IKnowPhysics

Irwin is still a mess. Can't skate, bad pinches.

Good to have Ullmark in. Maybe a strong game earns him a start tomorrow too. Curious to see how Davidson-Joker do. On Skinner, per RK's pregame: "We don't judge our players only on statistics. It's a bit of a gut feel that the best lineup for tonight is to put Casey Mittelstadt in that spot. It's less against Jeff than it is what we think this group needs today and what we need for our game from our team today. I did mention early on to everybody early on that players would be sitting out and we have five games in six and a half days. ... I think it's good for Jeff to take a look once from the outside. We have coaches active with him to work together to have him come back an even stronger player."

It's always hard to tell how GMs value blue collar defensemen like McCabe, and there always seems to be the one or two GMs that wildly overvalue random players, which makes it harder. Maybe analytics has smoothed that out over the years or maybe not. Jake's an above-replacement defenseman that could theoretically improve most rosters at some price point and usage, but it'll be the teams desperate for defense and project a bigger role for him that drive the market. Sabres obviously value him on the ice and in the lockerroom (he has an 'A') and are probably on the list of desperate teams that would drive the market. But then things get all jumbled up about health and recovery and long term durability. The access of the Sabres' team doctors likely gives the Sabres more insight into that status and allow them to make a more deliberate decision. Unless the player is demonstrably excellent, I don't think teams are going to offer long term (6+ year) deals to 27 year olds. But I think Jake is past the point of a prove-it contract, unless his health/recovery is bad enough to really cast serious doubts. If recovery is good, the market will treat him like a known quantity and get him signed for 3-5 years for $3-4.25M. If recovery is not good, it'll be obvious, as the Sabres might only offer one or two years like you said.

Fascinating. Reflecting on all of those ideas, I don't think I've ever agreed with any of them, obviously outside of the latter. I also don't engage twatter very much, so I can't tell what's passé or dead horse beatery. I get the frustration, though. The numbers are another way to watch the same game. At the end of the day, do any of those things matter -does it matter if Jeff is creating scoring chances or not- if the team's not winning? Absolutely not. Let's get a W tonight. I hope whoever's getting the D minutes in Risto and McCabe's absence tonight holds the fort.

Interesting thought. I think you're right. Several metrics indicate a career year. Giveaways were way down and takeaways were way up over all previous years. Point rates, shot rates, individual HDCF rate, all shot-based possession percentages, and penalties drawn were all up. Lead Sabres D in CF%, FF%, HDCF%, HDGF%.

McCabe highlights for good best wishes juju.

F u c k. I very much hope he recovers to 100%.

This is my new favorite unfounded conspiracy theory. If it were truly RK's GM-given mission to ***** Jeff Skinner into oblivion at all costs, the overall season usage would probably look different though. Put him out against the hardest competition, make him D-zone start 100%. Play him 5 minutes a game. Constantly change linemates. Healthy scratch him and play him injured, just within CBA rules. Anyways, RK typically doesn't reveal lines until game time for away games, so we'll be forced to wildly and inaccurately speculate until then.

Yes. But it's possible that there's more floating out there from actual conversations with the coaches. Jeff is one of the highest players in the league (and leads the Sabres) in ixG/60, iHDCF/60, and iCF/60. He's productive. He's creation of high danger chances is simply prolific. He tilts the ice in possession and shots. He's a good player. But he's not blameless. He's paid to score. The team needs him to score. He's simply not burying the puck on those chances and it costs the team dearly in the win column. What does Jeff Skinner need to do differently in order to finish on all of those chances? I don't think even Jeff Skinner or the coaching staff knows. But this is the start. Skinner, even goal-less gives the team a better chance to win every night than a replacement player. The team needs Skinner to start burying all the chances he's generating and he can't do that from the press box. Same with Eichel., Hall, Staal, and whomever is being plugged into RW2 today.

Article is making guesses, based on the practice lines from yesterday, which is an imperfect predictor of scratches. Could just be the coaches trying out different combos for when the taxi squad swaps in. Plus, even if the line combos are correct, I'm not 100% that Skinner-Asplund-Thompson is the line that sits. I'm hoping Ullmark gets the nod for both starts.

Nicholas Picholas.

Watching the play, it's almost definitely knee ligaments. I'm really, really hoping it's not season-ending. Jake is a warrior for us.

Doesn't sound like Risto will catch up to the team...

Sabres are 4-6-2 with 31GF and 38GA and are overcoming COVID. In 2014-15, Sabres went 2-9-1 in their first 12 games with 13 GF and 41GA. This season don't have ***** on that.

Must score

Frustrating outcome, especially for the coaches and players. Sabres out-shot and vastly out-chanced NYI (HDCF 12 HDCA 5 in favor of Buffalo). The difference? Sorokin has a season HDSV% of 0.800, Hutton 0.724. Sorokin statistically would have allowed 2.4 goals, but instead stepped up to 1.000. Hutton did not. In 5v5 so far this season (insert small sample size disclaimer): Ullmark is HDSV% = 5 HDGA / 46 HDCA = 0.891 (opponent HDSH% 10.9%) Team (with Ullmark ) HDSH% 5 HDGF / 52 HDCF = 9.6% Hutton is HDSV% 8 HDGA /40 HDCA = 0.800 (opponent HDSH% 20.0%) Team (with Hutton) HDSH% 3 HDGF / 45 HDCF = 6.7% Summary: In 5v5, when Hutton's on the ice, we're making opposing goalies look stellar and Hutton can't keep us in games. It doesn't matter if we out-chance NYI 12 to 5 if we can't score and Hutton can't hold up. With these averages for 60 minutes of 5v5, NYI would still have won this game by a score of (0.8 x 5) 1 goal to our (0.067 x 12) 0.8 goals. Carter Hutton is 57th (fifty ***** seventh) in the league in 5v5 HDSV%. Expect to lose games with Hutton in net, unless we somehow absolutely torch an opposing goaltender.

Thanks Obettman

Montour and McCabe confirmed they were symptomatic per Vogl and Lysowski tweets. I would imagine they need more on ice workouts to recover from a serious respiratory ailment before being game-ready.

Tukka Rask that goes to the bench in a tied game Tukka Rask?

I agree. May we never forget that the Leafs ***** suck.

What did you want him to say?

It's this. He's saying as much as he's allowed to say. "We didn't have COVID before NJ played their guy who got put in protocol despite us voicing our concerns, but I'm being told I'm not a doctor, so..."