mjd1001

Really early look at Monday 4:30pm weather....18 degrees at kickoff, wind chill at 6 degrees....still kinda windy 10-15mph, but no where near as bad as tomorrow would be. Chance of light snow (2-3 inches for the whole day in Orchard Park on Monday).

If it had to be done, it had to be done. But that is going to be a huge competitive disadvantage for the winner. The team that the Bills (or Steelers) will play next week will have 1-2 days more to prepare, to rest..etc.

Not at all, for me its about usage. Ideally he should be a 2nd/3rd line guy. And I don't mean he needs to adapt to a traditional 3rd line role, I'm talking about minutes. If he gets 1st unit PP time (3 minutes per game or more) and gets 2nd/3rd line even strength minutes (12.5-13 minutes per game), I think thats good usage. The fact they put him on the 1st line...that is a totally different problem. PLUS, I admit he is not good defensively, he doesn't take the body, and he certainly isn't diving to break up passes or block shots. So he's not GOOD defensively. BUT, he's not as bad as what people say often and here is what I mean by that: Often times forwards playing in their own zone is not about rushing to the boards to get a loose puck, taking a guy out with a hit..etc. You want your D-men to do that. Your D-men are usually in position to take guys out from the front of the net...your D-men are in the corners more often muscling guys off the puck and getting it out of the zone. Sometimes the BEST thing a forward can do is just 'hang around' their spot on the ice (top of the faceoff circles, center/slot area) to make sure NO player form the other team goes into those spots. Compare Skinner to Cozens on goals scored against the Sabres (and I have watched replays of 100+ goals allowed by this team over the past year or so breaking them down frame by frame). Cozens rushes to the corner...he tries to hit guys...ties guys up....but often to do that he leaves his 'spot' and in the 50% of time the Sabres do NOT win the puck battle, his 'zone' on the ice is now WIDE OPEN, often a prime scoring spot, for a defender to step into and take a shot that leads often to goals. Skinner on the other hand, rarely engages in loose puck battles, won't go to hit someone in the D-zone, but he hangs around in that spot on his side in the high circle (usually) and 1 of 2 things happen: 1. The Sabres get the loose puck and he is in position to transition it out of the zone. 2) he is just hanging around the top of the circle on his side and when the OTHER team gets the puck they can't simply pass it to a D-man or winger who is WIDE OPEN in that area...because while Skinner may not be engaging anyone, he prevents that pass from being made to someone in a prime scoring spot. Again, I'm not saying Skinner is good defensively, he isn't 'good'. As I mentioned in a previous post, there are times where he won't even enter the d-zone, its like there is an anti-Skinner force field preventing him from crossing his own blue line. BUT, if he is the teams leading goal scorer, over the past 3 years in the top 3 every year, and he isn't THAT bad at playing zone defense in your own zone, I don't have a problem with him. Cozens, Mitts, Peterka, sometimes Tuch, Benson, Okposo....all of those guys 'chase' the puck or defenders in the D-zone more than Skinner (showing more effort, yes) but in the replays I have watched more often than not that becomes more of a liability leading to more goals scored against than Skinner causes because they leave wide open areas for opponents to step into. When playing D in your own zone, you can compare it to the NFL. i want my D-men to play press coverage looking for the Int, muscling the other teams WR's at the line. But my Forwards? I want them to play more like a Safetey....occupying a zone to simply prevent the ball from being thrown there. Skinner, in NFL terms, would be a TERRIBLE cornerback playing man to man, bump and run coverage. But as a safety, to simply let him occupy that deep zone to prevent a WR from going into it...he's "OK" (most of the time) As I have said, I have watched the replays of hundreds of goals allowed by the Sabres (and often posted on here my opinion of what I saw). RARELY are goals allowed a direct result of Skinner making a bad play or a bad decision. He may not make a flashy defensive play to break up something, but he is hardly ever one of the main reasons for a goal being scored against (as opposed to Power or Cozens and others)

Not to start this topic up again, but when I watch football, I want to watch the game. I want to see the players perform at their absolute best. I want to see the fast guys run fast, I want to see the great QB's make great passes...stuff like that. The bad weather games? They might be fun to look at for a minute, but to me seeing high paid athletes fall all over, trudge through snow, slide on a frozen or muddy field? Not for me. When people say the bad weather games are "real football" um..no....see my above few lines to see how I feel about that. With that said...where would you rather play as a player? Where would you rather attend as a fan? Clear sky night game but temps below zero and wind chills -20 or worse OR..... Afternoon game...Temps in the mid 20's but wind gust 40-50 (MPH) and the possibility for moderate to heavy snow before and during the game?

I'm good with Skinner. Is he physical? Not laying out hits on the ice, no. Does he play well in his own end? He doesn't play POORLY in his own end....but that may be because he tries to spend as little time there as possible. I have watched replays of goals allowed where he actually STOPS at the blue line and doesn't even enter the defensive zone. But...he is a consistent goal scorer. Don't expect him to carry the team, don't expect him to be a guy that wills the team to victory though his overall game, and I'm good with him for his offensive production.

I agree he stablized that Cozens line. Cozens I think has played awful most of the year, but he looks better (not great, but much better) back on that line. I'm just saying the 5 wins are more a result of Tage scoring and getting decent goaltending rather than Quinn himself. I do understand that inserting him into the lineup has an impact beyond just himself though.

Yes, You know what else happened since Quinn came back? Comrie hasn't played. Tage Thompson has scored 7 goals in 9 of those games. I'm not putting Quinn's play down, but those 2 other things might be a much greater impact on the Sabres playing slightly better over the last 10 games than Quinn in the lineup himself.

UPL and Levi have the goalie of record in 36 games, and have totaled 38 points. Those 2 combined are playing at nearly an 87 point pace. Not playoff pace, not as good as last year...but it looks a bit better when you take out Comrie's 1 win and 5 losses.

Ok, looking to see where the weak spots were on the goals allowed that could use some improvement last night: 1st goal allowed: Johnson starts it on the far boards with a kinda-whiff on a clearing attempt (not sure it was a clearing attempt or a pass up to Thompson on the boards). Thompson loses the battle for the puck when it gets there but he was in the worse position. Credit to Thompson though, as soon a the puck goes across the ice, he IMMEDIATLY moves to the center of the ice...stays in the slot and doesn't vacate that area (Good play by Thompson without the puck, Cozens, please take notes!) Now a bad play by Tuch (positionally). All 3 Sabres forwards are on the far side where the puck WAS, no one is where the puck is GOING (Tuch needs to be closer to the near boards, its his side). Because Tuch isn't there, the Ottawa winger easily picks up the puck and has a ton of time to look around. Mitts eventually comes in and steals the puck, but follows it with a VERY weak clearing attempt right onto the stick of the goal scorer. I want that save anyway, but he was heavily screened. If anyone wants to be enraged I am attaching a screenshot. LOOK at the screen on UPL. The Ottawa guy is almost standing on top of him and the Sabres D let him there for almost a full 5 seconds before they even tried to engage him. I personally put down the forward play in their own zone and give a BIG pass to the Sabres D-men, I think the D-men are better than we give credit to, but letting that guy stand there for at least 5 seconds (watch the replay, please do) has zero excuse. 2nd goal allowed: Some bad luck, puck pinballs around...I don't see anyone drastically out of place on this one. 3rd goal allowed: Samuelssons with a week clearing attempt, Cozens with a giveway in the slot in the D-zone. 2 bad plays by them, not much else here (Dahlin maybe a BIT too aggressive, but it wasn't reckless on his part)

He's playing well, but 2 things: 1. Project that over 82 games and that is a 90 point pace. BETTER, but not like they are even playing at a pace that would get them sniffing a playoff spot. 2. If he is that valuable to the team, all the much harder it would be to replace him, and the harder of a deal/move that would have been needed to have been made.

Great. On a team that is having trouble scoring goals... Skinner is: -Team leader in goals by a wide margin. -Only player on the team on pace for over 30 goals. -Last year you had your top 5 goal scorers account for about 60% of the teams goals. 4 of the 5 are WAY down in production. Skinner is the only one this year that isn't. If this team isn't winning, the only entertainment I get is watching goals. Skinner is (was) the only consistent source of goals on this team.

I agree. I posted this elsewhere, but here are the factors I think are against him right now. -25 minutes of ice time per game, some games 28-29 minutes AND he is playing behind what is likely a much worse group of forwards in terms of defending in their own end than any other star Defensemen. Basically, He is being worn downy physically AND mentally by the minutes and the quality of help he is getting. -Frustration, he has the big contract, viewed by many as the teams best player, he is trying to do too much. The goal he was on the ice for the other night, he was WAY too aggressive trying to make a play in the neutral zone...didn't get there in time, the puck went into the Sabres zone and a goal was scored. He is frustrated by the teams failures AND he is trying to do too much and that is causing other problems.

Below average coach without Brady, has a record that would get him fired after a couple years (and it did twice with 2 different teams) when he didn't have Brady. You have seen Brady have just as much success with BB as he did in Tampa....Peyton Manning carried a few coaches to very good records and a lot of wins. Tomlin has had winning seasons with basically junk at QB. But Bellichick? Without Brady, as a head coach, he's pretty bad. With Brady, Well, history shows us that almost any coach can take a HOF QB And win games. I'm impressed with him as a D-coordinator, but not only do I think he's not a good head coach, I think he is and was pretty bad. Again, he did what he should have done with a HOF QB (the guy that without him won a SB 50% of the time with different coach), and he showed very little ability to elevate a team without a HOF QB to accomplish much of anything.

My seemingly weekly update on what is wrong with the team this year, compared to last year. Not Power, not Dahlin, not coaching, not the PP (well maybe but that would be tied into the other issue.) Not the goalies....Nope. Its primarly 2 guys, Tuch and Cozens. The Sabres are on pace to allow 22 goals LESS than last season, that is a pretty big improvement. They are on pace to score 52 LESS than last year, that is the issue. Skinner had 35 last year, he is on pace to beat that slightly (37 I think). Its not him. Dahlin had 15 last year, he is on pace for 24....Not him. Mitts had 15 last year...on pace for 22..Not him. Peterka had 12...on pace for 24...not him (as a matter of fact, he's not quite making up for VO's drop in production, but when you consider VO's ice time is down almost 30% from last year...in terms of goals per 60, the 2 of them are on a collective pace close to last year). Quinn just came back, but he looks better this year than last. Even Okposo is way ahead of last years pace. You have 7 guys who have over 500 minute of ice time at forward this year: Mitts, Peterka, Skinner, Cozens, Tuch, Thompson, Okposo....... Mitts, Peterka, Skinner, and Okposo have IMPOVED production from last year. Dahlin and Power dominate total ice time on the back end, and combined their production is higher than last year. So, If its coaching, Why are 4 of the 7 guys with over 500 minutes of ice time doing equal to or better than last year...and why are your top 2 D-men also doing better than last year in terms of offense, WHILE your goals allowed are down? Answer. Thompson and Cozens (Tuch a little but mostly Thompson and Cozens) Last year Thompson and Cozens gave you 84 goals. This year, they are on pace for 36 (they have 18 combined through half the season) That is a difference of 48 goals. So, to summarize, the team is allowing less goals per game than last year. Your top guys in ice time are doing equal to or better than last year in terms of goal scoring EXCEPT for 2 primarly, Thompson and Cozens. The projected shortfall of your ENTIRE TEAM in terms of goals scored is 52, and those 2 guys are accounting for a pace of 48 of those 52 goal shortfall. Maybe Granato is or isn't the long term answer at coach. Maybe Power has not taken any step forward (or possibly a step back) this year. Maybe the goalies are not what you need to go deep into the playoffs. Maybe Tuch is playing hurt...lots of maybes. But as much as many of us have one of those things are are upset about and this team losing allows us to focus on our topic of choice....the bottom line is not much is different about the team this year....actually some things are better...except for 2 players production. Tuch and Cozens. Again, if its coaching, why have so many other guys on this team actually gotten better production, or at least similar production to last year...but not those 2? Some more numbers on Tage (not too surprising but here goes): -Last year he scored in 33 different games for the Sabres. The Sabres had 48 points in those 33 games (120 point pace) He scored in MORE THAN 40% of the Sabres games last year. Remember the Sabres won 8 out of 9 at the end of January last year? Thompson scored in 7 of those 8 wins (10 goals) HE was basically the reason for that streak. THIS YEAR, he has scored in 10 of the Sabres 41 games (only 24% of this years games played for the team). This year, the team has 26 points in the 31 games he has NOT scored in (a 68 point pace). Again, its common sense that you do better when your top scorers actually produce, but the numbers show without a doubt, this team is great when he does score, they are close to the bottom of the league when he doesn't.

I agree with all of those points. With all sports, I want the ability to watch the game without they hype and gambling getting thrown in my face. Its not happening though. I have posted in the past that the Bills were always my first passion, Had season tickets from the time I was a teenager until I moved out of the area...would never miss a game for any reason..etc. But I fell out of love with the Bills/NFL, and it was just in the past few year mostly (when they started to get good again.) The best reason I can think is I just get worn down by the coverage. Steven A. Smith yelling drives me crazy. The non stop talk about who is the greatest ever, best team ever, best defense ever....it serves little purpose OTHER than to cause a discussion and getting people to argue with each other. Basically, the NFL coverage has turned into the things in life I dislike the most...saying something controversial, or at least creating a discussion where people disagree (for ratings) and sitting back while people tear into each other. Espn's shows, talk radio, forums, twitter (see the Dolphins and Bills fanbases last week tearing into each other's cities), it has become a battle that has been intentionally created for ratings and I want zero part of that. With Hockey/NHL, we aren't there yet...but the problem is the team I like is just dreadful to watch and follow most of the time.

Despite the general condition of the season, and the feeling we all had after last game, if they win Tonight, they will have won 3 of their last 4. (trying to find something good to post, but I'm honestly not feeling it)

I follow this forum more than I do watch the games. At least here there is discussion, I have probably missed half the games this year (if not half, then half of them I tuned in late or tuned out early). Its just not fun to watch them. Does that make me less than a Die-hard fan? Guess so. If I get more upset by watching something than I do get enjoyment out of it, I'm simply not going to watch it much. The Sabres, I'm there now.

I'm someplace between both of you. I don't think he floats 'a lot', but I can see 2 reasons for why he might. First, his ice time. 25 minutes per game. Several games this year in the 28-29 minute range....AND with this forward group in front of him those might be the hardest minutes any top D-man plays both physically and mentally. Secondly, I think he is legit frustrated right now...I realize as a leader he needs to fight through that though. My point is I don't think he is floating because of a lack of effort as much as some of the forwards are....but it IS showing a bit in his game.

on pace for 32 goals/34 assists (66 points) per 82 this year. His 'breakout' year in 2021-22 he had 38 goals, 30 assists (68 points) in 78 games. So yes, last year could be a career year, and he is back to what he did (basically) in his first breakout year.

Ok I rewatched the highlights from the game last night and looked at the goals allowed: 1st goal allowed: TERRIBLE. A couple awful plays by Greenway here to start, but a lot of sloppy play in the defensive zone. Greenway with the puck behind the net, does he not see the opposing player or just doesn't care? Anyway, he almost has the puck taken away from him and at the last minute just tries to shovel it forward to Power on the boards. Power can't control it so tries to chip it to Johnson (what are they BOTH doing in the exact same spot?) But its ok, it goes to the center of the ice, right on Krebs stick, but he loses it to...no one? But that is OK, it goes right onto Bensons stick with no one around him and he loses it to...no one? (By the way, Greenway is already out of the zone closing in on center ice waiting for the breakaway pass?) Puck goes right to the defender (who has ZERO problem controlling it on his stick unlike the Sabres clowns who look like they are using sticks curved the wrong way) Shot is taken, Tolvanen and Gourde are both uncovered (neither D-man picks up the guy in front of the net who is just standing there right in front of the goalie, and then Tolvanen comes in uncovered down the near side....Greenway's side of the ice but he is gliding back into the zone) Power has to make a tough choice...cover Tolvanen or Gourde....he does NEITHER, instead standing there looking at the shooter the same way 2 other Sabres are doing the same. Greenway makes the first mistake and doesn't stay in the zone to cover his side. Power makes a bad play on the boards and then covers NO-one on his side of the ice. Both Benson and Krebs can't control a simple loose puck. If ANY of those things change, the goal doesn't get scored. 2nd goal allowed: I want my goalie to make that save, but they are a LITTLE un-discipline on the PK (not awful, but not good) The one good thing about having Tage out there is he doesn't move much (thats a good thing) as he lets his reach and size cover the ice. Without moving much, everyone can hold their position. Here, Cozens starts by going down low a LITTLE too much to chase a puck he had no chance of getting to...which allows the puck to go back to the point where the guy there has PLENTY of time to get the puck, control it, and see the entire ice because Cozens is now 20+ feet from him. After a little puck movement, Cozens collapses too far down low when 2 sabres D-men were already there, allowing the guy in his zone to have plenty of time to make the pass that led to the goal. I want my goalie to make the save there, but this Sabes team does a LOT better on PK when they make no moves toward the puck at all, just hold their position and let the other team pass it around the perimeter. Cozens wasn't as bad as he usually is, but again, his inability to control himself from chasing pucks he wont get too leaves open spots in the ice for the other team to take advantage of. 3rd goal allowed: Dahlin takes a chance on stealing the pass at center ice and misses. Power over-commits to the far side of the ice and can't get back to properly defend the 2-on-1. Goal. 75% on Dahlin, 25% on Power in my view for being so far out of position. This one is on the D, not the forwards. 4th goal allowed: Tip in which is tough...but the tip comes from the center of the Ice. Mitts is playing center, he turns when he gets back down deep, but shows ZERO effort to go back to the center of the ice where it is WIDE OPEN. Not sure if he would have gotten there to prevent the goal, but he did a 'Cozens' here and got out of position and left the center of the ice (the prime scoring zone) wide open with no one there to defend. 5th goal allowed: I want that save made, but Krebs does the stick wave on his guy when entering the zone, Greenway and Krebs just gliding back into the zone. Benson is approaching the OPPOSING blue line when the puck is clearly going back into the D-zone. I might have liked Dahlin to go more aggressively toward the goal scorer, but another good example of how the D is hung out to dry by the forwards. It is basically a 3-on-2 against the Sabres because although Krebs and Greenway ARE in the defensive zone..they are both gliding/coasting, making ZERO effort to take one of the Seattle forwards. Eberle cuts right to the front of the net just a stride or two ahead of Krebs, but Krebs makes ZERO effort to tie him up. The Sabres D has this done to them all the time by their own forwards....they can't aggressively take the wingers into the boards because they cannot rely on the Sabres forward to cover....in this case look at the replay and you can see exactly that with Krebs. Krebs, Greenway, Benson, and Power had AWFUL games, or at least were awful on the goals allowed. Cozens get off the PK, the PK box collapses almost every time here is out there and that leads to goals against also. Mitts with a gaffe (leaving center of the ice open on a goal) too.

I agree with not all of what you said here but most of it. Tuch I believe puts in a lot of effort, but his strength is forchecking. He's one of the best forcheckers in a league but sometimes he's just not in the position to do so. Dahlin, as I said in another post, I think puts the effort in but I think he's at the end of his rope In terms of frustration. I could be wrong but I think that's what's impacting his play. Also, 25 minutes per game on average, some games approacing 28-29 minutes and behind THIS forward group...that has to take a LOT out of you. Thompson is playing like a 5 million player at most, not a 7 million player that you thought you had a bargain on. Cozens, I argue with people on this forum about him being good, but he's just not. He is absolutely awful in his own zone, and he's not getting production in the offensive zone. His line "getting chances" is not good enough. He has to actually produce, we are WAY too far into the season to be accepting "Cozens is getting chances, they will go in eventually" The defenseman are not great but I think they are playing better than we give them credit for. They are often put in bad positions, no win positions by the forwards on their own team and they have to make a choice between a bad decision and they worse decision. I agree with you on Ryan Johnson, Benson, and the fact that the forwards should be going to the net more than they are. A junk garbage goal from a scrum in the front of the net may not look as pretty as a pinpoint shot where you pick a corner, but it counts just the same. The 60 minute game is something I didn't believe in as a criticism in the past. If you make good plays, it looks like you're trying hard, when you make bad plays It looks like you're lazy. But, we have too many examples where this team looks totally different from night to night. I am putting less on the coaches and more on the effort of the players, or more on the players for doing what they want to do instead of what they're supposed to. Of course part of that is still on coaching because it's the coach's job to make sure that the players listen and execute the plan. I think Power is going to be a very good to great defenseman, but I've been saying since last year that he's not as good yet as some people think.... and not to expect him to be good going forward right away. It might take two to three more seasons before we see his best. That's just the way it works with MOST D-men.

I really think Dahlin is having his play impacted by being frustrated. Through the first month or two of this season he was playing slightly worse than last year but not all that much...still He was playing like an All-Star level player overall. His play has really taken a downturn in the past 10 to 15 games. I remember a game a couple weeks ago where he did an interview and he really didn't want to do the interview. He was really frustrated. He basically was giving the one or two word answers and repeating it like he really was at the end of his rope. That's right about the time His play has taken a downturn and it's been... Average and some cases below average since then instead of great like it should be. Hopefully it's either a short-term thing or that's not what it is.... But I think we are seeing a frustrated player more than anything else and it is having a major impact on his play.

I want to see the Sabres score some goals. A win of course, but I don't want a defensive battle tonight.

I think he's a good penalty killer because he has good size/reach and he holds his position well (doesn't just chase the puck, uses his reach to disrupt without over-rotating). But, that CAN be replaced if you get a good offer for him. He looks good some games, but honestly, at 16.5 minutes per game, he is getting 3rd line minutes. I'd like more production from him (on pace for 8 goals, 21 assists) from a guy getting 3rd line minutes before I consider him not replaceable.

Top heavy roster. About a $4.5m raise from this year? Well, the cap might to up 1-1.5...so that would leave you to around $3m to have to come up with. Bertuzzi and Domi are both on 1 year deals totaling $8.5m. So, don't resign those 2, replace them 2 different 'middle to bottom line' guys making $2-3m per year, and there you go. TJ Brodie is also making $5m and comes off the books next year. He can either re-sign there for a lesser number, or they can find someone sligtly cheaper to replace him with (Hes going to be 34 next year, is solid but not stellar defensively and has contributed a total of 7 goals over the last 3.5 years for them from the blueline). Even without offense and him playing well defensively, I'm not sure they want to pay the same number to a guy at his age. Toronto's big problem is that they likely have a 2 year window to be among the favorites for the cup...this year and next. Tavares is a high priced guy who is getting old, but he is gone in 2 years. Hes still producing, (36 goals last year and a 27 goal pace this year). That is hard to replace. In 2 years, either he will be gone, or at least that level of production will be. The 3rd season from now (after their 2 year window I think exists), Nylander will be 31, still good but maybe starting that slow down trend (at least still not improving). Brodie will be gone by then. Reilly is the only really good d-man they have, he will still be good but at 32 years of age no longer impoving either. They don't have a bunch of young guys who are looking to be very good NHL players knocking down the door either. The Nylander contract was done because they NEED him for the next 3 years to keep things together. Also they team won't fall apart 3 years from now, Matthews and Marner will still be in their prime, but they window with this roster...is open widest this year and next.