RochesterExpat

I get the intent of this thread and Alex Lyon is the clear #1 goalie right now, but (as others have pointed out) it's still early and the Sabres are asking a lot from him. My attitude is to ride the hot hand which is clearly Lyon at the moment. At the same time, Buffalo needs to be ready to pivot if/when the hand goes cold; unfortunately, the pivot plan right now is concerning. Reality is that Alex Lyon is 33 in two months, went undrafted, and has seen glimpses of the NHL over 9 seasons but regressed in stats since 2022-2023 for a total of 117 games. The most games he every played in a season was two years ago at 44--a season he stole the starting net from Vile Husso (helped by Vile Husso getting injured/COVID and Detroit limiting James Reimer's minutes). The likelihood that Alex Lyon can actually run a 50-60 game load is very low. Especially with Buffalo's play through the first four games. It's so low, it would make him a statistical unicorn. So what happens when Lyon falters? Are you going to pivot to UPL who has played 20 minutes of pre-season hockey, or to the NHL-untested waiver claim in Ellis? I suspect what will happen is: Lyon plays the majority of games (assuming he continues to perform). Ellis will get the Wings @ Sabres on 10/22 so he has some playing time before the first back-to-back (10/24 & 10/25) against the Leafs. Ellis will get the Sabres @ Leafs on 10/25. If (maybe when?) UPL returns from injury, he will be sent to Rochester for a conditioning stint and he will be kept for the full 14 days (again, assuming Lyon continues to perform and Ellis proves serviceable). This is going to be his "pre-season." The next back-to-back is not until 11/12 (Mammoth) and 11/13 (Avs). Realistically, UPL is back by then since he is already practicing. That gives Ellis two games if Lyon continues to play well. The schedule is relatively favorable to a single goalie for October/November. Ellis might get one of Capitals @ Sabres (11/1) or Blues @ Sabres (11/6). If he gets one or both (the latter requires UPL's conditioning stint to start after 10/23 which seems unlikely since he is practicing), then we might have an idea of what approach Buffalo is taking. Basically, I'm guessing if Ellis gets more than two games between now and the end of UPL's conditioning stint, it's because Buffalo is trying to keep him. Now we have a three-headed monster. As much as people want to move on from UPL, they aren't going to do it unless Ellis plays lights out and UPL performs poorly in the AHL. And, if that's the case, we're then banking on Lyon to be the starter and maintain a pace of play I don't believe is realistic. It's a mess and this is 100% on the GM. The most likely outcome is that Lyon is the starter until he falters and UPL takes over. Ellis is waived.

I really like Josh Doan.

I forgot about (maybe repressed is more accurate) the mockery of a coaching search. It really is the exclamation point to it all.

This is my view from 15 years of playing hockey (not counting beer league) and a dozen years of coaching youth hockey--and just generally being a rink rat: Granato was in over his head, but he had the locker room behind him (until the end when it was apparent he was not coming back) and managed to get the most out of every player on the ice as a result. Lindy has the experience, but I don't think he has the buy-in and he is not getting nearly 100% from the majority of players. Granato was not a good strategist. His game management and inflexibility toward trying new lines (or anything new, frankly) being two notable shortcomings that no rose-tinted glasses will favorably color. His line deployments were, at least at times, best described as "questionable." Yet the team consistently outperformed--or, as you pointed out, at least 'met'--expectations. That's because he was the motivator that Ralph Krueger was supposed to be. The problem is that Granato was simply over his head at the NHL level. And this is where it gets most frustrating for me. As time has passed, it's become abundantly obvious that Granato was a good coach--just not at the NHL head coach level. Firing Granato and bringing in Ruff was a nostalgia-driven attempt at bringing in an NHL-level coach, but it ignored the consequences from the team morale side. The roster construction has improved since the time of Granato, but the team itself hasn't because Ruff doesn't connect with the players the way Granato did. I firmly believe if Granato had the current defense--and I'll even take the goaltending tandem of Lyon and completely-unproven-Ellis with it--he could get the Sabres into the playoffs. While we have 100 different things to scream about over the last decade and a half, one continuous tie-in is the assistant coaching. Granato might have succeeded as a head coach even in spite of the roster construction if he had a "game" coach on the bench with him who could have directed/advised him on strategy--even Mike Peca could have probably filled this role despite him also being a relative rookie. Granato needed someone to help fill in the strategy side for him. Shockingly, the powerplay extraordinaire, Matty Ellis, wasn't able to do that. I mean, ideally, Granato would have been an assistant coach and Buffalo would have hired a serious head coach, but that would be asking too much. Thing is, and to circle back to your closing point, I don't think replacing Granato was itself a bad move because, much like everything else, it's just a small part of the bigger issue. Granato wasn't an NHL-caliber coach, but he might have become one if he was given the support he needed and he'd have done it with (or in spite of?) the "in-house" roster Adams constructed. It's the same reason why so many of our players find success elsewhere. The organization doesn't understand support.

If that was our beer league goalie I would not want to go anywhere near him between periods because he’d be pissed.

That wasn’t his fault at all.

What was that defense? Who didn’t cycle to the man?

Yes, the franchise is sent to Atlanta.

He looked good in game one too until 4 minutes left in the game with that second goal. Overall he still played well.

What was that center reset? Timmins out positioned Pasta on that one although we should talk about what led to it…

I would put Johnson with Power only because Timmins and Samuelsson worked well enough last game to give it another chance. It was the first game in a long time where I didn't want to rant about Samuelsson after. That alone is worth keeping the pairing intact in the short-term. Especially since Kesselring will eventually return to partner with Power.

It’s odd and makes me wonder about predisposition (similar injury to last year) or strength and conditioning issues (the team overall)—the latter being really concerning because it extends beyond Norris. As my doctor explained to me for my situation, I had gone to the gym that morning, came home, and was outside moving logs and bags of animal feed around. I over worked myself without realizing it (granted, I’m mid-30s and certainly not an elite athlete so it doesn’t take much). I was just sore and I ignored it like a normal person. Anyway, I took a break for lunch and while cooking onions I sneezed. The sudden contraction of the muscles while sneezing caused the damage and it was sufficient to double me over. I could not stand up at all. I was basically immobilized. It was crazy. Is it the same/similar situation for him where the twisting motion from the face off brought him to his knees because he was overworked? No clue. But if it is, I should point out it was also entirely preventable when it happened to me and I should have known better. A professional athlete with access to team trainers, doctors, nutritionists—you name it—should absolutely know better. It’s very strange.

I had a partial tear of an ab from sneezing too hard (yes, seriously, I know it sounds dumb). It was excruciatingly painful and took weeks to heal. I can’t imagine that as a professional athlete because it’s totally immobilizing for a while. Conditioning has to take a massive hit.

It might work better than the 10 game win streak.

A prophet.