GASabresIUFAN

The Sabres won’t have any problem getting to the floor in 2023-24. Thompson, KO, Z, Asplund and Cozens all need new deals.

Don't you mean https://www.starwars.com/video/never-tell-me-the-odds

Don't we need to update this thread title with correct information?

And now back to the show? What if the Sabres win the lottery and take Mr. Wright. I see him kind of in the same vain as Reinhart. I don't think he is NHL ready, but should be in another year. How does that change this lineup? Does it change the organization's view of Mitts or Krebs or even JJP? At some point, management is going have to make some hard choices on some of these talented young forwards. Here is the forwards under control breakdown (Current age) arb = arbitration eligible 1. KO (34) - 1 year left - UFA 2. Skinner (29) - 5 years left - UFA 3. Girgensons (28) - 1 year left - UFA 4. Olofsson (26) - RFA (arb) 5. Tuch (25) - 4 years left - UFA 6. Bjork (25) - 1 year left - RFA (arb) 7. Thompson (24) - 1 year left - RFA (arb) 8. Asplund (24) - 1 year left - RFA (arb) 9. Routsalainen (24) - RFA (arb) 10. Mittelstadt (23) - 2 years left - RFA (arb) 11. Murray (23) - RFA (arb) 12. Cozens (21) - 1 year left - RFA 13. Krebs (21) - 2 years left - RFA 14. Quinn (20) - 3 years left - RFA 15. JJP (20) - 3 years left - RFA At some point you can't keep everyone. After next season KO, Girgensons, Thompson, Asplund and Cozens will all need new contracts, with Krebs, and Mitts (plus Dahlin and Jokiharju) the following year. Tough decisions are coming and if you add a Wright to the mix, someone is going to left without a chair.

So he's UPL? I'm going to have to disagree on Dreidger in general. He had two good years in Florida with save % of .938 and .927. Unlike UPL he was also good in the minors. His last two AHL seasons had save % of .924 and .932. It's more likely that his bad season was caused by playing behind a terrible defense. His numbers (2.96 & .899) are slightly better than tGrubauer (3.16 & .889). Grubauer before this season played 101 games with Washington with a 2.29 .923 and then 113 with Colorado with a 2.38 and a .918. Did Grubauer suddenly become a bad goalie also?

AS to Dreidger I think you are over estimating his value. Seattle is committed to Grubauer. I also worry about Carter Hutton 2, except Husso is so much younger then Hutton was and it possible his career year isn't just an aberration. I am also interested in Comrie, who finally is beginning to show the potential that made him a 2nd rd pick back in 2013.

I agree that plan isn't acceptable. He is also likely to re-sign Subban for the Amerks.

R2 is 24 and will be 25 in October. I think that ages him out of even the most generous prospect lists. Murray will be 24 in July so I'd consider him a prospect still but a fringe one. Biro and Weissbach both just turned 24 and I'd say fringe prospects for them as well. On the other hand, Oskari is 22. He is still very much a prospect and if his in zone continues to improve, I can see him getting called up next season. Rousek just turned 23 and is still a depth prospect, but with upside.

R2 show tonight - 4 points. Hello Sabres management i still want to be in the mix yells R2.

2 years on Helle and one on Quick about 6 mill each in cap.

Hellebuyck in theory or Quick

That maybe true, but at some point Rosen, the Russians, Huglen and others will start to push from below. Maybe even Rousek sooner then later. I can also see our 9th and 16th picks this season if forwards possibly making an impact even soon. I really want Ohgren (16) and Lekkerimaki (9).

Further proof that this team's culture has really changed. https://www.wgrz.com/article/sports/nhl/sabres/hamilton-take2-buffalo-sabres-brighter-future-shines-in-rochester/71-c2cddcf6-cbe8-478b-b887-451f5233a036

Why didn't you just simply write he needs to improve his shooting. in his 3 seasons he has shot 8%, 20% and 6%. He needs to get more consistent and and improve. His shot is good enough to be at least consistently in the 10-12 range. If he gets there and combines that with stellar two way play, he'll become a core player. He isn't there yet.

and? I love his defense and he seems to have found himself this year as a playmaker. If he continues to develop his O game, he'll become a roster necessity. If he fails, then he could find himself traded to another organization as more forwards push from below. Not everyone youngish forward is a core player. Some will have to go to make room for kids in the pretty near future.

Apparently a discussion is needed. I'd also take Slafkovsky at 2.

the word regress basically means to diminish. If Asplund's Shooting % diminishes any further it would be zero. You didn't write that his shooting % needs to regress back to the mean. This has a completely different meaning.

That’s not what you wrote.

There are two lottery slots. What do the Sabres do if they win the No 1 slot? What if they win the No 2 slot? How does it change KA’s off-season game plan? Are any of the prospects NHL ready? Is Wright the dynamic center the forward group needs? Would KA consider trading down a slot or two to add more draft capital or a player?

As to a LHD, maybe KA wants to upgrade Bryson with a bigger more physical player? I don’t think we want Asplund’s shooting % to regress; it was only 6.2 last season. If he could get it to 11 or so he’d become a fixture here. Despite my saying I doubt KA makes a major trade, I do think UPL, Fitz, Asplund, Bryson and Girgensons should all be available in the right deals.

There is a huge difference between team consensus between the scouts and senior staff and internet list consensus. If I’m running a team, I’d want to know who my scouts have the most conviction about. If you have good professionals a GM should listen to them and the culture should encourage the scouts to speak up. As to Boston, who the heck knows how they put a list together.

I’m not really about the pipeline. My “worry” is how quickly some of our young forwards price themselves out of the team. How quickly Rosen and other forwards start pushing on guys like Asplund, Girgensons and KO etc…

I don't look at it that way. While I ranked them 1-31 that year, I actually tier the guys. So there was that year tier 1 which included the top 3. The second tier included had 7 guys including Pettersson, Makar, and Mitts who had very similar rankings and experience doing these charts has shown that the tiers are more important than the actual number ranking. Of the 7 tier 2 guys, all 7 were drafted in the next 9 picks and the 2 guys who popped into the top 10 were both from tier 3 (one pick worked ok in Rasmussen and one didn't in Andersson). Again the consensus boards are just a guide for fans to get an idea who should go approximately where. They are not a PBA list.

Tyson Novak could be signed this offseason and debut with the Amerks in the fall. The issue we are having is that the middle 4 picks in 2019 remain in college or Europe. The good news is all 4 remain legit prospects and all 4 had really good years last season (Johnson, Portillo, Huglen and Cederqvist). KA's 2020 draft is having similar issues to Jbot's 2019. The top 2 prospects developed quickly (this is a good thing), but the other 3 picks, who are all also progressing nicely, remain in college or Europe. Costantini had a very solid college season, Lyckasen, RHD, played well in the SWE-1 including 5 points in 9 playoff games and Konecny played in the top Czech league. So while there is a void in Rochester, 7 quality guys from 2019 and 2020 are making good headway. I suspect in 2023-24 many of these guys in Rochester. Add 2021 prospects like Nadeau, Nozak and Bloom and Rochester could be over flowing in prospects in 2023-24.

As you know I don't believe in PBA because it doesn't exist. Every list and every GM is different and value different things. However using a consensus opinion as a guide to the draft makes sense as most of the good list makers know significantly more then we'll ever know about the prospects. I have made a 1st rd consensus list for over a decade and found that it's usually a very good indication of who the top 20 to 25 players are every year. However the order they get drafted is never right, but the tiers are usually pretty close. Nearly all of my top 30 players each year get drafted within the first 40 picks, but the miss rate increases significantly after pick 20 or so (or whenever Boston drafts). Ultimately I disagree with you conclusion. The consensus wasn't wrong to have Patrick as a better prospect then Makar. He was the better prospect at the time. He was a more productive player in a higher end league at a younger age. Makar didn't blossom until D+2. How is a scout or a list maker to predict that or that injuries would derail Patrick? Hindsight is 20/20. It's easy to look back and say Makar was the best player that year, but that wasn't clear cut then. If it had been 3 teams wouldn't have passed on him. I went back and looked at my draft list from that year and Makar's grade ranged from 3-17. His average was 8.50 for 7th on my draft board. Hischier, Patrick and Heiskanen were 1, 2 and 3 and that's the way they were drafted. Despite all their resources some team get it right like Van on Pettersson who they grabbed on 5 (10th on my board), while the Rangers reached and failed with Andersson at 7 (13th on my board). Ultimately my consensus list did a really good job. Of the top 22 guys on my board, who had near total consensus as 1st rd prospects, all went in the first rd. Of my top 31 that year, 27 went in the 1st rd and the other 4 were 4 of the top 8 picks in the 2nd rd. The consensus actually had some major bright spots like Andersson early and it had Jason Robertson at 28. He fell to 39 in the actual draft, but if we re-draft today Robertson would be a top 10 pick.