dudacek

Why would I take out the rookie year when my entire point was determining whether players are likely to score more in their second 200 games than their first 200 games? And the only reason I did the exercise in the first place was you telling me that they're not?

So I took a look at 10 prominent recent Sabres — which absolutely doesn't prove anything I just wanted to see where they trended. It seemed too much work to find and track their actual first and 2nd 200 games, so I proxied it. These are each player's average goal totals over their first 3 years as an NHL regular prorated over 82 games, followed by years 4 through 6 prorated over 82 games Eichel 29 32 Reinhart 22 28 Okposo 21 23 Skinner 28 28 Tuch 18 30 O’Reilly 14 22 Rodrigues 11 19 Girgensons 12 7 Larson 9 8 Dahlin 7 16

Never said you did. My theory is most do, and I posed a question.

My point was that I suspect their average over their second 200 games to be higher than their first 200 games. Byram and Power have played about 160 games each, Malenstyn 100. Krebs and McLeod just over 200

I sure hope Lindy puts together his starters relatively early in camp and focuses on getting them all on the same page together and with the system. It's pretty clear Donnie's development blender last September was a mistake. I can't recall a time when the roster was more set. They are basically deciding which two of Rousek, Gilbert, Bryson, Levi or Reimer goes down.

I'm curious to see what trends are historically when you compare career averages to averages over the first 200 or so games. I suspect guys like Cozens, Krebs, Benson, Peterka, Quinn, McLeod, Power, Byram and even Malenstyn are at a point in their careers where we should generally be expecting them to score over their career average.

This is thoughtful way of looking at what we should be expecting. The fact is that even though what you post is entirely reasonable, when the rubber hits centre ice dot, we really don't know what we are going to get. There are too many variables, especially with so much of the roster so early in their careers. From '22 to '23 the Sabres took a 62-goal jump without adding an impact player of any note. The last time the team made a similar leap was in '06, with 61 goals. Again, that came without any significant outside additions. I wonder if there was anything in the numbers the preceding season that suggested that was possible, let alone likely, in either case.

Not telling you what to be surprised at, but I didn't pull those numbers out of a hat. Cozens had 31, Tuch 36, Thompson 47, and Zucker 27, just 2 years ago I'm not saying we should expect those numbers (actually I was saying the opposite) but objectively they aren't utter fantasy

Can the Sabres turn Sabrespace into these guys for at least parts of the season? Is it too much to ask, Lindy?

I don't think anyone would be surprised if any of these guys hit these totals Tage 40 Tuch 30 Cozens 30 Peterka 30 Quinn 30 Zucker 20 Benson 15 McLeod 15 Dahlin 15 Byram 10 That's 235 goals from just 10 players. They've got it in them. What would be surprising is most of them hitting those numbers. Because I don't think anyone would surprised by any of this either: Tage 30 Tuch 20 Cozens 20 Peterka 20 Quinn 15 Zucker 15 Benson 10 McLeod 10 Dahlin 10 Byram 5 That's only 155. They've got that in them too.

That's about what they look like on paper. If the breakthrough happens, it will happen through growth. Belief in that strategy is on a bus somewhere near Medicine Hat, along with the a box full of junior hockey scouting reports and Kevin Devine's crushed coffee cup.

Full confession is I was extremely high on Byram in his draft year. I was also hyper-focused on Canada's COVID 2020/21 world junior team. It was one of my favourite teams of all time and I probably shouldn't be surprised they lost in the final because that's how my fandom rolls. Byram cemented my high opinion of him there as the captain and best defenceman in the tournament, going +13 in 7 games. I don't know if he was on for a goal against the entire tourney. I was extremely high on him in his cup run. And every time I watched him since, prior to Buffalo to picking him up, I've never seen anything to make me second-guess my opinion that he was going to be a good one. He's no Dahlin, but he's like Dahlin in the sense that he is all-in. He competes both ways and he goes for it hard both ways and he makes plays. The player I watched in Buffalo reminded me of Dahlin under Krueger; a kid who was second-guessing himself and thinking too much. I don't often go out on a limb like this, but I think Lindy is going to be perfect for him. He's going set his boundaries and tell him to for it within them. And Byram will respond He's got game and he will find it. I'll be surprised if it doesn't happen this year.

Unless my math continues to be bad, it worked out to being outshot about 19.5 to 17 per game. With Casey we outshot the opposition about 13.5 to 13.

Nope. That's my bad math. Still better, but negligibly. You know me too well. My red flag is definitely hyperbole. 😁 But I'm reading the answer my initial question is that you think he's one of our worst players mostly because of shot attempts?

The team went 9-8-1 with Byram, roughly a 95-point pace, or better than it did with Casey, so trading one of our best players for one of our worst didn't significantly affect team results. What particular thing is it that you and GA seem to be putting so much emphasis on? There must be some analytical metric that was Tweeted out somewhere and got burned into your brains. Since he was acquired, Byram's team rankings over 18 games were: Points: 9, tied for 7th Plus/minus: -1, 14th Shots: 21, 10th Time on Ice: 21:51, 3rd ES TOI: 18:56 3rd Hits: 34, 6th Blocked shots: 29 3rd Shot attempt percentage 46.5, 15th Giveaways: 6 13th Takeaways: 7 8th Penalties drawn: 3 6th Net penalties: -2 15th He was 7th in PP ice time and was on the ice for 3 PP goals He was 10th in SH ice time and wasn't on the ice for a goal against while killing a penalty Those certainly aren't the counting stats (all from NHL.com) of "probably our worst player." i pulled out his evolving Hockey numbers and his expected goals against there aren't good, but they're outweighed by his expected goals for. https://evolving-hockey.com/stats/players/?_inputs_&player="Bowen Byram" I know Ive seem some chart overflowing with red at some point, but I haven't been able to pull it up. It has to be pretty awful and pretty broad to back up the worst player on the team claim in the context of his regular numbers.

I so desperately want the team to justify jumping on his bandwagon. i want Malenstyn slamming guys through the end boards, UPL stoning Marner on a breakaway up a goal in the 3rd period, Krebs sticking Marchand after the whistle, Lindy up on the boards screaming at Jon Cooper, and Quinn sniping one from the left circle to tie things up with the goalie pulled. A year ago Vancouver fandom around here was a morgue, an absolute suicide watch. It was impossible not to be jealous as the team turned the fan base around. I want to be that guy. I just want the Sabres to be fun.

Aside from a few of the usual wedding/birth announcements, it’s been pretty quiet on the social media front. The Swiss camp where Power and Mule joined the Euros seemed to be the only noteworthy thing: the team seemed to have kept a pretty low profile over the summer. Vacation photos were sparse. Public events seemed kept to minimum. The new guys only did their required team zoom calls and I can’t recall a single holdover player giving an interview anywhere. Not even a Risto-style workout video to be found. I’d like that to mean they’ve been all business and focused on getting better. If that’s the case, leadership should be bringing the guys together relatively soon.

We’re about a month away from training camp, and if the past week is any indication, NHL GMs are back at work. Im wondering if anyone has heard or seen any news about players getting back to town, or skating together yet? Really curious about where their heads are as they approach the new season, after maybe being a little too full of themselves last year.

If Lindy is running his top PP out for 90 seconds each penalty, I really hope Thompson, Quinn, Byram and Dahlin are 4 of the guys on it. The unit desperately needs a left-handed pass/shoot/move option opposite Tage and Bo has that skill set.

Agreed, but the Avs already knew of the Sabres interest in Byram. Adams made it clear they had inquired about him going back to the Eichel trade.

And as Byram’s biggest defender around here, I’m not going to argue this point. It’s what I saw too, at least after the first 5 games or so. I don’t think it was a coincidence that his struggles happened not when he first arrived and was just playing, but later when he was trying to learn and adapt to Granato’s system. I’m choosing to give more weight to his talent and his overall body of work and crossing my fingers a training camp under Ruff will address that. He wasn’t drafted with a reputation for poor defence and that wasn’t his reputation in Colorado.

Either that or, as the earlier quote implies, they identified targets to fix their 2C hole, called Adams, and were told “I’d consider trading him, but only under these conditions.” Either way, it’s a far cry from Adams deciding he wasn’t going to re-sign Casey and was determined to dump him on the highest bidder.

Also, indications are that the Avs came looking for Casey, not that the Sabres were shopping him to the highest bidder. The Athletic’s Pierre Lebrun reported this conversation with the Avs GM: The Ryan Johansen experiment was a disaster, but credit to general manager Chris MacFarland for not being stubborn about it and fixing that mistake in-season. “It wasn’t working,” MacFarland told me on March 9, the day after the trade deadline, of the Johansen experiment. “And the 2C spot demanded attention to try and find a solution.” “The Sabres weren’t going to move Mittelstadt for picks or for an older player, and from our standpoint, we know how good Bo is, how good of a person he is, and if it wasn’t for (Devon) Toews and Makar, he would be a top-pairing guy, and would be on a lot of teams.” “But we weren’t going to move Bo for a 30-year-old center on an expiring deal, or a 30-year-old defenseman. It had to be a very specific situation,” added the Avs GM. “It had to be for a young, controllable center. This doesn’t completely contradict your take, but it certainly doesn’t support it. Maybe there are things not being said here. Maybe McFarland is lying, or Adams lied to McFarland, but until other information surfaces, I don’t think we’re going to get much closer to what really went down than this.

Roster-wise, Montreal is in a pretty good position to put Laine in a position to succeed and it doesn't really cost them anything but money. I like this deal for both teams.

I don’t think personnel is going to be an issue. Dahlin and Tage are back and they are guys you build a PP around. Tuch, Cozens, Peterka, Power and Benson were 2, 5, 6, 8, 10 in PP ice time and all have the ability to contribute. Skinner is the only guy gone from the first unit. In my view he was the unit’s weakest link because of poor passing and give and go skills, and his inability to screen goalies, tip pucks and score from distance. As far as I’m concerned, Quinn can score from in tight as well as Skinner can, and is a huge upgrade in the other areas of PP play. Casey was 7th in PP time and Okposo 9th. Byram and Zucker may be better respectively in their slots. The issue last year wasn’t personnel, it was deployment, and that’s what needs to be fixed.