Marvin

How was the team chemistry last year? I am wondering if there are any patterns to the acquisitions to try and get over the 1st round hump.

First, please explain your last sentence because I have no idea what you are talking about. (If it helps you any, my college experience is like the early episodes of "The Big Bang Theory". So everyone else might get it, but I sure as heck don't.) Kane and O'Reilly are already gone. Maybe they should have been kept instead of Zemgus and Larry, but it's too late now. The question should be what should be done with Zemgus and Larry. You correctly perceive that the Sabres became worse because of the Kane trade and especially the O'Reilly trade. (Aside: I would argue that moving Kane was better for the long-run, but we are years away from testing that hypothesis. Obviously, the fleecing from the O'Reilly trade pissed virtually all of us off.) However, I think that not holding on to Zemgus and Larry just compounds the offence. I don't see anyone (and I mean anyone) available in FA for their cost who could do their jobs half as well as they do. Like it or not, if you don't hold on to them now, we only know of 1 line capable of clearing the zone on the roster. And if you let these guys go, you look like you are guaranteeing spots to two of Remi Elie, Tage Thompson, and Vladimir Sobotka. Please explain to me why this is better.

Like Commissioner James Gordon in the 1967 Batman movie, I have a thought so terrible that I daren't give it utterance. Even worse than Mittlestadt and Turris. "Holy nightmare!"

I have to ask -- did anyone questioning why Girgensons and Larsson were good for the team last year actually watch the games? Besides Skinner-Eichel-Reinhart, Girgensons-Larsson-Berglund/Rodrigues/Okposo was the only other line that could get out of the D-Zone with anything that vaguely approached regularity. Last year, Zemgus and Larry had 84.7% and 84.4% DZS respectively. The number of times a player has had a less favourable split since the lockout is 3 - #1 and 2 are Paul Gaustad in Nashville; #3 was Manny Malhotra in Vancouver. They were on every PK and had no PP time except when changing at the end of the 2nd shift. Moreover, they drove the top lines in the league bonkers. They were tenacious checkers and hit well. They were always out there when the Sabres were trying to protect a lead. What more do you want out of your 4th line?

As we had 2 lines worse than his all last year, I need to see the Sabres have 4 functioning lines before I get this nonchalant about Zemgus. (And Larry, for that matter.) Besides, his presence is a roster spot that does not go to Sobotka.

Dzingel and Bjugstad are the only 2 I think are reasonable ideas from the outside. Boyle could work if we just need a competent NHL-level presence. Either that or we try something like Skinner-Mittlestadt-Reinhart Olofsson-Eichel-Vesey Sheary-Asplund-Rodrigues Girgensons-Larsson-Okposo Wilson-Smith-Nylander Elie-Sobotka-Thompson I think this is 4 competent NHL lines that can makes the playoffs if the can stay healthy, but the margin is slim.

A man to light the way -- with advanced stats.

Please, God, no white skates. Have a look at the 1974-5 Crapitals and the 1972-3 Meals. Just ghastly.

I liked Okposo with Larsson and Girgensons. They drove Pastrnak-Bergeron-Marchand nuts in Boston. If they do that kind of work against the top line in the game on the road, I can live with their low scoring numbers in the 80% DZS. JMO.

I call the mentality of, "yeah, but I can turn __________ around" the "Mighty Mouse Syndrome" -- "Here I come to save the day!" The narcissistic egomania you need to be a coach makes this thought process ubiquitous.

@LTS@triumph_communes Thanks for the points of view. As you both said, we don't see things the same way and don't have the same perception of what was correct for JBot to do. I see that we are getting on @spndnchz's nerves, so I will just say it was a nice discussion and that you both gave me some extra food for thought.

Thank you very much. And thank you for your civility and thoughtfulness. I don't believe that Pegula required Botterill to "win now" last year. However, I believe that when the team proved that they could play with anyone and then had a 10 game regulation unbeaten streak, then he should have reset his expectations and adapt. I firmly believe that he owed it to the players, the coach, the fans, and the rest of the franchise to do so. Among other things, it makes the players more likely to do that little extra in practises to improve and grow, make them more committed in games to digging a little deeper, and instills more confidence in them. That makes for 3 obvious options: 1. A late 1st for a decent centre to allow the youngsters to experience positive re-enforcement seems obvious to me. That was the price put on Eric Staal, among others. 2. Reshuffling who was in the NHL to get 4 lines working where none of them get caved in every single time they hit the ice. 3. Trades on the order of a 7th for Tsyplakov to get to 4 passable lines. In any event, that press conference where he undermined his dressing room by saying that their good play was a mirage was a BAD, BAD, BAD idea. I have been in very bad management situations. I can fully empathise with what you are saying. I also assume that a lot of things happen for reasons that are not immediately apparent. In particular, I think that the Pegulas are less knowledgeable, less sophisticated, and more, um, naively enthusiastic than virtually everyone who has ever posted on this site with hockey strategy, tactics, and management. Thus, I think JBot's job is harder than it should be. My problem with JBot is that his messages, which I like, are often contradicted by his actions. First, where his message jives with his actions: he clearly has emphasised improving from the ground up and is executing that plan fairly well. I need to see if he changes the mix of player types, skills, etc. to adapt to what he has seen in two years. So far, his drafting and signings of non-NHL players has been very good. However... A meritocracy requires discipline and making tough decisions. That means that even people you like have to be canned, demoted, etc. if they are either a performance problem (Sobotka, Thompson) or an attitude problem (Sobotka again) because they make your team worse. By midseason, he and Housley had to face facts and replace Thompson and Sobotka with competent NHLers, even if it necessitates a revolving door from Rochester to try people out. I can't think of even a plausible-if-bad reason for them to have been on the team past 1/1/2019. The results? Keeping clearly incompetent players on the big club undermines any "culture change" JBot et al. are purporting to make. This was the second year that JBot made it impossible for Housley to ice 4 competent NHL lines, even by accident. This makes any long-term positive goal harder to achieve or at least delays it because he sent a message to the core players that it is OK to waste a substantial part of their careers. If you want to pin the terrible roster completely on Housley, that's fine. I just think that's impossible. He scratched Tage Thompson a lot early in the season. I don't know how much more loudly Housley could have said, "Tage isn't ready, Jason," without going public. And if you think that Housley was OK with only two lines that could clear the zone, that's fine, but I don't know of a coach who doesn't belong at 400 Forest who wants to set himself up to lose. And if Housley needed to go to Arkham, then replace him with someone who went through The System of Doctor Tarr and Professor Fether You are welcome. And thank you for your civility and thoughtful answers. 1. I will take your word for it. I have interpreted his exact same words differently. 2. If JBot did not want us to think of Thompson as an ROR replacement, then he played his hand almost as badly as possible. Having him in Buffalo all year undermined his development and put him into an impossible situation. Then, when it was immediately obvious that he did not belong, forcing him to stay up here just exacerbated the situation. I should be clear here: I want Thompson to succeed. I believe that the way JBot has handled him could screw him up the way Zemgus, Larry, Risto, et al. were undermined by the tank and by being in the NHL too soon. And if this keeps up, he won't even end up being that good. 3-4. As I said above, the very least he could have done was got to Skinner-Eichel-Reinhart followed by a trio of 4th lines who would be no worse than 45-55 zone time. A #2C from a bottom-feeder was preferable, mind you, but this variation does not mortgage the future for the benefit of the present. In the 1999-2000 season, the spiral was arrested after Darcy traded a 7th for Vladimir Tsyplakov. The team was noticeably better the second he hit the ice -- particularly Mike Peca. From my angle, you appear to put 100% of the blame last year on Housley. I can't do that. Because of the experience I have as in management and my analyses of the team, I believe Botterill should take a majority of the blame. ASIDE: How obvious was it that Sobotka was bad? Have a look at these. They are why I am impatient to get rid of him. @Randall Flagg Please teach me how to be as erudite as you are.

FYI: I believe Krueger was contractually obligated to stay in Southampton. I think there is strong evidence for this as well. Several things: The final roster, who belongs in the NHL and who does not, is in the hands of the GM. The game-to-game roster is in the hands of the coach. They should communicate, but that is the traditional division of labour and I see no reason to believe Botterill and Housley were any different. When the GM has incontrovertible proof that a player is underperforming or undermining the team, it is his job to move said player off the team, whether it be to the minors or the KHL. And if Housley overplays Sobotka, it is Botterill's job to get him out of the locker room. Period. I view Sobotka's mere presence in the media guide at the start of training camp as rank incompetence, no if's, and's, or but's. If Tage Thompson is the only person in the league whose analytics are in the same neighbourhood as Sobotka's, it is Botterill's job to send him down immediately. Even when people were reporting that Sobotka was terrible in training camp, I read several reporters' articles that said that Sobotka, Thompson, and Berglund were staying here for the year, period. I wish I could recall who listed all of them on the team while jokingly putting Eichel, Reinhart, and Skinner in Rochester just to make sure the point got across because I swore out loud at work when I read it. Then I showed the article to everyone and then they swore together. The inference we all drew was this was so that he could justify the O'Reilly trade; to whom is beyond me. Let us look at their records at various points in the season: 11/27/2018 (last game of streak): 17-6-2 12/22/2018 (last game before Christmas Break): 21-11-5 1/18/2019 (Last game before All-Star Break): 24-18-6 2/23/2019 (Last game before TDL; Montour acquired): 29-24-8 3/5/2019 (Day of Botterill's interview): 30-28-9 4/2/2019 (Before last 2 games): 31-39-10 You can see the team getting progressively worse as the season goes on. Why can't Botterill's inertia take any of the blame? I personally believe that, "good teams find a way to win; bad teams find a way to lose." I don't believe that a team can have a 10 game regulation unbeaten streak by accident. Blame the 1972-3 Sabres' October for that. Montour was added, which I did like. Why could we not have traded with a bottom feeder at the time, like St. Louis or Minnesota? Why not trade a late 1st for 1 year of a clear 2C or even a high-end 3C before we fell out of 8th? The message that sends your team is that you believe in them and maybe they keep it up; they certainly don't crash and burn like they did in March. In St. Louis's case, their GM was ready to pack it in. If we had offered that for someone like Tyler Bozak or even Alex Steen (clear overpayment), they might have folded even if they all sing "Gloria." After JBot's terrible press conference, the team didn't quit on Housley - they quit on Botterill because Botterill had already quit on them. They didn't believe in themselves anymore because Botterill never believed in them in the first place. Exactly how the **** could any coach pull them out of the funk then? That, bluntly, is bad management. Then why didn't Tage disappear? IMHO, because Tage is supposed to replace and surpass Ryan O'Reilly. Why didn't Sobotka disappear? IMHO, because Sobotka is supposed to replace and surpass Ryan O'Reilly until Tage is ready. I largely agree with you with Krueger. IMHO, though, unless Mittlestadt's wingers were Skinner and Reinhart, he was necessarily going to be excessively sheltered because he really wasn't ready for that level of responsibility. That would put Eichel with Rodrigues and either Sheary or Pominville. (Please, God, Forgive me for typing this.) Unless, of course, the best course was for Housley to have Eichel with Thompson and Sobotka to protect the rest of the team. Note: the "smoke signals" are based on my presumption that the WGR hosts and guests are softening us up for what JBot will do before training camp. If I am reading the smoke signals properly, Vesey is here for Eichel's wing. Assuming that Girgensons and Larsson are here, you need to have Okposo with them because that is the only line where he was truly effective last year and, frankly, we are stuck with him. Honestly, if they don't need to have 80% DZS to protect the middle 6, I bet they total 40 goals. (On the other hand, the smoke signals look like they are gone and Sobotka is staying.) I agree with Oloffson with Eichel. I think those two will have great chemistry. I will assume you mean that Mittlestadt will be the #2 offencive centre because, IMHO, a centre who needs to be sheltered is not a #2. In sum: Housley earnt his firing. Even if the GM saddles you with Thompson and Sobotka, you don't have to dress them if you have 8 defencemen available. Even if you have to dress them, there is no excuse in the universe for Sobotka being 4th among the forwards in ice time until Bill Hoppe, John Vogl, and everyone else write those scathing analyses of Sobotka. He should not have given hours of ice time to the Scandella-Ristolainen pairing. In particular, I can't think of a good reason to play Scandella over Pilut. We also learnt that to run Housley's system, you need either 6 Norris-calibre defencemen and/or a Vezina-calibre goaltender and/or 4 complete lines of quality depth (2005-6 Sabres level). This killed Lindy Ruff in Dallas, Housley here, Toronto under Babcock, and Nashville in some of their playoff series over the years. In fact, the more I have analysed their system, the more I lean towards "and". And I LIKED the way the team looked when they executed his system well. Even so, I put about 2/3 of the blame this year on Botterill. IMHO, he was an incompetent manager by failing to help his subordinates when they clearly needed a psychological push. He then undermined them with his press conference on 5 March. Even if I forgive him the O'Reilly trade, he failed last off-season by gifting positions to Sobotka and Thompson. He also failed last off-season by not having a back-up plan in case Mittlestadt was not ready for #2C. He also failed in-season as a GM by failing to address clear personnel deficiencies in Thompson and Sobotka. He failed as an overall GM by never getting a competent #2C and by never having 12 NHL-quality forwards available for Housley to dress the entire season. IMHO, if he just does this, which is the bare minimum we should expect from him, the Sabres make the playoffs last season anyway. I would have had patience if he had done either this or traded for a #2C and the Sabres still missed the playoffs. But RHIP. Assuming no disasters, the bare minimum I expect out of this team is the playoffs. I believe that the expectations for this team this year should be like the Leafs 2 years ago. Nothing less is acceptable. Failing that, Botterill should be canned.

Good for all of you on how you for taking the extra time to do this for your children. I am also glad that USAH is doing its part as well. As an addendum, I spoke with several friends of mine who officiate various children's and beer leagues around the country. They told me there has been and will be more extra training and such for officials this year to keep the games safe, in part over the liability issue.

I will accept your premise and analyse it. You will find that I am strong believer in negative inference. I. In a meritocracy, when you find out at the All-Star break, that the two guys on the roster that you acquired from an unpopular trade are literally the two worst players (not just forwards, but players) in the league in numerous statistical analyses, do you leave them around in the status quo,? II. As a good manager, when your subordinates suddenly start wildly exceeding expectations, do you do nothing as they start to slide and justify it by saying that their good performance was a mirage? III. In a meritocracy, when you have two lines in the NHL who regularly can not clear the zone for minutes on end, do you just tell your better performers in the AHL that there is no reason for them to think they could help in the NHL by doing nothing? IV. As a good GM, when your coach is giving the worst player in the league -- whom you acquired -- the 4th most minutes, do you not do anything even when a flurry of news articles and blogs point out how badly he is playing at the expense of better performers? V. As a good manager, do you blame your subordinates for all of the shortcomings your team had for the business year when you did nothing to help them when the situation was worsening? Now, let us look at your line-up from another thread. Because of what transpired and failed to transpire last season and so far this offseason, I will ice lines that reflect what I think is the reality. Forwards Skinner-Eichel-Vesey Rodrigues-Mittelstadt-Reinhart Shear-Sobotka-Thompson Girgensons-Larsson-Okposo Olofsson-Ruotsalainen-Nylander Elie-Smith-Wilson Defence Dahlin-Montour McCabe-Miller Scandella-Ristolainen Pilut-Nelson Hunwick-Bogosian Borgen-Fitzgerald IMHO, it would be somewhere between intellectually dishonest and delusional to assume that Sobotka and Thompson will not be on the Sabres all year unless there is incontrovertible evidence otherwise. Neither were good enough last year; yet everyone at training camp knew they would be here for the year. If you think I am wrong, I suggest you take up the same challenge that several professional hockey people took up with my friends and relatives to defend Botterill: I expect a proof with the Paul Erdos level of accuracy to justify their places on the team last year using EXACTLY your arguments of a meritocracy with OBJECTIVE measurements -- no feelings, rationalisations, or anything subjective allowed. If you have trouble writing proofs, I suggest you go the two-column, statement-reason format. (Hint: they all lost and now argue my point of view.) Yes, this is very arrogant of me. I have a long track record debating this stuff in public that you might know about. A few of the better known from which you can identify me with absolute certainty: Countering Viacom/Nickelodeon trolls defences of Dan Schneider and his production teams against rumoured accusations from the casts. Arguing that Rose Tyler is a Mary Sue / Gary Stu for Russell T. Davies from the crush he had on Tom Baker; based upon the wish-fulfilment-romance fiction he wrote for the fanzine The Annals of Sarah Jane Smith. Debating that Donald Trump's flaws are just Bill Clinton's writ large on numerous political fora. ("Writ large" is what gives me away.) Being the only person in 1987 who argued that ST:TNG is inferior to the original Star Trek. Arguing that everyone who admits they are from Buffalo is not intrinsically a loser who deserves to be unemployed an homeless. Several regulars got me kicked out of the Columbus (Ohio) Bridge Center for this. And they wondered why I wouldn't go back after these people had allegedly calmed down. If you want to debate, all I can say is, "come and get me."

Intellectually, I can see your points. However: 1. The Blues also changed goaltenders as well as coaches. 2. I said last year that Botterill would get a 2C if that turned out to be an issue. 3. I believed Botterill last year when he said the line-up would be a meritocracy. 4. Botterill's press conferences where he tried to justify his inertia showed an inflexibility to changing circumstances, a lack of imagination, and an ignorance of facts in the players' current mental and physical dispositions. 5. I believe that had Botterill done a minimally competent job last season, then the Sabres would have made the playoffs. Period. This is an exceptionally low standard. Hence, my standard for this year is that the expectations for the Sabres should match any of the playoff locks AND that the quality of the roster post 7/1 should be comparable if slightly behind those who should be their peers, whence the following justify skepticism, distrust, and impatience: A. The lack of a clear #2C from the standard of a playoff team. B. The lack of a #3C who is capable of filling the #2C role for a team that wins a playoff series. C. No proof that Tage Thompson will be in Rochester ALL season. D. No proof that Vladimir Sobotka will not be in the organisation before training camp. These are the absolute bare minimum I expect from the roster NOW. I expect him to improve the roster from THAT level. Anything less means the off-season has been a failure. As of now, it is an abject failure.

The NHL and NFL should be looking at each other's legal Trials and Tribble-ations on the concussion issue and respond proactively whenever the next concussion issue turns up. The NHL has a contractual agreement with the CHL that directly affects who may get an opportunity to play in the NHL. As such, NHL precedents in how, say, Chris Pronger's and Claude Lemieux's antics are dealt with set an example for the entire Canadian Junior System and therefore all of junior hockey in North America. IMHO, the NHL has a clear if indirect responsibility because it had treated Scott Stevens's "kill shots" to be as innocuous as James T. Kirk opening the overhead grain bin. They should accept it and work with it. They need to go MUCH farther than the NFL has done with Pop Warner.

I know why I am impatient. Simply, I don't trust JBot's abilities to objectively evaluate the roster, identify NHL quality talent, or jettison the worst deadweight. JBot has now had one calendar year to find a #2C. Last season, he preferred squandering a 10 game winning streak over a draft pick. He has not demonstrated the foresight to account for the possibility that Casey Mittlestadt is not ready to shoulder heavy line-up responsibilities. During last year's training camp, people here reported that John Vogl said that he knew that Tage Thompson would be in the line-up opening night in spite of all evidence that he needed to be in Rochester. He has never found a reason let alone a method to get Vladimir Sobotka off the Sabres. Until I have evidence that he will ice a roster with 4 complete forward lines of NHL-level players, even by accident (...and Skinner-Eichel-Reinhart followed three lines with the talent levels of Mair-Gaustad-Kaleta, Peters-Novotny-Ryan, and Bartovic-Taylor-Botterill would be minimally passable...), I will assume that he is fine with next season's roster looking a lot like last season's roster.

After turning off the radio, I am feeling nostalgic. If JBot doesn't get a #2C before the season starts, it will be time to break out that old school chant, "OOH! AHH! Sabres on the golf course!"

The Buffalo Sabres have improved the defence and depth. Aside: I had to stop listening to WGR -- its net quality of hockey discussion by its afternoon hosts has been inferior to the aggregate quality of hockey discussion by GM Daniel King on his PowerplayChess YouTube channel - none.

It could be worse. If the hosts and many of the guests today on WGR had their way, the line-up could just be adding depth wingers to: Vesey - Eichel - Nylander Skinner - Mittlestadt - Reinhart Olofsson - Rodrigues - Sheary Thompson - Sobotka - Okposo Elie - Asplund - Smith Many of the guests today thought that Eichel could elevate Nylander and Vesey to 25G players, whence Skinner and Reinhart could make an effective second line with Mittlestadt. PHam thinks that Sobotka is better than Girgensons and Larsson. Schopp thinks that last year's 4th liners were the problem and not 2C. Others on WGR think that Thompson on Eichel's wing would score over 20 next year. Several people working with the station today seemed to imply that the above forward lines should make the playoffs. Their love of Sobotka and Thompson that makes me wonder how many of these guys has more access than the let on. No one with any objectivity who believes in Multivariate Statistics, RDBMS querying, and NoSQL databases should believe those 2 should be anywhere near the Sabres. On the other hand, JBot clearly thinks they belong in the Opening Night line-up.

Funny coincidence: a guest on The Instigators mooted the possibility that none of the players will get offer sheets and that multiple players would be at an impasse well into September with Aho as the expected poster boy for this. Oops.

I think Vesey is the winger for Jack. Assuming that the Sabres get a true stop-gap #2 Centre: Skinner - Eichel - Vesey Rodrigues - 2C - Reinhart Sheary - Mittlestadt - Olofsson Girgensons - Larsson - Okposo Ruotsalainen - Asplund - Smith I have a fear that he thinks that Sobotka and Thompson belong in the top 9...

You are welcome. I am very disappointed that the Sabres were not the team to do this with Aho; Carolina is an easier read than Tampa Bay for Point. I would bet a huge amount of money that the battle will be escrow versus signing bonus and will wipe out 1/2 the season.