GASabresIUFAN
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Posts posted by GASabresIUFAN
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I don't know if Vesey is going to be a great player or not. However, I found a list of past college free agents and I thought I'd cheer everyone up about the possible upside of such a player.
1) Adam Oates
2) Marty St. Louis
3) Joe Mullen
4) Greg Adams
5) Dave Poulin
6) Joel Otto
7) Jason Blake
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What leverage does Big Z have to get even that big a contract? Other then bolting to Europe he has no leverage. I suggested a 2 year deal of $2.25, but right now I wonder if he'll get that. This is a prove it year for him. If he breaks out he'll have a ton more leverage next off-season.
At his best I think he can beat out Larsson for the 3rd line center role.
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Do you think that the numbers for Moulson, Ennis and Kulikov are generous? I think the numbers are possible, but a little generous. If Moulson or Ennis gets a top 6 slot the number seems possible. Since Ennis is more likely to get a top 6 role and his career high is 21, I'll suggest 20. Moulson is going to be in a bottom 3 role unless something crazy happens in camp. If we get 12 I'll be happy. Kulikov career high is 8. His role maybe more offensive here, but he only had one goal last season. I'd say 5 at the most.
On the other hand, I think Bailey makes the team out of camp and gives us one of those goals without many assists season. I'm think 10 goals is possible. I also think Big Z scores 10.
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Nylander can play either wing. I don't think he is NHL ready either, but a slot on the LW could be available. Lets assume Vesey doesn't sign with us and Kane gets suspended by Gary Bettman, so who are our top 2 LW's at that point? Ennis and Moulson? In that scenario, I think Carrier and Nylander would both get an opportunity to make the team.
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I'd never categorize E.Kane as a sniper. He's a power forward. Five Million gets you 20 goals in today's NHL. Some might argue 15 goals gets you that much. We have way less productive players making just as much (Moulson, Gionta).
While I agree Moulson and Gionta are overpaid, they were paid to begin to change the perception of Buffalo as a destination. However, Kane is grossly overpaid for a sniper or power forward. He hasn't played a full season since the lockout. His points the last 3 years are 41, 22 & 35. As we saw with Okposo's contract, players are getting about $1 million for each 10 pts they score. Based on Kane's performance he should be getting about 3.5 not 5.25. The truth is that unless he gets his act together, there is no way GMTM re-signs him when his deal expires.
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How is trading Kane cutting loses?
In a variety of ways.
1) like in Wpg he is becoming a PR problem for the team. GMTM is very clear he won't tolerate this much longer.
2) His antics may become a cancer in the clubhouse. No evidence of this yet, but......
3) His salary vs. production; we need more then 20 goals from a guy making $5.25 who is supposed to be a sniper. Now that we are are a cap team, If he doesn't produce to his salary, GMTM needs to re-allocate that money. For example, you can give his slot to someone like Nylander, Vesey (if he signs) and free up cap space to improve the D.
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I am not for trading Kane at this point. I'm just pointing out that sometimes assets don't recover their pre-antics value. Sometimes these issues are a sign of greater problems, like a lack of maturity or should we say Athlete Privilege.
If we want to get Kane on the straight and narrow and giving his all on the ice, we might need to follow the Blackhawk's example on how they manage the other childish Kane. My understanding is that the Hawks essentially have a babysitter with Kane during the season (both at home and on the road). This Hawk's employee's job is to keep Patrick out of trouble.
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Sometimes the best move is to cut your loses and move on.
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I keep seeing the Kane to Vancouver rumor. While it makes sense from a Van point or view, but what do they have for us that would make the deal makes even possible. They don't have the cap space to take on his deal without is either taking a contract back and/or us eating part of his deal. They also don't have any assets that I want other then draft picks.
I might consider Kane for Sbisa (to give them cap relief and to upgrade Franson) plus their 1st next yr and a decent prospect. I think dealing him is also dependant on if we sign Vesey and how guys like Vesey, Bailey, Ennis and Moulson look in camp.
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Without looking up the deets, i have to think Montour is a guy the Ducks want to keep around as he is uoung and cpst controlled. That doesnt mean Girgs isn't a good piece to move. I do think trading him now would be foolish as his value couldnt be much lower.
They are desperate for any forwards they can get their hands on. They have only 2 forwards under 29, yet without Montour, they still have 6 NHL D 25 and younger in Fowler, Depres, Lindholm, Vatanen, Manson & Theodore. They seem to be having trading Fowler. At this point, moving the 22 year old Montour maybe their best option to getting some youth into their lineup. Also they still have excellent D prospect Jacob Larsson in the system. How often can you get an NHL roster player for a minor league D?
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Big Z's qualfiying offer is 105% of 835K. He has no leverage except bolting for Europe. Why would GMTM give him substantially more?
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I love thus kid, but his bad offensive year has him in the CDB/GMTM dog house. Now he hasn't signed his qualifying offer.
Is he going to be traded? Is he slated as the 4th line center? Will he even be given a chance to beat out Larsson for the 3rd line center job or compete for the 2nd line wing job? Will he bolt for Europe if he doesn't get more then the qualifying offer from the Sabres? Maybe he isn't even in the Sabres plans at all for this season.
I think this kid has much more upside then Larsson and is already one of the best defensive forwards. He is a hard worker and everyone likes him in the clubhouse. His youth and position utility makes him a valuable asset.
I'd sign him for 2 years at $ amounts of $1 mill for this season and $1.25 for next. This would be an easily traded contract, but show some faith in the kid. I'd also then re-create the line that worked so well two years ago of Moulson, Girgensons and Ennis. Granted they won't be playing 1st line minutes, but I think all 3 would benefit from a comfortable line combo.
If CDB gives him a defined role the kid will blossom, even if it just as the 4th line center. Can you imagine the matchup problems if our 3rd or 4th line is Moulson Girgensons Ennis?
If he doesn't have a future here, what about a trade to Ana for right shot D Brandon Montour who dominated in the AHL last season. I think he could challenge for Franson's job this season and he'd also be exempt from the expansion draft.
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I would like to see him complete school and become FA after August 15th. It's in the CBA, so he deserves the right to maximize his career.
If he can complete 3 years of school this summer. G-d bless him.
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RFA's need to be protected since they are still controlled as long as we give them a qualifying offer.
I'm not sure arbitration would have helped him. For now forwards near or in their prime seem to be getting about $1 mill for each 10 pts they produce. For example Okposo got $6 mill per season after averaging around 62 pts the last 3 years. Boedker signed for $4 mill per season after putting up around 45-50 pts, but doesn't play defense.
Foligno has 18, 19 & 23 pts the last 3 seasons. 2.25 seems appropriate.
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Ok, he's a playa alright, but he does seem to have more problems scoring off the ice then on it lately.
Eichel: 30
Reinhart: 30
Okposo: 25
ROR: 22
Kane: 25
That's 132 of our 250 goal for goals. I'll add 12-15 for Ristolainen. That brings us to 145. Can we get 105 from the rest?
Ennis: ?
Moulson: ?
Bogosian: ?
Larsson: ?
Gionta:?
Foligno: ?
Bailey (assuming he makes the team): ?
McCabe:?
Kulikov: ?
Franson: ?
Deslauries: ?
Gorges:?
Girgensons:?
Callups & others:?
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Is Kane still on the team?
For now. Ok that's another 20 goals on 800 shots.
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I think Vesey signs with Boston. Opening Night looks like this...
Okposo - O'Reilly - Moulson (they're gonna give Moulson a shot with his buddy Kyle to see if he can get things turned around)
Ennis - Eichel - Reinhart
Kane - Girgensons - Bailey
Foligno - Larsson - Gionta
I think we have 3 scoring lines, and our best checking line from last year to be our 4th line. If Moulson can regain some of his form, i would really like those lines.
This is a very interesting lineup, but why did you take Okposo and Moulson out of their natural positions? Also I don't think CDB will play Ennis with Jack and Sam. GMTM and CDB have been pretty clear that they want a more physical presence on that line.
How about this?
Kane ROR Reinhart
Ennis Jack Okposo
Moulson Girgensons Bailey
Foligno Larsson Gionta
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I'm sorry, rankings are great prior to the draft, but once a player is drafted rankings ultimately are meaningless. Why do the Sabres care if some 5th rd forward drafted by Arizona develops faster then Cornel? What the Sabres, and we fans care about if whether the kid is developing and has a future with the Sabres.
Take Bailey for example. You can argue he took a step back for a 1 1/2 after being drafted. People thought he wouldn't amount to anything, but since then he has been are most improved player for 1 1/2 and is likely to make the Sabres now. I couldn't care less what his ranking was in 2013, 2014 or 2015. I care that he help the Sabres now.
Cornel is no different. Like Bailey the light has gone on. If the development continues and he can challenge for Larsson's job in a year or two that justifies his selection. Remember 65-70% of second rd picks never make an impact in the NHL.
That said, I follow Sabres proepects very closely because they are the life blood of a small market team. But I am impressed that you take the time to follow prospects across the league and then rank them.
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Sabres score 250 goals, finish 3rd in the division.
Bailey earns the 4th line RW role out of camp and then moves ahead of Gionta on the depth chart by mid-season.
Biggest disappointment is Franson and he gets sentdown to the AHL.
Biggest surprise besides Bailey will be Lehner. He stays healthy and finally olays to his talent.
McCabe's play also ends all trade rumors involving Fowler.
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I thought Murray had a terrible 2014 draft. He chose way too many forwards, and some good picks have gone backwards, like Cornel, and what I thought were weak picks, have gotten better, like Lemieux. 2014 looks at this point to be a wasted opportunity.
Murray's 2016 is more analytic than you think. At least they have looked at a calendar to see that overagers are much better picks than 17 year olds, so they took 3 of them. They also understand that late round very young picks are good choices, and they have at least a couple of them. (Pu and Hagel), I really doubt that that's a coincidence. Toronto, who cares very much about this stuff, took 5 overagers.
Does the Birkman group have a wikipedia page?
Cornel has gone backwards? Really? The kid busted out last season as he took over as Captain of the Petes. He had 83 pts and +19 last season vs. 52 pts and -24 the year prior. Besides Borgen and Estephan he has out most improved non-pro prospect.
While 2014 doesn't look great 2 years out besides Reinhart, GMTM smartly drafted a bunch of college kids and Euros to give them extended development time. It could be another 2-3 years before we know what we have or don't have in Johansson, Brown, Willman and Olofsson.
Furthermore, 3 of the 2014s are joining the Amerks this season, Martin, Karabacek and Cornel. Check back in a year or two to see how they progress. I think Cornel is Larsson's eventual replacement down the road.
Ultimately you may be right, but I think it is much to early to judge.
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Actually I think all 4 options are still open. We signed Ullmark to his ELC before his Swedish contract expired and left him in Sweden. That said his performance in D Camp was enough to show he is ready for at least AHL duty.
Assuming he goes to Rochester, that adds another top forward. The talented slated for Rochester should make for an exciting Amerks squad.
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Today was the deadline for RFA's to sign their qualifiying contracts. Catenacci signed his, but no news on Girgensons and Ristolainen or Kasdorf for that matter.
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I agree. Obviously he impressed GMTM and the Sabres want to direct his development from here.
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Besides who is going to make the team, the next question is how many goals will we score? We need to score around 250 goals in order to become a contender. I think we can expect ROR and Okposo to score 20-25 goals each. I think Eichel and Reinhart can reach 30 goals each next season. That is about 105 goals between the 4 of them. Where do you think the rest will come from?
Alex Nylander signs his entry-level deal
in The Aud Club
Posted
I wrote earlier that Nylander still has all 4 options available to him (NHL, AHL, OHL and Sweden). This article confirms that despite his signing his ELC. http://www.mississauga.com/sports-story/6773516-mississauga-steelhead-alex-nylander-signs-with-buffalo-sabres/
I agree on Ennis, but not sure about Girgensons. If we move him from the 4th line center job, we really don't have an adequate replacement. COR would be the best option, but he is a AAAA player at best. I envision a non traditional 4th line next year. I envision one that gets around 12 minutes a game and is expected to add to the offense. My hope is that Big Z starts to reach his potential and eventually force Larsson into the 4th line role.
You forgot about Deslauriers. IMHO Deslauriers should be the 13th forward and emergency D this season. I think this scenario and the uncertainty surrounding Vesey is why Kane is still a Sabre. I figure that GMTM wants to keep all his options open with Kane (legal issues), Ennis (health issues), Moulson (non-performance issues), Nylander (lack of experience), and Vesey (lack of contract & experience) to see how the chips fall in training camp.
I know GMTM probably wants a PP QB still, but likely won't make a move until he see what he has in Nelson and McCabe and sees how the LW situation resolves itself. First domino, Vesey Aug 15 or so.