GASabresIUFAN
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Posts posted by GASabresIUFAN
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Moulson scores 30
I go and agree with you about RIsto and you post this. :o
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First, no our defense isn't good enough.
Second, my D is good enough ask your mom
Third, come on now. Kulikov has literally played 0 minutes for us and we are writing him off? Let's see what he's got. If he can be the shutdown guy with Risto our defense isn't bad off. That means Bogosian and McCabe can stay on the 2nd unit where they should be. If 2-3 years from now Ghule progresses right then maybe we can add him to the mix. Let's give Kulikov a chance.
I think suggesting he'll be gone after this season saving is cap space is extremely premature. If you're premature, your D is not good enough.
Further, what kids are there to earn 3 slots on defense? I'll give ya Ghule, who else?
I'm not writing off Kulikov. I'm just saying he is a lefty version of Bogo and nothing more. That doesn't mean he isn't going to be a decent player for us, it just means don't expect a sudden improvement into a 1st line D. The guy has played 7 NHL seasons and pretty much each of the seasons is very similar with his offense shrinking as he lost PP time to Campbell and Ekblad. Pencil in 20 points and 21 minutes a night and we shouldn't expect more then that in Buffalo.
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I agree that this group isn't a championship group and we are stuck with Bogo for the time being (4 more years at 5.143). What I also don't like about the group is that out of our current top 6, I feel only Risto and McCabe have upside potential. Bogo, 26, and Kulikov, 25, to me are basically the same player. Solid 2nd line NHL D who are what they are. They still in their prime, skate OK, the are somewhat physical, and can add some O (Bogo more then Kulikov). Both are serviceable, but I don't want to rely on either to play top line minutes. I feel the other 2, Gorges and Franson are diminishing assets.
On the bright side Kulikov and Franson's deals are up at the end of this season ($7.658) savings and Gorges could be lost to expansion (another 3.9). This could lead to 11.559 mill being available for D upgrades as soon as next year. The question is whether GMTM would be willing to let some kids earn 2 of those 3 slots. One other piece of bad news is that the only real good UFA next year is Shattenkirk. Can you imagine the bidding war for him?
My next question is how do we improve the team this year other then hoping GMTM and DD give Nelson a legit shot at beating out Franson?
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It depends what Bylsma meant by 13th forward. If he meant it in the literal sense of 45 press box games and another 30 getting 6 minutes, then Rochester is the clear choice. But I'd like to imagine he simply meant we need an additional forward to carry and where in the lineup that player plays is dependent upon who it is.
That will depend on how GMTM and DD use the 4th line. If they plan to roll 4 lines and expect a reasonable amount of offense from that line, then I think they'll be willing to allow a kid to earn the 3rd or 4th line RW job over Gionta snd Deslauriers thereby demoting Nick to the pressbox. However if they want to run the Larsson line as the third line and only use the 4th line as a energy and checking line, then the kids are going down to Roch and the 13th forward will be a vet of some kind.
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Baptiste is in that conversation as well. He is putting up points and has the speed that DB likes.
Would you rather play Baptiste as a 13th forward in Buffalo or skating top 2 line minutes in Roch?
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Well, I think it's hard to separate the two, as potential for breaking out is dependent upon opportunity, which is dependent upon lineups...and here we are :)
This is correct to a certain extent, but once a player is on the roster, I think anything can happen. McGinn going into camp looked like our 3rd line LW at best heading into the season. However, he worked his way up the lineup, (as Moulson worked his way down) and he became a very effective top 2 line player for us and later Ana. I'd even argue he was our breakout player last year other then Risto, and that is what I'm looking for in this thread; a vet, even young vet, who takes a leap in play beyond our expectations.
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Grant and Schneider making a push for that 13th forward slot so far in camp. Grant may be the leader after his great game last night.
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I'm not worried about the offense. I'm not even that worried about Lehner in net other then whether or not he can stay healthy.
No, my biggest worry heading into the season is our defense. Our Risto discussion and the players' Corsi numbers (amongst other analytics) makes me wonder if our defense is good enough for a contending team.
The acquisition of Kulikov is very interesting. His Corsi last year on a good Fla team was only 46 down from over 50 the 3 previous seasons. His 46 is par for the course for the Sabres D from last year. McCabe is the returning leader at 47.4.
For this team to take the next step forward our D possession numbers need to improve and improve dramatically. However all our D have some warts.
1) Risto, still unsigned, Corsi was 45. He only had 1 goal and 9 assists after Jan.
2) Kulikov - offense slipped over the last 4 years and last year his Corsi fell significantly.
3) Bogosian - Terrible 1st half after missing 20 games with injury. Rebounded to have his best offensive season in years, but possessions numbers so far in Buffalo below his mediocre numbers in Atl/Wpg.
4) McCabe added PT and scoring as season progressed. Most optimistic about him for this season, but still young and unproven in a bigger role.
5) Gorges aging slow D whose possession numbers are slipping as is his PT.
6) Franson - alleged puck mover and offensive D who added little O, not much D and can't skate. Other then that he's great.
The projected 3rd pairing of Franson and Gorges scares the crap out of me. They might be our Achilles heal even if we get solid work out of the top 4.
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McKenzie's actual tweets:
ANA/BUF using Morgan Rielly (6 x $5M) and Seth Jones (6 x $5.4M) as comparables for Ristolainen/Lindholm. Clubs want them in that range.
Ristolainen/Lindholm are pointing to Aaron Ekblad (8 x $7.5M) and not saying they expect exactly that, but are aiming for $6M+, $6.5M maybe.
That is a battle Risto is going to lose and Lindholm might win or get close to winning.
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He certainly had a good pre-season game.
Edit: Just watched the NHLnetwork 1hr version of the game. Grant is big and looks to have good hands. He looked good with Baptiste and Fasching. That should be a very good line in Roch this season.
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This is the same kind of thinking that had ROR playing the wall in Colorado.
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Something will get done because both sides ultimately want it to get done. That's the good news. The bad news is that the longer this drags out the worse it is for both Risto and the Sabres.
One other note, not to add to much fuel to the fire, but those of us who think Risto has much work to do on the D side of the game aren't ignoring the competition he played against or the minutes he played. My point and I think others agree is that he was thrust into that role that he wasn't completely ready for because honestly we had no one else even close to able to fill that role and still don't unless Kulikov steps up and McCabe also improves dramatically. That doesn't mean he is a Norris contender or a No. 1 on a championship team, but he is the best we have. Think about it. If Risto was on the Blackhawks where would he play? At best he'd be their 4th best D. What about Ana? Is he better then Lindholm, Vatanen or Fowler. I'd argue he is in Fowler's class as a player right now and inferior to both Lindholm and Vatanen.
I remember when Darcy Regier famously proclaimed that Roy and Connolly were two of the top 25 centers in the NHL because they finished in the top 25 of C scoring. People argued and so did the media that neither would be a top 2 line center on a quality team and history showed that to be the case.
However, Risto's No. 1 status on this team is his best leverage, while his bad second half, RFA status and defensive lapses is GMTM's leverage. Something will get done and we all have to hope that if it is a long-term deal that Risto doesn't become our next version of Tyler Myers. In other words a talented young player with a huge contract that is thrust into a role he isn't suited for or doesn't develop into.
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Omg, how many ways can I say this. Ristolainen played more minutes, against tougher competition, at age 20, then anyone else in the NHL.
Ok, but that doesn't mean he was very effective. Sometimes you get those minutes because the team doesn't have anyone else. Girgensons was once out top line center. Now he might be our 4th line pivot.
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Again, I'm not trying to tear Risto down. I think he is one of our best prospects at D and has the potential to be top-2, again, potential. He's 21 years old.
I struggle with the urgency to crown him the next Bobby Orr ? His play has been very good (NOT great), Ekblad is a year younger and a better player.
You dismiss +/- too quickly. It should give all of us reason to pause and look for more information. If you look at his advanced analytics, they are troublesome as well. His Fenwick and Corsi PER MINUTE numbers are bad, he's ranked 90-100th in league of D-men.
Again, I like Risto.
I think he has a great chance to be top-4 on this team and the "POTENTIAL" to be top-2.
Let's just wait for more evidence
Agree, that's why I'm down to a 2 year bridge deal. Also nice to have another transplant down here in GA.
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PI I agree with you. Risto is far a from even being good in the D zone. If they don't like +/- how about Corsi?
Here are how the other Sabres did last year
Gorges -7, Corsi 44.8
Risto -22, Corsi 45.4, which is a big improvement from 37 the year before
Bogo -11, 46.6
McCabe +6, 47.3
Other comparisons
Vatanen +8, 51.7 - fyi Vatanen played 22 minutes a night and had 38 points, seems like a pretty good comparable to me. Just saying. His deal is 4.875 per for 5 years
Lindhom +7, 57
Fowler -8, 49
Ekblad +18, 51.4
Kulikov +8, 46.8; now you know why they traded him to us and why he shouldn't be on our top pair.
Hanafin -14, 50 and he is only 19 and already better defensively the Risto and is on a similar curve for scoring.
Leddy -9, 50.6 with 40 pts and he is only getting 5.5.
At this point I'm saying prove you can improve defensively to get a long-term deal. 2 yrs 8 mill or 1 yr 3.5.
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His second half play is why the deal isn't done. His agent and he think he is Ekblad and he isn't yet even Vatanen. Maybe the thing for both parties to do is step back do a 2 yr 7.5 to 8 mill deal and move on. If he continues to develop then he'll get big money two years from now and if he doesn't develop his d zone work, then both parties can move on.
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How did this thread become another lineup thread? Do you think a healthy and non-incarcerated Kane gets back to the 30 goal + level playing with Jack and Sam?
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I think Eichel with Okposo would work really well, but I still prefer Eichel and Reinhart for now. I think those two are on another level for offensive zone hockey sense and the only two on the team that can fully equal the other in that regard. O'Reilly and Okposo and special players, but Eichel and Reinhart have that 6th sense in the offensive zone you don't see very often. I love watching them play together.
It's a good point and we certainly saw that at the end of last year as the two played very well together. My rationale for essentially swapping Okposo for Reinhart is that I know Reinhart can also play well with ROR and I'd like to put Okposo with the closest player we have to Tavares. Jack's game reminds me of Tavares with the way he sees the ice, his shot and his willingness to back check. I think people also forget that Ennis is historically as much of a scorer and he is a playmaker. In 2013-15 Ennis scored 41 goals and assisted on 48. Putting two guys who can score with Okposo to take advantage of his excellent passing ability really intrigues me.
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The lineup looks like much as we predicted. I agree that Bailey can beat out Deslauriers, but he isn't dominating in camp yet. I'd also like to see Eichel centering Ennis and Okposo, but knowing DD like we do how likely are any of these lines to last very long?
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What did McCabe show you last year to make you think his capable of being the defensive rock next to Risto? McCabe has some qualities, but defensive stalwart is not one of them.
Actually he was one of our best Pkers last season especially late in the year and had decent possession numbers despite being a rookie and playing along side Bogosian. He was also the top defensive D on both the Amerks and in college.
Also you have to compare his numbers to the other possible partners for Risto. Gorges? He is way to slow to play top line minutes anymore. Kulikov? He is sort of a L shooting version of Bogo. His analytics are signifcantly worse then McCabe's and he is a 7 year veteran. I'd rather take the risk of McCabe because of his excellent skating and high hockey IQ and let him focus on the D side of playing D.
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someone once said their brain hand finally figured out the game, but then their bodies couldn't play anymore. Maybe he figured it out in time
I'm rooting for him. I love for local guys to make the team. I think it's great for local youth hockey because it gives the kids someone to look up to that they might even know. Sort of if he can make it so can I. I'm a little older and grew up in the Amherst Rec leagues and we used to talk about the Brownschidles. Now the kids have Patty Kane of course, but so many other local kids who have done well (Stempniak, Kaleta, Orpik etc..) I'm also rooting for Bailey to make the team for much the same reasons (and because I think he is ready to make an impact in the NHL)
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Given our lack of quality and depth on the back end, yes, I think they can. Especially if he impresses early like he did last year.
Where is the lack of depth. Our top 6 baring injury are Risto, Bogo, McCabe, Kulikov, Gorges and Franson. DD says the only available job is the 7th D. Who are you benching, assuming everyone is healthy to play Guhle?
Maybe I am reading too much into the early pairs in camp.
But I found it odd that McCabe and Franson are paired up and Bogosian and Gorges are not.
We've all assumed Kulikov was brought in to be Risto's partner.
Maybe Bylsma's solution to easing Risto's workload is to strengthen the second pair.
Maybe Risto slides back in with Gorges and Kuli will be playing with Bogo.
I don't think Kulikov is going to be Risto's partner. He isn't defensively responsible enough. We need McCabe to step into that role, like Tallinder did for Myers. I envision a second pairing of Bogo and Kulikov. Two guys with similar games who aren't afraid to lay the lumber with Kulikov being the slightly more responsible D player.
That leaves a very slow pairing of Gorges and Franson. I'm not thrilled with in, especially in today's NHL. However to give either of these guys top 4 minutes would be a mistake. My hope is Nelson so outplays Franson in the pre-season that he earns Franson's job and Cody becomes the 7th D. This would add a good skating puck mover to our 3rd pairing and make the best use of Gorges' professionalism and physical play. While this is my hope, based on DD's comments I noted above, I think this is unlikely.
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I voted Bailey, but I think Guhle is going to get the 9 game look he didn't get last season.
Can the Sabres afford to give Guhle a 9 game look see if they think they are a playoff contender?
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DD said we have two roster spots that are completely wide open and they are 13th forward and 7th D.
I thought that was really interesting. However, if these are the two roster spots that the Sabres are looking to fill in camp, where does that put the possibility of a prospect making the team? The Sabres won't want Bailey ridding the pine in Buffalo when he could be playing top line minutes in Roch. From this, it sounds like guys like Schneider, COR or other mid range vets will get the nod at the forward job. Maybe Bailey will be so good, the Sabres will be comfortable dropping Deslauriers to the 13th slot.
As to the 7th D. Will the Sabres give Nelson a true chance to make the team? I hope so.
Sabres Previews from Around the Net
in The Aud Club
Posted · Edited by GASabresIUFAN
http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/buffalo-sabres-2016-17-nhl-season-preview/
http://www.thehockeynews.com/news/article/thn-s-2016-17-nhl-season-preview-buffalo-sabres
http://sports.yahoo.com/news/puck-daddys-2016-17-nhl-preview-buffalo-sabres-152920065.html
http://thehockeywriters.com/buffalo-sabres-2016-17-season-preview/
http://fansided.com/2016/09/28/nhl-season-preview-2016-17-buffalo-sabres/
http://sabrenoise.com/2016/08/14/buffalo-sabres-2016-17-atlantic-division-preview/
Please post ones you find.