Archie Lee

A pick in the 50's in 2023 is worth more than pick 63 or 64 in 2024. I will be pleasantly surprised if we get a 2nd for Olofsson. I don't think we are getting significant blue-line help for him either. I like Olofsson more than most fans, but I don't think his value is very high.

The Sabres were able to negotiate a 3rd for Portillo. The Kings I'm sure had reason to think they would get him signed, but there was no compensation for Portillo if he walked to free agency. Maybe the 2nd rd compensation for Johnson means there is still an opportunity to get a 2nd in this year's draft for him. Chicago jumps out as they have four 2nd rd picks this year and with Bedard coming they might want a player who is closer to the NHL than anyone they will get in Rd 2 this year. Incidentally, the Blackhawks have some work to do to get to the cap floor. They also don't have any goal scorers on their current roster. A Johnson/Olofsson deal for a 2nd in 2023 and a later pick in 24 or 25 might make sense for both teams.

Well, we know that from a salary cap perspective, Adams is highly unlikely to make a "Tavares-like" investment for the forward group or the defence. One thing Adams has been pretty clear on is that he believes he needs to know a player before he commits long-term to them. Adams won't be signing another team's UFA to a long-term big money deal. He also won't be taking on a long-term deal in a trade (there won't be a Parayko-like acquisition). Any trade acquisition or free agent signing is likely to be for 2-3 years max, so that it does not hand-cuff the team long-term in the event that the player is not a good fit. The lesson with Tavares, in my view, is that patience is key. The best player available in any particular off-season, is not likely to be the best-player for the long-term.

It could just be that the "big 4" are too much of the same kind. Individually they might thrive in the playoffs in different environments. Combined, they leave the Leafs top-heavy and not built for deep playoff runs. Add to the mix that they have a string of playoff failures and that they play in the league's biggest fishbowl and the pressure is no doubt immense. It would not surprise me at all to see Matthews or Marner star in the playoffs on a different team. I don't buy that Paul Maurice, who took over the President's Trophy winner from a year ago and barely squeezed them into the playoffs, out-coached Keefe (or Montgomery for that matter). I think Keefe is a very good NHL coach who gets the most out of his team in the regular season. Come playoff time it is not so much that the Leafs shrink as it is that they have no particular room or area to grow. The things that you need to be prepared to do to win in the playoffs are things that they just don't have enough of in their arsenal. I don't hate Leaf players. My personality leaves me strongly disliking players like Tkachuk, Bennett and Gudas more so. Bunting aside, the Leafs are not a collection of players I have any particular issues with. They are the competition though. I hope they decide to dismantle and move on from Dubas and Keefe and at least one of Marner or Matthews (Tavares is not moveable for assets back and Nylander, the current fan and media darling, isn't going anywhere this off-season). I think if they make bold moves in an effort to be a better playoff team, it is more likely that the outcome is they are simply not as good in the regular season. Next year, the Atlantic race might just be wide-open.

The NHL is even dumber than people think then. Bedard to Chicago has just drawn attention to the monster under the rug.

I agree with this. It is long past time to remove fighting and predatory body checks from hockey. Fighting is simply not needed. The Sabres just finished a very entertaining year of hockey and there were 6-7 fights all season. I won't lie, fights lift me out of my seat. But I will easily give up those brief and few moments of excitement if it means that I don't need to see a player splayed out on the ice with his brain scrambled. I don't want one of the Sabres' young players careers to end prematurely or to read 15 years from now about how they are struggling with pain and cognitive dysfunction because of too many concussions. The same goes for predatory hitting. The reality is that predatory hits are there for the taking multiple times a game and most players pass on the opportunity to inflict injury on the opposition. They pass on the opportunity because the hit might take them out of position defensively or it might result in them being penalized or they know they are risking injury to themselves, and, in many cases, they have respect for their opposition and don't want to risk causing serious injury to another player. As hits like this become more rare, players become less aware of the threat and thus are more likely to expose themselves to a predatory hit. There, unfortunately, are a handful of players remaining in the league (the Trouba, Gudas, Cernak types) who have no regard or respect for the well-being of their opponents. The game is dangerous enough. The additional thrills that come with the occasional fight or predatory hit are simply no longer worth the long-term negative outcomes on player health.

I feel the same way about the Bruins. I also don't dislike the Leaf players / team. I do dislike the Tampa players / team in general. That said, I'm rooting for Tampa to come out of this group as I think it maximizes off-season disruption among the teams we are trying to catch.

I don't think the phrase "wants to be here" applies only to things like the weather, community spirit, great food or affordable cost of living. When current players say this is where they want to be, I think they are also referencing organizational culture and the opportunity for team and personal success that currently exists on this version of the Sabres. In some cases, that may be primarily what they are referencing. There is probably not a single NHL team who would not take Johnson for free on an entry-level contract. He is the rare young player who has positioned himself where he can pick whatever NHL team / situation he wants to sign with. When he signs, it will be with the team he wants to be with...even if "the team he wants to be with" means the team that presents him with the best professional opportunity (by his assessment).

I still hope Johnson signs with the Sabres. It now seems unlikely though. All he needs to do is wait a few months and he can pick his spot. At this point, if he is not 100% in on the Sabres, then he might as well wait. I don't feel slighted by this. If he does sign with the Sabres it will be because he wants to be here. If he doesn't, it won't mean that Buffalo was 35th on his list behind every NHL franchise and 3 teams in the KHL. It will just mean that he was in the somewhat rare situation of having actual options and he did not find the Sabres to be the best of those. He could have many good reasons, including some that have nothing to do with hockey.

I finally listened as well and my take is pretty much the same as yours. Adams is not going to throw a player under the bus. He is positive by nature. I understand why some want definitive statements such as: "We need to upgrade our defence" or "There is no excuse for us to not be in the playoffs next season". That is just not his personality. For every Mark Messier who guarantees a win in game 6 there is also a Matt Hasselback who says "We want the ball and we're going to score". I think Adams is comfortable in his own skin and with his personal leadership style and he has no interest in pretending to be brash or provocative. Here are some things I did hear Adams say: - we have talked about things to improve like defensive play and special teams - it is good that the players are holding themselves to a higher standard and that they expect to make the playoffs - when it comes to goaltending, [our analytics area] looks deeper [than public data] and we needed to be better than we were in front of UPL at times - we are going to look to get better and are open to anything that moves the needle - the goal is to make the playoffs year after year and to win the Stanley Cup

I think this is fair. I don't object to improving the team in any area and it is certainly the case that there are going to be goaltenders available who are, playing the odds, likely to be better than UPL next year. I just don't agree that UPL should be dismissed outright as a bust.

Sorry, but I see a bit of a contradiction here. We increased our offensive output by 64 goals. Much of that was from young players increasing production (Cozens, Thompson) or being added (Quinn, Peterka). No question that a full season of Tuch made a difference. Considering how young we are, why can't our defence, goaltending and overall team defensive play improve? That said, I'm not convinced we won't make any changes on defence.

Great post with lots of stuff to chew on. I don't agree on UPL. This isn't specifically directed to you, but it seems to me that there is general agreement among people who know hockey, including Sabre fans, that goalies take longer to develop; yet, many Sabre fans are not prepared to apply that sentiment to UPL. I see a young guy with a good base of goaltending skill, raw athletic ability and size who needs to improve in some areas and become more consistent. Considering he has played his 46 NHL games in front of one of the worst defensive teams in the NHL, I don't think his #'s are that terrible. Anyone who follows the NHL knows that outside of the league's best and most consistent goalies, it is common for a goalie's career to be up and down. UPL could easily rebound and be better next season. To discard UPL, unless something of real value is returning, would be a mistake. Regarding New Jersey's defence, it is certainly true that they went out and signed Hamilton as a UFA and traded for Marino, Graves and Seigenthaler. It's also true that they did not have the base of young defencemen that we had in Dahlin, Joker, Sammuelsson and Power. Jersey didn't have any legit top-4 D-men in their pipeline (prior to drafting Hughes and Nemec) and they needed to address their top D pairings through free agency and trade. We simply didn't have the same need. The oldest player in our top-4 D is Joker who turns 24 in June. The youngest of New Jersey's top-4 is Seigenthaler who turns 26 in May. I would have no issue with the Sabres making a move to upgrade any of our D from Joker's position on down (and I do actually think we will make at least one such move), but the fact that we didn't finish where New Jersey did this year, doesn't mean we won't get there. I would not straight up trade our top-4 D for Jersey's.

Isn’t it obvious that we are at the “it’s about now” stage? I get the frustration with the years of losing. It seems to me though that lots of folks want a meaningless sound-bite from the GM or coach. The Sabres are one of 2-3 youngest teams in the league They just had back to back seasons where they increased their points % from .330 to .457 to .555. They missed the playoffs by a regulation win. In what world is it not their goal to make the playoffs? Lots of GMs and coaches make promises and pronouncements. That’s not the style of Adams and Granato. Until the progress stalls or regresses, they have earned the benefit of my doubt.

This is what I think, but I would put Power at just over $8 million AAV and Dahlin under $10. I don’t think Power will go 7 or 8 unless we get him closer on AAV to what a post-bridge deal would be. That said, I won’t be angry with a bridge. The reality with Dahlin’s bridge is that it may well have given us Dahlin for 10-11 years at what might yet prove to be a very reasonable number. A longer term extension likely would have needed to be north of $8 million anyway, and Dahlin would be closer to UFA now than he will be if we sign him long-term this summer. It’s looking to me like what we did with Dahlin was use a bridge contract properly

Adams has stated many times that when he moved into the GM role he committed to staying true to who he is and that he would not try to be someone that he isn’t. He’s been GM long enough now for me to realize that anyone who is eager for a Pierre Dorian-like “the rebuild is over” statement is going to be very disappointed. That is ok by me. Other teams in our division, Ottawa and Detroit, have tried to speed things along with high profile UFA signings and trades. Yet we have moved ahead and stayed ahead. Adams and Co. have made some mistakes, but they clearly have things going in the right direction. I expect the focus and message on Wednesday will be on staying the course, on trusting the process, and on not sacrificing the future for the present. I get that some think this is going too slowly and I understand why. All indications, though, are that we are getting there.

As a neutral observer who has nothing against either team and who likes Dumba as a player, I hated the hit. It was a bit late, but more so than that it was blindside and predatory. Most egregious to me is that, in my view, Pavelski was engaged with and distracted by Hartman who was shadowing/pursuing him. He was likely preparing for Hartman to “finish his check” and did not account for Dumba coming from behind Hartman. It’s exactly the kind of hit that results in the kind of injury that occurred. If the NHL is serious about reducing injuries, and head injuries in particular, then this sort of hit needs to be penalized until it is all but removed from the game.

Compher only became a Compher-like centre this year. This is his first full season with positive possession metrics. His emergence this year likely relates to a combination of becoming more experienced and to moving up in the line-up and having regular higher ability wingers. He is below 50% on the year and career at the dot. I think Thompson’s emergence at centre has moved the Sabres to have Krebs develop into our Compher-like centre. I think he centres line 3 going forward and once he gets some more offensively gifted wingers he will produce 45-50 point seasons, kill penalties, play on PP2, be on the ice late to protect leads and take big face offs and be an all around pain to play against.

I like Jarry. His career #'s are actually a bit better than you indicate. I think .909 was this year's save % and his career mark is actually .914. I think that Jarry as our starter for a couple of years with Levi as the back-up who takes over in 25-26 would be a good situation. I don't think it is realistic though. I don't think the Sabres will be in the market for a goalie. If they are it will likely be for only a 1-2 year term. Jarry is young and will likely want and getter a longer term deal from someone. There also might be a team (Carolina?) that offers a better situation in general for goalies. Also, while I do think Jarry would be a likely upgrade over UPL/Comrie, I'm not sure if it would be as big of an upgrade as their individual #'s suggest. In my view, there is clearly a direct connection between how well teams play defence and goalie statistics. Elite goalies like Saros can overcome bad defence and still produce elite stats. According to Moneypuck, in Jarry's 4 years as an NHL regular the Pens have been 2nd, 9th, 9th and 18th in expected goals against. The Sabres were 26th in expected goals against this year. I don't think Jarry is good enough to overcome how poorly we defend.

Ottawa was paying teams to take Murray. They gave Toronto a 3rd and a 7th and ate 25% of Murray's deal and got nothing back. Nothing. The rumored Sabres deal is that we were getting Murray, with retention, and Ottawa's 1st rd pick (7th) for our 1st (9th). Acquiring Matt Murray was taking a chance on a veteran goalie who was on the scrap heap. He's been as unreliable due to injury and has performed at a lower level than Anderson. Murray would not have been what I would call a "major acquisition" personally and nobody would have concluded, as nobody concluded when the Leafs acquired him, that goaltending was now solved.

I would go a step further and say we might go with 3 goalies to start next season. We went with 3 and then 4 goalies for over 2 months to end this season. I'm not predicting this, but I think it is more likely we go with 3 goalies than it is that we bring in a new veteran goalie. Also, I don't see any obvious candidates. On the Athletic's Hockey Show podcast from Friday, they briefly discussed the Sabres and the three writers on the panel agreed that an upgrade at goaltending was needed. One panelist suggested UFA Tristan Jarry; he stated that Jarry at #1 for a couple of years with Levi as a developing #2 would be perfect. The other 2 writers audibly laughed at this and one said: "A Jarry & Levi combo is not what I had in mind". So, people who cover hockey can't agree that a 28 year old UFA with 200+ games of experience and a career .914 save % is a sufficient upgrade for the Sabres. I think you can breakdown good NHL goaltending into two categories. Category #1 is true elite goalies who have proven to be good year over year: Saros, Sorokin, Helebucyk, Shesterkin, Vasilevsky. Category #2 are the teams whose goalies typically thrive (at least in the regular season): Carolina, Boston, NYI, Vegas, Dallas, Toronto, Colorado. There is crossover. All goalies seem to thrive on the Island and goalies like Ullmark and Oettinger are making a case to join the elite category. I doubt we are getting any of the elite goalies. There is no indication any are available or that Adams would be willing to meet the acquisition cost if any were. This leaves the next level. I would be wary of goalies like Fred Andersen or Raanta, who have been good on a team that provides them with impeccable support. The bottom of the goaltending rankings from this past season is littered with guys who were in recent years prominently discussed by some Sabre fans as potential upgrades: Jack Campbell, Ville Husso, Alex Nedelkovic, Thatcher Demko, Kappo Kahkonen, John Gibson. Likewise, the top of the charts includes goalies that were coming off weak seasons and who were far from sure things going to new teams: Samsonov, Georgiev, Korpisalo, Lankinen. I think we need to clean up our own house. Maybe Levi is the elite goalie that solves our issues, but it would be good if we also became a team where goalies thrive.

Agreed. We have lots of good players. I like Quinn with Cozens. I like him with Krebs too. We are in good shape with multiple good options.

I don't think he needs Cozens to be good. Do you?

Mittelstadt will get the Chytil deal I think. Same draft year, similar production. 4-5 years x $4-4.5 million per. Right now he is our 5th best forward. I think he will be on the second line with Cozens next year. Maybe with Quinn or Peterka on the other wing. The last two games of the season we saw a bit of Quinn/Krebs/Peterka. I could see Greenway/Cozen/Mitts as line 2 next year with the kid line, with Krebs for Cozens, as line 3. I think there is a good chance that next year starts with the top 4 forward prospects all staying where they currently are.

Fair enough. I think it is possible, but the likelihood of it happening starts to breakdown when you dig deeper. Consider that Adams has yet to make such a move at any position, that he has made clear he is committed to not blocking young players, that there really are very few goalie options that make sense from a term/AAV/acquisition-cost standpoint and that are also a clear upgrade, and it seems like a long-shot to me. Regardless, what started me in this discussion was the notion that the Sabres starting Levi in game 82 was a sign the organization has already decided to move on from Comrie and UPL. I just think that is wishful thinking on the part of people who have made up their mind that a change is required.