Curt

I think you should use all information available in all situations. I was just saying that, for the most part, higher draft picks are so heavily scouted that there is a lot more known about them and they tend to have more uniquely good skills. In the later rounds you are trying to pick between a bunch of players without as much surface level stuff separating them. In that situation, I would say lean on the analytics even more.

This doesn’t even make sense.

You try to hire the person who you think is a good fit. You pass on anyone who you don’t think is a good fit. It’s not that complicated.

Ok........Dudley seems good and all, but did I miss the moment when he became some type of iconic FO executive who has created great teams??? Dudley seemed like a good candidate, but there are a lot of reasons why it may not have been a fit. He isn’t the only guy in the NHL.

This is a bit disappointing. I definitely want them to bring in someone with a good amount of high level FO experience. Maybe Dudley just wasn’t a good fit for whatever reason though.

I saw that article. I honestly think that in the later rounds of the draft (4-7), teams should put a lot of weight into advanced stats, such as NHLe. I wish I could see something like this for entire drafts. We know the Sabres have drafted pretty poorly, but how does this NHLe drafting stack up vs the entire leagues drafting, especially after the 1st round.

I don’t think it would cost that much, and there is no way you know that is the TRUTH. TB will figure it out like they did last offseason when they had to trade JT Miller for a semi protected 1st and a 3rd.

Well, I’m talking about cap situation, not talent. Buffalo is in a better cap situation this offseason, but obviously is in worse overall situation as a team/organization. For TB, having too many good players to afford is a good problem to have, but it’s still a problem. One which other teams will try to exploit.

If you wanted to do that, I think looking at ES scoring only would be more appropriate and informative.

Lots of people seem to think that TB will somehow get out of their current cap difficulty without too much pain, as they have always done in the past. I want to remind everyone what they actually did to get out of trouble last offseason. They traded away a 26 year old forward on a reasonable long term contract who went on to put up 72 pts in 69 games on his new team, in exchange for a mid 1st round pick. That was them successfully getting out of trouble without too much pain. This offseason, their situation is even worse.

I take issue with some of these. From my point of view: Simmonds is not even an average 3rd line player anymore. I think he is shot. Especially based of his production. On pace for just 19 ES points per 82 games, and decreasing for the fourth consecutive season. Olofsson was on pace for something like 38 ES points over a full season, while playing beside Eichel. That’s not great. I honestly think he is a 3rd line quality player at ES. Great on the PP though, of course, and he could get even better at ES. Kahun was actually a more productive ES player than Olofsson. He was on pace for 42 ES points per 82 games, while not consistently playing with guys the quality of Eichel/Reinhart. I’m actually kind of bullish on the possibility that Kahun can be a legit top-6 winger.

I think that sounds like a bargain for Buffalo.

Point and Stamkos play C ahead of him. Cirelli is their 3C. That’s why, with their backs against the wall, they might consider it a painful, but manageable, necessity. Thats the hope at least. Bottom line is, they need at least one (or 2) of their NTC guys to willingly waive that NTC, or they will not have enough money to resign one (or 2) of Cirelli, Sergachev, and Cernak. This is a math fact.

Yeah, Roy always played C I think. Hecht was at W. In 2005-06 I believe Roy/Vanek/Pominville was the 3rd line pretty much all year. They didn’t score over 50 though. The next season they were not together, or playing the 3rd line nearly as much. This is based off mostly fuzzy memory. In any case, those 2 season were a long time ago, and a strange time in the NHL. Penalties called were through the roof and PP scoring numbers followed suit. Point totals were inflated. It was 15 years ago.

There is the issue of: A guy playing 3rd line mins with 3rd line talent is pretty unlikely to hit 50 pts, even if he is very good. That’s why it doesn’t happen. ROR’s pts while in Buffalo are pretty much what I described as Lundell’s “ceiling”. If Cozens were to develop into a 50-60 point, good 2-way C. I would be very happy, and I think that is a well above average 2C.

Better at puck control/defense? Probably not. Better at scoring goals? Probably. Correct. Probably are none. A 50 point C who is also very good defensively? That’s a 2C.

Oh yes. I wasn’t saying it made no sense to bring Dudley in, I was just referring to the title.

For the Sabres??? There isn’t one. Which probably means that it wouldn’t make much sense to have a VP of Hockey Operations.

Only reason I call Perfetti a lock is because I’ve seen it said that Detroit is definitely taking him at #4. I suppose it’s possible that it doesn’t happen though. In the scenario you laid out: A trade is always an option, but remember that the value of the puck may go down in the eyes of other teams as well. I don’t think Lundell should necessarily be dismissed as low ceiling. He reminds me of a ROR or Couturier type, in that his responsible game and IQ will quickly get him to the NHL in a bottom 6 C role, but he can improve from there and eventually take on a bigger offensive role. I try not to underestimate guys with elite IQ, because if he improves his skating and overall offensive skills a bit, then he has it all. I think it’s a lot easier for guys to improve things like skating than it is for players to improve their hockey IQ. I could see Lundell starting off as a 20-25 point 4C, but over the course of 4-5 years, becoming a 50+ point all around good 2C by the time he is 23-24

My hope is that 2 do. Drysdale & Sanderson Top 7 Locks- Lafrenierre, Byfield, Stutzle, Perfetti, Drysdale Top 7 Strong Possibilities- Rossi, Raymond, Sanderson, Holtz Top 7 Longshot Possibilities- Lundell, Askarov, Quinn

They are definitely in rough shape. I think people have just got it stuck in their heads that because it’s TB, they will somehow easily wiggle their way out of it. It’s a tough spot. They will probably have a hard time trying to convince guys with NTCs to waive them right now. Buffalo should certainly be trying hard to make a deal for Cirelli. Or if an alternate deal can be found for an acceptable 2C, maybe try to make a deal for Sergachev instead. TB may be reluctant to trade within the division though.

Agree that it’s unlikely that Cirelli is both (1) moved, and (2) moved with the division to Buffalo. Small quibble, Tampa was always in a fine position to resign Stamkos. The only question was if he wanted to go somewhere else or not. Specifically, whether he wanted to be close to home (Toronto).

Well, if they are not willing to pay him what he thinks he deserves, then he probably isn’t going to Buffalo. Regardless of the title, he would most likely be in an advisory role to Adams. Perhaps similar to what he was doing in Car, as Brawndo just described. The title could be Assistant GM, Director of Player Personel, Assistant Director of Scouting, etc. I doubt it’s the title that matters. It will probably be the duties and compensation that matter.

Why can’t he just be an Executive Vice President? He would work in conjunction with Adams, to be his advisor/right hand man, but not report to him. He would report to Pegulas. It would be like having co-GMs, but Dudley wouldn’t need to deal with the BS of managing the entire hockey department.

What you want to see is every line scoring more goals than they concede, or at least close to it. To me, that shows that they are doing well in their role. I would agree that Girgensons is probably the most easily replaceable member of that line. Unfortunately, both Girgensons and Larsson are UFAs. I think it’s very possible that neither will return and we have seen the last of that line.