That Aud Smell

The sauce they serve in the restaurant is prepared on premises. The "Chef's" sauce that gets jarred elsewhere is sold at retail. In my experience, the two sauces have very little in common. The stuff you get on-site is, imo, excellent, but tastes vary. The stuff you buy in a grocery store is pretty bland.

The sample size is still pretty limited, but his linemates are in the positive values when it comes to 5v5 Shot Attempt percentage differential, (MoJo is right around break even, while Skinner's more like ~3) and Sobotka's in that negative 6 range.

"Seeing ghosts."

I think you've posited the question incorrectly. I think the question is: Does a sound analytical model more accurately predict a team's future results than a sportscaster's best guess(es)? No one has a crystal ball, obviously. I'm also - all of a sudden - intrigued by how "small sample size" factors into NFL modeling.

I'm gonna keep plunking Tierney's team shot rate charts in this thread. Sabres have crept into the good quadrant (after straddling the dull/good quadrant).

A rare home and home against a west coast team. Let's go, Buffalo.

Lots of #fancystats are complex concepts. PDO ain’t one of them. It’s SH% + SV% while you’re on the ice. Skinner’s line has something like .985 SV% and .15% SH% while on the ice. Really, really favourable numbers. They’re (probably?) not going to last. All of which isn’t to say that they’re not playing well. They’re playing well. But their output is partly a function of good fortune, so far. And fortune is fickle. (Yet it also favours the bold (?!).)

The Skinner line is fine. Sobotka is fine. Until their PDO starts to fall back towards 100. It’s right around 110 right now, which is pretty ridonk.

Yeah. I was there. No Goal aside, that Sabres team's successes were ... incredible. Because Hasek was incredible. Had the team around Hasek been materially better, they could have had a dynasty. Whither "the tools to finish the job," Johnny Reegs? As it was, Hasek bolted, knowing he needed to leave to win a Cup.

Fair point. I think the team is just better off with a player who's as defensively responsible as Sobotka and has some more upside in the O-zone. This made me chuckle. #Fancystatters likely would've gone hoarse declaring the Sabres' success unsustainable. OTOH, the fact that the team didn't win a Cup with Hasek sorta proves the same point.

No idea why you’d do that. I’m not advocating that. I think we’re all - in our own ways - hopeful that another top-6 forward comes in and succeeds to Vlad’s role.

Hat tip to you, sir. For this season, I have not been posting to this thread during the game.

I think their 5v5 goal differential is somewhere around 0 - or a low negative number. Jack's 5v5 shot share metrics are not good, though -- verging on somewhat bad. That he's providing numbers that hover between dull and bad, while his more dynamic linemates trend toward good. The charts seem to indicate that he's holding them back. OTOH, perhaps his role on that line is being penalized by the stats that I understand.

My sense in this regard is that the Sabres should arrange their 13 forwards so that Sobotka is not among them.

I know it's a limited sample size, but there's no better PDO-poster-child goal than the one MoJo scored on that one-timer from the high slot (?) a few games back. A seeing eye puck, and, yes, a good screen (so sometimes you make your own luck). The line has been doing well. MoJo is carrying a PDO of nearly 110. The team would do well to improve that line. Also, who says the Eichel line is playing the opponent's top line "straight up even"? My sense is that the Eichel line is not quite getting the best of its matchups, on balance and to date. This may overstate things a bit, but I think it is more true than untrue.

^ Evidently not counted as a sack. Also, shoutout to the showboating Bills d-lineman who was so intent on celebrating his big play that he failed to realize he was damn near sitting on a loose ball. [The available replay doesn't really support my take, but the replays in-game did.]

I love Tierney. More food for thought here:

I hasten to add that Sean Tierney seems to have a somewhat more positive view of the Sabres, than what I posited above, based on his eye-pleasing charts. The Sabres seem to be straddling a line between somewhat dull (low-event) and somewhat good. An average team?

Hey - not for nothing - but sorting the season so far based on the advanced stats summary here is ... interesting. https://www.hockey-reference.com/leagues/NHL_2020.html The Sabres consistently fall in the bubble team range on a whole host of metrics. In addition to PDO, they also measure in the top-10 in converting high danger scoring chances. Relatedly, their opponents are in the bottom-5 in converting their high danger scoring chances. So, another angle on PDO, maybe. It looks like the Sabres are better, improved. But it also looks like they're bound to regress, unless they become stronger, better still.

I believe it was Oliver's sack on the WR who was looking to pass. What a bizarre performance by a reputedly excellent D.

Like @..., I'm not a true fancy stats poster (I know enough to be dangerous with them, maybe?), but I do enjoy them and try to understand them. Without doing a side by side, I think everyone agrees, based on eye test and #fancystats, that the current performance is qualitatively different than the winning streak of last fall (which, even at the time, felt, to me, magical and unsustainable). With regard to SH% and SV% being up, I'll note that Sabres right now are essentially tied for 1st in the league in PDO (SH% + SV%) - essentially some measure of puck luck. If PDO starts to fall off a bit, you're gonna see more regulation losses.

^ Who's doing colour in that clip? Big ups for the opportunity and competence.

And by the way: I think a more athletic Jay Cutler would be good enough to win some playoff games, provided the decision making is noticeably better and provided the run game and D are very good/excellent.

It's a bizarre dynamic. The team's 5-1, and yet, week to week, I somehow feel a little bit worse about the QB. OTOH, he still does enough to give hope as well. Someone who works in media Tweeted yesterday that Allen reminds him of a more athletic Jay Cutler. And I was like: Damn. That's not far off.

It’s delightful though how every letter combo works to create a fun sound. #OGL