rakii's draft thread

LGR4GM · June 14, 2016

I think there's a place for the Mike Weber type of player, but I'm fairly certain, without looking at the comparables, that size of player busts 80% of the time, just because it's hard to be 6'7" and skate very well.

I have to go through the list and add as many as I can find, I'm sure he'll be among them.

What do you think of Sean Day?

His numbers are scary. I understand he was granted exceptional status and is good at hockey but that hasn't translated at all to real hockey play. At #8 I pass on him, at #38 I might take him if Dineen is gone but at this stage his development has been stagnant and isn't because he physically can't do it.

Let's ignore his first season and pretend he didn't get exceptional status. That means last year as a 2nd year player he had 0.386ppg and in the prior season had a 0.590ppg. If he had gone from that 0.59 up to say .75 then sure I might be interested because I see an increase but he doesn't. Add to that his terrible plus minus which finally drops down to just a meh level and it all combines to raise a lot of red flags.

rakish · June 14, 2016

I'll try to get to his comparables, he's about 10 or 12 from where I am now, but his 16th year was really good, and his 17th year really terrible. The sort of numbers that makes me wonder.

Derrico · June 14, 2016

His numbers are scary. I understand he was granted exceptional status and is good at hockey but that hasn't translated at all to real hockey play. At #8 I pass on him, at #38 I might take him if Dineen is gone but at this stage his development has been stagnant and isn't because he physically can't do it.

Let's ignore his first season and pretend he didn't get exceptional status. That means last year as a 2nd year player he had 0.386ppg and in the prior season had a 0.590ppg. If he had gone from that 0.59 up to say .75 then sure I might be interested because I see an increase but he doesn't. Add to that his terrible plus minus which finally drops down to just a meh level and it all combines to raise a lot of red flags.

I wouldn't take him in the second round. Maybe I take a gamble with one of my 4289492349 3rd round picks.

rakish · June 15, 2016

JULIEN GAUTHIER

Ranked about 18

Q at 17, 20 to 30

20 FRANÇOIS BOUCHARD QMJHL 473
21 KAY SCHWERI QMJHL 457
22 TIMO MEIER QMJHL 454
23 ALEX BOURRET QMJHL 452
24 NIKOLAJ EHLERS QMJHL 446
25 JULIEN GAUTHIER QMJHL 443
26 MARC-OLIVIER ROY QMJHL 437
27 IVAN BARBASHYOV QMJHL 436
28 VLADIMIR TKACHYOV QMJHL 432
29 TOMAS JURCO QMJHL 431
30 GUILLAUME LATENDRESSE QMJHL 422

Q at 16, 10 to 20

10 CHARLES HUDON QMJHL 276
11 TOMAS JURCO QMJHL 275
12 PIERRE-LUC DUBOIS QMJHL 268
13 DERICK BRASSARD QMJHL 262
14 IVAN BARBASHYOV QMJHL 262
15 JULIEN GAUTHIER QMJHL 255
16 ANTHONY RICHARD QMJHL 245
17 JONATHAN DROUIN QMJHL 234
18 ANTHONY MANTHA QMJHL 227
19 ZACK PHILLIPS QMJHL 203

Gauthier is 76, 212

1 ANZE KOPITAR 1410 -SuperElit 794 -Slovenia-Slovenia U20 616 17.1
2 PATRIK LAINE 961 -Liiga 878 -Mestis 83 17.4
3 MIKKO RANTANEN 857 -Liiga 600 -Liiga-Jr. A SM-liiga 257 17.9
4 KYLE BEACH 809 -WHL 336 -WHL 473 17.7
5 JULIEN GAUTHIER 699 -QMJHL 443 -QMJHL 255 17.9
6 PAUL BITTNER 642 -WHL 320 -WHL 322 17.9
7 CHRISTOFER LÖFBERG 641 -SuperElit 510 -SuperElit 131 17.9
8 PAVEL ZACHA 620 -OHL 298 -Czech2-Czech 322 17.4
9 JOHAN RYNO 591 -Division 1 673 -Division 1 509 18.3
10 FILIP AHL 584 -SHL-SuperElit 709 -SuperElit 229 17.3

18th seems fine for a ranking.

rakish · June 15, 2016

Tyler Benson is ranked about 27th.

WHL forwards at 17, 50-60

50 SIMON STRANSKY WHL 370
51 CONNER BLEACKLEY WHL 368
52 RYAN RUSSELL WHL 367
53 DOMINIK UHER WHL 366
54 ROURKE CHARTIER WHL 365
55 SPENCER MACHACEK WHL 360
56 RYAN JOHANSEN WHL 359
57 BRAD ROSS WHL 354
58 OLIVER BJORKSTRAND WHL 349
59 TYLER BENSON WHL 345
60 JORDAN KNACKSTEDT WHL 336

WHL forwards at 16, 10-20

10 EVANDER KANE WHL 329
11 RYAN NUGENT-HOPKINS WHL 326
12 CURTIS HAMILTON WHL 325
13 PAUL BITTNER WHL 322
14 MATHEW BARZAL WHL 318
15 BRETT CONNOLLY WHL 312
16 TYLER BENSON WHL 307
17 MICHAL REPIK WHL 291
18 JORDAN EBERLE WHL 290
19 JORDAN WEAL WHL 289
20 TYLER ENNIS WHL 277

Benson is 71,196, 20-30

20 TOMAS KANA 680 -Czech 484 -Czech U20 196 17.8
21 DAN RYDER 680 -OHL 425 -OHL 255 17.7
22 NICO SACCHETTI 676 -USHS 376 -USHS 299 17.1
23 PONTUS ÅBERG 674 -SHL 455 -SuperElit 219 18.0
24 ALEXANDER KHOKHLACHEV 673 -OHL 385 -MHL 288 17.0
25 LARS ELLER 664 -SuperElit 553 -SuperElit 111 17.4
26 JERRY D'AMIGO 663 -NAHL-USDP 1059 -NAHL-USDP 134 17.6
27 TYLER BENSON 652 -WHL 345 -WHL 307 17.5
28 JOHN MCFARLAND 645 -OHL 279 -OHL 366 17.5
29 PERTTU LINDGREN 642 -Jr. A SM-liiga 356 -Jr. B SM-sarja 286 17.1
30 IGOR SHVYRYOV 641 -MHL 257 -MHL-Russia U17 384 17.2

Ranking Benson 27th is fine.

rakish · June 16, 2016

In my raw list, I'm at about 23rd. The raw list
needs some work since the I need to compare each player
to his size, and make sure the league variable is
realistic. Also defensemen are a bit undervalued.

So far, I only have a couple differences
between my list and scounting's consensus, this is
because, for the first 20 or so picks, they do a good job.

Cameron Morrison is only ranked by CSS NA, at 46.
I saw Button's list for the first time, he has
Morrison at 47, if I remember right.
Note that Morrison is very young with optimal size.

For this list, Rau played in the USHL prior to its
becoming a league players were drafted from, so my
brain generally removes him from any USHL list.
Marody is small and undervalued, Liger favorite
Cammarata is small. I would have over-drafted Tropp.

1 KYLE CONNOR USHL 791
2 CLAYTON KELLER USHL 737
3 CHAD RAU USHL 654
4 JADEN SCHWARTZ USHL 633
5 COREY TROPP USHL 589
6 COOPER MARODY USHL 541
7 TAYLOR CAMMARATA USHL 529
8 ZEMGUS GIRGENSONS USHL 524
9 CAMERON MORRISON USHL 513
10 SONNY MILANO USHL 509

OJHL at 16: Not a lot of help for context, but with Caggiula and
Brown where they are, I think I could double these numbers
and be OK. Guptill was part of the midseason trade with Ottawa,
and seems to be an Amerk.

1 ALEXANDER GUPTILL OJHL 150
2 CAMERON MORRISON OJHL 125
3 PHILIP LANE OJHL 108
4 JAKE EVANS OJHL 102
5 MATT BUCKLES OJHL 100
6 PHILLIP DI GIUSEPPE OJHL 88
7 DRAKE CAGGIULA OJHL 74
8 ZACH HYMAN OJHL 63
9 CONNOR BROWN OJHL 52
10 DYLAN SIKURA OJHL 43
11 BRETT SENEY OJHL 12

While we are here, we'll look at OJHL at 17. The name that
jumps out to me is Walman, drafted by the blues, who had an
excellent 18th year.

1 BRENNAN SERVILLE OJHL 172
2 MICHAEL PRAPAVESSIS OJHL 146
3 JAKE WALMAN OJHL 94
4 JAMES DE HAAS OJHL 51

Morrison is 74, 207, 20th to 30th. If you fix the OJHL problem,
adding 125, his 750 would be fairly high in a size you are looking for.

20 HENRIK BJÖRKLUND 699 -Division 1 442 -Division 1-J18 Allsvenskan-J18 Elit 257 18.0
21 RYAN STOA 684 -USDP-NAHL 609 -NAHL-USDP 380 17.4
22 RILEY SHEAHAN 657 -NCAA 379 -GOJHL 278 17.8
23 BOONE JENNER 656 -OHL 374 -OHL 282 17.3
24 BRENDAN GAUNCE 644 -OHL 464 -OHL 180 17.5
25 CHRISTOFER LÖFBERG 641 -SuperElit 510 -SuperElit 131 17.9
26 CAMERON MORRISON 638 -USHL 513 -OJHL 125 17.1
27 TIMO MEIER 624 -QMJHL 454 -QMJHL 170 17.9
28 PAVEL ZACHA 620 -OHL 298 -Czech2-Czech 322 17.4
29 GREG NEMISZ 619 -OHL 440 -OHL 179 17.3
30 JAMES SHEPPARD 601 -QMJHL 407 -QMJHL 194 17.4

Absolutely on my board.

LGR4GM · June 16, 2016

Cameron Morrison article for those who want more info:

Morrison displays excellent touch and a lethal touch around the net. A good skater, however not elite, Morrison displays heavy feet which often lead to questions about his skating. With that being said, Morrison displays a fluid stride and adequate mobility along with impressive straight line speed, he simply lacks the explosiveness some would like to see. In the mold of a modern day power forward, Morrison displays a willingness to engage physical, impressive compete and will battle for loose pucks.

http://www.litterboxcats.com/2016/5/7/11568226/florida-panthers-2016-nhl-draft-profile-cameron-morrison

rakish · June 17, 2016

I'm using http://www.draftsite.com/nhl/mock-draft/2016/to get an idea where players get drafted.

The group consensus thinks Bernhardt goes about 135th.

David Bernhardt is ranked 39th in the CSS EU.

SuperElit at 17:

1 JONAS JUNLAND SuperElit 684
2 CALLE ANDERSSON SuperElit 546
3 WILLIAM PETHRUS SuperElit 508
4 LUDWIG BYSTRÖM SuperElit 464
5 DAVID BERNHARDT SuperElit 437
6 DENNIS PERSSON SuperElit 434
7 ALEXANDER URBOM SuperElit 408
8 MATTIAS BÄCKMAN SuperElit 400
9 ROBERT HÄGG SuperElit 382
10 MARCUS ERSSON SuperElit 381

SuperElit at 16

1 OLIVER KYLINGTON SuperElit 315
2 DAVID RUNDBLAD SuperElit 311
3 MARCUS PETTERSSON SuperElit 299
4 RASMUS BENGTSSON SuperElit 279
5 DAVID BERNHARDT SuperElit 225
6 TIM ERIXON SuperElit 191
7 LINUS ARNESSON SuperElit 187
8 MIKAEL WIKSTRAND SuperElit 187
9 JULIUS BERGMAN SuperElit 186
10 PHILIP LARSEN SuperElit 176

75, 203

15 RYAN PILON 757 -WHL 527 -WHL-WHL 230 17.9
16 COLBY COHEN 749 -USHL 660 -NAHL-USDP-USDP 89 17.4
17 NICOLAS MELOCHE 743 -QMJHL 421 -QMJHL 322 17.2
18 JACOB TROUBA 725 -USDP-USHL 667 -USDP-USHL 392 17.6
19 MICHAEL STONE 683 -WHL 429 -WHL 253 17.3
20 KARL ALZNER 677 -WHL 468 -WHL 209 18.0
21 DAVID BERNHARDT 662 -SuperElit 437 -SuperElit 225 17.8
22 HAYDN FLEURY 606 -WHL 429 -WHL 177 17.2
23 BRIAN DUMOULIN 594 -EJHL 243 -USHS 351 17.0
24 VIKTOR DOVGAN NaN 0 -Russia3 0 0.0
25 CALLE ANDERSSON 567 -SuperElit 546 -SuperElit-J18 Allsvenskan 22 17.3
26 RASMUS RISTOLAINEN 562 -Liiga 343 -Liiga 220 17.9

You may be asking yourself why Risto is on this list. My theory on defensemen is that

you have to look, not only how they score, but where they play, Risto played with

adults at 16, whereas Bernhardt played with U20's at 17. For me this makes Euros

a bit easy to value, since an OHL player has no where to go if he's really good.

If I end up with a few 3rd round picks, I hope I get Bernhardt with one of them.

LGR4GM · June 17, 2016

Holy crapbaskets, if we could draft him in the 3rd it would be great. Ideal size, heading to the SHL next year, seems to be able to score. I would be happy getting him in the 3rd.

rakish · June 17, 2016

Through my lens, William Pethrus, though a bit smaller,

is very similar to Bernhardt, except it doesn't look like Pethrus

will be drafted.

WILLIAM PETHRUS is unranked.

SuperEllit at 17

1 JONAS JUNLAND SuperElit 684
2 CALLE ANDERSSON SuperElit 546
3 WILLIAM PETHRUS SuperElit 508
4 LUDWIG BYSTRÖM SuperElit 464
5 DAVID BERNHARDT SuperElit 437
6 DENNIS PERSSON SuperElit 434
7 ALEXANDER URBOM SuperElit 408
8 MATTIAS BÄCKMAN SuperElit 400
9 ROBERT HÄGG SuperElit 382
10 MARCUS ERSSON SuperElit 381

SuperElit at 16

1 OLIVER KYLINGTON SuperElit 315
2 DAVID RUNDBLAD SuperElit 311
3 MARCUS PETTERSSON SuperElit 299
4 RASMUS BENGTSSON SuperElit 279
5 DAVID BERNHARDT SuperElit 225
6 TIM ERIXON SuperElit 191
7 LINUS ARNESSON SuperElit 187
8 MIKAEL WIKSTRAND SuperElit 187
9 JULIUS BERGMAN SuperElit 186
10 PHILIP LARSEN SuperElit 176
11 ALEXANDER URBOM SuperElit 175
12 ALEXANDER ANDERSSON SuperElit 166
13 LUDWIG BYSTRÖM SuperElit 152
14 ROBERT HÄGG SuperElit 146
15 WILLIAM PETHRUS SuperElit 144
16 JONAS JUNLAND SuperElit 142
17 VIKTOR LÖÖV SuperElit 140
18 MATTIAS BÄCKMAN SuperElit 133
19 JACOB MOVERARE SuperElit 122
20 JONAS AHNELÖV SuperElit 118

Allsvenskan at 16

1 RASMUS ANDERSSON Allsvenskan 263
2 WILLIAM PETHRUS Allsvenskan 65
3 MIKAEL WIKSTRAND Allsvenskan 32
4 JULIUS BERGMAN Allsvenskan 0

74 183

1 JORDAN SCHMALTZ 948 -USHL 506 -USHL 442 17.9
2 OLLI JUOLEVI 874 -OHL 592 -Jr. A SM-liiga 281 17.4
3 NATHAN BEAULIEU 850 -QMJHL 434 -QMJHL 416 17.8
4 ERIC ROY 802 -WHL 338 -WHL 464 17.9
5 SHEA THEODORE 785 -WHL 491 -WHL 294 17.1
6 STEFAN ELLIOTT 783 -WHL 460 -WHL 322 17.6
7 MICHAEL DOWNING 753 -USHL 464 -USHL 289 17.3
8 DUNCAN SIEMENS 730 -WHL 468 -WHL 261 17.0
9 JACOB TROUBA 725 -USDP-USHL 667 -USDP-USHL 392 17.6
10 DAVID RUNDBLAD 711 -SHL 400 -SuperElit 311 17.9
11 NOAH JUULSEN 699 -WHL 606 -WHL 93 17.5
12 DAMON SEVERSON 669 -WHL 471 -WHL 198 17.1
13 BRANDON GORMLEY 641 -QMJHL 396 -QMJHL 244 17.6
14 JOHN MOORE 627 -USHL 431 -USHL 196 17.8
15 BOBBY SANGUINETTI 626 -OHL 449 -OHL 177 17.5
16 WILLIAM PETHRUS 612 -SuperElit 508 -Allsvenskan-SuperElit 104 18.0
17 PATRICK WIERCIOCH 593 -USHL 438 -BCHL 155 17.0
18 DANTE FABBRO 573 -BCHL 408 -BCHL 165 17.2
19 MATT MACKENZIE 563 -WHL 420 -WHL 142 17.9
20 DILLON FOURNIER 531 -QMJHL 386 -QMJHL 145 17.3

Hoping to get him in round 6 or 7.

rakish · June 18, 2016

Brayden Burke is rated 63rd NA by CSS. Draftsite.com has him at
132.

He had really great 18th year after a 17th year when he wasn't drafted,
but could have been. All new comparables, maybe even a couple of new charts,
because this is our first overager, and he has way too many assists.

First off, you gotta ask yourself, why was this team pretty good.
The Lethbridge Hurricane scored 86 more goals than they gave up.
Why? A 16 year old goaltender? Georgio Estephan? I think not.

First I want to talk about overagers. You are not drafting enough of
them. 2006 is more or less representative, the labeled circles are NHL
players. The size of the circle is NHL games played. Note that after
pick 90 or so, you are much better off choosing an overager. 17-year-olds,
after pick 90, were chosen about 3 times as often as overagers, but
the overagers ended up being better players.

WHL at 18, remember the smalls are valued somewhat high:

1 BRAYDEN SCHENN WHL 1377
2 LEON DRAISAITL WHL 1193
3 PETER MUELLER WHL 1101
4 SVEN BÄRTSCHI WHL 1037
5 NIC PETAN WHL 1033
6 RYAN JOHANSEN WHL 1031
7 GILBERT BRULÉ WHL 1003
8 BRAYDEN BURKE WHL 989
9 MICHAEL ST. CROIX WHL 945
10 DRAYSON BOWMAN WHL 895

WHL at 17:
105 COLTON SISSONS WHL 261
106 NICK DRAZENOVIC WHL 261
107 BYRON FROESE WHL 253
108 BLAIR JONES WHL 253
109 GLENN GAWDIN WHL 252
110 COLTON SCEVIOUR WHL 251
111 BRAYDEN BURKE WHL 251
112 MICHAEL GRABNER WHL 251
113 CRAIG CUNNINGHAM WHL 248
114 KEEGAN IVERSON WHL 248
115 DANA TYRELL WHL 248

Burke is 70, 163. I think this next list needs some context for a couple
reasons. For one, I think the 50% discount for being an overager is too
much. Secondly, my new theory is that your 18th year means more than
your 17th year. Last year's theory that you are looking for improvement
makes sense as the overagers are vastly underrated, but it doesn't
work as often players have a really good 17th year. This new theory fits into history,
cherry picking anyway, as players like Jamie Benn and Milan Lucic became scorers at 18.

Comparable size players at 18:

1 PATRICK KANE NHL 2037
2 WILLIAM NYLANDER SHL 1286
3 SEBASTIAN AHO Liiga 1156
4 MITCHELL MARNER OHL 1091
5 BRAYDEN BURKE WHL 989
6 JOEY HISHON OHL 988
7 WILLIAM NYLANDER AHL 935
8 MATHEW BARZAL WHL 868
9 ANTHONY RICHARD QMJHL 867
10 TEUVO TERÄVÄINEN Liiga 814

The next list is 2015 18 year old forwards, remember the rule of thumb, that
1000 rated players are borderline NHL players

1 CONNOR MCDAVID NHL 3413
2 JACK EICHEL NHL 1440
3 DYLAN STROME OHL 1391
4 KYLE CONNOR NCAA 1303
5 BROCK BOESER NCAA 1179
6 SEBASTIAN AHO Liiga 1156
7 MIKKO RANTANEN AHL 1134
8 TRAVIS KONECNY OHL 1132
9 MITCHELL MARNER OHL 1091
10 BRAYDEN BURKE WHL 989

You may think I need to discount assists, which I think is a reasonable
point of view. These are the 18 year old forwards with more than 2.5 assists per
goal. Burke had just over 3 assists per goal.

1 JONATHAN DROUIN QMJHL 1740
2 SAM GAGNER NHL 1505
3 JORI LEHTERÄ Jr. A SM-liiga 1148
4 PETER MUELLER WHL 1101
5 MIKAEL GRANLUND Liiga 997
6 BRAYDEN BURKE WHL 989
7 JOSHUA HO-SANG OHL 866
8 JOSH BAILEY NHL 824
9 DERICK BRASSARD QMJHL 786
10 AARON PALUSHAJ NCAA 780

The same list at 17, not the most pleasing

1 KEVIN FIALA SHL 943
2 MATTHEW TKACHUK OHL 869
3 JAKUB VORACEK QMJHL 840
4 TOM FRITSCHE NCAA 687
5 SHANE PRINCE OHL 659
6 NICHOLAS MERKLEY WHL 658
7 MATHEW BARZAL WHL 616
8 JANSEN HARKINS WHL 596
9 ARTEMI PANARIN KHL 547
10 MITCH WAHL WHL 522

So Braden Burke can hopefully be had with a third.

rakish · June 18, 2016

I'm going to try to finish this tonight, I may come back and edit the

draft board a little, as I haven't looked at all 600 propects eliteprospects

has on their list.

Logan Brown is rated about 9th.

OHL at 17: 45-55

45 STEVE DOWNIE OHL 475
46 DANTE SALITURO OHL 474
47 STEFAN LEGEIN OHL 471
48 ZACK TORQUATO OHL 467
49 JOEY HISHON OHL 464
50 BRENDAN GAUNCE OHL 464
51 LOGAN BROWN OHL 458
52 BRENDAN PERLINI OHL 454
53 GREG MCKEGG OHL 453
54 CHRIS TERRY OHL 449
55 JORDAN STAAL OHL 447

OHL at 16: 65-75

65 RYAN STROME OHL 180
66 DEVANTE SMITH-PELLY OHL 180
67 BO HORVAT OHL 179
68 GREG NEMISZ OHL 179
69 LOGAN BROWN OHL 178
70 BLAKE SPEERS OHL 168
71 NATHAN MOON OHL 166
72 RYAN STROME OHL 165
73 BRETT MACLEAN OHL 164
74 TAYLOR RADDYSH OHL 162
75 TIM GETTINGER OHL 161

Brown is 78, 220, there aren't a lot of forwards drafted who are
this big, though he is the best of this bunch.

1 LOGAN BROWN 636 -OHL 458 -OHL 178 17.5
2 JOHAN RYNO 591 -Division 1 673 -Division 1 509 18.3
3 JORDAN GREENWAY 438 -USDP-USHL 467 -USDP-USHL 205 17.6
4 RADOVAN BONDRA 214 -Slovakia-Slovakia2 336 -Slovakia2 46 17.6
5 GUSTAV OLHAVER 150 -SuperElit-J18 Elit 176 -J18 Allsvenskan-J18 Elit 62 17.2
6 JUSTIN AUGER 99 -OHL 136 -OHL 62 18.3
7 JOE FINLEY 69 -USHL 69 0 17.2
8 MATT USTASKI 35 -BCHL 102 -BCHL 37 19.3

For me, 18th?, 20th? Out of the question at 8 or 9,
will be gone at 38 or 39.

GERMAN RUBTSOV is ranked about 15th.

MHL at 17

1 MAXIM KITSYN MHL 895
2 NIKOLAI PROKHORKIN MHL 655
3 NIKITA GUSEV MHL 627
4 BOGDAN YAKIMOV MHL 562
5 VLADIMIR TKACHYOV MHL 547
6 NIKITA KUCHEROV MHL 529
7 DENIS GURYANOV MHL 517
8 GERMAN RUBTSOV MHL 496
9 YEVGENI MITYAKIN MHL 477
10 IVAN KOSORENKOV MHL 393
11 PAVEL KRASKOVSKY MHL 384
12 ROMAN KRIKUNENKO MHL 372
13 DENIS ALEXEYEV MHL 370
14 PAVEL BUCHNEVICH MHL 368
15 ALEXANDER KADEYKIN MHL 365

MHL at 16

1 PAVEL BUCHNEVICH MHL 623
2 NIKITA KUCHEROV MHL 385
3 YEVGENI SVECHNIKOV MHL 364
4 VITALI ABRAMOV MHL 325
5 YAKOV TRENIN MHL 321
6 ALEXANDER KHOKHLACHEV MHL 288
7 YEVGENI MITYAKIN MHL 261
8 DENIS ALEXEYEV MHL 257
9 VLADIMIR TKACHYOV MHL 255
10 PAVEL KARNAUKHOV MHL 254
11 MIKHAIL GRIGORENKO MHL 253
12 NIKOLAI PROKHORKIN MHL 235
13 KIRILL KAPRIZOV MHL 209
14 BOGDAN YAKIMOV MHL 183
15 DMITRI SOKOLOV MHL 182
16 VLADISLAV KAMENEV MHL 173
17 DENIS GURYANOV MHL 167
18 ALEXANDER KADEYKIN MHL 145
19 GERMAN RUBTSOV MHL 125
20 IGOR SHVYRYOV MHL 116

73 174

35 IVAN BARBASHYOV 698 -QMJHL 436 -QMJHL 262 17.8
36 MARC-OLIVIER ROY 636 -QMJHL 437 -QMJHL 199 17.9
37 NIKITA SCHERBAK 632 -WHL 554 -MHL 77 17.7
38 KYLE TURRIS 622 -BCHL 481 -BCHL 142 17.1
39 GERMAN RUBTSOV 622 -MHL 496 -MHL 125 17.2
40 JARED MCCANN 616 -OHL 433 -OHL 183 17.3
41 JAKE DEBRUSK 616 -WHL 486 -WHL 130 17.9
42 NATHAN NOEL 613 -QMJHL 413 -QMJHL 199 17.2
43 SIMON STRANSKY 601 -WHL 370 -WHL 232 17.7
44 TIM BOZON 596 -WHL 462 -Elite Jr. A 134 17.5
45 SPENCER MACHACEK 591 -WHL 360 -WHL 231 17.9

DENIS ALEXEYEV is rated 65th by EU Central Scouting,
unranked at draftsite.com

MHL at 17

1 MAXIM KITSYN MHL 895
2 NIKOLAI PROKHORKIN MHL 655
3 NIKITA GUSEV MHL 627
4 BOGDAN YAKIMOV MHL 562
5 VLADIMIR TKACHYOV MHL 547
6 NIKITA KUCHEROV MHL 529
7 DENIS GURYANOV MHL 517
8 GERMAN RUBTSOV MHL 496
9 YEVGENI MITYAKIN MHL 477
10 IVAN KOSORENKOV MHL 393
11 PAVEL KRASKOVSKY MHL 384
12 ROMAN KRIKUNENKO MHL 372
13 DENIS ALEXEYEV MHL 370
14 PAVEL BUCHNEVICH MHL 368
15 ALEXANDER KADEYKIN MHL 365

1 PAVEL BUCHNEVICH MHL 623
2 NIKITA KUCHEROV MHL 385
3 YEVGENI SVECHNIKOV MHL 364
4 VITALI ABRAMOV MHL 325
5 YAKOV TRENIN MHL 321
6 ALEXANDER KHOKHLACHEV MHL 288
7 YEVGENI MITYAKIN MHL 261
8 DENIS ALEXEYEV MHL 257
9 VLADIMIR TKACHYOV MHL 255
10 PAVEL KARNAUKHOV MHL 254
11 MIKHAIL GRIGORENKO MHL 253
12 NIKOLAI PROKHORKIN MHL 235
13 KIRILL KAPRIZOV MHL 209
14 BOGDAN YAKIMOV MHL 183
15 DMITRI SOKOLOV MHL 182
16 VLADISLAV KAMENEV MHL 173
17 DENIS GURYANOV MHL 167
18 ALEXANDER KADEYKIN MHL 145
19 GERMAN RUBTSOV MHL 125
20 IGOR SHVYRYOV MHL 116

72 192

50 LARS ELLER 664 -SuperElit 553 -SuperElit 111 17.4
51 JERRY D'AMIGO 663 -NAHL-USDP 1059 -NAHL-USDP 134 17.6
52 TYLER BENSON 652 -WHL 345 -WHL 307 17.5
53 JOHN MCFARLAND 645 -OHL 279 -OHL 366 17.5
54 PERTTU LINDGREN 642 -Jr. A SM-liiga 356 -Jr. B SM-sarja 286 17.1
55 IGOR SHVYRYOV 641 -MHL 257 -MHL-Russia U17 384 17.2
56 DENIS ALEXEYEV 626 -MHL 370 -MHL 257 18.0
57 FILIP CHLAPÍK 615 -QMJHL 361 -Czech U20 254 17.3
58 DMITRIJ JASKIN 613 -Czech 364 -Czech U20-Czech U18 249 17.5
59 JUSTIN ABDELKADER 607 -USHL 322 -USHS 286 17.6
60 RICKARD RAKELL 604 -OHL 328 -J18 Allsvenskan-J18 Elit 276 17.4

Alexeyev is unranked? He's heavy enough, I think I got a spare 7th around.

IGOR SHVYRYOV ranked 23 CSS EU, unranked at
draftsite.com

MHL at 17

20 ALEXANDER DERGACHYOV MHL 291
21 ANTON SLEPYSHEV MHL 288
22 YEGOR KORSHKOV MHL 284
23 ARTUR KAYUMOV MHL 270
24 IGOR SHVYRYOV MHL 257
25 YEGOR BABENKO MHL 254
26 VLADISLAV KAMENEV MHL 246
27 IVAN KOSORENKOV MHL 214
28 MIKHAIL MESHCHERYAKOV MHL 211
29 NIKITA BASHKIROV MHL 196
30 ARTYOM IVANYUZHENKOV MHL 189

MHL at 16

15 DMITRI SOKOLOV MHL 182
16 VLADISLAV KAMENEV MHL 173
17 DENIS GURYANOV MHL 167
18 ALEXANDER KADEYKIN MHL 145
19 GERMAN RUBTSOV MHL 125
20 IGOR SHVYRYOV MHL 116
21 ALEXANDER DERGACHYOV MHL 110
22 ARTYOM IVANYUZHENKOV MHL 110
23 ROMAN KRIKUNENKO MHL 108
24 ARTUR KAYUMOV MHL 106
25 DMITRI BUINITSKY MHL 81

Russia U17 at 16

1 IGOR SHVYRYOV Russia U17 294
2 MAXIM SHALUNOV Russia U17 208
3 VITALI ABRAMOV Russia U17 161
4 NIKITA O. POPUGAYEV Russia U17 157
5 DENIS ALEXEYEV Russia U17 154
6 ROMAN KRIKUNENKO Russia U17 138
7 YEGOR KORSHKOV Russia U17 135
8 ANTON ZLOBIN Russia U17 132
9 YEGOR BABENKO Russia U17 112
10 ANDREI ALTYBARMAKYAN Russia U17 109

72 192

50 LARS ELLER 664 -SuperElit 553 -SuperElit 111 17.4
51 JERRY D'AMIGO 663 -NAHL-USDP 1059 -NAHL-USDP 134 17.6
52 TYLER BENSON 652 -WHL 345 -WHL 307 17.5
53 JOHN MCFARLAND 645 -OHL 279 -OHL 366 17.5
54 PERTTU LINDGREN 642 -Jr. A SM-liiga 356 -Jr. B SM-sarja 286 17.1
55 IGOR SHVYRYOV 641 -MHL 257 -MHL-Russia U17 384 17.2
56 DENIS ALEXEYEV 626 -MHL 370 -MHL 257 18.0
57 FILIP CHLAPÍK 615 -QMJHL 361 -Czech U20 254 17.3
58 DMITRIJ JASKIN 613 -Czech 364 -Czech U20-Czech U18 249 17.5
59 JUSTIN ABDELKADER 607 -USHL 322 -USHS 286 17.6
60 RICKARD RAKELL 604 -OHL 328 -J18 Allsvenskan-J18 Elit 276 17.4

Like Alexeyev, I can justify a 7th on him.

Rasmus Asplund is ranked about 22.
Draftsite.com has him at 32

SHL at 17

1 KEVIN FIALA SHL 943
2 ELIAS LINDHOLM SHL 891
3 NICKLAS BÄCKSTRÖM SHL 721
4 CARL GRUNDSTRÖM SHL 539
5 MIKA ZIBANEJAD SHL 519
6 JACOB JOSEFSON SHL 480
7 WILLIAM NYLANDER SHL 473
8 MAGNUS PÄÄJÄRVI SHL 459
9 PONTUS ÅBERG SHL 455
10 MATHIAS FROM SHL 413
11 CALLE JÄRNKROK SHL 409
12 ADRIAN KEMPE SHL 403
13 RASMUS ASPLUND SHL 387
14 JAKOB SILFVERBERG SHL 375
15 MATTIAS TEDENBY SHL 352

SHL at 16

1 CARL GRUNDSTRÖM SHL 266
2 ANTON LANDER SHL 141
3 RASMUS ASPLUND SHL 133
4 MAGNUS PÄÄJÄRVI SHL 116
5 NICKLAS BÄCKSTRÖM SHL 0
6 ELIAS LINDHOLM SHL 0
7 FREDRIK FORSBERG SHL 0

SuperElit at 16

1 WILLIAM NYLANDER SuperElit 749
2 FILIP FORSBERG SuperElit 520
3 CARL GRUNDSTRÖM SuperElit 459
4 MIKAEL BACKLUND SuperElit 446
5 FREDRIK FORSBERG SuperElit 428
6 VICTOR RASK SuperElit 378
7 JONATHAN DAHLÉN SuperElit 375
8 JESPER BRATT SuperElit 344
9 JAKUB VRÁNA SuperElit 342
10 LUCAS WALLMARK SuperElit 331
11 NICKLAS BÄCKSTRÖM SuperElit 327
12 RASMUS ASPLUND SuperElit 326
13 GUSTAV POSSLER SuperElit 313
14 ELIAS LINDHOLM SuperElit 292
15 MIKKEL BØDKER SuperElit 288

70, 176

40 MAGNUS PÄÄJÄRVI 655 -SHL 459 -SHL-SuperElit 196 17.4
41 CHASE DE LEO 654 -WHL 385 -WHL 270 17.9
42 CHARLES HUDON 630 -QMJHL 354 -QMJHL 276 17.2
43 DAVID KVETON 630 -Czech 240 -Czech U20 390 17.7
44 RASMUS ASPLUND 617 -SHL 387 -SHL-SuperElit 230 17.8
45 JUSTIN SHUGG 613 -OHL 429 -OHL 185 17.7
46 MICHAEL ST. CROIX 613 -WHL 429 -WHL 184 17.4
47 PHIL VARONE 610 -OHL 326 -OHL-OHL 284 17.8
48 DILLON DUBÉ 604 -WHL 380 -WHL 224 17.2
49 BROOKS MACEK 600 -WHL 464 -WHL 137 17.3
50 KIRILL KAPRIZOV 576 -KHL 368 -MHL 209 17.4

SIMON STRANSKY ranked 48 CSS NA.
draftsite.com has him at 60.

WHL at 17

45 NINO NIEDERREITER WHL 375
46 LINDEN VEY WHL 375
47 EMERSON ETEM WHL 375
48 BRENDAN GALLAGHER WHL 374
49 RILEY HOLZAPFEL WHL 370
50 SIMON STRANSKY WHL 370
51 CONNER BLEACKLEY WHL 368
52 RYAN RUSSELL WHL 367
53 DOMINIK UHER WHL 366
54 ROURKE CHARTIER WHL 365
55 DANTE HANNOUN WHL 362

WHL at 16

25 LEON DRAISAITL WHL 259
26 BRAYDEN POINT WHL 257
27 COLTON SISSONS WHL 251
28 RYAN GROPP WHL 239
29 SIMON STRANSKY WHL 232
30 TOMAS VINCOUR WHL 232
31 SPENCER MACHACEK WHL 231
32 BRANDON SUTTER WHL 227
33 JAYCE HAWRYLUK WHL 225
34 DILLON DUBÉ WHL 224
35 MITCH WAHL WHL 222

72 170

40 NIKITA SCHERBAK 632 -WHL 554 -MHL 77 17.7
41 DAVID KVETON 630 -Czech 240 -Czech U20 390 17.7
42 KYLE TURRIS 622 -BCHL 481 -BCHL 142 17.1
43 GERMAN RUBTSOV 622 -MHL 496 -MHL 125 17.2
44 RASMUS ASPLUND 617 -SHL 387 -SHL-SuperElit 230 17.8
45 JARED MCCANN 616 -OHL 433 -OHL 183 17.3
46 JAKE DEBRUSK 616 -WHL 486 -WHL 130 17.9
47 MICHAEL ST. CROIX 613 -WHL 429 -WHL 184 17.4
48 NATHAN NOEL 613 -QMJHL 413 -QMJHL 199 17.2
49 SIMON STRANSKY 601 -WHL 370 -WHL 232 17.7
50 TIM BOZON 596 -WHL 462 -Elite Jr. A 134 17.5

rakish · June 18, 2016

This is my updated draft board, I added where draftsite.com had them ranked. I added a couple at the bottom in case I run out of players, but I think 22 will be plenty.

Matthews       1
Puljujarvi       4
Tkuchuk           5
Keller           16
Chychrun       6
Bean           13
Sergachyov       10
Gundstrom       29
Morrison       42
Jonathan Dahlén       181
Burke           132
Bernhardt       136
Lucas Johansen       53
Girard           43
Alexeyev       154
Moverare       52
Pethrus           unranked
Bratt           124
Shvyryov       unranked
OTTO KOIVULA        unranked
HENRIK BORGSTRÖM   116
KRISTAPS ZILE       unranked

If you want to get in on rakii's draft competition, put together a draft list, we're
going to use the Sabre's picks this year. I only need about
30 because many of my players don't get drafted, but McKenzie
had 75 on his list and missed a couple rounds near the end
of last years draft. So how many you need on your list depends.

Tim Murray will play, I have Pronman's rankings, he did 100 this year, I expect McKenzie and

The Hockey News have enough of a ranking to do an entire draft, but I haven't looked yet.

Edited June 23, 2016 by rakish

North Buffalo · June 18, 2016

Matthews

Puljujarvi

Tkuchuk

Keller

Chychrun

Bean

Sergachyov

Gundstrom

Morrison

Burke

Girard

Bernhardt

Alexeyev

Shvyryov

Moverare

Pethrus

Bratt

I'll have to add twenty or so to this list, but this is the

basically what it will look like. If you want to get in on

rakii's draft competition, put together a draft list, we're

going to use the Sabre's picks this year. I only need about

30 because many of my players don't get drafted, but McKenzie

had 75 on his list and missed a couple rounds near the end

of last years draft. So how many you need on your list depends.

What abt Laine?? old man disease setting in ?

rakish · June 18, 2016

Players that tall worry me. It worries me that the scouting reports say he's slow. It worries me that he didn't score at all at age 16.

If Murray moves to 2, I'll be very happy with Puljujarvi, I could put him in 8th, but will he get that far?

LGR4GM · June 18, 2016

Players that tall worry me. It worries me that the scouting reports say he's slow. It worries me that he didn't score at all at age 16.

If Murray moves to 2, I'll be very happy with Puljujarvi, I could put him in 8th, but will he get that far?

I was actually thinking about Laine the other day. Because up to this point he's played on the International Ice surface, I wonder if he's been able to more or less gain the zone and then rely on his strength and his positioning as opposed to in the tight spaces of NHL where you have to rely on your skating the score. I think that we should draft Jesse instead if we moved up because he has the speed and size to keep up with Jack eichel.

rakish · June 18, 2016

For me the comparison is Grigo.

I'm sure everyone has players they're not going to take. I'm fairly certain if you saw the Sabre's board, the kid on the Otters...now I gotta go look, DeBrincat, wouldn't be there because he doesn't fit into their belief system.

rakish · July 2, 2016

The 2016 draft competition is set. I should have put in a few more players,

but I had run out of time, so I'm two picks short. McKenzie, who only posts

80 picks, is five short. This is the second year for Pronman

in this event, and I'm always shocked by how small his team is in height.

I wasn't happy with how the draft went for me, I felt I was 8th behind a

team that wanted the same player as me, so I missed out on Keller, but

I think I did OK none-the-less. We'll check back on this list next after the

World Juniors, then again next draft to see how people are doing.

The players in parenthesis are who they would have picked had another

contestant not selected them first, so if you are just looking at, say,

Button, independent of this competition, use the player in parenthesis.

Tim Murray has

#8    Buffalo Sabres    Alexander Nylander (RW/LW)
#33    Buffalo Sabres    Rasmus Asplund (C/LW)
#69    Buffalo Sabres    Cliff Pu (C/RW)
#86    Buffalo Sabres    Casey Fitzgerald (D)
#99    Buffalo Sabres    Brett Murray (LW)
#129    Buffalo Sabres    Philip Nyberg (D)
#130    Buffalo Sabres    Vojtech Budik (D)
#159    Buffalo Sabres    Brandon Hagel (LW)
#189    Buffalo Sabres    Austin Osmanski (D)
#190    Buffalo Sabres    Vasili Glotov (LW)

rakish

#8    Chychrun
#33    Gundstrom
#69    Burke
#86    Bernhardt
#99    Alexeyev
#129    Pethrus
#130    Shvyryov (Bratt)
#159    Zile (Shvyryov)
#189    (Zile)
#190

Button

#8    Brown
#33    Debrincat
#69    Bitten
#86    Phillips
#99    Mattson
#129    Aapeli Räsänen (Burke)
#130    David Quenneville (Rasanen)
#159    Stransky (Quennville)
#189    Fortier   (Stransky)
#190    Essiymont

The Hockey News

#8    Nylander
#33    Debrincat
#69    Pu
#86    Mete
#99    Tim Gettinger
#129    Luce
#130    Zach Sawchenko
#159    Jacob Neveu
#189    Otto Makinen
#190    Travis Barron

Pronman

#8    Nylander
#33    Debrincat
#69    Sokolov
#86    Polunin
#99    Mete
#129    Bratt
#130    Aho
#159    Stransky (Quenneville)
#189    Somppi
#190    Ronning   (Burke,Fortier)

McKenzie

#8    Nylander
#33    Hajek
#69    Bitten
#86    Kopacka
#99    Gettinger
#129
#130
#159
#189
#190

Edited July 2, 2016 by rakish

rakish · July 3, 2016

First I list everyone's 17th year raw score. It's not
perfect in that some players are counted twice (those
who played in two leagues, like USDP and USHL. Also
it's just a total, so Buffalo's 10 picks just beat
out Arizona's 4 picks, and goaltenders get zero.
I redid the total on the first 3, then I got bored.

Toronto 2600
Calgary Flames 2500
Philadelphia 2400
Chicago 2059
Carolina 1991
New Jersey 1879
Buffalo 1878
Arizona 1834
Tampa Bay 1829
Nashville 1796
Islanders 1791
Columbus 1720
St. Louis 1664
Montreal 1598
Edmonton 1493
Winnipeg 1463
Boston 1436
Florida 1375
Ottawa 1263
Washington 1259
Vancouver 1225
Anaheim 1212
Colorado 1163
Dallas 944
Minnesota 880
San Jose 826
Detroit 816
Rangers 766
LA Kings 717
Pittsburgh 431

I broke out the best eight teams.

My 2015 ranking - Player - League - My raw valuation - note if it's not the
2016 draft ranking. So for instance, Toronto took five overagers, two that
are compared to the 2015 draft, and three who are compared to the 2014 draft.

The first chart here is 2008, it's fairly representative in that each year looks
the same, only with different names. The x column is age drafted, the y column
is the pick. The areas you want to focus on is after pick, 60 or 80, you want
to take overagers, because while three times as many 17 year olds get picked
after 80, say, they end up with the same number of NHL players. Here, you will
notice that three good players were just barely 17 at the first draft,
went undrafted, then were drafted in later rounds just past age 18, since overagers are
discounted by the NHL. In this chart there is Nyquist, Martin, and Atkinson, but it
happens every year.

The second chart is 2016 by age.

Toronto
1 AUSTON MATTHEWS NLA 1000 (Matthews not rated correctly because of league)
13 CARL GRUNDSTRÖM SHL 539
16 ADAM BROOKS WHL 890 (Among 2014 draft age group)
47 JACK WALKER WHL 545 (2014)
51 VLADIMIR BOBYLYOV WHL 469 (2015)
59 NIKOLAI CHEBYKIN MHL 415 (2015)
59 YEGOR KORSHKOV KHL 452 (2014)

32 JAMES GREENWAY USDP/USHL 190
41 NICOLAS MATTINEN OHL 143
64 KEATON MIDDLETON OHL 41

I'm very surprised Calgary came in second.

Calgary
3 MATTHEW TKACHUK OHL 869
23 MATTHEW PHILLIPS WHL 426
25 DILLON DUBÉ WHL 401
41 LINUS LINDSTRÖM SuperElit 277
71 MITCHELL MATTSON USHS 184
87 EETU TUULOLA Jr. A SM-liiga 101
100 MITCHELL MATTSON USHL 20

13 ADAM FOX USDP/USHL 255

Philadelphia has become one of the better
drafting teams. The third chart is my team point/games (the blue regression
line and dots) and each season's drafting raw total.

Philadelphia
17 GERMAN RUBTSOV MHL 496
31 PASCAL LABERGE QMJHL 340
40 WADE ALLISON USHL 285
45 CARSEN TWARYNSKI WHL 248
78 CONNOR BUNNAMAN OHL 160
85 ANTHONY SALINITRI OHL 126

8 DAVID BERNHARDT SuperElit 437
30 LINUS HÖGBERG SuperElit/J18 Elit 200

Chicago was very unexpected, since they have been drafting poorly for
years.

Chicago
12 ALEXANDER DEBRINCAT OHL 541
38 MATHIAS FROM SHL/SuperElit 290
43 ARTUR KAYUMOV MHL 270
94 NATHAN NOEL QMJHL 252 (2015)

16 LUCAS CARLSSON SHL 371 (2015)
32 JAKE RYCZEK USHL 190
36 CHAD KRYS USHL/USDP 166
54 BLAKE HILLMAN NCAA 179 (2014)

Carolina now has a couple years of good drafting.

Carolina
22 JULIEN GAUTHIER QMJHL 443
36 JANNE KUOKKANEN Jr. A SM-liiga 298
57 MATT FILIPE USHL 210
60 HUDSON ELYNUIK WHL 207
66 MAX ZIMMER USHL 190

3 JAKE BEAN WHL 559
55 NOAH CARROLL OHL 84

I read somewhere that New Jersey hired a professional
poker player to help with their draft. It lookes to me
that the old drafting staff used the first pick, in normal
Devil style, then the poker player made 7 really good
picks. I'm undecided about the second round.

New Jersey
28 MICHAEL MCLEOD OHL 348
32 NATHAN BASTIAN OHL 329
34 MIKHAIL MALTSEV MHL 300
51 BRANDON GIGNAC QMJHL 225
56 JESPER BRATT Allsvenskan 210
60 JOSEPH ANDERSON USHL/USDP 200

27 YEGOR RYKOV MHL 307 (2015)
41 JEREMY DAVIES USHL 229 (2015)

Buffalo did ok, three overagers,
five picks that were fine, five that
were not.

Buffalo
9 ALEXANDER NYLANDER OHL 611
26 RASMUS ASPLUND SHL 387
57 VASILI GLOTOV MHL 424 (2015)
64 BRANDON HAGEL WHL 194
68 CLIFF PU OHL 188
96 BRETT MURRAY CCHL 61

31 CASEY FITZGERALD NCAA 279 (2015)
47 PHILIP NYBERG SuperElit 201 (2015)
53 VOJTECH BUDIK WHL 89
54 AUSTIN OSMANSKI OHL 87

Arizona did very well with only four picks.

Arizona
4 CLAYTON KELLER USDP/USHL 820

5 JAKOB CHYCHRUN OHL 499
11 CAM DINEEN OHL 332
51 DEAN STEWART MJHL 95

LGR4GM · August 30, 2016

that's an impressive list

rakii's draft thread

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