Thorny

A good old fashioned hockey trade would be very fun we are hypothetically in a position where we could easily put together one of the best packages. Maybe we wouldn’t be offering the best NHLer but we have the luxury of being able to severely bump up our package due to our plethora of prospects, fighting to make an already young team we can be the ones to overpay and still win the war, easily

The math is bad but it becomes “realistically overcomable bad”, rather than us needing a historic pace bad, reasonably quickly if, to your point, we get an extravagant mathematical result over a small (therefore: doable) sample size beforehand. I understand it doesn’t all happen in this order but if we win our next 2 games, (one vs T-Bay) and the 2 we have in hand on Tampa, and Tampa mixes in a loss today (so, 5 results breaking our way), Tampa’s pace would actually be, after the two losses I spoke of, 69 points through 62 games and therefore 91 over 82. Washington the next best is only pacing for 90-91 currently, so Tampa losing their next 2 and the pace shifting to 91 is actually rather reasonably possible. If we march our current 3 gamer to a 7 game win streak, and are at 66 in 62 after, to get to 92 points we only need about a 107 point pace the remaining 20 games working in our favour there is that 20 games isn’t super extravagant and that sort of pace, while good, was something 9 teams in the nhl did last year over 82 games It’s strictly possible

Moneypuck has us at ~ 3 percent, the above is a good illustration as to why (but imo when you break down what you need it seems at least a little less scary) if we win today (50:50), Tampa loses (50:50), we beat Tampa (50:50), then win our two games in hand (50:50, 50:50) we will be a mere 3 points back from Tampa. Odds of that happening just in a ballpark sense is 1/2 x 5. So about 1/32 or ~ 3%. Seems tough, but it’s not unheard of to have 5 results break your way in a row

I mean.. I have the 6th most posts in the history of this great website and the 5 folks ahead of me arrived a decade earlier. I think it’s fair to say I’ve remained on brand as a talkazoid. It’s what it is.

Ya, our odds fell to 3.8 % yesterday from 4.6

No one laughed at you. I told you it would correspond with a dip in offense and lo and behold, it’s exactly what happened it’s always fun to argue from points of view like yours because you can always be right because you never have a stated scenario in advance that you need to see to be satisfied. You’ve never once argued the team wasn’t doing everything properly: your stance is merely just that things are going well because you can’t prove there’s not worse. No matter what the team does you’ll move the goal posts and say, “what could have even been done differently?” I call my shots in perpetuity. I do not care if you don’t agree with my takes: they have an internal logical consistency. I have stated time and time again the metrics by which I am evaluating the team, called out in advance, so my arguments can be fairly applied. I said was measuring by way of results this year, that decisions were going to be evaluated by way of their role in helping us make, or miss, the playoffs. If that wasn’t your goal, fine. If you think the rebuild is going at a reasonable pace: that’s fine. Moreover: if you don’t actually care about the results of the team and just want full buy in from the fanbase and a full building: have at it, root for that. I have explained my stances and what goes into evaluating and they have remained consistent. I said a year ago Adams would need to be credited if we made the playoffs this year. He would be due the credit had that happened. I’ve stated he’ll get credit for providing good goaltending for next year if there’s good goaltending for next year. It’s honestly pretty simple. And if we make the playoffs next year, I’ll credit him by continuing to follow this team. If not, and he stays on: don’t worry, you’ll have one less person around here talking about wanting a winning team.

Thanks for picking up the slack here, if I’ve explained the stance once I’ve explained it a hundred times Yes, if Adams goal at this point still wasn’t to provide good goaltending for this actual full season, ie he still wasn’t measuring in results in year 4, I can definitely agree we aren’t on the same page Also, I’m talking goals relative to a league wide comparison: this really has nothing to do with your framing of the “eager, impatient” fan. Taking this long to make the playoffs is an exceptionally long time *relative to the other teams*. It’s Adams goals not aligning with the league, not the fan’s. These *aren’t* short term goals: that’s the key. Adams has been GM a long time.

I suppose i should say he gets credit for not dealing him for a draft pick, if that’s a sort of thing you credit. But you have a point

Other teams were supplied with good goaltending for their seasons this year. This was Adams 4th season. You could, at best, argue the three headed monster, with two poorly performing goalies, that yielded a good starting goalie output half way through, was the best KA could have done based on the players and scenario he found himself in at the beginning of this season; but *he created the scenario* wherein we entered into a season where playoffs were the base minimum expectation with 3 developing unproven goalies, and no other more reliable option to lean on. Im glad he stuck with UPL. I’ll be glad to say Adams provided the team with good goaltending next season when that so transpires. But there’s no rush. If we are measuring Adams’ endeavours by way of the achievement of the goal we all said was necessary, and I honestly don’t see how we can’t, we need to evaluate whether adequate goaltending was provided FOR THIS SEASON and the answer is a definitive “no.” I am glad we developed a goaltender. But that’s not the same question as whether or not the goaltending was managed well for this season. Unless you believe that development yet again trumps the results in the now. That’s the central question

The goal wasn’t for the GM to configure a situation wherein we achieved good goaltending half way through the season. The goal was to provide good goaltending for the season. Fail. Maybe next year.

Get out of here with your “logic”

Who’s the bread lol Yes I’d imagine their odds slightly decrease based on todays results

Out of town scoreboard hurts

Yay

They played yesterday, and this is their 3rd game in 4 nights, so that should help us. I was kinda hoping they’d win yesterday rather than coming at us after a loss

I try to associate as much as possible with Matthews so as to invite comparisons between our hairlines: the one aspect I definitively destroy him in

I should have just said “best”. No one has ever played the game as well as him due to advancements in physical stature and training. Berth Gretzky and Mario into today’s world and I’m sure it’s a different story. But if you time travelled McDavid as-is back to that era he’d skate circles around the entire league just pull up highlights from even the earlier 2000s Greatest is a different question: that’s relative. McDavid isn’t the greatest. Not even in his era. Sid has had the greater career

Matthews or McDavid Went with Matthews cause he’s just goal scoring at an insane clip right now. He could theoretically hit 500 career goals *2 years* from now. McDavid is probably the most talented ever but I’ll give Matthews his due for this stretch. Shame he never registers any assists

To your point..not a good day so far on the out of town scoreboard Red Wings win. Bolts win. New Jersey wins

It’ll be tough. One thing in our favour is Carolina plays today and has to travel to Buffalo late for a 5pm game tomorrow on a back to back

Technically we are 9 back with a game in hand on the team currently pacing for 8th

Greenway turned out to be an impressive add from KA. I wouldn’t be suprised if we see something a bit more impactful than marginal. But who knows Also I think a backup goalie for next season should be strongly considered. You need 2 guys and unless we are absolutely sure Levi is ready to provide 30 + games of quality backup play next season it would be a risk to make the same mistake twice in a row

With yesterday’s win, according to Moneypuck our playoff odds jumped to 4.6% from 1.9%. If it jumps by that factor 3 more times we’d be above 50% 😄

Hard to say. With Tampa stinking it up lately the standings didn’t look quite as frightening to my eye this morning as they have of late. Maybe it’s false hope but we also play Tampa coming up. Maybe we can still make a run