Weave Posted May 8, 2011 Author Report Share Posted May 8, 2011 The TV guys were saying this was the largest Derby crowd ever as well. I think my buddies and I might start hitting up Batavia once in a while. Since I got back into riding again it's definitely renewed my interest in the races. Batavia can be a fun place to watch the ponies run. It's harness racing of course, not thoroughbreds. But it is fun stuff to watch and bet on nonetheless. We hit the Downs several times each racing season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
X. Benedict Posted May 8, 2011 Report Share Posted May 8, 2011 Ended up going with Master of Hounds....mostly betting jock, Gomez. Hated the price on Twice the Appeal. If I had known Johnny V was on Animal kingdom (how'd that happen?)..... usually I bet the Jocks in big fields Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ghost of Dwight Drane Posted May 9, 2011 Report Share Posted May 9, 2011 Ended up going with Master of Hounds....mostly betting jock, Gomez. Hated the price on Twice the Appeal. If I had known Johnny V was on Animal kingdom (how'd that happen?)..... usually I bet the Jocks in big fields Robbie Albarado was going to ride him, then got thrown in the paddock early in the week and broke his nose and orbital I think. He sat out Thursday and Friday to save it up for Saturday, but when Uncle Mo scratched, they jumped at Johnny V. using the injury as an excuse. I have little sympathy for jockeys losing a mount. 95% of them will spin you for a shot at a free t-shirt. Preakness will be Animal Kingdom, Mucho Macho Man, Dialed In and maybe Shakleford. Nehro is probably gonna skip. There will be 8-10 new faces in there, with maybe half having a realistic shot. Dialed In is going to win over $6 million if he wins because of a 5.5 bonus the track owner put out for winning 2 prep races at Gulfstream. Betting wise, AK 5-2, and MMM and DI between 4-1 and 5-1. I had a bad betting weekend. The only saving grace was I recouped a bunch on the Woodford right before the Derby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shrader Posted May 9, 2011 Report Share Posted May 9, 2011 Apparently my brother hit the trifecta on this race. Not a bad payoff at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ghost of Dwight Drane Posted May 9, 2011 Report Share Posted May 9, 2011 Apparently my brother hit the trifecta on this race. Not a bad payoff at all. The IRS thanks him. I didn't look at Animal Kingdom twice. He was working well, but his sire is a dud on dirt, his trainer is better with turf, his ownership is a partnership that likes to run for the exposure....and he won going away! I'm more disappointed that I got pressured into a Mint Julep. 2 sips....done. I just don't get it.....at least the Preakness has a drinkable signature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Freeezo Posted May 10, 2011 Report Share Posted May 10, 2011 The IRS thanks him. I didn't look at Animal Kingdom twice. He was working well, but his sire is a dud on dirt, his trainer is better with turf, his ownership is a partnership that likes to run for the exposure....and he won going away! I'm more disappointed that I got pressured into a Mint Julep. 2 sips....done. I just don't get it.....at least the Preakness has a drinkable signature. Dwight- Anything you take away that is negative about Animal for the preakness? the bearing out in stretch? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
X. Benedict Posted May 10, 2011 Report Share Posted May 10, 2011 Dwight- Anything you take away that is negative about Animal for the preakness? the bearing out in stretch? I wonder who rides him at Pimlico? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
darksabre Posted May 10, 2011 Report Share Posted May 10, 2011 Soooo looking forward to seeing Mucho run again at Preakness. Maybe he and AK will run together to the front again haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ghost of Dwight Drane Posted May 10, 2011 Report Share Posted May 10, 2011 Dwight-Anything you take away that is negative about Animal for the preakness? the bearing out in stretch? I don't think it was a big deal. They all were tired and the ones going forward were bobing and weaving....the ones coming to a stop didn't have enough momentum to bob and weave. AK, MMM, Nehro and POF all took turns coming in/out on each other down the stretch. The only thing I'll say is that long term he may be a better turf horse. Last year Paddy O'prado took to Churchill and trained great coming in, and did well...but was really a better turf horse. I can't take anything away because he ran great and had a great turn of foot when it mattered. I wouldn't be shocked to see Nehro get the best sheets number, and I think that's why they will hold him out of the Preakness. MMM really blossomed in the last month, and if he keeps his weight on, he should be a force again in the Preakness. As of now I will ignore Dialed In. It's like a poker pot.....they are looking at 6 million to win, so they almost have to run as long as he isn't risking a disaster. I wonder who rides him at Pimlico? Johnny V, I'm sure. They will make it up by giving Albarado first call on a few nice babies and maybe if a jock can't travel. Soooo looking forward to seeing Mucho run again at Preakness. Maybe he and AK will run together to the front again haha That horse is cool as a cucumber. He is so big and young that I wasn't excited about his appearance until recently. She did a great job keeping him fit while still letting him blow up. I said after the race I'd take 6-1 on him right now to win the Travers. I still don't know what his trip is. He has such a big stride that Belmont will allow him to keep momentum all race, sort of like the long stretch at Churchill got him going. I think he has the perfect style for the Preakness distance. He can sit off the speed of the speed and hopefully get first jump. I want to see who else comes. Flashpoint is a great looking horse who might fit. I don't know them all though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Freeezo Posted May 10, 2011 Report Share Posted May 10, 2011 I don't think it was a big deal. They all were tired and the ones going forward were bobing and weaving....the ones coming to a stop didn't have enough momentum to bob and weave. AK, MMM, Nehro and POF all took turns coming in/out on each other down the stretch. The only thing I'll say is that long term he may be a better turf horse. Last year Paddy O'prado took to Churchill and trained great coming in, and did well...but was really a better turf horse. I can't take anything away because he ran great and had a great turn of foot when it mattered. I wouldn't be shocked to see Nehro get the best sheets number, and I think that's why they will hold him out of the Preakness. MMM really blossomed in the last month, and if he keeps his weight on, he should be a force again in the Preakness. As of now I will ignore Dialed In. It's like a poker pot.....they are looking at 6 million to win, so they almost have to run as long as he isn't risking a disaster. Johnny V, I'm sure. They will make it up by giving Albarado first call on a few nice babies and maybe if a jock can't travel. That horse is cool as a cucumber. He is so big and young that I wasn't excited about his appearance until recently. She did a great job keeping him fit while still letting him blow up. I said after the race I'd take 6-1 on him right now to win the Travers. I still don't know what his trip is. He has such a big stride that Belmont will allow him to keep momentum all race, sort of like the long stretch at Churchill got him going. I think he has the perfect style for the Preakness distance. He can sit off the speed of the speed and hopefully get first jump. I want to see who else comes. Flashpoint is a great looking horse who might fit. I don't know them all though. Well the thing is I still think the fastest 3yo is Baffert's "the factor". I guess Bob is gonna make the call after his work this weekend. He had throat surgery recently Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Freeezo Posted May 11, 2011 Report Share Posted May 11, 2011 The IRS thanks him. I didn't look at Animal Kingdom twice. He was working well, but his sire is a dud on dirt, his trainer is better with turf, his ownership is a partnership that likes to run for the exposure....and he won going away! I'm more disappointed that I got pressured into a Mint Julep. 2 sips....done. I just don't get it.....at least the Preakness has a drinkable signature. Any chance you have seen Astrology work out at Churchill? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ghost of Dwight Drane Posted May 11, 2011 Report Share Posted May 11, 2011 Any chance you have seen Astrology work out at Churchill? Nope. He has every right to improve though with that pedigree. I can get some good reads in the morning come Saratoga. I was only at Churchill for a few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ghost of Dwight Drane Posted May 11, 2011 Report Share Posted May 11, 2011 Well the thing is I still think the fastest 3yo is Baffert's "the factor". I guess Bob is gonna make the call after his work this weekend. He had throat surgery recently Factor out. The sheets numbers just came out. For anyone not familiar with them, they are numbers used to quantify the effort used during the race. The lower the number, the better. They take into account things like going wide on the turn, wind, trip trouble, etc. They are highly respected and used by many of the top people in racing to detrmine when and where to race. Certain people pay big money to get the numbers early in order to try and buy a horse out from under someone. The theory behind their patterns and race spacing is what I referred to a few years ago when stating Ryan Miller is overplayed and why only larger goalies should be used anywhere near 68-70 games. Believe it or not, the owner of the Derby winner does not want to race in the Preakness because he is such a firm believer in this theory. He probably will race out of respect for the history of the Triple Crown and because even with his expected "bounce", he may squeak out a win if MMM bounces as well and none of the newcomers improves by 4-6 lengths from their last race. But I know in his gut he wants to sit it out and he would be a huge favorite in the Belmont. AK 3.25, Nehro 5, MMM 5.75, Shakleford 7.75, Dialed In 9 On patterns, AK and MMM may be a photo finish. They both had 6 weeks off before the Derby, so that helps. MMM actually has the better pattern as he has slightly improved each of his last 3 races. That is usually a good sign of a naturally improving horse who hasn't hit his peak yet. I hope they both run as it may set up for an exciting stretch duel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
darksabre Posted May 11, 2011 Report Share Posted May 11, 2011 Factor out. The sheets numbers just came out. For anyone not familiar with them, they are numbers used to quantify the effort used during the race. The lower the number, the better. They take into account things like going wide on the turn, wind, trip trouble, etc. They are highly respected and used by many of the top people in racing to detrmine when and where to race. Certain people pay big money to get the numbers early in order to try and buy a horse out from under someone. The theory behind their patterns and race spacing is what I referred to a few years ago when stating Ryan Miller is overplayed and why only larger goalies should be used anywhere near 68-70 games. Believe it or not, the owner of the Derby winner does not want to race in the Preakness because he is such a firm believer in this theory. He probably will race out of respect for the history of the Triple Crown and because even with his expected "bounce", he may squeak out a win if MMM bounces as well and none of the newcomers improves by 4-6 lengths from their last race. But I know in his gut he wants to sit it out and he would be a huge favorite in the Belmont. AK 3.25, Nehro 5, MMM 5.75, Shakleford 7.75, Dialed In 9 On patterns, AK and MMM may be a photo finish. They both had 6 weeks off before the Derby, so that helps. MMM actually has the better pattern as he has slightly improved each of his last 3 races. That is usually a good sign of a naturally improving horse who hasn't hit his peak yet. I hope they both run as it may set up for an exciting stretch duel. Man I love learning new things like this. Real cool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Freeezo Posted May 12, 2011 Report Share Posted May 12, 2011 Factor out. The sheets numbers just came out. For anyone not familiar with them, they are numbers used to quantify the effort used during the race. The lower the number, the better. They take into account things like going wide on the turn, wind, trip trouble, etc. They are highly respected and used by many of the top people in racing to detrmine when and where to race. Certain people pay big money to get the numbers early in order to try and buy a horse out from under someone. The theory behind their patterns and race spacing is what I referred to a few years ago when stating Ryan Miller is overplayed and why only larger goalies should be used anywhere near 68-70 games. Believe it or not, the owner of the Derby winner does not want to race in the Preakness because he is such a firm believer in this theory. He probably will race out of respect for the history of the Triple Crown and because even with his expected "bounce", he may squeak out a win if MMM bounces as well and none of the newcomers improves by 4-6 lengths from their last race. But I know in his gut he wants to sit it out and he would be a huge favorite in the Belmont. AK 3.25, Nehro 5, MMM 5.75, Shakleford 7.75, Dialed In 9 On patterns, AK and MMM may be a photo finish. They both had 6 weeks off before the Derby, so that helps. MMM actually has the better pattern as he has slightly improved each of his last 3 races. That is usually a good sign of a naturally improving horse who hasn't hit his peak yet. I hope they both run as it may set up for an exciting stretch duel. Dwight- Doesn't the bottom of MMM's pedigree eventually catch up to him? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ghost of Dwight Drane Posted May 12, 2011 Report Share Posted May 12, 2011 Dwight- Doesn't the bottom of MMM's pedigree eventually catch up to him? Not the way he runs. He is huge and leggy. His stride is what makes the difference. There isn't a lot of success in the family, but every now and then one just pops up out of nowhere. It isn't a stellar crop of 3 year olds right now. It's interesting because he ran very well as a 2 year old but his body is one that won't peak until 4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ghost of Dwight Drane Posted May 12, 2011 Report Share Posted May 12, 2011 Man I love learning new things like this. Real cool. I love talking ponies. It makes it easy because unlike the Sabres where you are "stuck" following a team for better or worse, if you don't like the way a horse looks....just don't bet him! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Freeezo Posted May 12, 2011 Report Share Posted May 12, 2011 Not the way he runs. He is huge and leggy. His stride is what makes the difference. There isn't a lot of success in the family, but every now and then one just pops up out of nowhere. It isn't a stellar crop of 3 year olds right now. It's interesting because he ran very well as a 2 year old but his body is one that won't peak until 4. Kinda reminds me of Skip Away who did well at three but really dominated at 4. Man he was a great one. Thanks for telling me about MMM. Otherwise, I may have dismissed him.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Freeezo Posted May 12, 2011 Report Share Posted May 12, 2011 Also, wanted to say I'm bummed about the death of MC Baze. There are obvious advantages to the job (some get rich quick), but man what a tough job. Trying to make weight. Etc.. Reminds me of following the ups and down's of Antley or P. Val. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
darksabre Posted May 12, 2011 Report Share Posted May 12, 2011 Also, wanted to say I'm bummed about the death of MC Baze. There are obvious advantages to the job (some get rich quick), but man what a tough job. Trying to make weight. Etc.. Reminds me of following the ups and down's of Antley or P. Val. Yeah I caught that on twitter yesterday. Real sad. Kid was so young too. Have they said what the cause was yet? Last I knew they were waiting on toxicology reports. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Freeezo Posted May 12, 2011 Report Share Posted May 12, 2011 Yeah I caught that on twitter yesterday. Real sad. Kid was so young too. Have they said what the cause was yet? Last I knew they were waiting on toxicology reports. Nothing sure yet. He was a couple day's from facing felony drug charge. Going thru a divorce. Tough times...One could infer that it was drug related-OD etc. Life can be tough!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ghost of Dwight Drane Posted May 13, 2011 Report Share Posted May 13, 2011 Hockey is really doomed. Versus is now going to have a 2 hour horse racing show every Saturday and telecast live from Saratoga every weekend along with NBC. Versus seems like the guy picking up the cans under the bleachers at a NASCAR event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
X. Benedict Posted May 13, 2011 Report Share Posted May 13, 2011 Hockey is really doomed. Versus is now going to have a 2 hour horse racing show every Saturday and telecast live from Saratoga every weekend along with NBC. Versus seems like the guy picking up the cans under the bleachers at a NASCAR event. Why does that hurt hockey? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ghost of Dwight Drane Posted May 13, 2011 Report Share Posted May 13, 2011 Why does that hurt hockey? I'm just laughing at the celebration of the NHL TV contract. Versus/NBC is actually going to pay to broadcast all these races. Ask the average poster here what they think about horseracing as a viable, or expandable sport. There is also talk of NASCAR type sponsorships in all these races. You sometimes see it now, but I think they are trying to work out a major deal. Saratoga is official, but the Versus thing isn't yet. I guess it could still fall apart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
X. Benedict Posted May 17, 2011 Report Share Posted May 17, 2011 I'm just laughing at the celebration of the NHL TV contract. Versus/NBC is actually going to pay to broadcast all these races. Ask the average poster here what they think about horseracing as a viable, or expandable sport. There is also talk of NASCAR type sponsorships in all these races. You sometimes see it now, but I think they are trying to work out a major deal. Saratoga is official, but the Versus thing isn't yet. I guess it could still fall apart. Actually I think that covering Horse Racing should be cheap programming. It's one sport where the athletes have absolutely no collective bargaining power. (aside from Jocks, of course) I don't see how they could lose money doing it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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