Are the current Buffalo Sabres our version of "The Marshmallow Test"?

[Iron Crotch]

I can't help but think of the famous Stanford Marshmallow Experiment when I view the two groups of Sabres fans - the groups that are patient and on board with the short term pain for the long term goal of consistent excellence, and the other group who want to do everything to win now even if it denies us a realistic chance at the Cup and could set us back years.

 

http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stanford_marshmallow_experiment

 

"The Stanford marshmallow experiment[1] was a series of studies on delayed gratification in the late 1960s and early 1970s led by psychologist Walter Mischel, then a professor at Stanford University. In these studies, a child was offered a choice between one small reward provided immediately or two small rewards if they waited for a short period, approximately 15 minutes, during which the tester left the room and then returned. (The reward was sometimes a marshmallow, but often a cookie or a pretzel.) In follow-up studies, the researchers found that children who were able to wait longer for the preferred rewards tended to have better life outcomes, as measured by SAT scores,[2] educational attainment,[3] body mass index (BMI),[4] and other life measures.[5]"

 

For the record, I'm on board with waiting for that second marshmallow.

 

This is a complete misuse of the research on self-control and delayed gratification. Draft choices in sports are akin to gambles on futures, not risk-free certain outcomes. A better place to draw analogies is from the research on judgment and decision making given uncertainty (e.g., journals like the Journal of Risk and Uncertainty).  Winning now does not preclude a desirable future outcome just as losing now does not necessarily suggest future success.  IMHO, losing on purpose is like trying to improve your hand in a game of poker.  At this point, most have developed the unwavering notion that the two most valuable players in this draft when all is said and done will be the top 2 picks.  Unequivocally.  I look at what as happened on this board as a fantastic example of focus-induced tunnel vision (and herding behavior), which is a phenomenon I know quite a lot about... folks have convinced themselves that there is one and only one "proper" course of action...

 

There is a stream of research across several fields (mostly Economics) on drafting in sports and more than one paper that attempts to correlate NHL drafting with future success.  To summarize the studies I'm aware of, the strongest indicator of future success is "hitting" on mid-round and late-round picks.  The basic logic is it takes all 20 players to be successful and strong mid-/late-round returns make the difference.

[bunomatic]

Folks haven't convinced themselves that there is only one proper course of action. I can't remember how many times its been said on sabrespace but it is substantial. There is more than one way to build a team. In fact there are many ways to build a team. There. Its been said again. 

[qwksndmonster]

I am not good with twins. Saw one crying, thought I could comfort her, went up, put my arms around her....then called her her sister's name  :doh:

I am glad I don't know many (any) twins.  I can barely keep names straight when the two people are siblings separated by 5 years.

[Wyldnwoody44]

Mother of god. FLAVORED PEEPS!?

Just finished blue raspberry and sour watermelon ones!!!! And the strawberry heart peep in February ate delicious... Stepping up the marshmallow game!!!

[PASabreFan]

I've been thinking about this. As others have said, this is really a terrible analogy for Jeremy White to be using. But also: why is it nobler for the child to delay gratification? Why associate it — surely because of some bias, right bio? — with more positive outcomes later in life? The kid who accepts the one marshmallow (I really wish it was marshmellow, by the way) should be patted on the back. He or she's not greedy. He or she accepts the one and is happy. That's self control. The second kid, the "delayer," comes off as a little greedy, no? I mean, the wait is only 15 minutes. He or she really wants two. Does he or she care that there are only so many marshmellows? Doesn't he or she want to share? Two marshmellows, two kids. Does the "good kid" ask that, in 15 minutes, a friend to join him or her to enjoy the second marshmellow?

 

Whatever. The good kid has a Beemer and I don't. All hail positive indicators of "success" in America.