Archie Lee

It was an over-compensation to the first 3 years of drafting under Adams, where they picked 21 forwards, only 5 d-men, and 1 goalie.

Lankinen is the only “back-up” goalie I can think of who signed that level of contract. The other goalies who are back-ups and make UPL or better money, are guys whose games have fallen apart (Grubauer, Merzlikins, Jarry). Maybe Lankinen’s deal is an indication of where back-up goalie salaries are headed with an increasing cap. a 4.75 AAV is still a little rich for a back-up though, I think.

I don’t think the evidence supports this. They traded one of their best players for Levi. Then they gave Levi two chances to run with an NHL job, much earlier than pretty much any other NHL team would have. Comrie, Lyon, Georgiev, and Ellis are all small goalies by NHL standards. So are recent draft picks Ratzlaff and Leenders. UPL’s 2023-24 season dwarfs anything Levi has done in his career; perhaps it didn’t justify the contract, but it would have been some kind of weird if UPL didn’t get an opportunity to be the starter last year. And, all indications are that Lyon is now the starter.

4-1-2 in 7 games is good. Repeat that over the next 7 and they will have 20 points in 17 games; that is a pace for 96.5 points. But, on the loser point thing, I think the past criticism is that they too often did not find a way to squeeze a point out of a game where it looked like they would get none. The last two games are more of the opposite: failing to get a 2nd point by giving up the lead in the last 6 minutes of the third.

Context and nuance are not for everyone. Agreed though, now is not the time to worry about feelings and futures..

I acknowledge that what follows is presented “in defence of UPL”. Not as a blanket defence, though. I’ve clearly seen, as we all have, that his game has fallen apart since Dec/Jan of last season. What remains to be seen, for me anyway, is whether the game in Toronto is a new season one-off or an extension of last year. Can he get his game back? Anyway, here goes (all GSAx stats from MoneyPuck): - Since 20-21, the year UPL first played an NHL game, he has played in 156 games, that’s about 38% of “goalie games” by a Sabre goalie in that period (not just games started, but any appearance). UPL has played the most of any goalie. - In that time, Sabre goalies are -45.9 in GSAx, or they have given up 46 more goals than expected. UPL is -8.1, or 8 more goals than expected. So, on balance he has outplayed the field. - For some context, in Eric Comrie’s time in Buffalo, he had an GSAx of -9.8, while in his time in Winnipeg the year before coming to Buffalo and the last two years, he is a combined +15.1 - Further context. In Ullmark’s Sabre career (going back long before UPL debuted), he was a combined -29.1 in 117 games. Since he left Buffalo he is +73.3 None of this is a reason to play UPL now. The goalie playing the best needs to be in the net.

It’s very poor. But we probably shouldn’t expect Lyon, whose record behind this team is 3-4, to continue to give us Vézina-level Ryan Miller play, either. The point is simply that it is early.

It’s real early in the year, probably too early to draw conclusions on anything. For some perspective though, two goalies who burst out last year as young #1s, are Sam Montembeault in Montreal and Dustin Wolf in Calgary. Per MoneyPuck, they finished +25.6 and +11.9 in GSAx last year. They were big factors in their teams either making the playoffs or hanging in the race longer than anticipated. Through the first two weeks of this season, they are at the bottom with GSAx of -6.3 and -5.1 respectively.

The Sabres have 5 skaters on their current 23 man roster (Bryson, Metsa, Dunne, Geertsen, Östlund) who can be waived/sent to Rochester, as the injured get healthy. I guess you could say it’s 4 skaters, as one of Bryson or Metsa stays as the 7th D. So, they pretty much need everyone back, including Norris, and keep everyone else healthy, before they would need to make a tough decision. As Lyon has never started more than 44 games in an NHL season, it’s quite possible we will need another goalie to step up for a stretch or two. Keeping multiple options, at least for now, seems prudent (I’m assuming no team is trading us a 3rd line C for UPL right now; if the Flyers want to give us Noah Cates, then do it). UPL’s best season kinda came out of nowhere after Levi faltered and Comrie was injured. Hopefully Lyon just stays healthy and rolls, but I don’t hate having UPL around for the if or when.

UPL did have a very good stretch from the start of 23-24 through last November (67 starts, 35 wins, .910 save%, 2.50 GAA, 6 shutouts). But, it is now 11 months since he has been good. If he doesn't turn it around soon, he will be our Cal Peterson. Georgiev is only 2 seasons removed winning 40 games with a .919 save %, and nobody thinks he will be a good NHL goalie again. Things can go south quickly. Lyon is clearly the #1 right now. It's not a season for dinking around.

We are in the same spot with Kekalainen as we were with Ruff a year ago. Every move seen as positive by the fanbase and every move that seems to be working out, is credited to the influence of Ruff, and now Kekalainen. That is, until it doesn’t work out, in which case it’s Adams (see: adding Malenstyn and Lafferty are clearly Ruff’s influence, quickly becoming Adams is a fool). I’m not defending Adams, but he is not batting .000 when it comes to roster moves.

Two fun games in a row. Sticking up for each other. Timely goals and saves. Would be nice to get over DeLuca .500 and then grab some cushion.

I think Adams has, in the big picture, done a real poor job managing assets. I think if the Sabres dumped UPL now though, because the journeyman backup they signed has had a good two weeks, and because the rookie they claimed on waivers had a good first NHL start, it would be some kind of next level reckless mismanagement. I’m not predicting anything, but the injuries they have do mean that they have room for 3 goalies right now. Seeing how they all perform for a couple more weeks makes sense. Now, I can see the argument that this isn’t a plan. Indeed, it is only the terrible management of Levi that has put them in this situation. Levi must be scratching his head in wonder at how he went from being a special goalie who doesn’t need AHL time, to now, apparently, not even being usable in an “in emergency, break glass” situation. I mean, chances always were that UPL or Lyon would at some point get hurt, or falter. Apparently the plan in that moment was to scramble and do anything and everything to not put Levi in the NHL.

I think with all the players on IR, recalling UPL actually puts them at a full 23 man roster. That includes Zucker, who might be going to IR also, and Geertsen.

Here’s the thing with goalies: a game, a week, a month, even a season, won’t prove much. Outside of a select battle-tested few, you won’t know what you are getting; a stud today will be a dud tomorrow. And even the good ones aren’t always good (see Swayman and Saros a year ago, as just two examples). So, trading UPL because Lyon has had a nice start to the year and Ellis looked good in his first game, might be foolish. It could also prove smart as we don’t know what UPL is going to do either. The two teams I could see having the most interest in UPL are Philadelphia and Carolina.