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pi2000

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Posts posted by pi2000

  1. Over the previous 6 seasons... 

    GAAE - Goals Allowed Above Expected
    +-----------------------+--------+
    | team                  | GAAE   |
    +-----------------------+--------+
    | Buffalo Sabres        | 209.30 |
    | Detroit Red Wings     | 162.63 |
    | Philadelphia Flyers   | 161.32 |
    | Ottawa Senators       | 159.94 |
    | New Jersey Devils     | 155.84 |
    | Montreal Canadiens    | 132.15 |
    | San Jose Sharks       | 130.85 |
    | Minnesota Wild        | 130.20 |
    | Columbus Blue Jackets | 128.12 |
    | Edmonton Oilers       |  97.92 |
    | Chicago Blackhawks    |  97.76 |
    | Vancouver Canucks     |  81.63 |
    | Florida Panthers      |  74.66 |
    | Seattle Kraken        |  71.88 |
    | Calgary Flames        |  67.99 |
    | Toronto Maple Leafs   |  57.08 |
    | Pittsburgh Penguins   |  51.51 |
    | Tampa Bay Lightning   |  42.22 |
    | Washington Capitals   |  32.61 |
    | Los Angeles Kings     |  28.41 |
    | Arizona Coyotes       |  26.60 |
    | St Louis Blues        |  22.21 |
    | Colorado Avalanche    |  21.67 |
    | Vegas Golden Knights  |  15.27 |
    | Dallas Stars          |  -9.16 |
    | Carolina Hurricanes   | -11.38 |
    | Anaheim Ducks         | -18.05 |
    | Boston Bruins         | -25.69 |
    | Nashville Predators   | -36.97 |
    | New York Rangers      | -46.75 |
    | Winnipeg Jets         | -58.59 |
    | New York Islanders    | -58.65 |
    +-----------------------+--------+
    32 rows in set (0.00 sec)

     

    Sabres since 2010:

    +---------+-------+----------------+
    | year    | GAAE  | team           |
    +---------+-------+----------------+
    | 2010-11 |  7.36 | Buffalo Sabres | - Miller / Enroth
    | 2011-12 |  5.51 | Buffalo Sabres | - Miller / Enroth
    | 2013    | -3.78 | Buffalo Sabres | - Miller / Enroth
    | 2013-14 | -4.79 | Buffalo Sabres | - Miller / Enroth
    | 2014-15 | 18.28 | Buffalo Sabres | - Enroth / Neuvirth
    | 2015-16 |  3.30 | Buffalo Sabres | - Johnson / Ullmark / Lehner
    | 2016-17 | -3.80 | Buffalo Sabres | - Lehner / Nillson
    | 2017-18 | 41.06 | Buffalo Sabres | - Lehner / Johnson
    | 2018-19 | 39.71 | Buffalo Sabres | - Hutton / Ullmark
    | 2019-20 | 25.44 | Buffalo Sabres | - Hutton / Ullmark
    | 2020-21 | 32.99 | Buffalo Sabres | - Ullmark / Hutton / Tokarski
    | 2021-22 | 41.64 | Buffalo Sabres | - Anderson / Tokarski / Dell
    | 2022-23 | 28.46 | Buffalo Sabres | - UPL / Anderson / Comrie
    +---------+-------+----------------+
    13 rows in set (0.00 sec)

     

    • Shocked 1
  2. 23 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

    Every move by Adams on the goaltending front has been awful except trading for Levi and until he is the starter here the jury is still out.

    Keeping Hutton year 1. - Mistake.

    Letting Ullmark walk with the lame excuse of not blocking UPL and wanting to create "real" competition. - Mistake. After all how do you get real competition if you don't have real players at the position?

    Failure to have a plan B when Ullmark walked (as he should have). - Mistake.

    Scrapping the bottom of the goalie barrel for the last two seasons to find goaltending because UPL stinks.  Hiring Anderson, Comrie, Dell, Tokarski, and Subban.  All mistakes.

    Believing that UPL was ready to compete for real minutes in the NHL. - Mistake.

    Not willing to trade any quality assets to get help at the most vital position. -  Mistake.

    Trying to acquire cap dump goalies with NTCs. - Mistakes.

    Drafted a goaltender in the 2nd round who doesn't even have a .900 save % in Finland's juniors. - Mistake.

    Honestly, if UPL and Comrie are in camp next fall, Adams should be fired immediately.

     

     

    Letting KO decide not to send UPL down when he wanted to.  Mistake. 

    • Like (+1) 1
  3. Updated team goalkeeping stats....

    10 worst teams on home ice; total goals allowed above expected.   

    35.19,Buffalo Sabres
    34.98,San Jose Sharks
    21.39,Columbus Blue Jackets
    17.98,Vancouver Canucks
    14.94,Calgary Flames
    14.21,Chicago Blackhawks
    12.72,Detroit Red Wings
    11.98,Seattle Kraken
    6.07,Philadelphia Flyers
    5.93,Montreal Canadiens

    We have a new team holding down the  #1 spot.. they literally jumped the sharks 🙂 

    To put this in perspective, they're 135% worse than the 5th worst team... and 493% worse than the 10th worst team.

    I mean... c'mon, it's unfathomably historically bad.   

    Next, I'll look at the some recent historical stats just to see how bad this really is.  

    • Awesome! (+1) 1
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  4. Firing Granato won't magically make the goaltending better. 

    All he has done is taken the youngest and lowest cap team in the league to be the 9th best CF% team at 5-on-5 (58.13%).

    That's a minor miracle, IMO.

    Firing him is not an option, certainly not one that will make the team better.

    • Like (+1) 4
    • Agree 1
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  5. Just wait till you see what a difference goaltending makes.

    It's absurd how bad goaltending is on home ice, and it's getting worse.

    Outshoot the Bruins... 26-25, 2.58 xGA, 3.33 xGF, result 7-0 loss, UPL .720 sv%.

    Outshoot the Preds 31-27, 3.2 xGA, 4.2 xGF, result 7-3 loss, Anderson .700 sv%

    As someone who played at a high level it's absolutely critical that you trust your goaltender to make saves.  If you don't have that trust, then it's virtually impossible to play your normal game.

    • Like (+1) 7
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  6. 1 hour ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

    Hopefully, the plan is for all 3 Sabres goalies to retire or play elsewhere next season.

    10 worst teams on home ice; goals allowed above expected..

    35.04 Sharks
    31.39 Sabres
    21.39 BlueJackets
    16.54 Canucks
    14.94 Flames
    14.21 Blackhawks
    11.98 Kraken
    10.07 RedWings
    7.69 Flyers
    6.9 Canadiens

    31 goals above expected is almost a goal per game.    That's insane, you simply can't win with that type of goaltending.

    However, on the road Sabres rank 12th best, giving up 7 fewer goals than expected...

    22.41 Kings
    20.73 Canucks
    14.48 Panthers
    14.31 Oilers
    9.26 Blues
    8.54 RedWings
    7.42 Kraken
    7.21 BlueJackets
    5.41 Senators
    4.32 Penguins
    3.97 Coyotes
    2.49 Ducks
    1.93 Hurricanes
    0.81 Flames
    -0.65 JoseSharks
    -2.73 Flyers
    -3.22 BayLightning
    -3.62 Capitals
    -3.71 Jets
    -6.41 Blackhawks
    -6.73 Sabres
    -7.59 GoldenKnights
    -8.49 Canadiens
    -10.81 Predators
    -11.65 MapleLeafs
    -12.43 Islanders
    -13.69 Devils
    -13.98 Avalanche
    -15.9 Stars
    -16.95 Rangers
    -18 Wild
    -23.51 Bruins

     

    I just can't wrap my head around why goaltending has been so abysmal at home vs the road.

    • Like (+1) 1
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  7. Reason's to be optimistic.....

    • Lowest spending cap team in the league was in the wildcard mix late into March
    • If they simply had average goaltending on home ice, they'd be securely in a wildcard spot:
    • Levi
    • One of the top scoring teams in the league with a deep pipeline of young offensive talent
    • Youngest team in the league; most of these players have never played this much hockey over the course of a full season; this late season slump is not unexpected.
    • Disagree 1
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  8. 7 minutes ago, JoeSchmoe said:

    This is the first year of those 10 I've watched the standings in March. This is also the first of those 10 years we're a goalie away from the playoffs. 

    Finding a goalie might be easier said than done, especially with Levi being young and not a guarantee, but I'll choose to be optimistic, despite being down about today.

    Same.

    The fact that the lowest cap spending team in the league was in the wildcard mix this late in the season is reason to be optimistic. 

    It's what they do with that cap apace moving forward that matters. 

  9. 10 minutes ago, Pimlach said:

    I don’t understand the need to rush him. 
     

    I would hate to throw him into the lions den without some work with the team in practice.  

    It's not rushing him when there's reason to believe he's the best goalie on the roster and they're in a race for a wildcard spot.

    That said, I agree, he should get atleast one practice under his belt before throwing him to the wolves.

    Spencer Knight had a similar situation. Drafted, 2 years of college, pro debut at 21 years old, played 4 regular season games for FLA after his college season ended.

    He put up a .919 sv% in those 4 games which was just below his final college season .932%.

    That said, Levi had better college stats (in the same conference as Knight, arguably on a worse team), so there's some hope he can provide some immediate relief. 

    • Like (+1) 2
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  10. 1 minute ago, dudacek said:

     

    Don’t disagree with this.

    Disagree with the idea it’s risky to give him a game.

    You’re not going to crush his career or our playoff chances.

    The latter might be a question if our current goalies were good.

     

    I think we're underestimating how bad our goaltending actually is.

    In the land of the blind one-eyed man is king.

    • Agree 1
  11. 1 hour ago, Taro T said:

    He has a very legitimate excuse not to sign prior to Sunday evening.  If we get past Monday lunchtime and he isn't signed, then there is an indecisiveness.  But right now, should the team make the dance, without Levi they are toast.  The 2 forwards that left, will certainly hurt their chances but it won't doom them.  (Thought it's likely moot anyhow.  Doubt they get into the NCAAs.)

    Unacceptable.   

    Sounds like he has a severe case of doesn't-want-to-be-here-itis.   

    By next week Buffalo may be out of the playoff picture, therefore he's not a team player.   

    I, for one, don't want him infecting this team with his selfish and childish antics.

    If he signed today he could immediately start his 8 game shutout streak to put the Sabres firmly in a wildcard spot. 

  12. 18 minutes ago, Pimlach said:

    Look at his stats.  GAA and Sv % indicate below average.   He has played enough to believe the numbers.  He had yet to make a shoot out save. Hence, he is below average.  
     

    I am really not here to discuss UPLs development progress.  Do you think he should have saved the 4th goal?   Are you happy with the worst rated PK in the league?  

    Out of 64 goalies that have played at least 65 min shorthanded, Comrie ranks 63rd (.791) and UPL 56th (.832) in short-handed save percentage. 

    Aderson?  He ranks 14th (.888).     UPL and Comrie are that bad.

    Sometimes your goalie needs to be your best penalty killer.

    That said, the Sabress give up the 7th most high danger chances on the penalty kill.... so yeah, do better Granato.  

    • Like (+1) 2
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