GASabresIUFAN
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Posts posted by GASabresIUFAN
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Kulikov has been good in every pairing, except for Bogo.
Bogo and Gorges have been anchors pulling their partners down.
Really interesting chart. It confirms most of my eye test. According to your stats, Bogo has been awful defensively, Franson has been better, McCabe is our most consistent D and Kulikov and Risto should be paired together. I graded on their play relative to my expectations. Kulikov got a C, partly because he has been mostly good defensively, but has added zero offense, Not even a single assist. That simply isn't acceptable 10 games in. Thus he gets a B for his defense and an F for his offense; thus an overall C grade for the first 10 games. Bogo is supposed to be more dynamic offensively then Kulikov. He has added neither D or O, and thus and F.
Randall, I can see downgrading Moulson to a B, but really what were our collective expectations for him entering the season. 10 goals? 15 if we were lucky? I also think he has looked pretty good playing with Okposo and ROR. Granted those two guys could make Ville Leino look good. Overall he has truly exceeded my expectations heading into the season for him.
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Gotta disagree with you on Bogo. Our team defense is better with him on the ice. He's not amazing, but he's better than Casey Nelson.
He is supposed to be better then Casey Nelson. Nelson is a rookie. Bogosian is a 9 year vet getting paid 5+ mill a season, He is supposed to be our 2nd best two way D behind Ristolainen. Also compare his play YTD to the player we watched in the final 3rd of last season. In the final 31 games last year Bogo was 6g 10a +5 (he was 1g 7a -16 prior to Feb) This season 0g 0a -2 (-5 without the Edm game). In a word he has been terrible at worst, lousy at best.
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A - ROR, Okposo, Gionta, Moulson and Larsson. Moulson and Gionta, two of our veteran leaders have stepped up their game since the injuries and are helping to keep us afloat. ROR and Okposo are two excellent players who never take a shift off. Larsson has flourished by cloning his game on ROR's. His excellent two way play has been fun to watch
B - Ristolainen, McCabe, Foligno, Lehner and Nilsson. The two goalies have been solid. Lehner looks much better; quicker, but still his game lacks some discipline and still allows some soft goals despite some spectacular saves. Nilsson has done exactly what a competent backup should do and that is give the team a chance to win when he plays. Risto and McCabe have been our best two defensemen on both ends, but that isn't saying much. Neither has been great, but both continue to show progress. Foligno has improved as the season has progress playing with Larsson and Gionta.
C - Reinhart, Girgensons, Kulikov, Gorges, Grant and Franson - Not much to say about this group, all have underwhelmed in some way. Reinhart and Girgensons have been better since pairing together. Gorges and Kulikov have been decent defensively, but Gorges lack of speed has been exposed. Kulikov has added no offense. Franson has been better then last year, which is a positive, but like Gorges his lack of foot-speed will be a problem all season. Grant has been great on the PK and in the FO circle, but has added little else.
D - Ennis - Ennis still skates around aimlessly and makes i'll advised passes. He has been better of late with Reinhart, but not great. We need him to pick up his O and play smarter.
F- Bogosian and Deslauriers. Neither player has added anything positive to this season. I'm not surprised, just disappointed.
The Kids - Nelson, Fasching, Bailey and Baptiste - I'm not ready to grade any of them yet because of limited opportunity either in games or playing on a line that best utilizes their talents.
Coaching - B Surprised? Well look at it this way. The team is .500 despite losing Eichel and Kane and while getting almost no offense from the blue line and only sporadic offense up front. The special teams have been very good and our improvement in goal and in the faceoff circle is very noticable. The coaches need to find some offense from someone. They also held the team together after the collapse in Philly and the no show against Minn at home.
GMTM - hard to grade yet, but getting Okposo has helped and his third choice for backup goalie has been better then expected. However, Kulikov hasn't added the expected two way play and Grant has helped the PK but little else. Also his failure to add D depth is becoming a problem. Grade: C
Team overall: B Generous? Maybe, but there is reason for optimism. Our goaltending is solid, our special teams are very good and those factors should keep us in most games. The team is staying afloat without two stars and is playing better of late. I also like that we seemed to have finally settled on 3 offensive lines and they seem to be finding some chemistry. This grade could easily be lower, but it's based on progress over the first month.
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Vesey update.
10 games, 6 goals, 3 assists 9 pts +5
The kid looks really good. I hate to say it, but it looks like he made the right choice. He is becoming a star in NYC. That means huge opportunities off the ice.
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I don't know what he is worth. I don't make thatdecision. However, as I look around the NHL and see guys like Hutchinson in Wpg or Dominge in Az, I realize that there is a quality goalie shortage in the NHL, especially at reasonable salary levels. If I had to guess, especially if GMTM finds a team that could lose a D to expansion, he might be able to do a one for one deal or Ullmark plus a pick for a 5/6 D.
PS Kulikov has ZERO pts in 8 games. None, despite PP time. While he has been decent defensively, he was brought here to add at both ends of the ice. He makes $4 mill this season (or the same as Cam Fowler). I'm not paying him that next season for this kind of production. There are better stay at home guys for that price.
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First things first, Randall congrats. Physics is tough. However, even with graduate school, life never unfolds like you think it will. As someone with multiple degrees I thought my career path would follow one of two paths, but instead something my grandfather taught me at 13 became the career I eventually choose, but my education has helped every step of the way.
As to the Sabres, I grew up watching the French Connection and I thought they would win at least one Cup. Didn't happen. However, I'm still hopeful that they'll get one eventually and I think there are pieces on this roster that could get us one. I wouldn't say they have turned the corner yet. They do have some good leadership in lockerroom. To bounce back so quickly after the 2nd loss at home and the terrible meltdown in Philly is a huge step in the right direction. I still think this team is flawed, especially on the blueline, but that is correctable. After McCabe and Risto, i think the rest of the blueline group needs to be replaced.
One other note, can you imagine if the Sabres had drafted Mike Bossy instead of Ric Seiling in 1977? (Seiling went 14th to the Sabres and Bossy 15th to the NYI.)
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Kulikov is an UFA. He is not going to be protected. He controls where he plays next season so no need to waste a protection slot on him. LV has to convince him to come there during a one week period before the draft. He is young and in his prime he isn't going to sign in LV.
Furthermore, if he continues to produce at current levels, we aren't going to re-sign either.
The issue is more then avoiding losing Ullmark to expansion, it's more about trading an asset that may not have a huge future in Buffalo for someone who might.
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Ullmark is eligible for the expansion draft. That said I don't think he's at risk of getting picked.
I'd keep him around, he's show flashes of brilliance. If Lehner pans out and stays healthy then that might make him expendable, but not sure how much you'd get in return at this point.
And I'm not so high on Petersen. He's been very good in college, but they dont usually make an impression in the NHL. I've watched some ND games this season and he had a very good defensive team in front of him, I think he's more a product of the system than a stud prospect.
https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-likes-ncaa-goaltending/c-280059700
Ryan Miller, Cory Schneider, Talbot, plus top prospects Hellebuyck and Demko are just some of the NCAA goalies I can think of off the top of my head. Former UND goalie McIntrye has recently passed Subban on the Bruins dept chart.
Since we can only protect one goalie and assuming we re-sign Lehner, then this further bolsters my argument to trade him. Why lose him for nothing, or have to make a side deal to keep him. Sounds like a waste of assets either way. I do think there is a good chance he would be selected. LV must select three goalies. Odd are that 2 will be NHL guys and one is likely to be a good prospect made available like Ullmark. In addition, who of value will Buffalo make available? All our best players (McCabe, Risto, ROR, Okposo, Jack, Sam, Lehner) will be protected or exempt. Guys who will be available, especially if we go the 1, 3, 7 route will be very limited. Guys like Gorges, and Deslauriers are who they may have to pick from here.
Right now our protected list probably looks something like this
G - Lehner
D - McCabe, Risto, Bogosian
F - ROR, Okposo, Larsson, Ennis, Kane, Girgensons and Foligno.
If this is the list, our available players are Moulson, Gorges, and Deslauriers, plus prospects Ullmark and Carrier. From this list who are you taking? Are you really going to take Moulson and his big contract without a top tier center for him to play with? I doubt it. That leaves Gorges or Ullmark, I'm taking Ullmark.
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Before anyone freaks out hear me out. I'm not saying today or tomorrow, but possibly by the trade deadline, especially if we are in contention.
Facts:
1) At season's end Lehner, 25 (RFA), Nilsson, 26 (UFA) and Ullmark, 23 (RFA) will all be free agents. Kasdorf, 24, will have one year left on his ELC.
2) We are going to have to make at least one goalie under contract or RFA available in the expansion draft. Kasdorf is exempt and Ullmark probably is as well.
3) If Lehner plays most of the season as he did last night, GMTM will re-sign for at least 5 years.
4) The Sabres already have 49 mill in contracts for 15 players in 2017-18, but with no goaltenders. In addition to the 2 RFA goalies, RFA's include Big Z, Larsson, & Foligno. Key UFA's include Gionta and Kulikov.
5) Franson and Gorges are too slow for today's NHL and we have no one in the pipeline really ready for the NHL, Guhle is probably the closest, but that is no sure thing.
6) Teams across the NHL, like AZ and Car have no solid NHL goalies and not much in the pipeline.
7) Cal Petersen, 22, is probably our best NHL goalie prospect and he'll likely be signed to a pro contract after this college season, his 3rd at ND.
What does this all mean?
a) I think GMTM will re-sign both NHL goalies for next season, meaning Ullmark is likely the odd man out (even if re-signed). If GMTM re-signs Lehner for 5 years, this means that Ullmark is probably blocked from earning No. 1 job here until he'd be 28.
b) Signing Nilsson gives someone GMTM can expose in the draft who'll unlikely be chosen.
c) we need more young D in the pipeline and more speedy D in the NHL.
d) Ullmark is back on his game ytd and likely has some good trade value.
e) When Petersen is signed, odds are the GMTM wants him in the AHL in 2017-18. If so, that means Ullmark, Kasdorf with Petersen will all be fighting for the AHL jobs.
Bottomline: So many teams are looking for quality goaltending help, especially guys that are young, capable and still very cap friendly (and expansion draft exempt) The Sabres are desperate for NHL quality D now and even more so next season especially with Franson and more importantly Kulikov are UFAs. My suggestion is re-sign Nilsson and Lehner and then trade Ullmark to Ana or Car (or others) and get one of their near NHL ready young D in return. Ana can afford to part with Montour for example. They need a backup for Gibson and need cap savings for next season. Carolina, Dallas, and Arizona, could all use young help as well. With Ullmark traded, Petersen and Kasdorf can compete with top AHL G next season and we also still have Johansson in the pipeline.
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Baptiste has better hands and is a bit more creative. Bailey is a physical specimen who may have dominated lesser competition with size and speed. I don't see the hands in his game and he thinks the game instead of reacting. More time in the AHL can cure both ills.
Why someone doesn't get called up is always a bit of a mystery. The example I always come back to is Pominville. Vanek and Roy make the team and Pommers is waived and no one takes him. Then he finally get a chance and now all these years later, he may the best of that great rookie crop. (Fyi; Pommers is the 3rd leading pts scorer of the 2001 draft class.)
Bailey will get his shot. With Nick out amd Fasching, maybe they'll finally another shot.
Right now, Ristolainen and Gorges have a CF% of 39.4 when together. When split apart, Gorges is a 19.0%, and Risto is a 51.6%.
The sample size is small still, but this is something that was predicted before the season, based on last year.
I do think the pairs are maximized right now, because I think a pairing of Gorges - Franson hurts us a lot, but GMTM still needs to focus on finding Risto a partner that can handle the minutes Dan gives him, even though (I think) the defense as a unit has been playing well.
As long as Gorges and Franson remain Sabres we will continue to have a hole in the D group. The sad part is there isn't anyone in the organization ready to replace them now or maybe even in the next year or two. Obviously, Nelson's play in his only game didn't inspire any confidence and with the team with 2 straight wins, i doubt you'll see a change in the D.
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Here is a couple of more stinkers.
Curtis Brown for Jeff Jillson
Stu Barnes for Mike Ryan and a 2nd (Branislav Fabry)
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Hasek for Slava Kozlov and a first
Danny Gare, Jim Schoenfeld, Derek Smith for Mike Foligno, Dale McCourt and Peterson. McCourt never was the same goal scorer he was in Detroit.
First Round Pick for Robin Lehner. Too much for a goalie,
Mike is one of my favorite all time Sabres. We got 664 games frim him plus 500+ pts and a captain. Pederson also gave us 4 good years. Gare and Smith gave Det a total of 99 goals between them.
Ray Sheppard for a buck.
That's pretty bad. Ray was a very good player. I can only imagine the personality issues that lead to that deal.
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I forgot about Hannu Virta on defense. Is 245 games not enough? He was really solid with 25g and 101a in those 245 games.
Were Marty Biron or Bob Sauve good enough to slip on to the end of this list?
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We all remember the great trades. Names like Hasek, Satan, Drury and Briere all were acquired with little value or not nearly equal value going the other way. Seriously Hasek for Stephane Beauregard or Satan for Barrie and Millar. Wow!
But we have a couple of stinkers going the other way. In my humble opinion the worst was Calle Johansson for Malarchuk and Ledyard. The guys we got were good players and gave Buffalo some value, but Johansson is the greatest D in Wash history with 474 pts in 983 games. Had he stayed, he'd rival Housley as the best D in Sabres history. To bad we only got 118 games from him before trading him away.
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After the 4 guys on the ballot get in, that's 13 players in. So who is left, in no particular order?
In Goal: Edwards and Barasso
On D: Hajt, Korab, Van Boxmeer, Zhitnik, Bodger, Playfair, Tallinder, Myers, McKee,& Woolley
C: Hawerchuk, Luce, Turgeon, Peca, Drury, Briere, Tucker, Ruuttu, Barnes, Roy, & Savard
RW: Dumont, Audette, Ray, Seiling, Foligno, Pominvlle & Dumont
LW: Vanek, Satan, Ruff, Brown, McKegney, Hecht, & Ennis
Current Guys: Eichel, Ristolainen, ROR
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It's time to get some energy in the room. Bring back Baptiste. Give Nylander a couple of games. Bench anyone not giving 100%. After that lackluster performance (our 2nd terrible performance in 2 home games) It's time to try anything. Need to add speed and skill.
So ......
Nylander ROR Reinhart
Moulson Larsson Okposo
Ennis Girgensons Baptiste
Foligno Schneider Gionta
Kulikov Risto
McCabe Bogo
Gorges Nelson (10 minutes only)
Ullmark
Lehner
Demoted Fasching and Grant. Waive Nilsson. Put Deslauriers on the bench permenantly.
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That was embarrassing.
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This team without it's most important player (Eichel) and a key scorer (Kane) has 4 pts in 5 games. Not great, but not terrible either, and there have been some real positives. The PP, even without those key players, have been very good (thank you Matt Moulson) and the PK (other then last night) has been stellar. Our Team Faceoff % is greatly improved with the addition of Grant and improved numbers by Reinhart and Girgensons. The goaltending has been steady. We have also played a difficult schedule so far with 4 road games including a West Coast trip. Our opponents YTD are 22-10-4 with only Calg being below 500 at 3-4-1. Despite the hard schedule our goal differential is only -2 which means we have been competitive in every game (ok except Mon and I'll give the boys a pass on that one with the shock of losing Eichel and then Kane). Also don't forget we are integrating two new key players (Okposo and Kulikov) to a team that was thrown in chaos with the injuries with even the new pieces sidelined to start the year. Other positives IMHO have been the improved play of Moulson and Girgensons. Larsson is becoming a top defensive forward and I think McCabe is becoming our best defensive defenseman.
My goal for this team until Jack and Kane return is for them to tread water and stay around 500 which they are doing. I'd like to see DD settle on some D pairings and let them develop some chemistry. However, the tinkering both up and back by DD is his search for chemistry on a young team trying with everyone trying to find a role and it's pretty clear that the chemistry is there yet.
Last year we went 15-22-4 to start the season and then finished 20-14-7. If they can manage 41 pts the first half this year and if they can turn 3 of the OTL's into win and go 23-14-4 down the stretch we'll still be in the playoff hunt by year end.
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I don't see a problem with having 2 "skill" guys on a line (using that word instead of finesse), as long as they aren't afraid to go to the dirty areas, and there is at least one hard-nosed player on the line (Girgs). As Sam has shown, he isn't afraid to go to the net front.
ROR and Okposo are skill guys but they aren't finesse players. Reinhart and Ennis need space to be effective and aren't really good at creating it. Reinhart in front of the net on the PP is a seperate issue.
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I'm going to use the finesse word. Sam, despite the goals around the net last year, is really a finesse type player. He is also the 3rd lightest Sabre forward behind Gionta and Ennis. Putting two finesse players together makes me worry about ouck possession. Big Z is the guy who is going to have the dig the puck out, forecheck etc... Hopefully it works.
As to Nelson, his skating and offense are NHL ready. His D isn't. So the question becomes is he better off learning D in Buffalo and practicing against NHL players while also being sent down for some weekend games in Roch or playing full-time in Roch. I vote for keeping him in Buffalo.
One other note. Has anyone else looked at how good our Faceoff stats are so far. I think it has been one of the keys to the PK.
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Maybe they'll trade Vatanen instead. I thought they should have traded him instead of re-signing him given his age. Fowler is younger, and cheaper for the next two seasons. You can always move Fowler after this season to give a roster space to Montour and Theodore long-term. They also have another top D prospect in Jacob Larsson.Sooooo Reinhart? :angel:
I've been watching the Ducks games to see how Fowler has been playing. Don't kid yourselves, he's not coming cheap even if he's the one to truly get moved. He's arguably the best defender they have right now.
Maybe this is what they are trying to do. Get offers for both Fowler and Vatanen and then take the max offer. However they are running out of time and teams are running out of cap space.
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My biggest concern with Reinhart at center on a line with Ennis is I fear that they will be physically dominated. I hope Big Z is willing to serve as a corner man and protector to the small Ennis and smallish Reinhart.
I'm kind of excited to see if ROR can create the same kind of chemistry with Moulson and Okposo that Johnny T did. I'm going to be optimistic and think that this line is going to work, If so, what are the ramifications for the team once Eichel and Evander return?
Could we look like this in 6-8 weeks?
Moulson ROR Okposo
Ennis Eichel Reinhart
Foligno Larsson Gionta
Kane Girgensons Deslauriers
Grant
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The Monday D pairings were:
Gorges Risto
Kulikov Bogosian
McCabe Franson
DD wants to get Kulikov more PT so McCabe gets paired with Franson, The biggest problem continues to be Franson.
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Has anyone considered that as long as Franson is on this team, we'll have at least one pairing that we aren't going go like. At least Kulikov/McCabe and Georges/Risto we can live with and this is better then creating a Franson/Gorges pairing.
2016-'17 Lineup
in The Aud Club
Posted
Actually, I don't advocate not re-signing Kulikov. I'm advising to take the whole season and see how he plays and if his play merits it, then re-sign after the expansion draft so we don;t have to waste a slot protecting him. I further advise that if he continues to produce nothing (or very little) on the offensive side, then re-signing him will be a waste of resources.