if for nothing else but age is close behind. The major disappointment this season has been the zero production from the 3^rd and 4^th line. I think the main reason Kane is on the 3^rd line at the moment is to help the production there and to get McGinn seen for a trade at the deadline.  I’m not a Moulson fan but even I didn’t foresee him just falling off the cliff this year in production and my high hopes for Ennis has been dashed with his poor play to start the year on top of all his injuries. The Sabres need a major infusion of speed going forward here also.

GOING FORWARD-TRADE DEADLINE-FREE AGENCY

Hopefully Fasching is ready next year, a stud in the draft is available. Someone from Bailey/Baptiste/Guhle shows they are either NHL ready or will be shortly. Trade deadline deals seem to be for draft choices this year. The Ennis injury really hurts getting a top 4 Dman at the trade deadline without giving up something valuable. A draft deal ala the ROR deal last summer or FAgency is a way to probably pick up a defensive player and a winger. Without breaking the bank I think Goligoski is available, Yandle seems to be on the outs with the Rangers also. I’d also like to see the Sabres make a run at Boedeker if he isn’t signed by his club. He’ll bring more production and add much needed speed to the lineup.

 

Nice post.

 

D: I don't disagree with your assessment, but if Psysk/McCabe just end up being a good 3rd pair I'm a little disappointed. I figured them for 2nd pair and solid.

 

G: I was going to say there's an outside chance Johnson stays and keeps Lehner on his toes while Ullmark gets games under his sensible Swedish belt in the AHL. But, knowing GMTM Johnson will be dealt, and some available backup brought in in FA. Maybe that's Johnson, but I think he'd sign somewhere where he has a better chance of being the #1; I think next year is Lehner's to lose.

 

O: The only way I see Reinhart moving to Center is if ROR moves to wing (where he played some in COL). I don't think either ends up on the 3rd line, although Rienhart's play this year suggests he could do it. I think it's a waste though, you can find guys like Larsson for 3C easier than top picks. Maybe in a series situation where you want to exploit a particular team's weak third pair and have three lines with legitimate scoring threats it would make sense. I'd be wary of relying on a draft pick to fill the hole on RW next year. On a team that's established (Detroit, Chicago, etc.) it might work, but throwing another kid onto a team of kids seems too Emontonian for comfort.

Edited February 3, 2016 by MattPie

[jsb]

Nice post.

 

D: I don't disagree with your assessment, but if Psysk/McCabe just end up being a good 3rd pair I'm a little disappointed. I figured them for 2nd pair and solid.

 

G: I was going to say there's an outside chance Johnson stays and keeps Lehner on his toes while Ullmark gets games under his sensible Swedish belt in the AHL. But, knowing GMTM Johnson will be dealt, and some available backup brought in in FA. Maybe that's Johnson, but I think he'd sign somewhere where he has a better chance of being the #1; I think next year is Lehner's to lose.

 

O: The only way I see Reinhart moving to Center is if ROR moves to wing (where he played some in COL). I don't think either ends up on the 3rd line, although Rienhart's play this year suggests he could do it. I think it's a waste though, you can find guys like Larsson for 3C easier than top picks. Maybe in a series situation where you want to exploit a particular team's weak third pair and have three lines with legitimate scoring threats it would make sense. I'd be wary of relying on a draft pick to fill the hole on RW next year. On a team that's established (Detroit, Chicago, etc.) it might work, but throwing another kid onto a team of kids seems too Emontonian for comfort.

I can't say I disagree with anything you have to say. I think this trade deadline will give a big time clue as to what direction GMTM will go moving forward. If he gives up the older guys for draft choices, I'm guessing he's going young next year with the forwards but to do that and not go Edmontonian (I like that word) he's going to have to beef up the D corps with some faster and less offensively challenged Dmen.

[PASabreFan]

Does Murray have the assets to shake up the roster as much, or almost as much, as he did last year? Or is it building from within from here on out with some outside tweaks? I feel like a second culling/shakeup is needed. The team as currently constructed has underperformed and that's worrisome because most of the guys who are supposed to be on a contending team relatively soon are not getting it done. Still, it's early in the rebuild, and maybe they catch fire next October and we're off.

[MattPie]

Does Murray have the assets to shake up the roster as much, or almost as much, as he did last year? Or is it building from within from here on out with some outside tweaks? I feel like a second culling/shakeup is needed. The team as currently constructed has underperformed and that's worrisome because most of the guys who are supposed to be on a contending team relatively soon are not getting it done. Still, it's early in the rebuild, and maybe they catch fire next October and we're off.

 

He doesn't have as much to trade this time around, so I don't know that we'll see the Kane/Myers/Stafford/Bogo mega deal. You'll certainly see some of the UFAs go, probably for mid to high picks. Maybe we see someone like Ennis or a Decent D go to get a LHD or RW back. Otherwise, I don't see too many guys on the NHL roster that I'm interested in moving unless the price is right.

[Taro T]

Does Murray have the assets to shake up the roster as much, or almost as much, as he did last year? Or is it building from within from here on out with some outside tweaks? I feel like a second culling/shakeup is needed. The team as currently constructed has underperformed and that's worrisome because most of the guys who are supposed to be on a contending team relatively soon are not getting it done. Still, it's early in the rebuild, and maybe they catch fire next October and we're off.

As much, definitely not.

 

Almost as much, if Ennis gets heathy, probably. (And that comes w/ a caveat, looking at what happens from here through the off-season; if the period in question is only up through the trade deadline, then the answer becomes no again.) I have to expect, especially w/ Ennis still on the shelf, that most deals though the trade deadline will be expiring assets for prospects/ picks.

 

In the off-season we could (me hopes) see a couple of bigger deals addressing the 2 main holes on this squad.

 

Not including backup goalie, this roster will probably see 6 new faces on opening night. A normal turnover seems to be in the 4-6 skater range. I'd expect TM to still be aggressive this off-season, even though the team is in a position that they COULD only bring in 2-4 new skaters, I'd expect that wouldn't improve the team as quickly as TM wants which is why I'll go w/ 6 new faces (not including Schaller as new, but would consider Varone as new if he makes the squad next year).

[jsb]

Does Murray have the assets to shake up the roster as much, or almost as much, as he did last year? Or is it building from within from here on out with some outside tweaks? I feel like a second culling/shakeup is needed. The team as currently constructed has underperformed and that's worrisome because most of the guys who are supposed to be on a contending team relatively soon are not getting it done. Still, it's early in the rebuild, and maybe they catch fire next October and we're off.

Those are good questions, unless you can add value to some players by adding a draft pick to them, I don't see any blockbuster trades coming along. I think they should add by selective free agency. Not necessarily the top money guys but picking choosing some good younger guys at value. I think I would prefer they build their talent pool in Rochester so when guys go down or leave eventually you have a NHL ready replacement and not bringing up AHL lifers.

They presently have no NHL ready guys for depth and eventually that will kill any rebuilding plan.

Any chance for a quick turnaround revolves first with getting at least 1 top 4 Dman, either a lefty or a righty and moving Bogo to the left side. They need speed and productivity up front also but I think as Eichel and Reinhart develop that'll be doable but the backend is dire in need of speed and quality depth. I may be wrong but Guhle is the only guy below the top club I can see as a future NHL'r.

[Taro T]

Those are good questions, unless you can add value to some players by adding a draft pick to them, I don't see any blockbuster trades coming along. I think they should add by selective free agency. Not necessarily the top money guys but picking choosing some good younger guys at value. I think I would prefer they build their talent pool in Rochester so when guys go down or leave eventually you have a NHL ready replacement and not bringing up AHL lifers.

They presently have no NHL ready guys for depth and eventually that will kill any rebuilding plan.

Any chance for a quick turnaround revolves first with getting at least 1 top 4 Dman, either a lefty or a righty and moving Bogo to the left side. They need speed and productivity up front also but I think as Eichel and Reinhart develop that'll be doable but the backend is dire in need of speed and quality depth. I may be wrong but Guhle is the only guy below the top club I can see as a future NHL'r.

They don't. But a few comments on that.

 

1. Their young (read: AHL age appropriate) players are already in the NHL with several excelling.

 

2. Schaller is (barring injuries) in the A, and I'd expect him up next year full time on 4th line. Baptiste &/or Bailey will probably be injury callups, maybe Carrier too. Ullmark would be an obvious injury callup as well.

 

3. How many teams are heavily stocked w/ NHL-ready players in the A? If the team has a lot, it says 1 of 2 things: the team is very strong in the NHL as they don't have room for those guys & are better off (or believe they are better off) keeping the pipeline stocked rather than trading for even more well-seasoned talent for the NHL team; or thry are horribly mismanaged and don't know how to properly allocate their assets.

 

4. As the team comes out of their rebuild, & they start having better seasoned talent in the NHL, they will be restocking the prospect pipeline w/ more 1 year away guys than they currently have. (If they don't, TM isn't very good at his job.)

 

5. W/ the bulk of the "new core" (wow, is that term "core" ever grating - we need a new word for it ;)) in their teens & early 20's, they don't have AS MUCH need for prospects being ready to jump in. They obviously still have the need for it, but not as much as a team like Detroit where many of the leaders are VERY long in the tooth. (& Detroit seems, once again the model to emulate & compare towards as they always seem to have some kid ready & able to hop in.)

[jsb]

 

 

They obviously still have the need for it, but not as much as a team like Detroit where many of the leaders are VERY long in the tooth. (& Detroit seems, once again the model to emulate & compare towards as they always seem to have some kid ready & able to hop in.)

This is exactly what I am referring to. With this team finally watchable again what I don't want to have happen is a 2-3 year window of opportunity then nosedive again because we have no depth in the system like the Penguins and end up mediocre because of it.

Building depth IMO doesn't happen overnight, you need to breed your steed properly.

[Taro T]

This is exactly what I am referring to. With this team finally watchable again what I don't want to have happen is a 2-3 year window of opportunity then nosedive again because we have no depth in the system like the Penguins and end up mediocre because of it.

Building depth IMO doesn't happen overnight, you need to breed your steed properly.

But if they DID have that depth at present, it would be killing the BUILDING plan as those guys would need to be in the NHL right now, not getting seasoned in the A. (And, they ARE in the NHL. Eichel, Reinhart, Ristoleinen, Pysyk, & McCabe are all (Pysyk possibly not) on ELC's & are all (relatively) major contributors. Girgensons, Foligno, & Larsson would just now be in year 1 or 2 for Detroit. They've already been up.)

 

If in 3 years, the cupboard appears bare, by all means bemoan the lack of depth in Ra-cha-cha. But today, by definition they can't have depth there because they don't have it in Buffalo.

[jsb]

But if they DID have that depth at present, it would be killing the BUILDING plan as those guys would need to be in the NHL right now, not getting seasoned in the A. (And, they ARE in the NHL. Eichel, Reinhart, Ristoleinen, Pysyk, & McCabe are all (Pysyk possibly not) on ELC's & are all (relatively) major contributors. Girgensons, Foligno, & Larsson would just now be in year 1 or 2 for Detroit. They've already been up.)

 

If in 3 years, the cupboard appears bare, by all means bemoan the lack of depth in Ra-cha-cha. But today, by definition they can't have depth there because they don't have it in Buffalo.

I'm not talking about the guys already here, I'm speaking of the possibility of trading whatever assets they have left in the food chain, otherwise I agree with you, I like the Red Wings way of not coming up until you've earned it.

Edited February 3, 2016 by jsb

[Taro T]

I'm not talking about the guys already here, I'm speaking of the possibility of trading whatever assets they have left in the food chain, otherwise I agree with you, I like the Red Wings way of not coming up until you've earned it.

Not following you w/ respect to the bolded.

[jsb]

Not following you w/ respect to the bolded.

Example..... top 5-10 prospects in the system. I'm not against trading anyone in particular but the more often you trade 2-3-4 prospects per guy, the more empty the cupboard is. At a certain point you want to be developing your guys to your system.

[Taro T]

Example..... top 5-10 prospects in the system. I'm not against trading anyone in particular but the more often you trade 2-3-4 prospects per guy, the more empty the cupboard is. At a certain point you want to be developing your guys to your system.

OK, I see what you're getting at, but don't see it as a big issue at present.

 

Temporarily the cupboard becomes barren w/ the multiple prospects for player/ better prospect. But that's ok. They only get 50 guys in the pro system at any 1 time (plus guys in junior, etc that they have rights to; which right now includes Fasching & Guhle who most here are high on) & a lot of those 50 (10-15) will never sniff the NHL and a bunch more will only have a handful of games in the show. TM is on record saying he believes he knows pretty well which ones in the system will pan out, so there's always a fair # that are tradeable. (Would be ticked if he didn't believe that, btw ;) )

 

The lower you go in the foodchain, the more easily replaceable they become, so I like quantity for quality trades.

 

And at minimum, 3 of the Sabres top 4 prospects are already in Buffalo which skews the outlook of the pipeline.

 

Personally, I prefer having Kane & Bogosian (& Kasdorf) to Myers, the 2nd a rental Stafford would've brought, Armia, Lemieux, & whoever the Sabres would have drafted w/ the pick. Bogosian brings a skill set that this team needs more IMHO than the skill set Myers brings. And again, IMHO, having Kane today (along w/ whatever increase in probability of landing Eichel their NOT having him last year) is worth the (replaceable) potential of the rest of the trade.

[dudacek]

They don't. But a few comments on that.

 

1. Their young (read: AHL age appropriate) players are already in the NHL with several excelling.

 

2. Schaller is (barring injuries) in the A, and I'd expect him up next year full time on 4th line. Baptiste &/or Bailey will probably be injury callups, maybe Carrier too. Ullmark would be an obvious injury callup as well.

 

3. How many teams are heavily stocked w/ NHL-ready players in the A? If the team has a lot, it says 1 of 2 things: the team is very strong in the NHL as they don't have room for those guys & are better off (or believe they are better off) keeping the pipeline stocked rather than trading for even more well-seasoned talent for the NHL team; or thry are horribly mismanaged and don't know how to properly allocate their assets.

 

4. As the team comes out of their rebuild, & they start having better seasoned talent in the NHL, they will be restocking the prospect pipeline w/ more 1 year away guys than they currently have. (If they don't, TM isn't very good at his job.)

 

5. W/ the bulk of the "new core" (wow, is that term "core" ever grating - we need a new word for it ;)) in their teens & early 20's, they don't have AS MUCH need for prospects being ready to jump in. They obviously still have the need for it, but not as much as a team like Detroit where many of the leaders are VERY long in the tooth. (& Detroit seems, once again the model to emulate & compare towards as they always seem to have some kid ready & able to hop in.)

 

Solid opening post and I agree with Taro's additions above.

 

Three things that need to be kept in perspective in terms of the pipeline:

 

1) The Sabres biggest potential for improvement resides in 15 and 23.

If they progress to first-liners or even elite players, think of how they will elevate the play of those around them.

 

2) Even if you discount the potentially elite players we got in the past three first rounds, the Sabres still have six players (Guhle, Cornel, Karabacek, Hurley, Carrier and Bailey) from the past three second rounds in the system, along with Fasching and Baptiste. Very few teams have that many bodies in that age group. The cupboard is not bare and there is no need to rush any of them.

 

3) We should add a top-10 (likely top-five) pick this year, plus a second-rounder and three thirds, we have two second-rounders next year and will likely use McGinn and others to add to the pipeline.

 

We lack the bodies to make more blockbuster trades but we are in a very solid position to add pieces to put us over the top when necessary.

Edited February 4, 2016 by dudacek