GASabresIUFAN

I figured on Ullmark 2 year 2.8 to 3 per season, VO at 3 for 1 year and 3.5 for 2. Reinhart, I think Gallagher’s deal is close. Could be as low at 5.5 for a 1 year deal.

I've put down my ideas of the rest of the alphabet. I could use some help with X & Q. Other thoughts on other letters are also ok.

2-way. 160k in the AHL

At least we won’t run out of D with NHL experience if we make a deep playoff run. Casey is 28 and likely has a young family. He may have decided to stay to avoid making huge life changes during all this uncertainty. I wonder If the AHL will base their teams in the parent city this season and do double header games against the opponents AHL team before the NHL. So you’d see Marlins Vs Amerks before the Sabres Loafs game. One could even be a matinee on weekends

I think he is saying from a development standpoint.

I get it. I was there once my self without the drugs and alcohol. I used to work like a dog, get involved in my kids sports and other organizations etc.. Now the kids are living on their own and I have more time to argue on Sabrespace. Enjoy you kid, they grow so fast.

You don't think Quinn is a lock to play 210 NHL games? What has Asplund done to prove he is destined to be a full time NHL player? I'd love to see Borgen make the club, but he has done nothing to force his way into the lineup. As to Routsalainen, (I assume you mean him although he isn't named Rasmus) how many undrafted small forwards make and stay in the NHL? I really like the kid and he is off to a great start in Europe with 5 goals in 7 games, but there is no clear role for him in Buffalo this season and no clarity if the AHL will play. With each passing year it gets more likely he remains in Europe. As to the others, what are your numbers and why. List them and tell us why you differ. This is all speculation anyway, but it's an interesting to see how people here view our prospects. You seem to have more faith in Borgen then I do. That's great, but I'd love to know why.

Sorry, but Hecht was the top 2 way center. Roy was second, both saw more PK time and more defensive starts and it's not close. Tim Connolly improved as I said, but not to the level of the other. Nice try. I'm shocked truly that a kid age 19 & 20 struggled in the NHL. Shocked I say. But it's wrong to say he hasn't shown the ability. He has. He had periods of good play in the NHL where he was playing 15-16 minutes a night. He has 25 pts (with 12 goals) his first full season, something Johan Larsson has never even approached. He has proven he can beat NHL D, he just hasn't proven he can do it consistently. Unfortunately, when he started to really struggle with his confidence, they just diminished his PT instead of sending him down and allowing him to get his game back. I suggest you read the quotes again. After a rough start, his game improved as they feed him more PT. His defensive awareness improved and then his O came around. That doesn't happen without being coachable, having the necessary talent and game IQ and without putting the work in.

Rounds or picks? The cliffs in the draft are top 3, top 7, top 15, top 25, the second round and mid way through the 3rd. After that it's a crap shoot. Between mid 3rd to the end the player's chances of making the NHL for 100 games is about 18% after the mid 3rd down to about 11% in rounds 5-7. This data comes from former TSN reporter Scott Cullen who used to write a great column about draft pick value. Instead of the 100 games Cullen used, I'd like to know the stats for guys playing at least 3 full seasons in the NHL. To the end, I'm curious which of our guys in our current prospect pool people here think will play say 210 (120 games for goalies) NHL games (for Mitts and Thompson, lets say 210 more games)? Here are my guess 1) Cozens 100% 2) Quinn 100% 3) Mittelstadt 85% 4) Thompson 100% 5) UPL 90% 6) Routsalainen 50% - I'd have a higher % if not for COVID 7) Peterka 65% 8.) Samuelsson 90% 9) Johnson 85% 10) Asplund 65% 11) Laaksonen 35% - This number could easily rise if he adjust to NA hockey quickly 12) Bryson 45% - Made a good impression last year. If he continues that progression, this number could easily be in the 80's by the end of next season. 13) Pekar 65% - He is a better version of Kaleta and he lasted 350 games 14) Portillo 35% - If things go well at Michigan this number could easily rise as well. 15) Murray 10% - Earned an AHL contract, but not sure he is an NHL player, but does have an opportunity 16) Borgen - 10% - He seems to be destined to be a AAAA player. May have better luck in a different organization like Alex Biega (228 gms), Chad Ruhwedel (170 gms)

Yes. I wasn't looking at his simple stats. I'm talking about style of play and progression as a player. Connolly also did look lost at times for both the NYI and Sabres. He was terrible away from the puck and worse in his own zone. In his 1st 4 seasons he was a -63. In fact he really never developed into a reliable two way player. His Ozone starts even at the peak of his career was 55%. I don't know if Casey will ever develop into a 60 pts player like Connolly did. However, I think he has 40-50 pt potential and if what Sexton and Taylor said is true and he becomes a reliable two way player, then he'll surpass Connolly in value as an NHL player. Casey's biggest issue is that he went from High School to College to the NHL in about 18 months. He wasn't mentally or physically ready for that transition. The talent is there and according to Sexton and Taylor so is the work ethic. Makes you wonder how hot everyone would be for him if he started in the AHL and developed properly. My guess is he'd be becoming off a dominate AHL season and people here would be pissed that Jbot didn't call him up sooner as they were with VO.

Sure they shouldn’t have rushed him to the NHL. Some guys thrive others don’t. It’s why kids are waivers exempt so that GMs can move them up or down depending on their readiness of the NHL. I think anyone who has written him off needs to study prospect history and look at the hundreds of prospect ls even those drafted in the top 10 who took years to develop. Casey is 21, not 25. Casey reminds me of Tim Connolly. The Casey hate is strong with the Force.

Chris Taylor and Sexton repeatedly. Here is one from Sexton. https://www.nhl.com/sabres/news/buffalo-sabres-instigators-randy-sexton-jacob-bryson-will-borgen/c-317136434?fbclid=IwAR0VQUPmtNs1a9_wCZ2o-MPn4Pzm-LOJlaU-nMiyPfG-Sy7euM8GnlIp1jw This is from Taylor https://buffalonews.com/sports/sabres/sabres-prospects-preparing-in-case-amerks-season-resumes/article_007fe98b-187d-5f92-aba7-65bc6f822fc2.html From the Athletic https://theathletic.com/1643928/2020/02/29/as-sabres-postseason-hopes-dwindle-casey-mittelstadt-eyes-playoff-run-in-rochester/ Bottomline. Casey went down to Roch with a good attitude, took some time to adjust and as the season went along Taylor trusted him in all situations, then the offense started to flow and he became a leader for the Amerks. Sounds like a guy who is figuring it out and quickly. What more do people want!

He slid to 9th.

Why do you keep saying this when his AHL coaches said that it isn't true.

You forgot they should have taken Draisaitl over Reinhart.

Dahlin and Cozens are locks, Mitts already has 100+ games. Samuelsson and Johnson will both have NHL careers. That's 5. Bryson, Pekar and Laaksonen should all have NHL careers of various duration. That's the 8 I mentioned previously. UPL (2018 OHL Goalie of the year and MVP) and Portillo (USHL goalie of the year in 2019-20) are both tracking toward NHL careers as well. That's 10. The longer shots are Rousek (think 4th line Energy play who kills penalties and adds some scoring), Weissbach (3 strong years as Wis) and Davidsson (kind of a lesser Asplund). Jbot goes even 8 for 18 that will be a huge performance relative to his predecessor, but 11 or more is reasonably possible.

He is my top 20 players in the pipeline 1. Cozens 2. Quinn 3. Mittelstadt 4. Thompson 5. UPL 6. Routsalainen 7. Peterka 8. Samuelsson 9. Johnson 10. Asplund 11. Laaksonen 12. Bryson 13. Pekar 14. Portillo 15. Murray 16. Borgen 17. Weissbach 18. Davidsson 19. Huglen 20. Rousek Others Fitzgerald, Biro, Johansson (aged out), DiPietro, Cedarqvist, Cronholm, and Costantini

Colin White (with Boeser & Konecny also still on the board), Roslovic (with Beauvillier still available), Eric Cernak, and Jeremy Roy (with Fischer, Aho, Carlo, and Dermott all available) Still had we come away with White, Cernak and Roslovic as drafted, we'd be much better off then we are now. Coburn was a Trashers pick. TB had no 1st in 2015 and failed on both seconds, but unlike us, they got Cirelli in the 3rd. I'd say their happy. I notice you left off Carlo for the Bruins and last I looked Debrusk is a pretty good player. They went 2 for 5, not great, but a top 4 D and a top 6 forward is certainly helping them. All we have to show is the no brainer pick in Eichel. We entered 2015 with 3 1sts and 3 2nds and walked away with only Eichel.

Except that the year we needed those picks is the year he flung them away as if they were worthless. You simply don't trade away 4 top 2 round picks in the deepest draft in decades. Keeping those picks would have likely changed the course of this franchise long-term. Simply saying he gave away as many as he acquired is not the whole story. Keeping those picks would have likely allowed a proper rebuild of this team, with good depth and a reasonable and manageable payroll.

I think our best hope is for UPL to do a Carter Hart. Play great in the AHL and force his way into the NHL years ahead of alleged schedule.

Here is the Sabres roster and where they were drafted 1st overall - Hall and Dahlin 2nd overall - Eichel, Reinhart and Staal 7th overall - Skinner, Okposo and Cozens 8th overall - Ristolainen and Mittelstadt 14th - Girgensons 17th - Lazar 26th - Thompson 29th - Jokiharju 44th - McCabe 55th - Montour 85th - Eakin 114th - Rieder 151st - Miller 162nd - Davidsson 163rd - Ullmark 181st - Olofsson Undrafted - Hutton, Irwin 14 1st rd picks (5 top 2, and 10 top 10), 2 2nd rd picks, 1 3rd, 1 4th, 15th, 2 6th, 1 7th and 2 undrafted. Only 10 of the 24 listed were drafted by the Sabres including Cozens and Mitts ho may not make the team this winter.

Actually Jbot only traded away 1 st and 2 2nds, while acquiring 2 1sts and a 2nd. Jbot ultimately swapped many 3rd rd picks for 4th rd picks. It's TM who traded away a ton of top picks including 2 1sts in the deep 2015 draft and 5 2nd rd picks. TM acquired some of the picks at the tail end of the tank, but trading away 2 1st rd picks and 2 2nd rd picks in 2015 will haunt this franchise forever. He cost us an opportunity to draft Colin White, Brock Boeser, Travis Konecny, Anthony Beauvillier, in the first and Sebastian Aho, Brandon Carlo. MacKenzie Blackwood and Eric Cernak in the second. Colin White and Eric Cernak were actually drafted with our former picks.

"That matter" What does that mean? Top 6, Top 9, plays 100+ games? plays 300+ games, is traded like Nylander for a great asset? What does "that matter" mean if anything? Is Girgensons a pick that matters? He has played 489 games for the Sabres but mostly in a bottom 6 role. Were Mike Weber or Andrew Peters picks that matter? Building a team is not only drafting top 6 forwards or top 4 D, is about building depth in your organization so that you can have next man up like Pitt had and Carolina has created now so that as players move on you have someone ready to step in. If Bryson becomes a 3rd pairing D that ends up playing for us for 3-4 seasons, that is a pick that matters. If UPL develops into a starter and Portillo becomes his backup, both those picks matter. If Rousek and Pekar become our energy line for a few years or more, like Girgensons and Larsson, they matter also.

I really like this definition and is something I've argued for a long time. It's a more accurate view of the pipeline then eliminating a player not in the NHL simply on games played. Not a surprise we are ranked high when Dahlin, Jokiharju, Thompson and Mitts are added back in.

Sadly they don't list him anymore because he has played 100 NHL games.