Randall Flagg

I think the D is going to spend enough time on the field to get gassed and burned today, but early returns tell me our defense is legit this year.

Allen's mechanics are reflective of his mental state today. They're the worst they've been since we played in NE last year.

The Pats not only play perfect football, but they will not get out of our team's heads until Bill and Tom retire. Luckily, it's usually a 1-week thing. We are 6-3 in games following the NE game since 2014.

Well, Skinner is a scoring chance machine independent of who he's with, so the reality is that we're getting primed for 82 games of "justified" Sobotka usage.

It's so nice to be 3-0 because I don't think I am capable of feeling any pain or upset today, unless somebody got hurt long term. It'll be back to nervousness as usual next week.

It's Deja Vu all over again baby

I read TBD a lot, and I never see it celebrated without a heavy dose of hollowness because they never finished the job. I see far more discussions about how painful it was that Marv let them party all week before 25 and stay so unfocused than I do talk about how awesome and great everything was The frustration and pain is far more prevalent in any Super Bowl team discussion there than how epic things were

Sobotka's game was unchanged this preseason. He ate pucks on the boards in the offensive zone, and kicked them/passed them around to teammates. It was more successful than during the regular season in that the puck found teammates more often, because it was quite common for him to be doing this against bad players. It was not fundamentally different from how he played in the regular season last year. He still had several instances of failing to get the puck on net from prime scoring areas, especially in Toronto. He scored zero points in four preseason games, at least half of that time being spent on a "top line." He did not come within a mile of changing that stat at any point in time, against AHL players, even though he got a 67% offensive zone start rate. This characteristic of who Vlad is made him one of the 3-5 biggest offensive black holes in the league. If that's worth carrying around for 0.75 faceoff wins per game more than a replacement level Sabres faceoff-taker, and defensive zone play that sums up to being slightly worse than the average NHLer as the season drags on, by all means go for it Ralph. Normally I wouldn't hold preseason production against anyone, but when his preseason is being used to justify his presence, well, I don't see how his biggest problem is fundamentally different this preseason given all of the above. The Sabres' offensive struggles of the last few years are not independent of their lineup and roster decisions. That's all I have to say about that. Film, stats, I've already done that with Sobotka a million times and I'm sure no one is interested in seeing it again.

Definitely rooting for Kyle and Sam to have comparable (good) years so we can keep Sam's number around there.

Even if the Sabres were average or good, it's just statistically not likely that you could choose a four year stretch that would entail a cup win! It's the reality of a large league, without saying anything of the Sabres' competence.

I mean they're not going to do that in any chosen four year stretch regardless, just because there are 31 teams out there.

It would unequivocally be the best stretch of hockey in Sabres history though. Considering what our next four years are simply statistically likely to be (not four straight cup finalists) I'd take that so fast you can't even blink. We'd come out of it with Jack and Dahlin still under 27, we'd get our cup win with them.

If Rodrigues, who is probably our sixth or seventh best forward, sits for Sobotka again this year, well, I don't think this team is capable of making me angry anymore rather than just numb, so it will just be funking hilarious.

Is Toronto sans Kadri less soft than us? Chicago surely is. Though they did just bring back Shaw I think. Montreal? Weber is pretty tough. Other than that? Vancouver? Edmonton? Detroit? Kronwall ain't there anymore.The Panthers did add Connolly, otherwise they'd be in the running. Now that Gudas is gone, who is tough in Philly? Ottawa? New Jersey? They did add Simmonds' corpse, I'm not sure what element of toughness he brings at this age. Surely not Arizona or Carolina. I don't think we're any less "tough" than the bulk of these teams.

When on earth did McCabe get hurt?

Now that the RFA situation has fizzled to a close, we more or less know what most of these teams are going to look like. There may be a Risto trade here, a Honka trade there, but other than that, most of the rosters are probably pretty set. So how do you think this season plays out? What teams will surprise, which ones will disappoint? I think I'm going to do a full-standings prediction with playoff results included, as well as the major awards. Atlantic Division 1.) Tampa Bay Lightning, ~110 points. Still the best roster in the NHL for my money. 2.) Boston Bruins, ~105 points. No major losses. 3.) Toronto Maple Leafs, ~105 points. Their forwards got a little worse, but Barrie may prove worth it, considering Matthews or Tavares will still be on the ice for more than 2/3rds of the game. 4.) Florida Panthers, ~96 points. (WC1) Their forwards are incredibly dangerous, and Bobrovsky is a top tier goalie heading to a team that has been sunk by goaltending in recent years. Playoffs. 5.) Montreal Canadiens, ~90 points. Another year of development for Kotka and Poehling. Defense is a bit thinner than last year I think. Could make a wild card push. Rock solid fundamentals. 6.) Buffalo Sabres, ~82 points. Offense and goaltending troubles, solid team defense. 7.) Detroit Red Wings, ~75 points. Still years to go for these guys, though they have to like what they're seeing from Larkin/AA/Bertuzzi/Mantha up front. May well be a nice forward core with Zadina and other high picks in the near future. 8.) Ottawa Senators, ~70 points. I don't think they're as much of a tire fire this year, but still not a good team. Metro Division 1.) Washington Capitals, ~105 points. An elite regular season team, with another strong roster. 2.) Columbus Blue Jackets, ~98 points. Hear me out. I love this team. Their defense may be the best in the league, and Dubois-Atkinson-Foligno-Anderson-Jenner surrounded by simple but effective forwards that know and fill their role will make this team a pain in the ass to play against every night. Korpisalo may be their undoing. This is my shot in the dark that could very well look incredibly stupid incredibly quickly. 3.) Philadelphia Flyers, ~97 points. Rock solid group of forwards that is still growing via Patrick and Konecny, hopefully better defense (though I don't like Gudas for Braun, namely hoping for their young guys to jump up here) and I think Carter Hart is ready to be a good NHL goalie, the thing they likely needed the most. AV knows how to win in the regular season with vet rosters, too. 4.) Pittsburgh Penguins, ~96 points. (WC) Goofy roster, and I think they're still playing Jack Johnson and Gudbranson? So I don't like their defense, but this team will make the playoffs every year Sid and Geno are in their primes. 5.) Carolina Hurricanes, ~90 points. Mrazek was terrible before Bales, and the Canes had the worst goaltending in the league over an extended period of time before the two met. Now Bales is gone, so I'm going to predict that it's their demise again. Solid roster though. 6.) New Jersey Devils, ~86 points. PK Subban, Gusev, and Hughes have the potential to be a ridiculous boost of talent. They still have a scary defense and a weak goaltending situation, but if Hall stays healthy, there are pieces on this team that can carry them to a tier above where they were last year. 7.) New York Islanders, ~80 points. When I broke down some video of Islanders games, I came away wholly unimpressed, and I don't like their roster much. Pulock and Pelech are fun on the back end though. Can never discount Trotz, but this is definitely the worst total team Trotz has had to coach since Nashville finished low enough to select Jones. 8.) New York Rangers, ~75 points. Panarin is flashy, but Trouba is overrated and their defense and goaltending will again struggle. And their forwards behind the top four guys (who are awesome) are horrifying. Central Division 1.) Colorado Avalanche, ~103 points. Girard and Makar were excellent in the playoffs, and bolster their defense group. Kadri was a 30 goal shutdown guy when he got to be Toronto's 2C before Tavares, and he'll return to that form. Dangerous team. 2.) Dallas Stars, ~101 points. I think Bishop has a Hart-caliber season coming up. And Pavelski will really help the one weak area of their roster, along with Hintz's continued development allowing Faksa to be again slotted properly as an effective defensive 3C. 3.) St. Louis Blues, ~98 points. An unchanged roster, with loads of confidence, and few holes. 4.) Nashville Predators, ~95 points. (WC) Duchene will help these guys a lot come playoff time. They're in a pretty tough division so I think their point totals are lower than if they played elsewhere but this team can win playoff series. 5.) Chicago Blackhawks, ~88 points. Dangerous forwards, and a hopefully-still-mentally-healthy Lehner. Their team defense is problematic but they'll be able to outscore plenty of their problems. 6.) Minnesota Wild, ~83 points. Meh all around. Great team defense and a very hard time scoring. 7.) Winnipeg Jets, ~82 points. I think these guys have a major down year. Their roster is just ugly-looking outside of the list of top six forwards. And I'm not a huge believer in Hellebuyck. Pacific Division 1.) San Jose Sharks, ~100 points. Losing their captain hurts, but Hertl and Meier keep getting better. And they're already great. Goaltending is the weak link. 2.) VGK, ~ 98 points. I really like this roster, and though their defensive depth is concerning, it's not any more concerning than their entire roster was in 2017, and we saw how that went. They play outstanding team hockey and have the best winger in the game (hot take alert) 3.) Calgary Flames, ~91 points. I'm not a Rittich believer, and they plan on using Lucic. I really like their top 5 forwards and Giordano, but am not a huge fan after that. Still will make the playoffs easy in this division. 4.) Vancouver Canucks, ~89 points (WC). Pettersson is going to explode and drag an otherwise-mediocre roster, along with Horvat/Boeser, to the promised land. 5.) Arizona Coyotes, ~85 points. A center or two short from being a fairly complete team, unfortunately, it's the 1C position. They played good hockey in 2019. Raanta is very good. 6.) Anaheim Ducks, ~77 points. Meh. Bleh. Gibson is elite 7.) Edmonton Oilers, ~75 points. McDavid can be the best player in the world again this season, but aside from he, Leon, and RNH, every position on their roster is woefully unprepared to face other NHL teams. 8.) LA Kings, ~75 points. Could surprise, a lot of names I know nothing about. Usually when that happens, some of them turn out to be good. But I still don't like their team. ECF/WCF: Tampa over Washington, and Colorado over Vegas. Stanley cup: Tampa Conn Smythe: Vasilevsky Hart: McDavid Vezina: Bishop Rocket: Ovechkin Norris: Hedman Art Ross: McDavid Jack Adams: Torts Calder: Olofsson I know that nobody wants to spend the time to type that much, but we could at least get some trophy and playoff predictions in here.

Risto for Ehlers incoming?? heh

I'm having nightmares of Miller destroying Skinner's beautiful smile

We shouldn't go too far with this, as Jack has already been clocked in the arm by a Miller shot.

The players whose games were meaningfully different to me this preseason, through one way or another, are: Tage (stronger, a little smarter) Dahlin (better straight line speed) Olofsson (he's ready) Okposo (he's dropped off another cliff) Tage probably deserves a look in the top 12, but if the NHL game does to him what it did last year, we need to be quick with the hook. Dahlin hopefully will minimize his mistakes and take another step forward everywhere else, and of course he'll make the team. And Victor is definitely in the top 12. Casey had a disappointing preseason. I didn't see anything in preseason games that would point to changes for anyone else, essentially. That doesn't mean players didn't grow or regress, but it's going to take NHL games to verify. I'd go into the season with Skinner - Eichel - Vesey/Sheary Olofsson - Johansson - Reinhart Sheary/Vesey - Mitts - Rodrigues Zemgus - Larsson - Thompson, though I'm not sure where to put Thompson really. Wouldn't complain abotu a guy like Wilson taking Zemgus' spot, but I consistently prefer Zemgus' PK track record and effectiveness with Larry in the fourth line role to anything the other options give. I think we're going to see Sobotka. Sobotka played his typical game this September, and it's less ineffective against preseason opponents than it is in the regular season. I don't expect to see anything different from him based on these games and never would have had him in camp in the first place. I vividly recall his preseason games last season and don't think his "good" play this preseason is any different from those. And even if it continues to start the year...the guy earned a C in my first-27-games report card last season before falling off the face of the planet, so I'm just not ready to be fooled by this guy. on defense, Joki absolutely needs to go down, and analytics twitter is going to spazz Dahlin - Montour (when healthy) Pilut (when healthy) - Risto McCabe - Miller Are our clear best starting 6 IMO, though Pilut is going to be out a while. Scandella is going to play instead. If he plays with Risto, it probably won't be pretty the only interesting roster choice on defense is if Gilmour has been good enough to take Nelson's job as the 7D.

Ullmark has been really good today outside of that one goal.

It was literally the most innocuous thing in the world! Are you kidding? The guy made the point that players are bound to be motivated when their jobs are on the line. THE HORROR, HOW DARE HE RUIN YOUR DAY

Your consistent complaining about posters is a lot more noticeable than posters' complaining about hockey things

Ugh Tage win that battle

It is pretty consistently true that Tage's first period is his best, and he disappears as the game goes on