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Everything posted by LGR4GM
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Dobson plays better defense and I am willing to pay for that. If I get rid of Samuelsson and Byram, I basically pay for Dobson's contract. Even if I get rid of only Byram, I am almost at Dobson's deal so I can leave with that. I also wonder if Dobson having a down year helps keep that cap # under 10. 37pts doesn't get you 10mil a year for a defender. If you can get him at 9.5, I think you are getting a better player. I have 0 interest in giving Byram anything over 7mil.
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The Sabres have repeatedly shown under Kevyn Adams they do not understand sh% or how regression and outlier stretches or seasons impact it. Cozens contract, ditching Reinhart, this years current hot streak. The team does not and has not produced enough chances to be sustainable over a full season, it is like when Vancouver was hot for about 3 months and then washed out never to return to those heights again. Think that was either last year or the 1 before but it is the same thing. We need more offensive driving guys and we need more chances, we can't always rely on the secondary scorers shooting at career levels. Thankfully JJP looks like he is at his average but I we have to drive more chances.
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Dobson's projected contract on capwages is 10.5x8yrs Byram's projected contract on capwages is 7.27x7yrs
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Dobson is better than Byram and plays the right, so I am more inclined to overpay him a bit compared to overpaying Byram. Dobson is 1 year removed from a 70pt season and has positive possession numbers. Bowen Byram: 23yrs old, 6'1" 205lbs, LHD: 7g, 31a, +13, 110 blocks, 71hits, -4.8xGF Noah Dobson: 25yrs old, 6'4" 200lbs, RHD: 9g, 28a, -15, 113 blocks, 56hits, +9.1xGF This is Dobson's worst season in 3 years (51pts, 49pts, 70pts compared to 37pts). This is Byram's best season. Since 2021, Byram does not have a + xGF whereas Dobson only has 1 negative. I think that Dobson is playing on a bad Islanders team that plays boring hockey whereas Byram is playing on a top scoring Sabres team. I think Dobson would do more with Byram's minutes in Buffalo than what Byram has done and I get a RHD. Idk if Lou would trade Dobson for Byram but I would start there and see what you can do, especially if Dobson prices himself out of the NYI.
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Thompson signed his contract 3 years ago coming off a season where he got 8.55% of the cap. They will have almost identical scoring numbers, so 8.15million is roughly the equivalent to the 8.55% cap hit. Thompson 2022: 38g, 30a, 78games Tuch 2025: 34g, 29a, 77games
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He's 2nd worst in the NHL in goals saved against average at -22.3 trailing only Georgiev at -32.7 I don't see a way to specifically look at his pp sv% versus others on here without doing it individually.
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UPL's pp sv% is .811% He's 3rd in pp goals against at 37 with Columbus and Boston being tied for 1st at 38.
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If Buffalo can trade Byram and sign Gavrikov and Dobson, I would be pretty excited for what the offseason holds. Ideally they add in a goalie too but I might be asking too much. If not Dobson, who else can we get on the right side? I might even just offer sheet Dobson for 9.1million x6 years if the opportunity arose. Small chance Lou will be like Not for that money and take the 1st, 2nd round pick compensation. Gavrikov - Dahlin Power - Dobson Samuelsson - Docker Clifton (or trade him)
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GDT: Carolina Hurricanes @ Buffalo Sabres 7pm Tues 4/8 ESPN+
LGR4GM replied to Shoot da Puck's topic in The Aud Club
You know they will. Adams loves his recency bias. Hell if you are in a contract year just play the last 20 games well and you can have a 20 year contract! -
This one is my favorite https://chicagohockeynow.com/2024/07/06/chicago-blackhawks-daily-matt-savoie-trade-buffalo-sabres/ No sunshine, not making trades like this have been why Buffalo has been inept for so long. Buffalo has treated every single prospect from the first 3 rounds as though they are the 2nd coming of McDavid. If anything Noah Östlund has made Savoie even more expendable. Savoie: 18g, 29a, 60games, 0.783ppg, +16 Ostulnd: 19g, 17a, 44games, 0.818ppg, +20
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https://www.thescore.com/nhl/news/2936236 https://www.eliteprospects.com/news/nhl/trade-analysis-edmonton-and-buffalo-both-did-well-in-the-matt-savoie-for-ryan-mcleod-deal https://edmontonjournal.com/sports/hockey/nhl/cult-of-hockey/edmonton-oilers-trade-ryan-mcleod-for-hot-shot-edmonton-area-prospect This has the best summary of comments about the trade I have seen including this laughable part: This is why I say that anyone interested in prospects should have an Elite Prospects subscription. They have really good and balanced write ups.
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I think time and the teams also matter for these trades. We are 4 years removed now from them and both teams won cups. Both players have really elevated their game into their primes and had lots of individual success. Tage has been good. Tuch has been good. The rest we hope for goodness. But those 4 years of betterness IMPO matter.
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They resigned after Musk got access to IRS data of illegal immigrants who pay taxes. The thing they are playing with now is illegal immigrants avoiding taxes. Also, giving a South African Billionaire access to sensitive tax data is almost guaranteed to end with him exploiting that.
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The percentages are percentiles for those categories. The weighted average, I believe, gives more weight to the more recent games, so you are somewhat right, that we don't have a big enough sample. I think the important part though is how bad Cozens was for the Sabres. His EV defensive impact was atrocious. I also think it shows he is a league average shooter, he isn't a sniper at all.
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Both players won Stanley Cup and have gone to the playoffs every year since the trade. So maybe in another 4 years we'll have done good but we lost this trade.
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Zach Benson - “There’s a time and place to cross-check someone in the head”
LGR4GM replied to inkman's topic in The Aud Club
This coaching staff is terrible. Instead of telling Benson to tone it down they should be telling everyone else to turn it up. -
The Buffalo Sabres have officially been eliminated for the 14th season
LGR4GM replied to LGR4GM's topic in The Aud Club
Ullmark had and continues to have better numbers than UPL. UPL isn't good enough. He's not a good goalie and one 20 game stretch in 3 yrs doesn't make him one. The entire coaching staff should be fired but the late winning will convince Adams not to do anything. Because Adams is not smart and he's easily influenced by recency bias. Also UPL isn't good. -
The Buffalo Sabres have officially been eliminated for the 14th season
LGR4GM replied to LGR4GM's topic in The Aud Club
Damn you palm trees! Damn you all to hell! -
The Buffalo Sabres have officially been eliminated for the 14th season
LGR4GM replied to LGR4GM's topic in The Aud Club
If we didn't give Cozens 2nd line minutes and 1st line pp time for 3/4 of the season. -
GDT: Carolina Hurricanes @ Buffalo Sabres 7pm Tues 4/8 ESPN+
LGR4GM replied to Shoot da Puck's topic in The Aud Club
More the joke we were gonna make the playoffs and less the sarcasm overall. -
GDT: Carolina Hurricanes @ Buffalo Sabres 7pm Tues 4/8 ESPN+
LGR4GM replied to Shoot da Puck's topic in The Aud Club
We screwed ourselves. Don't blame other teams for Adams failures. At least now you can stop the shtick